GEVO Stock Analysis: Gevo | NASDAQ
Specialty Chemicals | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 376m USD | 12M Return: -24.9% | US3743964062 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.41M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is a Colorado-based carbon abatement company operating across four segments: Gevo, GevoFuels, GevoRNG, and GevoND. Its product portfolio spans sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable motor fuels, isobutanol, isooctane, renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrocarbons, ethylene, and protein/feed co-products from ethanol production.
The company is also active in project development, including Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) initiatives, anaerobic digestion projects that capture methane for RNG, and the Verity platform, which provides supply-chain tracking and verification of sustainability attributes. Originally incorporated in 2005 as Methanotech, Gevo has positioned itself around low-carbon fuel and chemical alternatives, placing it within the small-cap energy sector focused on renewable and decarbonization solutions rather than traditional fossil fuel refining.
- SAF production ramp and offtake agreements accelerate
- IRA tax credits and LCFS pricing boost fuel margins
- Capital raises dilute shares funding SAF project buildout
| Net Income: -212.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.03% < 20% (prev 121.2%; Δ -85.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -16.2m > Net Income -212.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.70 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (237.1m) vs 12m ago 0.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.91% > 18% (prev 44.25%; Δ -1.34% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.76% > 50% (prev 11.42%; Δ 18.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.19 > 6 (EBIT TTM -190.5m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 101.6m - Total Current Liabilities 37.6m) / Total Assets 490.7m |
| B: -2.10 (Retained Earnings -1.03b / Total Assets 490.7m) |
| C: -0.32 (EBIT TTM -190.5m / Avg Total Assets 596.4m) |
| D: 1.30 (Book Value of Equity 273.2m / Total Liabilities 209.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.78 = D |
| DSRI: 0.47 (Receivables 16.5m/15.8m, Revenue 177.5m/80.2m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 44.25% / 42.91%) |
| AQI: 1.15 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 2.21 (Revenue 177.5m / 80.2m) |
| TATA: -0.40 (NI -212.9m - CFO -16.2m) / TA 490.7m) |
| Beneish M = -2.52 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.57 with a total of 11,946,266 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by +2.61%, over three months by +1.95% and over the past year by -24.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1.40 (which is 10.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Gevo has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GEVO.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.4 | 241.4% |
P/S = 2.1171
P/B = 1.43
P/EG = -0.01
Revenue TTM = 177.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -190.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -162.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 167.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 909k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 174.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.46m
Net Debt = 116.0m USD (calculated: Debt 174.2m - CCE 58.1m)
Enterprise Value = 491.8m USD (375.8m + Debt 174.2m - CCE 58.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.19 (Ebit TTM -190.5m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m)
EV/FCF = -8.70x (Enterprise Value 491.8m / FCF TTM -56.5m)
FCF Yield = -11.49% (FCF TTM -56.5m / Enterprise Value 491.8m)
FCF Margin = -31.84% (FCF TTM -56.5m / Revenue TTM 177.5m)
Net Margin = -119.9% (Net Income TTM -212.9m / Revenue TTM 177.5m)
Gross Margin = 42.91% ((Revenue TTM 177.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 101.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.58% (prev 52.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 491.8m / Total Assets 490.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.90% (Interest Expense 20.7m / Debt 174.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -150.5m (EBIT -190.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.70 (Total Current Assets 101.6m / Total Current Liabilities 37.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.64 (Debt 174.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 273.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.72 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 116.0m / EBITDA -162.1m)
Debt / FCF = -2.05 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 116.0m / FCF TTM -56.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 414.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -35.69% (Net Income -212.9m / Total Assets 490.7m)
RoE = -51.42% (Net Income TTM -212.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 414.0m)
RoCE = -32.77% (EBIT -190.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 414.0m + L.T.Debt 167.2m))
RoIC = -33.81% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -150.5m / Invested Capital 445.1m)
WACC = 9.22% (E(375.8m)/V(550.0m) * Re(9.13%) + D(174.2m)/V(550.0m) * Rd(11.90%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.62 | Cagr: -0.70%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -56.5m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.59 | Revenue CAGR: 207.3% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.44 | Chg30d=+43.73% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-211.5% | GrowthRev=+21.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+58.55% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+95.9% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)