GCMG Stock Analysis: GCM Grosvenor | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 798m USD | 12M Return: 15.3% | US36831E1082 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.57M
EPS Trend: 95.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (NASDAQ: GCMG) is a global alternative asset management solutions provider, primarily serving pooled investment vehicles as well as investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit-sharing plans, and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests across equity and alternative investment markets in the United States and internationally, spanning multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. Its focus areas include hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, credit, and absolute return strategies, with additional emphasis on primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments spanning buyouts, distressed debt, venture stages, turnaround, mezzanine, and growth equity opportunities. The firm also pursues seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity managers, as well as regionally focused middle-market buyouts, with a preference for sectors such as aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. Geographically, it concentrates on Europe and several U.S. states, including Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, the company operates as a subsidiary of Grosvenor Capital Management Holdings, LLLP.
As a small-cap U.S. financial services firm in the asset management sub-industry, GCM Grosvenor went public in November 2020 and generates revenue primarily through management fees, performance fees, and carried interest earned on the alternative assets it manages on behalf of institutional and individual clients.
- Institutional commitments to private credit accelerate
- Incentive fees rebound on hedge fund outperformance
- Fee-related earnings margin expands with operating leverage
| Net Income: 44.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.28 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.03% < 20% (prev 17.59%; Δ -2.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.29 > 3% & CFO 198.1m > Net Income 44.5m |
| Net Debt (324.3m) to EBITDA (187.5m): 1.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (203.6m) vs 12m ago 3.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.97% > 50% (prev 82.40%; Δ 3.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 183.3m / Interest Expense TTM 15.5m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 139.6m - Total Current Liabilities 54.7m) / Total Assets 677.0m |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -18.1m / Total Assets 677.0m) |
| C: 0.28 (EBIT TTM 183.3m / Avg Total Assets 657.0m) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 25.3m / Total Liabilities 554.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.66 = A |
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 52.4m/57.6m, Revenue 564.8m/524.8m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 99.20% / 99.25%) |
| AQI: 1.16 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.59) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 564.8m / 524.8m) |
| TATA: -0.23 (NI 44.5m - CFO 198.1m) / TA 677.0m) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.18 with a total of 612,318 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.97%, over one month by +0.00%, over three months by -2.31% and over the past year by +15.25%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.60 (which is 4.4% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
GCM Grosvenor has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GCMG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.5 | 17.6% |
P/E Trailing = 25.0962
P/E Forward = 11.8624
P/S = 1.4071
P/B = 31.1928
Revenue TTM = 564.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 183.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 187.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 362.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 463.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 50.9m
Net Debt = 324.3m USD (calculated: Debt 463.9m - CCE 139.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.12b USD (797.7m + Debt 463.9m - CCE 139.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.84 (Ebit TTM 183.3m / Interest Expense TTM 15.5m)
EV/FCF = 5.84x (Enterprise Value 1.12b / FCF TTM 192.0m)
FCF Yield = 17.12% (FCF TTM 192.0m / Enterprise Value 1.12b)
FCF Margin = 34.00% (FCF TTM 192.0m / Revenue TTM 564.8m)
Net Margin = 7.88% (Net Income TTM 44.5m / Revenue TTM 564.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 564.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.21m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.66 (Enterprise Value 1.12b / Total Assets 677.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.34% (Interest Expense 15.5m / Debt 463.9m)
Taxrate = 9.66% (16.3m / 169.2m)
NOPAT = 165.6m (EBIT 183.3m * (1 - 9.66%))
Current Ratio = 2.55 (Total Current Assets 139.6m / Total Current Liabilities 54.7m)
Debt / Equity = 18.31 (Debt 463.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.73 (Net Debt 324.3m / EBITDA 187.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.69 (Net Debt 324.3m / FCF TTM 192.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.77% (Net Income 44.5m / Total Assets 677.0m)
RoE = 252.7% (Net Income TTM 44.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.6m)
RoCE = 48.28% (EBIT 183.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 17.6m + L.T.Debt 362.0m))
RoIC = 27.39% (NOPAT 165.6m / Invested Capital 604.6m)
WACC = 6.62% (E(797.7m)/V(1.26b) * Re(8.71%) + D(463.9m)/V(1.26b) * Rd(3.34%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 8.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.92 | Cagr: 3.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.84% ; FCFF base≈184.1m ; Y1≈202.5m ; Y5≈257.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 59.04 (EV 3.93b - Net Debt 324.3m = Equity 3.61b / Shares 61.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 11.60% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.35 | EPS CAGR: 20.01% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.41 | Revenue CAGR: 11.97% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-0.95% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+4.17% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+7.1% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=+2.66% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+20.0% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +58% (up=8, down=1)