(FWRG) First Watch Restaurant - Ratings and Ratios
Breakfast,Brunch,Fresh,Healthy,Coffee
FWRG EPS (Earnings per Share)
FWRG Revenue
Description: FWRG First Watch Restaurant August 26, 2025
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (NASDAQ:FWRG) is a US-based restaurant company operating in the casual dining segment. To evaluate its investment potential, we need to deconstruct its financial performance and key drivers.
The companys yearly Income Tax Expense is a critical aspect to analyze. Income Tax Expense can significantly impact a companys net income, and its trend can indicate changes in profitability or tax strategies. A thorough examination of this metric can reveal insights into FWRGs operational efficiency and tax management.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for FWRG include same-store sales growth, average unit volume (AUV), and menu pricing power. These metrics are crucial in understanding the companys revenue growth and profitability. Additionally, metrics like labor costs as a percentage of sales, food costs, and operating margins provide insights into the companys cost structure and ability to maintain profitability.
Economic drivers for FWRG include consumer spending habits, competition in the casual dining segment, and macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment rates. The companys ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, maintain a competitive edge, and navigate economic fluctuations will be crucial in driving its long-term success.
To further assess FWRGs investment potential, we can analyze its valuation multiples, such as the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio, in comparison to its peers. A thorough analysis of these metrics can help identify whether the company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its industry.
By examining FWRGs financial performance, KPIs, and key economic drivers, we can develop a comprehensive understanding of the companys strengths, weaknesses, and growth prospects, ultimately informing a data-driven investment decision.
FWRG Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 1,006m |
| Sub-Industry | Restaurants |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-10-01 |
FWRG Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -7.11% |
| Fundamental | 46.2% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -17.7% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.64 of 5 |
FWRG Dividends
Currently no dividends paidFWRG Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -29.4% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -53.8% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 30.7% |
| CAGR 5y | 3.35% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.07 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 0.18 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.73 |
| Alpha | -17.01 |
| Beta | 0.873 |
| Volatility | 49.53% |
| Current Volume | 3372.7k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1018.2k |
| Stop Loss | 16.3 (-5.5%) |
| Signal | 1.20 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (5.44m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 66.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.61pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -10.44% (prev -5.33%; Δ -5.11pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 118.3m > Net Income 5.44m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (939.6m) to EBITDA (79.2m) ratio: 11.86 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.27 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (62.6m) change vs 12m ago 0.18% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 34.62% (prev 18.63%; Δ 15.99pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 71.00% (prev 67.16%; Δ 3.84pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.97 (EBITDA TTM 79.2m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.55
| (A) -0.07 = (Total Current Assets 42.9m - Total Current Liabilities 158.3m) / Total Assets 1.68b |
| (B) -0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -52.5m / Total Assets 1.68b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 13.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.56b |
| (D) -0.05 = Book Value of Equity -53.1m / Total Liabilities 1.07b |
| Total Rating: -0.55 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.24
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.51% = -0.76 |
| 3. FCF Margin -2.66% = -1.00 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.59 = 1.35 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 11.86 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.86)% = -4.82 |
| 7. RoE 0.91% = 0.08 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 97.57% = 7.32 |
| 9. EPS Trend -48.36% = -2.42 |
What is the price of FWRG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.55%, over one month by +8.84%, over three months by -8.44% and over the past year by -5.53%.
Is First Watch Restaurant a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of FWRG is around 16.00 USD . This means that FWRG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -7.19%.
Is FWRG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FWRG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.3 | 29.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.3 | 29.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.3 | 0.1% |
FWRG Fundamental Data Overview November 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 274.8333
P/E Forward = 114.9425
P/S = 0.9106
P/B = 1.6156
Beta = 0.873
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 13.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 79.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 250.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 79.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 958.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 939.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.95b USD (1.01b + Debt 958.8m - CCE 19.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.97 (Ebit TTM 13.6m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
FCF Yield = -1.51% (FCF TTM -29.4m / Enterprise Value 1.95b)
FCF Margin = -2.66% (FCF TTM -29.4m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = 0.49% (Net Income TTM 5.44m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 34.62% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 722.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.38% (prev 76.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 1.95b / Total Assets 1.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 4.00m / Debt 958.8m)
Taxrate = 41.11% (1.47m / 3.58m)
NOPAT = 8.01m (EBIT 13.6m * (1 - 41.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 42.9m / Total Current Liabilities 158.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.59 (Debt 958.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 601.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.86 (Net Debt 939.6m / EBITDA 79.2m)
Debt / FCF = -31.91 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 939.6m / FCF TTM -29.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 595.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.32% (Net Income 5.44m / Total Assets 1.68b)
RoE = 0.91% (Net Income TTM 5.44m / Total Stockholder Equity 595.5m)
RoCE = 1.61% (EBIT 13.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 595.5m + L.T.Debt 250.0m))
RoIC = 0.99% (NOPAT 8.01m / Invested Capital 810.4m)
WACC = 4.85% (E(1.01b)/V(1.97b) * Re(9.23%) + D(958.8m)/V(1.97b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.41)))
Discount Rate = 9.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.72%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -29.4m)
EPS Correlation: -48.36 | EPS CAGR: 37.66% | SUE: -2.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.57 | Revenue CAGR: 19.91% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for FWRG Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle