GBDC Stock Analysis: Golub Capital BDC | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.396m USD | 12M Return: -0.5% | US38173M1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.3M
EPS Trend: -89.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 77.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is an externally managed, non-diversified business development company (BDC) that primarily invests in debt and minority equity of U.S. middle-market companies, most of which are backed by private equity sponsors. Its investment focus spans a broad range of industries, including consumer services, healthcare, insurance, IT services, restaurants and leisure, and specialty retail, using structures such as first lien, one-stop/unitranche, second lien, subordinated, and mezzanine loans, along with equity and warrants.
As a BDC regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, GBDC operates under a tax structure that generally requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income to shareholders, which typically results in dividend yields that are a meaningful component of investor returns. Its externally managed structure means investment decisions and portfolio management are handled by an affiliated investment adviser (Golub Capital), rather than by internal employees.
- Floating-rate portfolio benefits from Fed rate increases
- Dividend coverage improves as net investment income rises
- Private credit competition compresses new lending spreads
| Net Income: 146.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -115.3% < 20% (prev 19.27%; Δ -134.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 588.2m > Net Income 146.7m |
| Net Debt (4.52b) to EBITDA (397.8m): 11.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (260.4m) vs 12m ago -2.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.39% > 18% (prev 81.53%; Δ -7.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.14% > 50% (prev 9.02%; Δ -0.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.55 > 6 (EBIT TTM 396.7m / Interest Expense TTM 256.3m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 124.5m - Total Current Liabilities 949.1m) / Total Assets 8.34b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -248.4m / Total Assets 8.34b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 396.7m / Avg Total Assets 8.79b) |
| D: 0.80 (Book Value of Equity 3.70b / Total Liabilities 4.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.40 = B |
As of August 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.17 with a total of 1,768,892 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.65%, over one month by +3.29%, over three months by +2.70% and over the past year by -0.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.60 (which is 4.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Golub Capital BDC has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GBDC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | 4.4% |
P/E Trailing = 16.987
P/E Forward = 9.98
P/S = 4.2553
P/B = 0.8917
P/EG = 1.395
Revenue TTM = 715.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 396.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 397.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 949.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 4.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.52b USD (calculated: Debt 4.54b - CCE 13.0m)
Enterprise Value = 7.92b USD (3.40b + Debt 4.54b - CCE 13.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 396.7m / Interest Expense TTM 256.3m)
EV/FCF = 8.61x (Enterprise Value 7.92b / FCF TTM 919.6m)
FCF Yield = 11.61% (FCF TTM 919.6m / Enterprise Value 7.92b)
FCF Margin = 128.6% (FCF TTM 919.6m / Revenue TTM 715.2m)
Net Margin = 20.51% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Revenue TTM 715.2m)
Gross Margin = 74.39% ((Revenue TTM 715.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 183.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.34% (prev 77.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 7.92b / Total Assets 8.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.65% (Interest Expense 256.3m / Debt 4.54b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 313.4m (EBIT 396.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 124.5m / Total Current Liabilities 949.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 4.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.37 (Net Debt 4.52b / EBITDA 397.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.92 (Net Debt 4.52b / FCF TTM 919.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.67% (Net Income 146.7m / Total Assets 8.34b)
RoE = 3.82% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.84b)
RoCE = 5.37% (EBIT 396.7m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 8.34b - Current Liab 949.1m))
RoIC = 3.80% (NOPAT 313.4m / Invested Capital 8.24b)
WACC = 5.83% (E(3.40b)/V(7.93b) * Re(7.66%) + D(4.54b)/V(7.93b) * Rd(5.65%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.64 | Cagr: 20.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈919.6m ; Y1≈923.4m ; Y5≈978.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 41.17 (EV 15.2b - Net Debt 4.52b = Equity 10.7b / Shares 259.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -89.21 | EPS CAGR: -12.43% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.09 | Revenue CAGR: 12.37% | SUE: -0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-9.1% | GrowthRev=-11.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-7.3% | GrowthRev=-3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)