GBDC Stock Analysis: Golub Capital BDC | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.235m USD | 12M Return: 1.5% | US38173M1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.7M
EPS Trend: -89.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 77.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is a business development company (BDC) that functions as an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified investment vehicle focused on private debt. It invests primarily in debt and minority equity of U.S. middle-market companies, most of which are backed by private equity sponsors. The company is headquartered in the United States and has been publicly traded since its April 2010 IPO.
GBDCs investment portfolio spans a diverse range of industries, including diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, healthcare equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services, and specialty retail. The company primarily structures its investments as first lien senior debt, one-stop/unitranche loans, second lien debt, and subordinated or mezzanine loans, often alongside equity co-investments such as warrants.
As a BDC, GBDC is regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is generally required to distribute a significant portion of its taxable income to shareholders in order to maintain its tax-advantaged status. The BDC structure is a common vehicle for providing financing to private middle-market businesses, which often lack access to traditional bank financing. Golub Capital, the firms external manager, is one of the largest middle-market lenders in the United States.
- Net interest margin expands on floating-rate loans amid elevated base rates
- Middle-market credit losses rise as non-accruals tick higher
- Direct lending competition pressures spreads on unitranche originations
| Net Income: 146.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -115.3% < 20% (prev 19.27%; Δ -134.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 706.5m > Net Income 146.7m |
| Net Debt (4.52b) to EBITDA (397.8m): 11.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (260.4m) vs 12m ago -2.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.39% > 18% (prev 81.53%; Δ -7.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.14% > 50% (prev 9.02%; Δ -0.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.55 > 6 (EBIT TTM 396.7m / Interest Expense TTM 256.3m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 124.5m - Total Current Liabilities 949.1m) / Total Assets 8.34b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -248.4m / Total Assets 8.34b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 396.7m / Avg Total Assets 8.79b) |
| D: 0.80 (Book Value of Equity 3.70b / Total Liabilities 4.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.40 = B |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.54 with a total of 1,802,059 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.64%, over one month by -0.60%, over three months by -0.91% and over the past year by +1.54%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.10 (which is 3.5% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Golub Capital BDC has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GBDC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.6 | 8.7% |
P/E Trailing = 18.8788
P/E Forward = 9.7656
P/S = 4.0405
P/B = 0.8725
P/EG = 1.395
Revenue TTM = 715.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 396.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 397.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 949.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 4.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.52b USD (calculated: Debt 4.54b - CCE 13.0m)
Enterprise Value = 7.76b USD (3.24b + Debt 4.54b - CCE 13.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 396.7m / Interest Expense TTM 256.3m)
EV/FCF = 10.98x (Enterprise Value 7.76b / FCF TTM 706.5m)
FCF Yield = 9.10% (FCF TTM 706.5m / Enterprise Value 7.76b)
FCF Margin = 98.78% (FCF TTM 706.5m / Revenue TTM 715.2m)
Net Margin = 20.51% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Revenue TTM 715.2m)
Gross Margin = 74.39% ((Revenue TTM 715.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 183.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.34% (prev 77.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 7.76b / Total Assets 8.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.65% (Interest Expense 256.3m / Debt 4.54b)
Taxrate = 0.01% (2.00k / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 396.7m (EBIT 396.7m * (1 - 0.01%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 124.5m / Total Current Liabilities 949.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 4.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.37 (Net Debt 4.52b / EBITDA 397.8m)
Debt / FCF = 6.40 (Net Debt 4.52b / FCF TTM 706.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.67% (Net Income 146.7m / Total Assets 8.34b)
RoE = 3.82% (Net Income TTM 146.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.84b)
RoCE = 5.37% (EBIT 396.7m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 8.34b - Current Liab 949.1m))
RoIC = 4.81% (NOPAT 396.7m / Invested Capital 8.24b)
WACC = 6.47% (E(3.24b)/V(7.77b) * Re(7.62%) + D(4.54b)/V(7.77b) * Rd(5.65%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.64 | Cagr: 20.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈706.5m ; Y1≈709.4m ; Y5≈751.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 27.59 (EV 11.7b - Net Debt 4.52b = Equity 7.16b / Shares 259.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -89.21 | EPS CAGR: -12.43% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.09 | Revenue CAGR: 12.37% | SUE: -0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.37 | Chg30d=+0.49% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-11.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=+0.93% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-7.3% | GrowthRev=-3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=6, down=6)