(GERN) Geron - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US3741631036

Stock: Telomerase Inhibitor, Oncology, Myelodysplastic Syndromes, Anemia

Total Rating 12

Risk 23

Buy Signal -1.24

Biotechnology » Biotechnology
Age: 29.6y

Market Cap: 875m
Avg Trading Vol: 13.5M USD

ATR: 5.60%
Peers RS (IBD): 20.50

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 80.91%
EPS Trend: 76.9%

Last SUE: -0.36
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 176.64%
Rev. Trend: 73.6%

Last SUE: -1.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	67.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-9.76%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.56
Alpha	-64.76

Character TTM
Beta	1.122
Beta Downside	0.736

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	78.98%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.28

Description: GERN Geron January 21, 2026

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on oncology, best known for its telomerase inhibitor RYTELO, which is approved for adult patients with low- to intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) who are transfusion-dependent. Founded in 1990, the company is headquartered in Foster City, California, and trades as a common stock within the U.S. biotechnology sub-industry.

Key metrics that investors watch include Geron’s cash runway of roughly $150 million (Q4 2024), supporting R&D and commercial activities through 2026, and its 2023 revenue of $27 million, driven almost entirely by RYTELO sales. The MDS market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6-7 % through 2030, while telomerase-targeted therapies remain a niche but potentially high-margin segment within oncology, benefitting from broader trends such as increasing reimbursement for rare-disease treatments and the expansion of precision-medicine pipelines.

For a deeper dive into Geron’s valuation and peer benchmarks, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5

Net Income: -80.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 25.25 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 237.0% < 20% (prev 882.4%; Δ -645.4% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.23 > 3% & CFO -132.9m > Net Income -80.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 5.96 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (667.1m) vs 12m ago 0.75% < -2%
Gross Margin: 86.21% > 18% (prev 0.97%; Δ 8524 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 36.23% > 50% (prev 6.63%; Δ 29.61% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.35 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -44.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.1m)

Altman Z'' -12.10

A: 0.77 (Total Current Assets 522.3m - Total Current Liabilities 87.7m) / Total Assets 567.4m
B: -3.22 (Retained Earnings -1.83b / Total Assets 567.4m)
C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -45.9m / Avg Total Assets 506.2m)
D: -5.73 (Book Value of Equity -1.83b / Total Liabilities 318.7m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -12.10 = D

Beneish M 0.12

DSRI: 0.19 (Receivables 35.4m/30.1m, Revenue 183.4m/29.5m)
GMI: 1.12 (GM 86.21% / 96.65%)
AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.09)
SGI: 6.22 (Revenue 183.4m / 29.5m)
TATA: 0.09 (NI -80.0m - CFO -132.9m) / TA 567.4m)
Beneish M-Score: 0.12 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of GERN shares?

As of February 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.51 with a total of 14,229,659 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.42%, over one month by +14.39%, over three months by +25.83% and over the past year by -47.02%.

Is GERN a buy, sell or hold?

Geron has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GERN.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the GERN price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	3.4	125.2%
Analysts Target Price	3.4	125.2%
ValueRay Target Price	1.4	-8.6%

GERN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026

P/S = 4.7684
P/B = 3.5164
P/EG = -2.38
Revenue TTM = 183.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -45.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -44.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 994.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 121.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 43.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 615.9m USD (874.5m + Debt 121.9m - CCE 380.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.35 (Ebit TTM -45.9m / Interest Expense TTM 34.1m)
EV/FCF = -4.64x (Enterprise Value 615.9m / FCF TTM -132.8m)
FCF Yield = -21.56% (FCF TTM -132.8m / Enterprise Value 615.9m)
FCF Margin = -72.42% (FCF TTM -132.8m / Revenue TTM 183.4m)
Net Margin = -43.61% (Net Income TTM -80.0m / Revenue TTM 183.4m)
Gross Margin = 86.21% ((Revenue TTM 183.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 25.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.18% (prev 97.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 615.9m / Total Assets 567.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.09% (Interest Expense 8.64m / Debt 121.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -36.3m (EBIT -45.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.96 (Total Current Assets 522.3m / Total Current Liabilities 87.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 121.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 248.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.98 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 43.8m / EBITDA -44.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.33 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 43.8m / FCF TTM -132.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 264.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -15.80% (Net Income -80.0m / Total Assets 567.4m)
RoE = -30.28% (Net Income TTM -80.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 264.2m)
RoCE = -11.98% (EBIT -45.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 264.2m + L.T.Debt 119.3m))
RoIC = -9.47% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -36.3m / Invested Capital 383.1m)
WACC = 9.51% (E(874.5m)/V(996.5m) * Re(10.05%) + D(121.9m)/V(996.5m) * Rd(7.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.89%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -132.8m)
EPS Correlation: 76.86 | EPS CAGR: 80.91% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.62 | Revenue CAGR: 176.6% | SUE: -1.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+80.0% | Growth Revenue=+30.2%

Additional Sources for GERN Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle