(GO) Grocery Outlet Holding - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Grocery Stores | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 793m USD | Total Return: -43.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 24.6M
EPS Trend: -96.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Altman Z'' 0.67 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is a high-growth retailer specializing in the sale of name-brand consumables and fresh products through a network of independently operated stores across the United States. Its inventory spans perishable departments, such as dairy and meat, and non-perishable categories, including general merchandise and frozen foods. The company utilizes an opportunistic sourcing model, purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers at significant discounts to provide value pricing to consumers.
The business operates within the extreme value retail sector, a segment of the Consumer Staples industry that typically demonstrates resilience during economic downturns due to its focus on low-cost essentials. Unlike traditional centralized grocery chains, Grocery Outlet’s independent operator model allows individual store managers to customize local inventory and share in the store-level profits. For a deeper look at the company’s fundamental health, consider reviewing the financial metrics available on ValueRay.
Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Emeryville, California, the company has expanded its geographical footprint to include 16 states across the West Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. This regional diversification mitigates localized economic risks while leveraging a centralized purchasing hub to maintain a constant flow of treasure hunt items that drive recurring foot traffic.
- Opportunistic sourcing of discounted branded products maintains gross margin stability
- Independent operator model expansion drives regional store count and revenue growth
- High inflation increases consumer demand for extreme value grocery retail segments
- Supply chain modernization and automated inventory systems improve operational efficiency
- Strategic acquisitions of regional grocery chains accelerate market share gains in East Coast markets
| Net Income: -381.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.92 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.27% < 20% (prev 2.16%; Δ 0.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 247.5m > Net Income -381.9m |
| Net Debt (3.14b) to EBITDA (348.8m): 8.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.4m) vs 12m ago 0.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.07% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 2.98k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 151.8% > 50% (prev 136.3%; Δ 15.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.76 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 348.8m / Interest Expense TTM 32.1m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 489.3m - Total Current Liabilities 381.9m) / Total Assets 2.96b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -23.8m / Total Assets 2.96b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 217.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.11b) |
| D: -0.01 (Book Value of Equity -23.7m / Total Liabilities 2.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.67 = B |
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 14.1m/21.3m, Revenue 4.73b/4.46b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 30.07% / 30.50%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 4.73b / 4.46b) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -381.9m - CFO 247.5m) / TA 2.96b) |
| Beneish M = -3.66 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.92 with a total of 2,447,554 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.35%,
over one month by -1.12%,
over three months by -19.27% and
over the past year by -43.47%.
Grocery Outlet Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.07. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 8.5 | 6.8% |
P/E Forward = 14.3266
P/S = 0.1676
P/B = 0.983
Revenue TTM = 4.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 217.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 348.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 474.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 104.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.35b
Net Debt = 3.14b USD (calculated: Debt 3.19b - CCE 59.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.93b USD (792.9m + Debt 3.19b - CCE 59.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.76 (Ebit TTM 217.2m / Interest Expense TTM 32.1m)
EV/FCF = -1000.0x (Enterprise Value 3.93b / FCF TTM -3.20m)
FCF Yield = -0.08% (FCF TTM -3.20m / Enterprise Value 3.93b)
FCF Margin = -0.07% (FCF TTM -3.20m / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Net Margin = -8.08% (Net Income TTM -381.9m / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Gross Margin = 30.07% ((Revenue TTM 4.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.60% (prev 29.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 3.93b / Total Assets 2.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.01% (Interest Expense 32.1m / Debt 3.19b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 171.6m (EBIT 217.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 489.3m / Total Current Liabilities 381.9m)
Debt / Equity = 3.96 (Debt 3.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 807.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.99 (Net Debt 3.14b / EBITDA 348.8m)
Debt / FCF = -980.4 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 3.14b / FCF TTM -3.20m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.26% (Net Income -381.9m / Total Assets 2.96b)
RoE = -35.76% (Net Income TTM -381.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.07b)
RoCE = 14.08% (EBIT 217.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.07b + L.T.Debt 474.3m))
RoIC = 6.54% (NOPAT 171.6m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 2.20% (E(792.9m)/V(3.99b) * Re(7.86%) + D(3.19b)/V(3.99b) * Rd(1.01%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -73.07 | Cagr: -1.33%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -3.20m)
EPS Correlation: -96.87 | EPS CAGR: -26.32% | SUE: -1.23 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.56 | Revenue CAGR: 8.36% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-19.02% | Revisions=-76% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-3.33% | Revisions=-33% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+1.32% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=-33.3% | GrowthRev=-0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=+2.67% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+24.3% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -76%