(FWRG) First Watch Restaurant - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US33748L1017

Stock: Breakfast, Brunch, Lunch, Coffee, Juice

Total Rating 22

Risk 64

Buy Signal 0.29

Restaurants » Restaurants
Age: 4.4y

Market Cap: 1,028m
Avg Trading Vol: 19.8M USD

ATR: 3.71%
Peers RS (IBD): 37.50

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -36.28%
EPS Trend: -27.2%

Last SUE: -3.13
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 19.38%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%

Last SUE: 2.11
Qual. Beats: 1

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	51.6%
Relative Tail Risk	-9.00%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.18
Alpha	-36.10

Character TTM
Beta	1.206
Beta Downside	1.033

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	47.88%
CAGR/Max DD	0.10

Description: FWRG First Watch Restaurant January 20, 2026

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) operates and franchises casual-dining cafés under the First Watch brand across the United States. The company, originally incorporated as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc., rebranded to its current name in December 2019. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Bradenton, Florida, First Watch focuses on breakfast-and-brunch concepts that emphasize fresh, made-to-order menu items.

Key performance indicators that analysts typically monitor for First Watch include same-store sales growth (historically ranging 5-10% YoY pre-COVID), average check size (≈ $15-$18), and unit expansion (≈ 30-40 new locations per year, with a roughly 70/30 split between company-owned and franchised units). The chain’s performance is sensitive to broader discretionary-spending trends, labor-cost inflation, and commodity price volatility-factors that have been amplified by post-pandemic consumer behavior shifts and rising minimum-wage pressures.

For a deeper, data-driven view of First Watch’s valuation metrics and peer comparisons, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0

Net Income: 3.55m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.53 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -11.38% < 20% (prev -6.12%; Δ -5.26% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 130.4m > Net Income 3.55m
Net Debt (962.2m) to EBITDA (87.0m): 11.06 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (62.8m) vs 12m ago 1.59% < -2%
Gross Margin: 33.73% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 3352 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 72.97% > 50% (prev 67.16%; Δ 5.81% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.12 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 87.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.1m)

Altman Z'' -0.58

A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 43.7m - Total Current Liabilities 176.8m) / Total Assets 1.72b
B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -49.6m / Total Assets 1.72b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 16.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.60b)
D: -0.04 (Book Value of Equity -50.1m / Total Liabilities 1.11b)
Altman-Z'' Score: -0.58 = B

Beneish M -3.67

DSRI: 0.63 (Receivables 3.65m/4.93m, Revenue 1.17b/997.3m)
GMI: 0.63 (GM 33.73% / 21.27%)
AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.38)
SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 1.17b / 997.3m)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.55m - CFO 130.4m) / TA 1.72b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.67 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA

What is the price of FWRG shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.54 with a total of 2,020,242 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.69%, over one month by +10.31%, over three months by +1.74% and over the past year by -18.00%.

Is FWRG a buy, sell or hold?

First Watch Restaurant has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FWRG.

StrongBuy: 8
Buy: 2
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the FWRG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	22.2	26.5%
Analysts Target Price	22.2	26.5%
ValueRay Target Price	17.5	-0.4%

FWRG Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026

P/E Trailing = 210.625
P/E Forward = 114.9425
P/S = 0.8794
P/B = 1.6934
Revenue TTM = 1.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 87.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 251.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 86.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 982.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 962.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.99b USD (1.03b + Debt 982.9m - CCE 20.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.12 (Ebit TTM 16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 15.1m)
EV/FCF = -63.83x (Enterprise Value 1.99b / FCF TTM -31.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.57% (FCF TTM -31.2m / Enterprise Value 1.99b)
FCF Margin = -2.67% (FCF TTM -31.2m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Net Margin = 0.30% (Net Income TTM 3.55m / Revenue TTM 1.17b)
Gross Margin = 33.73% ((Revenue TTM 1.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 775.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.48% (prev 19.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 1.99b / Total Assets 1.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 4.57m / Debt 982.9m)
Taxrate = 47.29% (2.68m / 5.67m)
NOPAT = 8.91m (EBIT 16.9m * (1 - 47.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 43.7m / Total Current Liabilities 176.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.62 (Debt 982.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 607.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.06 (Net Debt 962.2m / EBITDA 87.0m)
Debt / FCF = -30.86 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 962.2m / FCF TTM -31.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 600.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.22% (Net Income 3.55m / Total Assets 1.72b)
RoE = 0.59% (Net Income TTM 3.55m / Total Stockholder Equity 600.1m)
RoCE = 1.99% (EBIT 16.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 600.1m + L.T.Debt 251.0m))
RoIC = 1.07% (NOPAT 8.91m / Invested Capital 831.6m)
WACC = 5.42% (E(1.03b)/V(2.01b) * Re(10.36%) + D(982.9m)/V(2.01b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.47)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.81%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -31.2m)
EPS Correlation: -27.23 | EPS CAGR: -36.28% | SUE: -3.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.86 | Revenue CAGR: 19.38% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=-0.008 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+108.7% | Growth Revenue=+15.2%

Additional Sources for FWRG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle