(GPRE) Green Plains Renewable - Overview

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Chemicals | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.274m USD | Total Return: 239.4% in 12m

Ethanol, Distiller Grains, Corn Oil, Grain Storage
Total Rating 53
Safety 45
Buy Signal 1.30
Chemicals
Industry Rotation: +3.5
Market Cap: 1.27B
Avg Turnover: 23.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility63.4%
VaR 5th Pctl10.8%
VaR vs Median3.04%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio2.03
Rel. Str. IBD95.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group91.7
Character TTM
Beta1.579
Beta Downside1.965
Hurst Exponent0.411
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD90.71%
CAGR/Max DD-0.20
CAGR/Mean DD-0.33
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of GPRE over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -0.57, "2021-06": 0.2, "2021-09": -1.18, "2021-12": -0.09, "2022-03": -1.16, "2022-06": 0.73, "2022-09": -1.27, "2022-12": -0.66, "2023-03": -1.2, "2023-06": -0.89, "2023-09": 0.35, "2023-12": 0.12, "2024-03": -0.81, "2024-06": -0.38, "2024-09": 0.24, "2024-12": -0.86, "2025-03": -1.14, "2025-06": -1.09, "2025-09": 0.0819, "2025-12": 0.17, "2026-03": 0.42,
EPS CAGR: -13.71%
EPS Trend: 16.5%
Last SUE: 1.23
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of GPRE over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 553.64, 2021-06: 724.418, 2021-09: 746.791, 2021-12: 802.319, 2022-03: 781.435, 2022-06: 1012.394, 2022-09: 954.977, 2022-12: 914.043, 2023-03: 832.949, 2023-06: 857.632, 2023-09: 892.77, 2023-12: 712.392, 2024-03: 597.214, 2024-06: 618.825, 2024-09: 658.735, 2024-12: 584.022, 2025-03: 601.515, 2025-06: 552.829, 2025-09: 508.487, 2025-12: 428.849, 2026-03: 445.804,
Rev. CAGR: -19.65%
Rev. Trend: -96.6%
Last SUE: -0.44
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Share dilution 31.3% YoY

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.2 is critical

Altman Z'' -0.40 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Tailwinds

Leader, Tailwind, Pullback Retrace, Confidence

Description: GPRE Green Plains Renewable

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) is an Omaha-based biorefining company focused on the production of low-carbon fuels and co-products. The company operates through two primary segments: Ethanol Production and Agribusiness and Energy Services. Its business model centers on the processing of corn into ethanol, ultra-high protein animal feed, and renewable corn oil, while providing integrated logistics and commodity marketing services.

The biorefining sector is increasingly shifting toward high-value ingredients, such as corn oil, which serves as a critical feedstock for the growing renewable diesel market. Additionally, ethanol producers often utilize carbon capture and sequestration technologies to lower the carbon intensity scores of their fuel, potentially qualifying for federal tax credits. You may find it useful to evaluate these industry tailwinds further on ValueRay.

Beyond its internal production, Green Plains manages grain procurement, storage, and drying services for third-party producers. The company maintains an international footprint, marketing and transporting energy commodities and agricultural products across global markets.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Ethanol crush margins fluctuate based on corn input costs and fuel prices
  • Ultra-high protein technology expansion shifts revenue toward high-margin specialty ingredients
  • Federal Renewable Fuel Standard mandates and carbon intensity scores impact credit pricing
  • Increasing renewable corn oil yields drive demand from sustainable aviation fuel producers
  • Natural gas price volatility significantly affects ethanol distillation and production operating costs
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: -15.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.15 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 11.58% < 20% (prev 5.06%; Δ 6.53% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 117.2m > Net Income -15.4m
Net Debt (393.7m) to EBITDA (113.8m): 3.46 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.71 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.1m) vs 12m ago 31.32% < -2%
Gross Margin: 24.86% > 18% (prev 0.05%; Δ 2.48k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 119.0% > 50% (prev 147.8%; Δ -28.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 113.8m / Interest Expense TTM 79.2m)
Altman Z'' -0.40
A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 542.3m - Total Current Liabilities 318.0m) / Total Assets 1.59b
B: -0.26 (Retained Earnings -406.6m / Total Assets 1.59b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 14.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.63b)
D: -0.53 (Book Value of Equity -420.7m / Total Liabilities 795.7m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -0.40 = B
Beneish M -4.00
DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 85.9m/97.1m, Revenue 1.94b/2.46b)
GMI: 0.20 (GM 24.86% / 5.08%)
AQI: 0.53 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.06)
SGI: 0.79 (Revenue 1.94b / 2.46b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI -15.4m - CFO 117.2m) / TA 1.59b)
Beneish M-Score: -4.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of GPRE shares? As of May 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.14 with a total of 1,373,764 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.77%, over one month by +11.23%, over three months by +30.05% and over the past year by +239.41%.
Is GPRE a buy, sell or hold? Green Plains Renewable has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.38. Therefor, it is recommend to hold GPRE.
  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GPRE price?
Analysts Target Price 15.8 -8.1%
Green Plains Renewable (GPRE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 May 2026
P/E Forward = 23.31
P/S = 0.658
P/B = 1.6224
P/EG = 1.1562
Revenue TTM = 1.94b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 113.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 362.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 56.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 489.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 393.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.67b USD (1.27b + Debt 489.4m - CCE 95.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.18 (Ebit TTM 14.2m / Interest Expense TTM 79.2m)
EV/FCF = 18.48x (Enterprise Value 1.67b / FCF TTM 90.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.41% (FCF TTM 90.2m / Enterprise Value 1.67b)
FCF Margin = 4.66% (FCF TTM 90.2m / Revenue TTM 1.94b)
Net Margin = -0.80% (Net Income TTM -15.4m / Revenue TTM 1.94b)
Gross Margin = 24.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.94b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev -13.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.05 (Enterprise Value 1.67b / Total Assets 1.59b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.35% (Interest Expense 11.5m / Debt 489.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 11.2m (EBIT 14.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.71 (Total Current Assets 542.3m / Total Current Liabilities 318.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 489.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 785.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.46 (Net Debt 393.7m / EBITDA 113.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.36 (Net Debt 393.7m / FCF TTM 90.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 763.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.95% (Net Income -15.4m / Total Assets 1.59b)
RoE = -2.02% (Net Income TTM -15.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 763.9m)
RoCE = 1.26% (EBIT 14.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 763.9m + L.T.Debt 362.0m))
RoIC = 0.96% (NOPAT 11.2m / Invested Capital 1.17b)
WACC = 8.85% (E(1.27b)/V(1.76b) * Re(11.54%) + D(489.4m)/V(1.76b) * Rd(2.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 17.16%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.88% ; FCFF base≈90.2m ; Y1≈59.3m ; Y5≈27.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.04 (EV 466.7m - Net Debt 393.7m = Equity 72.9m / Shares 70.0m; r=8.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 16.52 | EPS CAGR: -13.71% | SUE: 1.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -96.65 | Revenue CAGR: -19.65% | SUE: -0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+17.47% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+13.43% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=+52.94% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+146.3% | GrowthRev=-1.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+28.16% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-5.4% | GrowthRev=+17.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%