GEVO Stock Analysis: Gevo | NASDAQ
Specialty Chemicals | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 387m USD | 12M Return: 18.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.90M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality
Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a Colorado-based carbon abatement company operating across four segments: Gevo, GevoFuels, GevoRNG, and GevoND. Its product portfolio spans sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable motor fuels, isobutanol, isooctane, renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrocarbons, ethylene, and protein/feed co-products from ethanol production.
The company is also active in project development, including Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) initiatives, anaerobic digestion projects that capture methane for RNG, and the Verity platform, which provides supply-chain tracking and verification of sustainability attributes. Originally incorporated in 2005 as Methanotech, Gevo has positioned itself around low-carbon fuel and chemical alternatives, placing it within the small-cap energy sector focused on renewable and decarbonization solutions rather than traditional fossil fuel refining.
- SAF production ramp and offtake agreements accelerate
- IRA tax credits and LCFS pricing boost fuel margins
- Capital raises dilute shares funding SAF project buildout
| Net Income: -33.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 51.01% < 20% (prev 125.8%; Δ -74.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -10.5m > Net Income -33.8m |
| Net Debt (94.8m) to EBITDA (16.0m): 5.93 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (236.8m) vs 12m ago 2.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.31% > 18% (prev 26.58%; Δ 20.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.20% > 50% (prev 6.20%; Δ 20.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.66 > 6 (EBIT TTM -12.8m / Interest Expense TTM 19.4m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 115.9m - Total Current Liabilities 26.9m) / Total Assets 653.5m |
| B: -1.31 (Retained Earnings -855.6m / Total Assets 653.5m) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -12.8m / Avg Total Assets 665.7m) |
| D: 2.25 (Book Value of Equity 447.7m / Total Liabilities 198.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.14 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.22 (Receivables 10.9m/11.9m, Revenue 174.4m/42.0m) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 26.58% / 47.31%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 4.15 (Revenue 174.4m / 42.0m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -33.8m - CFO -10.5m) / TA 653.5m) |
| Beneish M = -1.93 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of July 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.75 with a total of 3,074,655 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.06%, over one month by +23.24%, over three months by -5.41% and over the past year by +18.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1.60 (which is 8.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Gevo has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GEVO.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.3 | 204.6% |
P/S = 2.2189
P/B = 0.8698
P/EG = -0.01
Revenue TTM = 174.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -12.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 16.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 166.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 951k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 173.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.48m
Net Debt = 94.8m USD (calculated: Debt 173.7m - CCE 78.9m)
Enterprise Value = 481.8m USD (387.0m + Debt 173.7m - CCE 78.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.66 (Ebit TTM -12.8m / Interest Expense TTM 19.4m)
EV/FCF = -11.07x (Enterprise Value 481.8m / FCF TTM -43.5m)
FCF Yield = -9.03% (FCF TTM -43.5m / Enterprise Value 481.8m)
FCF Margin = -24.95% (FCF TTM -43.5m / Revenue TTM 174.4m)
Net Margin = -19.38% (Net Income TTM -33.8m / Revenue TTM 174.4m)
Gross Margin = 47.31% ((Revenue TTM 174.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 91.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.89% (prev 46.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 481.8m / Total Assets 653.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.19% (Interest Expense 19.4m / Debt 173.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -10.1m (EBIT -12.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.31 (Total Current Assets 115.9m / Total Current Liabilities 26.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 173.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 447.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.93 (Net Debt 94.8m / EBITDA 16.0m)
Debt / FCF = -2.18 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 94.8m / FCF TTM -43.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 464.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.08% (Net Income -33.8m / Total Assets 653.5m)
RoE = -7.28% (Net Income TTM -33.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 464.3m)
RoCE = -2.02% (EBIT -12.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 464.3m + L.T.Debt 166.8m))
RoIC = -1.63% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -10.1m / Invested Capital 618.8m)
WACC = 10.49% (E(387.0m)/V(560.7m) * Re(11.23%) + D(173.7m)/V(560.7m) * Rd(11.19%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -72.37 | Cagr: -0.68%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -43.5m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.82 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.19 | Revenue CAGR: 200.9% | SUE: -0.46 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=-90.11% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-22.2% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+37.0% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)