GBDC Stock Analysis: Golub Capital BDC | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.384m USD | 12M Return: -4.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.2M
EPS Trend: -58.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 86.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is an externally managed, non-diversified business development company (BDC) that primarily invests in debt and minority equity of U.S. middle-market companies, most of which are backed by private equity sponsors. Its investment focus spans a broad range of industries, including consumer services, healthcare, insurance, IT services, restaurants and leisure, and specialty retail, using structures such as first lien, one-stop/unitranche, second lien, subordinated, and mezzanine loans, along with equity and warrants.
As a BDC regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, GBDC operates under a tax structure that generally requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income to shareholders, which typically results in dividend yields that are a meaningful component of investor returns. Its externally managed structure means investment decisions and portfolio management are handled by an affiliated investment adviser (Golub Capital), rather than by internal employees.
- Floating-rate portfolio benefits from Fed rate increases
- Dividend coverage improves as net investment income rises
- Private credit competition compresses new lending spreads
| Net Income: 204.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -98.07% < 20% (prev 18.13%; Δ -116.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 313.3m > Net Income 204.9m |
| Net Debt (4.57b) to EBITDA (436.0m): 10.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (262.7m) vs 12m ago -1.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.36% > 18% (prev 74.73%; Δ 0.62% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.71% > 50% (prev 7.67%; Δ 1.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 434.9m / Interest Expense TTM 266.0m) |
| A: -0.09 (Total Current Assets 202.4m - Total Current Liabilities 949.1m) / Total Assets 8.53b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -219.6m / Total Assets 8.53b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 434.9m / Avg Total Assets 8.74b) |
| D: 0.78 (Book Value of Equity 3.75b / Total Liabilities 4.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.50 = B |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.92 with a total of 780,013 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.54%, over one month by +0.29%, over three months by +4.24% and over the past year by -4.68%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.50 (which is 3.3% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Golub Capital BDC has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GBDC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | 6.4% |
P/E Trailing = 16.8701
P/E Forward = 10.1112
P/S = 4.0704
P/B = 0.9028
P/EG = 1.395
Revenue TTM = 761.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 434.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 436.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.75b USD (estimated: total debt 4.70b - short term 949.1m)
Short Term Debt = 949.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.57b USD (calculated: Debt 4.70b - CCE 128.4m)
Enterprise Value = 7.96b USD (3.38b + Debt 4.70b - CCE 128.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.64 (Ebit TTM 434.9m / Interest Expense TTM 266.0m)
EV/FCF = 25.40x (Enterprise Value 7.96b / FCF TTM 313.3m)
FCF Yield = 3.94% (FCF TTM 313.3m / Enterprise Value 7.96b)
FCF Margin = 41.15% (FCF TTM 313.3m / Revenue TTM 761.4m)
Net Margin = 26.91% (Net Income TTM 204.9m / Revenue TTM 761.4m)
Gross Margin = 75.36% ((Revenue TTM 761.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 187.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.60% (prev 80.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 7.96b / Total Assets 8.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.66% (Interest Expense 266.0m / Debt 4.70b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 343.6m (EBIT 434.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 202.4m / Total Current Liabilities 949.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.25 (Debt 4.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.49 (Net Debt 4.57b / EBITDA 436.0m)
Debt / FCF = 14.60 (Net Debt 4.57b / FCF TTM 313.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.34% (Net Income 204.9m / Total Assets 8.53b)
RoE = 5.24% (Net Income TTM 204.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.91b)
RoCE = 5.68% (EBIT 434.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.91b + L.T.Debt 3.75b))
RoIC = 4.05% (NOPAT 343.6m / Invested Capital 8.49b)
WACC = 5.86% (E(3.38b)/V(8.09b) * Re(7.79%) + D(4.70b)/V(8.09b) * Rd(5.66%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 46.67 | Cagr: 21.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈313.3m ; Y1≈314.6m ; Y5≈333.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.34 (EV 5.18b - Net Debt 4.57b = Equity 609.9m / Shares 260.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -58.21 | EPS CAGR: -7.87% | SUE: -1.25 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 86.51 | Revenue CAGR: 17.72% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=-6.25% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-3.89% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-9.3% | GrowthRev=-11.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=-2.65% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-7.2% | GrowthRev=-4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67% (up=1, down=11)