Overview Dividends

(FWRG) First Watch Restaurant - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US33748L1017

Breakfast, Brunch, Lunch, Coffee, Juice

Restaurants
Market Cap in USD: 1,094m
IPO / Inception: 2021-10-01
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -21.2%

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid
Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility 56.9%
Value at Risk 5%th 84.8%
Relative Tail Risk -9.43%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio 0.05
Alpha -22.00
CAGR/Max DD 0.13
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.412
Beta 1.190
Beta Downside 1.089
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 47.88%
Mean DD 19.49%
Median DD 18.99%

Description: FWRG First Watch Restaurant November 17, 2025

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) operates and franchises its namesake casual-dining concept across the United States. The company, originally incorporated as AI Fresh Super Holdco, rebranded to its current name in December 2019 and traces its roots to a 1983 founding in Bradenton, Florida.

Key operating metrics that analysts watch include same-store sales growth (historically 5-7% YoY in 2023), average check size (≈ $19-$21), and the franchise-to-company-owned split (about 70% franchised locations). The brand’s performance is sensitive to discretionary consumer spending, labor-cost inflation, and the broader “brunch-first” trend that has driven higher traffic during mid-day hours.

For a deeper quantitative view, you may want to explore ValueRay’s detailed financial model for FWRG.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0

Net Income (3.55m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 70.2m TTM)
FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.53pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue -11.38% (prev -6.12%; Δ -5.26pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 130.4m > Net Income 3.55m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (962.2m) to EBITDA (87.0m) ratio: 11.06 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 0.25 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (62.8m) change vs 12m ago 1.59% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 33.73% (prev 21.27%; Δ 12.47pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 72.97% (prev 67.16%; Δ 5.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 1.12 (EBITDA TTM 87.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -0.58

(A) -0.08 = (Total Current Assets 43.7m - Total Current Liabilities 176.8m) / Total Assets 1.72b
(B) -0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -49.6m / Total Assets 1.72b
(C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 16.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.60b
(D) -0.04 = Book Value of Equity -50.1m / Total Liabilities 1.11b
Total Rating: -0.58 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 48.01

1. Piotroski 4.0pt
2. FCF Yield -1.52%
3. FCF Margin -2.67%
4. Debt/Equity 1.62
5. Debt/Ebitda 11.06
6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.52)%
7. RoE 0.59%
8. Rev. Trend 98.86%
9. EPS Trend 2.79%

What is the price of FWRG shares?

As of December 08, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 17.70 with a total of 999,688 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.63%, over one month by -1.34%, over three months by -4.79% and over the past year by -9.83%.

Is FWRG a buy, sell or hold?

First Watch Restaurant has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FWRG.
  • Strong Buy: 8
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the FWRG price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 22.4 26.3%
Analysts Target Price 22.4 26.3%
ValueRay Target Price 17.8 0.3%

FWRG Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025

Market Cap USD = 1.09b (1.09b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 224.125
P/E Forward = 114.9425
P/S = 0.9358
P/B = 1.826
Beta = 0.879
Revenue TTM = 1.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 87.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 251.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 86.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 982.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 962.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.06b USD (1.09b + Debt 982.9m - CCE 20.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.12 (Ebit TTM 16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 15.1m)
FCF Yield = -1.52% (FCF TTM -31.2m / Enterprise Value 2.06b)
FCF Margin = -2.67% (FCF TTM -31.2m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Net Margin = 0.30% (Net Income TTM 3.55m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Gross Margin = 33.73% ((Revenue TTM 1.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 775.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.48% (prev 19.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 2.06b / Total Assets 1.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 4.57m / Debt 982.9m)
Taxrate = 47.29% (2.68m / 5.67m)
NOPAT = 8.91m (EBIT 16.9m * (1 - 47.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 43.7m / Total Current Liabilities 176.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.62 (Debt 982.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 607.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.06 (Net Debt 962.2m / EBITDA 87.0m)
Debt / FCF = -30.86 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 962.2m / FCF TTM -31.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 600.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.21% (Net Income 3.55m / Total Assets 1.72b)
RoE = 0.59% (Net Income TTM 3.55m / Total Stockholder Equity 600.1m)
RoCE = 1.99% (EBIT 16.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 600.1m + L.T.Debt 251.0m))
RoIC = 1.07% (NOPAT 8.91m / Invested Capital 831.6m)
WACC = 5.59% (E(1.09b)/V(2.08b) * Re(10.40%) + D(982.9m)/V(2.08b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.47)))
Discount Rate = 10.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.81%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -31.2m)
EPS Correlation: 2.79 | EPS CAGR: 125.2% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.86 | Revenue CAGR: 19.38% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+82.0% | Growth Revenue=+15.3%

Additional Sources for FWRG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle