(GBDC) Golub Capital BDC - Ratings and Ratios
Senior Debt, Unitranche, Mezzanine, Equity
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 10.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.03% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.28% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 104.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 13.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 23.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.33% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.06 |
| Alpha | -9.65 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.501 |
| Beta | 0.643 |
| Beta Downside | 0.736 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 17.01% |
| Mean DD | 4.32% |
| Median DD | 3.76% |
Description: GBDC Golub Capital BDC November 07, 2025
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is an externally-managed, closed-end business development company that focuses on debt and minority-equity investments in U.S. middle-market firms, many of which are backed by private-equity sponsors.
The firm’s portfolio spans diversified consumer services, automotive, healthcare technology, insurance, health-care equipment and supplies, hospitality, IT services, and specialty retail, with a typical investment range of first-lien senior debt, unitranche, second-lien, mezzanine loans, and accompanying warrants.
As of the most recent filing, GBDC reported a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $2.6 billion, a distribution yield near 8 %, and a portfolio composition of about 70 % senior secured debt, 20 % mezzanine/second-lien exposure, and 10 % equity-linked positions; the average loan size is approximately $30 million, supporting companies with median EBITDA of roughly $100 million.
Key macro drivers include the prevailing interest-rate environment-higher rates can boost GBDC’s yield on new debt but also widen credit spreads, potentially increasing default risk-and the continued growth of private-equity capital, which fuels a steady pipeline of sponsor-backed deal flow.
Sector-specific tailwinds, such as the aging U.S. population and rising adoption of digital health solutions, are bolstering demand for healthcare-technology and equipment financing, which together represent a sizable slice of GBDC’s exposure.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of GBDC’s risk-adjusted returns, the ValueRay platform offers a granular view of its portfolio metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (376.6m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 42.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.22pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 18.63% (prev 31.36%; Δ -12.73pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO -113.6m <= Net Income 376.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-100.8m) to EBITDA (449.2m) ratio: -0.22 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 4.41 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (266.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.72% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 75.25% (prev 56.76%; Δ 18.49pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 7.92% (prev 5.46%; Δ 2.46pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.59 (EBITDA TTM 449.2m / Interest Expense TTM 283.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.41
| (A) 0.01 = (Total Current Assets 168.8m - Total Current Liabilities 38.3m) / Total Assets 8.98b |
| (B) -0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -48.8m / Total Assets 8.98b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 449.2m / Avg Total Assets 8.84b |
| (D) -0.01 = Book Value of Equity -48.5m / Total Liabilities 5.00b |
| Total Rating: 0.41 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 54.90
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin -16.21% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.23 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.22 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.58)% |
| 7. RoE 9.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 66.17% |
| 9. EPS Trend 27.82% |
What is the price of GBDC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.93%, over one month by +2.81%, over three months by -1.03% and over the past year by +1.90%.
Is GBDC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GBDC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15 | 5.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 5.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.3 | 21.4% |
GBDC Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Trailing = 9.8881
P/E Forward = 9.4697
P/S = 4.3255
P/B = 0.9275
P/EG = 1.51
Beta = 0.44
Revenue TTM = 700.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 449.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 449.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 4.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -100.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.57b USD (3.77b + Debt 4.90b - CCE 100.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.59 (Ebit TTM 449.2m / Interest Expense TTM 283.1m)
FCF Yield = -1.33% (FCF TTM -113.6m / Enterprise Value 8.57b)
FCF Margin = -16.21% (FCF TTM -113.6m / Revenue TTM 700.6m)
Net Margin = 53.76% (Net Income TTM 376.6m / Revenue TTM 700.6m)
Gross Margin = 75.25% ((Revenue TTM 700.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 173.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 58.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 8.57b / Total Assets 8.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.44% (Interest Expense 70.4m / Debt 4.90b)
Taxrate = -0.16% (negative due to tax credits) (-154.0k / 96.1m)
NOPAT = 449.9m (EBIT 449.2m * (1 - -0.16%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 4.41 (Total Current Assets 168.8m / Total Current Liabilities 38.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 4.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.22 (Net Debt -100.8m / EBITDA 449.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.89 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -100.8m / FCF TTM -113.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.20% (Net Income 376.6m / Total Assets 8.98b)
RoE = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 376.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.01b)
RoCE = 5.02% (EBIT 449.2m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 8.98b - Current Liab 38.3m))
RoIC = 5.03% (NOPAT 449.9m / Invested Capital 8.94b)
WACC = 4.45% (E(3.77b)/V(8.67b) * Re(8.38%) + D(4.90b)/V(8.67b) * Rd(1.44%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 25.30%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -113.6m)
EPS Correlation: 27.82 | EPS CAGR: 0.71% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.17 | Revenue CAGR: 23.15% | SUE: -0.66 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-0.009 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-4.3% | Growth Revenue=-8.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-9.8% | Growth Revenue=-5.7%
Additional Sources for GBDC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle