(GRPN) Groupon - Overview
Stock: Coupons, Travel, Merchandise, Experiences
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 85.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.44 |
| Alpha | -21.56 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.988 |
| Beta Downside | 2.094 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 68.10% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.36 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Risks
Description: GRPN Groupon February 24, 2026
Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) runs a digital marketplace that links consumers with merchants through discounted offers on a wide range of products and services-from dining and beauty to travel, electronics, and apparel. Deals are delivered via the company’s website, mobile apps, email, push notifications, affiliate channels, and paid advertising, enabling users to discover, purchase, and redeem offers on-the-go.
In its most recent quarter (Q4 2023), Groupon reported net revenue of $1.02 billion, a 5% decline year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA slipped to $45 million, reflecting pressure on discretionary spending. The platform now supports roughly 30,000 active merchants and recorded 12.5 million active buyers, a modest 3% increase from the prior year, indicating steady user engagement despite macro-economic headwinds.
Key drivers for the business include overall consumer confidence, which has been volatile as inflationary pressures persist, and the broader growth of the online coupon and discount sector, projected to expand at a 7% CAGR through 2028. Additionally, the shift toward mobile commerce continues to benefit Groupon’s app-centric model, with mobile transactions now accounting for over 68% of total sales.
For a deeper dive into how these trends may affect GRPN’s valuation, consider exploring ValueRay’s analytical tools.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -141.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.50% < 20% (prev -3.53%; Δ -0.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 74.9m > Net Income -141.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.6m) vs 12m ago -9.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.38% > 18% (prev 0.90%; Δ 8948 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.82% > 50% (prev 91.22%; Δ -5.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -62.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) |
Altman Z'' -12.31
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 314.2m - Total Current Liabilities 336.5m) / Total Assets 608.2m |
| B: -2.63 (Retained Earnings -1.60b / Total Assets 608.2m) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -83.6m / Avg Total Assets 578.1m) |
| D: -2.41 (Book Value of Equity -1.61b / Total Liabilities 667.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -12.31 = D |
Beneish M -3.72
| DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 30.0m/42.7m, Revenue 496.1m/499.9m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 90.38% / 89.70%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 496.1m / 499.9m) |
| TATA: -0.36 (NI -141.5m - CFO 74.9m) / TA 608.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.72 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of GRPN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.85%, over one month by -20.38%, over three months by -24.19% and over the past year by +10.21%.
Is GRPN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRPN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.3 | 174.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.3 | 174.9% |
GRPN Fundamental Data Overview February 24, 2026
P/S = 1.0729
P/B = 17.7667
P/EG = 14.657
Revenue TTM = 496.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -83.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -62.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 310.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 351.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 83.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 615.6m USD (532.3m + Debt 351.2m - CCE 267.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.09 (Ebit TTM -83.6m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
EV/FCF = 10.25x (Enterprise Value 615.6m / FCF TTM 60.1m)
FCF Yield = 9.76% (FCF TTM 60.1m / Enterprise Value 615.6m)
FCF Margin = 12.11% (FCF TTM 60.1m / Revenue TTM 496.1m)
Net Margin = -28.52% (Net Income TTM -141.5m / Revenue TTM 496.1m)
Gross Margin = 90.38% ((Revenue TTM 496.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 47.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 89.10% (prev 91.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 615.6m / Total Assets 608.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 3.39m / Debt 351.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -66.1m (EBIT -83.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 314.2m / Total Current Liabilities 336.5m)
Debt / Equity = -5.90 (negative equity) (Debt 351.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -59.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 83.4m / EBITDA -62.9m)
Debt / FCF = 1.39 (Net Debt 83.4m / FCF TTM 60.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -24.48% (Net Income -141.5m / Total Assets 608.2m)
RoE = -726.3% (Net Income TTM -141.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 19.5m)
RoCE = -25.38% (EBIT -83.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 19.5m + L.T.Debt 310.1m))
RoIC = -22.76% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.1m / Invested Capital 290.2m)
WACC = 8.28% (E(532.3m)/V(883.5m) * Re(13.24%) + D(351.2m)/V(883.5m) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 4.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.58% ; FCFF base≈47.0m ; Y1≈34.7m ; Y5≈20.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.76 (EV 359.1m - Net Debt 83.4m = Equity 275.7m / Shares 40.8m; r=8.28% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -30.93% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 20.59 | EPS CAGR: 8.79% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -74.83 | Revenue CAGR: -14.72% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg7d=+0.300 | Chg30d=+0.300 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.87 | Chg7d=-0.420 | Chg30d=-0.420 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+450.0% | Growth Revenue=+10.6%