(FWRG) First Watch Restaurant - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 676m USD | Total Return: -29.3% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 14.6M
EPS Trend: -44.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (6.7) with thin interest coverage (1.6)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Altman Z'' -0.45 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is a Florida-based company that operates and franchises casual dining restaurants across the United States. Founded in 1983, the firm specializes in the Daytime Dining segment, focusing exclusively on breakfast, brunch, and lunch service hours.
The company utilizes a business model characterized by a single-shift staffing structure, which typically results in lower labor complexity compared to full-day restaurant operations. Operating within the fragmented restaurant sector, First Watch competes primarily on food quality and a menu that emphasizes fresh ingredients prepared to order. Investors may find additional performance metrics and peer comparisons by exploring ValueRay.
- Aggressive corporate-owned restaurant expansion strategy accelerates top-line revenue growth
- Daytime-only operating model minimizes labor costs and optimizes staffing efficiency
- High exposure to Florida market increases vulnerability to regional economic cycles
- Sticky customer traffic patterns sustain same-store sales growth despite inflationary pressure
- Franchise acquisition strategy shifts margin profile toward company-operated restaurant performance
| Net Income: 17.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.91% < 20% (prev -9.24%; Δ -0.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 140.2m > Net Income 17.6m |
| Net Debt (738.4m) to EBITDA (109.6m): 6.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.2m) vs 12m ago 0.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.23% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 1.79k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.62% > 50% (prev 68.37%; Δ 8.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 109.6m / Interest Expense TTM 18.1m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 51.6m - Total Current Liabilities 177.5m) / Total Assets 1.77b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -37.1m / Total Assets 1.77b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 29.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.66b) |
| D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -37.0m / Total Liabilities 1.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.45 = B |
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 6.03m/5.96m, Revenue 1.27b/1.06b) |
| GMI: 1.95 (GM 18.23% / 35.58%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 1.27b / 1.06b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 17.6m - CFO 140.2m) / TA 1.77b) |
| Beneish M = -2.27 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of May 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.34 with a total of 828,932 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.32%,
over one month by -13.48%,
over three months by -6.74% and
over the past year by -29.29%.
First Watch Restaurant has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FWRG.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | 67.5% |
P/E Forward = 63.6943
P/S = 0.5315
P/B = 1.0774
Revenue TTM = 1.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 29.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 109.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 268.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 761.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 748.6m already included)
Net Debt = 738.4m USD (calculated: Debt 761.9m - CCE 23.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.41b USD (675.6m + Debt 761.9m - CCE 23.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.64 (Ebit TTM 29.7m / Interest Expense TTM 18.1m)
EV/FCF = -149.4x (Enterprise Value 1.41b / FCF TTM -9.46m)
FCF Yield = -0.67% (FCF TTM -9.46m / Enterprise Value 1.41b)
FCF Margin = -0.74% (FCF TTM -9.46m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Net Margin = 1.38% (Net Income TTM 17.6m / Revenue TTM 1.27b)
Gross Margin = 18.23% ((Revenue TTM 1.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.77% (prev 19.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 1.41b / Total Assets 1.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.38% (Interest Expense 18.1m / Debt 761.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 23.5m (EBIT 29.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.29 (Total Current Assets 51.6m / Total Current Liabilities 177.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 761.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 627.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.74 (Net Debt 738.4m / EBITDA 109.6m)
Debt / FCF = -78.02 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 738.4m / FCF TTM -9.46m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 615.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.06% (Net Income 17.6m / Total Assets 1.77b)
RoE = 2.69% (Net Income TTM 17.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 3.23% (EBIT 29.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 268.7m))
RoIC = 1.39% (NOPAT 23.5m / Invested Capital 1.69b)
WACC = 5.02% (E(675.6m)/V(1.44b) * Re(8.57%) + D(761.9m)/V(1.44b) * Rd(2.38%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 20.0 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -9.46m)
EPS Correlation: -44.57 | EPS CAGR: -27.78% | SUE: -0.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.65 | Revenue CAGR: 17.67% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-35.31% | Revisions=-64% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-6.60% | Revisions=-11% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-5.35% | Revisions=-11% | GrowthEPS=-55.5% | GrowthRev=+13.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-11.80% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+47.8% | GrowthRev=+12.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -64%