(GRAL) GRAIL - Ratings and Ratios
Cancer Test, Diagnostic Aid, Development Services, Residual Disease
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 114% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.51% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.07 |
| Alpha | 450.17 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.91 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.403 |
| Beta | 2.362 |
| Beta Downside | 1.858 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.12% |
| Mean DD | 23.83% |
| Median DD | 24.36% |
Description: GRAL GRAIL January 18, 2026
GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRAL) is a commercial-stage biotech that markets multi-cancer early-detection solutions, primarily the Galleri blood test for asymptomatic adults ≥ 50 years and the DAC diagnostic-aid platform that speeds up work-up for patients with suspected cancer. The firm also offers development services for clinical trials, pilot programs, and therapy-development collaborations, and is expanding into minimal residual disease (MRD) assays to monitor disease recurrence after treatment.
Key quantitative signals (as of the latest public filings) include: • Galleri generated roughly $120 million in revenue in FY 2023, reflecting a ~ 30 % YoY growth driven by expanding payer coverage in the U.S. and early adoption in Europe. • The company reported a cash runway of about 18 months, underscoring the importance of securing additional financing or strategic partnerships. • The early-detection market is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of ~ 12 %, while the broader oncology diagnostics sector benefits from rising cancer incidence and increasing emphasis on value-based care reimbursement models.
If you want a data-focused framework to assess how GRAIL’s growth trajectory stacks up against sector benchmarks, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst tools can help you surface the most relevant metrics and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income (-406.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.51m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.25pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 361.0% (prev 693.0%; Δ -332.0pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO -328.7m > Net Income -406.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 7.61 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (36.1m) change vs 12m ago 13.31% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -47.53% (prev -68.59%; Δ 21.06pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 4.96% (prev 3.77%; Δ 1.19pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -111.1 (EBITDA TTM -383.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4.86m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -42.05
| (A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 589.4m - Total Current Liabilities 77.4m) / Total Assets 2.60b |
| (B) -3.89 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -10.11b / Total Assets 2.60b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -3.89 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.19 = EBIT TTM -540.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.86b |
| (D) -28.00 = Book Value of Equity -10.11b / Total Liabilities 361.1m |
| Total Rating: -42.05 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 40.16
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -9.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.03 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.18 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -32.52)% |
| 7. RoE -17.16% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 88.46% |
| 9. EPS Trend 70.51% |
What is the price of GRAL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.65%, over one month by +7.38%, over three months by +10.30% and over the past year by +447.92%.
Is GRAL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRAL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 105 | 3.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 105 | 3.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 120.8 | 19.2% |
GRAL Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026
P/B = 1.6958
Revenue TTM = 141.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -540.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -383.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 58.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 58.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -68.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.32b USD (3.80b + Debt 58.6m - CCE 540.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -111.1 (Ebit TTM -540.1m / Interest Expense TTM 4.86m)
EV/FCF = -10.06x (Enterprise Value 3.32b / FCF TTM -329.8m)
FCF Yield = -9.94% (FCF TTM -329.8m / Enterprise Value 3.32b)
FCF Margin = -232.6% (FCF TTM -329.8m / Revenue TTM 141.8m)
Net Margin = -286.4% (Net Income TTM -406.2m / Revenue TTM 141.8m)
Gross Margin = -47.53% ((Revenue TTM 141.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 209.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -37.94% (prev -50.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 3.32b / Total Assets 2.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.30% (Interest Expense 4.86m / Debt 58.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -426.7m (EBIT -540.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.61 (Total Current Assets 589.4m / Total Current Liabilities 77.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 58.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.18 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -68.3m / EBITDA -383.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.21 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -68.3m / FCF TTM -329.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -14.21% (Net Income -406.2m / Total Assets 2.60b)
RoE = -17.16% (Net Income TTM -406.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.37b)
RoCE = -22.26% (EBIT -540.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.37b + L.T.Debt 58.6m))
RoIC = -18.02% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -426.7m / Invested Capital 2.37b)
WACC = 14.50% (E(3.80b)/V(3.86b) * Re(14.62%) + D(58.6m)/V(3.86b) * Rd(8.30%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.86%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -329.8m)
EPS Correlation: 70.51 | EPS CAGR: 5575 % | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.46 | Revenue CAGR: 27.69% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-2.72 | Chg30d=-0.040 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-10.90 | Chg30d=-0.048 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-12.5% | Growth Revenue=+19.4%
Additional Sources for GRAL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle