FWRG Stock Analysis: First Watch Restaurant | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 807m USD | 12M Return: -30.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.6M
EPS Trend: -47.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 4.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name across the United States, using a hybrid model that combines company-operated locations with franchised units. The company was originally founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida. It was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. before adopting its current name in December 2019, and completed its initial public offering on NASDAQ in October 2021.
The company sits within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS Sub Industry: Restaurants), a segment where operators typically pursue growth through a mix of new unit openings, franchising, and same-store sales performance. First Watch is a daytime-focused dining concept centered on breakfast, brunch, and lunch, which differentiates it from broader full-service casual dining peers that generate revenue across all dayparts.
- Same-restaurant sales growth decelerates amid weakened consumer dining spend
- New unit expansion drives revenue as company opens restaurants across new markets
- Egg and dairy input cost inflation pressures restaurant-level margins
| Net Income: 17.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.91% < 20% (prev -9.24%; Δ -0.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 140.2m > Net Income 17.6m |
| Net Debt (1.76b) to EBITDA (108.2m): 16.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.2m) vs 12m ago 0.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.23% > 18% (prev 35.58%; Δ -17.35% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.62% > 50% (prev 68.37%; Δ 8.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 28.4m / Interest Expense TTM 18.1m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 51.6m - Total Current Liabilities 177.5m) / Total Assets 1.77b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -37.1m / Total Assets 1.77b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 28.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.66b) |
| D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 627.7m / Total Liabilities 1.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.16 = B |
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 6.03m/5.96m, Revenue 1.27b/1.06b) |
| GMI: 1.95 (GM 35.58% / 18.23%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 1.27b / 1.06b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 17.6m - CFO 140.2m) / TA 1.77b) |
| Beneish M = -2.21 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.47 with a total of 672,028 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.52%, over one month by +21.54%, over three months by +7.04% and over the past year by -30.41%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.20 (which is 10.2% or 2 ATR below the current price).
First Watch Restaurant has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FWRG.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.5 | 56% |
P/E Trailing = 46.75
P/E Forward = 63.6943
P/S = 0.6348
P/B = 1.3102
Revenue TTM = 1.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 28.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 108.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 268.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 748.6m
Net Debt = 1.76b USD (calculated: Debt 1.78b - CCE 23.6m)
Enterprise Value = 2.56b USD (806.9m + Debt 1.78b - CCE 23.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.56 (Ebit TTM 28.4m / Interest Expense TTM 18.1m)
EV/FCF = -270.8x (Enterprise Value 2.56b / FCF TTM -9.46m)
FCF Yield = -0.37% (FCF TTM -9.46m / Enterprise Value 2.56b)
FCF Margin = -0.74% (FCF TTM -9.46m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Net Margin = 1.38% (Net Income TTM 17.6m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Gross Margin = 18.23% ((Revenue TTM 1.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.77% (prev 19.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 2.56b / Total Assets 1.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 18.1m / Debt 1.78b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 22.4m (EBIT 28.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.29 (Total Current Assets 51.6m / Total Current Liabilities 177.5m)
Debt / Equity = 2.83 (Debt 1.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 627.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.22 (Net Debt 1.76b / EBITDA 108.2m)
Debt / FCF = -185.5 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 1.76b / FCF TTM -9.46m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 615.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.06% (Net Income 17.6m / Total Assets 1.77b)
RoE = 2.85% (Net Income TTM 17.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 615.6m)
RoCE = 3.21% (EBIT 28.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 615.6m + L.T.Debt 268.7m))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 22.4m / Invested Capital 1.66b)
WACC = 3.26% (E(806.9m)/V(2.59b) * Re(8.67%) + D(1.78b)/V(2.59b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 28.54 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -9.46m)
EPS Correlation: -47.16 | EPS CAGR: -21.73% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.65 | Revenue CAGR: 17.67% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-1.22% | Revisions=-70% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+1.95% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-2.82% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-57.1% | GrowthRev=+13.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+1.28% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+53.0% | GrowthRev=+12.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=5, down=18)