GCMG Stock Analysis: GCM Grosvenor | NASDAQ

Hedge Funds, Private Equity, Credit Strategies, Real Estate

Total Rating 64

Safety 81

Buy Signal -0.22

Asset Management
Industry Rotation: +2.7

Market Cap: 835M
Avg Turnover: 5.45M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility28.0%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.76%

VaR vs Median3.18%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.34

Rel. Str. IBD75.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group78.9

Character TTM

Beta0.756

Beta Downside0.497

Hurst Exponent0.559

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD31.29%

CAGR/Max DD0.88

CAGR/Mean DD3.17

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 20.01%
EPS Trend: 95.4%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 11.97%
Rev. Trend: 97.4%

Last SUE: 0.23
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.5 years of data

Jan +0.0% 2

Feb -1.2% 22

Mar -3.8% 42

Apr -0.1% 9

May -0.7% 20

Jun -3.4% 10

Jul +0.7% 26

Aug -0.3% 0

Sep +0.3% 15

Oct +0.7% 19

Nov +1.3% 19

Dec +2.6% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: GCMG GCM Grosvenor

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (NASDAQ: GCMG) is a global alternative asset management firm founded in 1971 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company serves a diverse client base that includes pooled investment vehicles, investment companies, high-net-worth individuals, pension and profit-sharing plans, and state or municipal government entities.

The firm invests across multiple alternative asset classes, including hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, credit, and absolute return strategies. Its investment approach spans multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, and commodity-focused portfolios, and includes primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments across stages ranging from early venture to buyouts and distressed debt.

GCM Grosvenor employs both fundamental and quantitative analysis, prefers majority stakes in portfolio companies, and focuses on sectors such as aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. As an alternative asset manager, the firm typically earns revenue through management fees on assets under management combined with performance-based incentive fees, a common structure in the alternative investment industry.

The company went public in November 2020 and operates as a subsidiary of Grosvenor Capital Management Holdings, LLLP, with offices across North America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. It is classified within the Financials sector under the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Private markets fundraising accelerates alternative AUM growth
Fee-related earnings expand on diversified alternatives platform
Capital return continues through buybacks and dividends

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0

Net Income: 44.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.28 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.34 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 15.03% < 20% (prev 17.59%; Δ -2.55% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.29 > 3% & CFO 198.1m > Net Income 44.5m
Net Debt (350.9m) to EBITDA (187.5m): 1.87 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.55 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (203.6m) vs 12m ago 3.69% < -2%
Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin)
Asset Turnover: 85.97% > 50% (prev 82.40%; Δ 3.57% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 183.3m / Interest Expense TTM 15.5m)

Altman Z'' 2.66

A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 139.6m - Total Current Liabilities 54.7m) / Total Assets 677.0m
B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -18.1m / Total Assets 677.0m)
C: 0.28 (EBIT TTM 183.3m / Avg Total Assets 657.0m)
D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 25.3m / Total Liabilities 554.6m)
Altman-Z'' = 2.66 = A

Beneish M -3.03

DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 52.4m/57.6m, Revenue 564.8m/524.8m)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 99.20% / 99.25%)
AQI: 1.16 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.59)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 564.8m / 524.8m)
TATA: -0.23 (NI 44.5m - CFO 198.1m) / TA 677.0m)
Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of GCMG shares?

As of August 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.73 with a total of 800,445 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.94%, over one month by +8.32%, over three months by +30.39% and over the past year by +10.75%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.10 (which is 4.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is GCMG a buy, sell or hold?

GCM Grosvenor has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GCMG.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 1
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the GCMG price?

Analysts Target Price	15.5	12.9%

GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 835.0m (835.0m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 26.2692
P/E Forward = 15.361
P/S = 1.4729
P/B = 109.4876
Revenue TTM = 564.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 183.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 187.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 428.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 10.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 490.5m USD (corrected: LT Debt 428.4m + ST Debt 10.5m) + Leases 51.5m
Net Debt = 350.9m USD (calculated: Debt 490.5m - CCE 139.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.19b USD (835.0m + Debt 490.5m - CCE 139.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.84 (Ebit TTM 183.3m / Interest Expense TTM 15.5m)
EV/FCF = 6.18x (Enterprise Value 1.19b / FCF TTM 192.0m)
FCF Yield = 16.19% (FCF TTM 192.0m / Enterprise Value 1.19b)
FCF Margin = 34.00% (FCF TTM 192.0m / Revenue TTM 564.8m)
Net Margin = 7.88% (Net Income TTM 44.5m / Revenue TTM 564.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 564.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.21m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.75 (Enterprise Value 1.19b / Total Assets 677.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.16% (Interest Expense 15.5m / Debt 490.5m)
Taxrate = 9.66% (16.3m / 169.2m)
NOPAT = 165.6m (EBIT 183.3m * (1 - 9.66%))
Current Ratio = 2.55 (Total Current Assets 139.6m / Total Current Liabilities 54.7m)
Debt / Equity = 19.36 (Debt 490.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.87 (Net Debt 350.9m / EBITDA 187.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.83 (Net Debt 350.9m / FCF TTM 192.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.77% (Net Income 44.5m / Total Assets 677.0m)
RoE = 252.7% (Net Income TTM 44.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.6m)
RoCE = 41.09% (EBIT 183.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 17.6m + L.T.Debt 428.4m))
RoIC = 27.39% (NOPAT 165.6m / Invested Capital 604.6m)
WACC = 6.50% (E(835.0m)/V(1.33b) * Re(8.64%) + D(490.5m)/V(1.33b) * Rd(3.16%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 8.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.92 | Cagr: 3.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.84% ; FCFF base≈184.1m ; Y1≈202.5m ; Y5≈257.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 58.60 (EV 3.93b - Net Debt 350.9m = Equity 3.58b / Shares 61.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 11.60% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.35 | EPS CAGR: 20.01% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.41 | Revenue CAGR: 11.97% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+4.17% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+7.1% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=+2.66% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+20.0% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=3, down=7)