GO Stock Analysis: Grocery Outlet Holding | NASDAQ
Grocery Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 987m USD | 12M Return: -27.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.8M
EPS Trend: -92.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: GO) is a U.S. consumer staples retailer headquartered in Emeryville, California, that sells consumables and fresh products through independently operated stores. Founded in 1946 and public since 2019, the company operates across 16 states, with a footprint concentrated on the West Coast (California, Washington, Oregon) and expanding into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Its product mix spans perishable departments (dairy, deli, produce, floral, meat, and seafood) and non-perishable categories including grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty, frozen foods, and beer and wine. The business model relies on independent store operators who run individual locations, an approach more common among discount and convenience formats than among traditional grocery chains, and which aligns the operators incentives with store-level performance. As a Consumer Staples Merchandise Retailer, GO operates in a defensive sector whose demand tends to remain relatively stable through economic cycles, though it competes for price-sensitive shoppers against larger conventional and discount grocery chains.
- Comparable store sales decline amid intensifying discount competition
- New store openings accelerate into East Coast and Midwest markets
- Gross margin pressure persists as opportunistic buying supply tightens
| Net Income: -381.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.92 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.27% < 20% (prev 2.16%; Δ 0.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 247.5m > Net Income -381.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.4m) vs 12m ago 0.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.07% > 18% (prev 30.50%; Δ -0.43% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 151.8% > 50% (prev 136.3%; Δ 15.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.59 > 6 (EBIT TTM -372.4m / Interest Expense TTM 32.1m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 489.3m - Total Current Liabilities 381.9m) / Total Assets 2.96b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -23.8m / Total Assets 2.96b) |
| C: -0.12 (EBIT TTM -372.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.11b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 807.1m / Total Liabilities 2.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.20 = B |
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 17.5m/21.3m, Revenue 4.73b/4.46b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 30.50% / 30.07%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 4.73b / 4.46b) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -381.9m - CFO 247.5m) / TA 2.96b) |
| Beneish M = -3.34 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.91 with a total of 1,516,064 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.53%, over one month by +3.01%, over three months by +40.77% and over the past year by -27.51%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.90 (which is 10.2% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Grocery Outlet Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.07. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 8.5 | -14.6% |
P/E Forward = 17.8253
P/S = 0.2087
P/B = 1.2232
Revenue TTM = 4.73b USD
EBIT TTM = -372.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -240.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 474.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 104.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.35b
Net Debt = 3.14b USD (calculated: Debt 3.19b - CCE 59.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.12b USD (987.2m + Debt 3.19b - CCE 59.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.59 (Ebit TTM -372.4m / Interest Expense TTM 32.1m)
EV/FCF = -1000.0x (Enterprise Value 4.12b / FCF TTM -3.20m)
FCF Yield = -0.08% (FCF TTM -3.20m / Enterprise Value 4.12b)
FCF Margin = -0.07% (FCF TTM -3.20m / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Net Margin = -8.08% (Net Income TTM -381.9m / Revenue TTM 4.73b)
Gross Margin = 30.07% ((Revenue TTM 4.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.60% (prev 29.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 4.12b / Total Assets 2.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.01% (Interest Expense 32.1m / Debt 3.19b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -294.2m (EBIT -372.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 489.3m / Total Current Liabilities 381.9m)
Debt / Equity = 3.96 (Debt 3.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 807.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.02 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 3.14b / EBITDA -240.8m)
Debt / FCF = -980.4 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 3.14b / FCF TTM -3.20m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.26% (Net Income -381.9m / Total Assets 2.96b)
RoE = -36.58% (Net Income TTM -381.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.04b)
RoCE = -24.53% (EBIT -372.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.04b + L.T.Debt 474.3m))
RoIC = -11.22% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -294.2m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 2.37% (E(987.2m)/V(4.18b) * Re(7.45%) + D(3.19b)/V(4.18b) * Rd(1.01%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.56 | Cagr: -1.20%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -3.20m)
EPS Correlation: -91.96 | EPS CAGR: -16.30% | SUE: 0.58 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.56 | Revenue CAGR: 8.36% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-18.55% | Revisions=-81% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-2.84% | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+1.66% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=-33.3% | GrowthRev=-0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=+2.97% | Revisions=+15% | GrowthEPS=+24.3% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -33% (up=14, down=29)