(GRAL) GRAIL - Overview
Stock: Cancer Test, Diagnostic Aid, Development Services, Residual Disease
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 87.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.52 |
| Alpha | 160.50 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.286 |
| Beta Downside | 1.710 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.12% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.73 |
Description: GRAL GRAIL January 18, 2026
GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRAL) is a commercial-stage biotech that markets multi-cancer early-detection solutions, primarily the Galleri blood test for asymptomatic adults ≥ 50 years and the DAC diagnostic-aid platform that speeds up work-up for patients with suspected cancer. The firm also offers development services for clinical trials, pilot programs, and therapy-development collaborations, and is expanding into minimal residual disease (MRD) assays to monitor disease recurrence after treatment.
Key quantitative signals (as of the latest public filings) include: • Galleri generated roughly $120 million in revenue in FY 2023, reflecting a ~ 30 % YoY growth driven by expanding payer coverage in the U.S. and early adoption in Europe. • The company reported a cash runway of about 18 months, underscoring the importance of securing additional financing or strategic partnerships. • The early-detection market is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of ~ 12 %, while the broader oncology diagnostics sector benefits from rising cancer incidence and increasing emphasis on value-based care reimbursement models.
If you want a data-focused framework to assess how GRAIL’s growth trajectory stacks up against sector benchmarks, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst tools can help you surface the most relevant metrics and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -406.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 361.0% < 20% (prev 693.0%; Δ -332.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.13 > 3% & CFO -328.7m > Net Income -406.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.1m) vs 12m ago 13.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -47.53% > 18% (prev -0.69%; Δ -4684 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.96% > 50% (prev 3.77%; Δ 1.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -111.1 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -383.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4.86m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 589.4m - Total Current Liabilities 77.4m) / Total Assets 2.60b |
| B: -3.89 (Retained Earnings -10.11b / Total Assets 2.60b) |
| C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -540.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.86b) |
| D: -28.00 (Book Value of Equity -10.11b / Total Liabilities 361.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -42.05 = D |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.69 (Receivables 16.3m/19.8m, Revenue 141.8m/117.7m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.73 / AQ_t-1 0.66) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 141.8m / 117.7m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -406.2m - CFO -328.7m) / TA 2.60b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of GRAL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.47%, over one month by +2.07%, over three months by +17.58% and over the past year by +199.88%.
Is GRAL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRAL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 115 | 14.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 115 | 14.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 119.8 | 19.7% |
GRAL Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/B = 1.7415
Revenue TTM = 141.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -540.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -383.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 58.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 58.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -68.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.42b USD (3.90b + Debt 58.6m - CCE 540.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -111.1 (Ebit TTM -540.1m / Interest Expense TTM 4.86m)
EV/FCF = -10.37x (Enterprise Value 3.42b / FCF TTM -329.8m)
FCF Yield = -9.65% (FCF TTM -329.8m / Enterprise Value 3.42b)
FCF Margin = -232.6% (FCF TTM -329.8m / Revenue TTM 141.8m)
Net Margin = -286.4% (Net Income TTM -406.2m / Revenue TTM 141.8m)
Gross Margin = -47.53% ((Revenue TTM 141.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 209.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -37.94% (prev -50.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.31 (Enterprise Value 3.42b / Total Assets 2.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.30% (Interest Expense 4.86m / Debt 58.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -426.7m (EBIT -540.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.61 (Total Current Assets 589.4m / Total Current Liabilities 77.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 58.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.18 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -68.3m / EBITDA -383.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.21 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -68.3m / FCF TTM -329.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -14.21% (Net Income -406.2m / Total Assets 2.60b)
RoE = -17.16% (Net Income TTM -406.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.37b)
RoCE = -22.26% (EBIT -540.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.37b + L.T.Debt 58.6m))
RoIC = -18.02% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -426.7m / Invested Capital 2.37b)
WACC = 14.22% (E(3.90b)/V(3.96b) * Re(14.34%) + D(58.6m)/V(3.96b) * Rd(8.30%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.86%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -329.8m)
EPS Correlation: 70.51 | EPS CAGR: 5575 % | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.46 | Revenue CAGR: 27.69% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-2.69 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-10.83 | Chg30d=+0.028 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-24.2% | Growth Revenue=+20.1%