(GO) Grocery Outlet Holding - Overview
Stock: Dairy, Produce, Meat, Grocery, Frozen, Beer
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.54 |
| Alpha | -47.45 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.164 |
| Beta Downside | -0.379 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 73.64% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.41 |
Description: GO Grocery Outlet Holding January 15, 2026
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) operates a chain of off-price grocery stores that sell a mix of perishable (dairy, deli, produce, fresh meat/seafood) and non-perishable items (dry goods, health & beauty, frozen foods, beer & wine) through independently managed locations across 16 U.S. states, anchored by its West-Coast origins in California.
As of FY 2023 the company reported approximately 330 stores, with same-store sales (comparable-store sales) growing ~5% year-over-year-a rate that outpaced the broader grocery sector’s ~2% growth, reflecting the continued consumer shift toward value-oriented retail during elevated inflation. Inventory turnover hovered around 4.5×, indicating efficient stock management despite a high proportion of perishable goods, while gross margins stayed near 27%, modestly above the industry average for discount grocers.
Key macro drivers include persistent inflation pressure that boosts demand for discount formats, and supply-chain constraints that make “close-out” purchasing models (buying over-stock from manufacturers) more profitable. However, the business remains sensitive to regional labor cost variations and to the availability of excess inventory from upstream suppliers; a sustained decline in such excess could compress margins.
For a deeper, data-driven look at GO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, model-based view worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -4.44m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.60% < 20% (prev 3.79%; Δ -1.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 203.8m > Net Income -4.44m |
| Net Debt (1.76b) to EBITDA (151.2m): 11.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.7m) vs 12m ago -0.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.24% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 2993 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 140.5% > 50% (prev 135.8%; Δ 4.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 151.2m / Interest Expense TTM 29.9m) |
Altman Z'' 0.83
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 517.5m - Total Current Liabilities 398.7m) / Total Assets 3.37b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 374.7m / Total Assets 3.37b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 27.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.25b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 374.8m / Total Liabilities 2.17b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.83 = B |
Beneish M -3.06
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 19.2m/17.8m, Revenue 4.57b/4.26b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 30.24% / 30.42%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 4.57b / 4.26b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -4.44m - CFO 203.8m) / TA 3.37b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of GO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.67%, over one month by +5.78%, over three months by -17.09% and over the past year by -41.83%.
Is GO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the GO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.1 | 40.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.1 | 40.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.8 | -22.9% |
GO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.2046
P/B = 0.7729
Revenue TTM = 4.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 27.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 151.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 481.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 99.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.76b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.69b USD (935.2m + Debt 1.81b - CCE 52.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.92 (Ebit TTM 27.6m / Interest Expense TTM 29.9m)
EV/FCF = -64.07x (Enterprise Value 2.69b / FCF TTM -42.1m)
FCF Yield = -1.56% (FCF TTM -42.1m / Enterprise Value 2.69b)
FCF Margin = -0.92% (FCF TTM -42.1m / Revenue TTM 4.57b)
Net Margin = -0.10% (Net Income TTM -4.44m / Revenue TTM 4.57b)
Gross Margin = 30.24% ((Revenue TTM 4.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.40% (prev 30.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 2.69b / Total Assets 3.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.37% (Interest Expense 6.71m / Debt 1.81b)
Taxrate = 28.00% (4.51m / 16.1m)
NOPAT = 19.9m (EBIT 27.6m * (1 - 28.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.30 (Total Current Assets 517.5m / Total Current Liabilities 398.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.51 (Debt 1.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.64 (Net Debt 1.76b / EBITDA 151.2m)
Debt / FCF = -41.83 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.76b / FCF TTM -42.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.14% (Net Income -4.44m / Total Assets 3.37b)
RoE = -0.37% (Net Income TTM -4.44m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.19b)
RoCE = 1.65% (EBIT 27.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.19b + L.T.Debt 481.5m))
RoIC = 1.19% (NOPAT 19.9m / Invested Capital 1.67b)
WACC = 2.40% (E(935.2m)/V(2.75b) * Re(6.52%) + D(1.81b)/V(2.75b) * Rd(0.37%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.21%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -42.1m)
EPS Correlation: -66.74 | EPS CAGR: -46.39% | SUE: -3.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.50 | Revenue CAGR: 11.27% | SUE: -1.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=13
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+5.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%