GRPN Stock Analysis: Groupon | NASDAQ
Internet Content & Information | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 500m USD | 12M Return: -35.7% | US3994732069 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.2M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -54.4%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is a small-cap U.S. consumer discretionary company that runs an online marketplace connecting consumers with merchants offering discounted goods and services across North America and international markets. Its deal categories span beauty and wellness, food and drink, home and automotive services, experiences, travel (including hotels, airfare, and packages), and general merchandise like electronics, apparel, and household items. The company distributes deals through its websites, search engines, mobile apps, email, push notifications, affiliate channels, social/display advertising, and offline marketing. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, Groupon went public on November 4, 2011, and is classified within the Broadline Retail sub-industry of the GICS framework.
Groupon operates in the local commerce and online deals sector, sometimes referred to as the group-buying or daily deals industry, which pioneered the model of aggregating consumer demand to negotiate merchant discounts. Its business model relies on two-sided network effects, where merchant supply and consumer traffic reinforce one another, while revenue is primarily generated through commissions or share of revenue retained from each voucher redeemed. As a Broadline Retail player, Groupon competes with both specialized discount platforms and broader e-commerce marketplaces that have expanded into local experiences and travel.
- North America billings decline drags overall revenue
- Travel and experiences category outpaces goods segment recovery
- Cost reduction initiatives support path to sustained profitability
| Net Income: -8.36m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.26 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.17% < 20% (prev -4.50%; Δ -11.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 21.6m > Net Income -8.36m |
| Net Debt (136.6m) to EBITDA (31.6m): 4.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.6m) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.56% > 18% (prev 90.38%; Δ 0.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 87.09% > 50% (prev 81.57%; Δ 5.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.08 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.8m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) |
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 249.6m - Total Current Liabilities 330.4m) / Total Assets 540.1m |
| B: -2.98 (Retained Earnings -1.61b / Total Assets 540.1m) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 14.8m / Avg Total Assets 574.1m) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -72.6m / Total Liabilities 612.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -10.64 = D |
| DSRI: 0.70 (Receivables 21.1m/30.0m, Revenue 500.0m/496.1m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 90.38% / 90.56%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.44) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 500.0m / 496.1m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -8.36m - CFO 21.6m) / TA 540.1m) |
| Beneish M = -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.21 with a total of 2,054,561 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -21.63%, over one month by -33.86%, over three months by -44.88% and over the past year by -35.67%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.60 (which is 13.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Groupon has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GRPN.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 27 | 121.1% |
P/E Forward = 18.2482
P/S = 1.0005
P/B = 17.7667
P/EG = 14.657
Revenue TTM = 500.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 14.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 31.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 260.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 46.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 314.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 5.66m
Net Debt = 136.6m USD (calculated: Debt 314.0m - CCE 177.4m)
Enterprise Value = 636.9m USD (500.3m + Debt 314.0m - CCE 177.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.08 (Ebit TTM 14.8m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
EV/FCF = 72.75x (Enterprise Value 636.9m / FCF TTM 8.75m)
FCF Yield = 1.37% (FCF TTM 8.75m / Enterprise Value 636.9m)
FCF Margin = 1.75% (FCF TTM 8.75m / Revenue TTM 500.0m)
Net Margin = -1.67% (Net Income TTM -8.36m / Revenue TTM 500.0m)
Gross Margin = 90.56% ((Revenue TTM 500.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 47.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.39% (prev 90.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 636.9m / Total Assets 540.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.35% (Interest Expense 13.7m / Debt 314.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 11.7m (EBIT 14.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 249.6m / Total Current Liabilities 330.4m)
Debt / Equity = -4.33 (negative equity) (Debt 314.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -72.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.32 (Net Debt 136.6m / EBITDA 31.6m)
Debt / FCF = 15.60 (Net Debt 136.6m / FCF TTM 8.75m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -62.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.46% (Net Income -8.36m / Total Assets 540.1m)
RoE = 13.38% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -8.36m / Total Stockholder Equity -62.5m)
RoCE = 7.46% (EBIT 14.8m / Capital Employed (Equity -62.5m + L.T.Debt 260.4m))
RoIC = 5.26% (NOPAT 11.7m / Invested Capital 221.9m)
WACC = 8.69% (E(500.3m)/V(814.3m) * Re(11.99%) + D(314.0m)/V(814.3m) * Rd(4.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -28.29 | Cagr: 1.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.83% ; FCFF base≈29.3m ; Y1≈25.7m ; Y5≈20.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.47 (EV 315.2m - Net Debt 136.6m = Equity 178.6m / Shares 40.0m; r=8.69% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -54.42 | Revenue CAGR: -1.16% | SUE: -1.43 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.16 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+92.3% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+637.5% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=4, down=4)