(GRPN) Groupon - Overview
Stock: Coupons, Travel, Merchandise, Experiences
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 83.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.23 |
| Alpha | -59.07 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.933 |
| Beta Downside | 1.259 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.20% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.63 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Risks
Description: GRPN Groupon February 24, 2026
Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) runs a digital marketplace that links consumers with merchants through discounted offers on a wide range of products and services-from dining and beauty to travel, electronics, and apparel. Deals are delivered via the company’s website, mobile apps, email, push notifications, affiliate channels, and paid advertising, enabling users to discover, purchase, and redeem offers on-the-go.
In its most recent quarter (Q4 2023), Groupon reported net revenue of $1.02 billion, a 5% decline year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA slipped to $45 million, reflecting pressure on discretionary spending. The platform now supports roughly 30,000 active merchants and recorded 12.5 million active buyers, a modest 3% increase from the prior year, indicating steady user engagement despite macro-economic headwinds.
Key drivers for the business include overall consumer confidence, which has been volatile as inflationary pressures persist, and the broader growth of the online coupon and discount sector, projected to expand at a 7% CAGR through 2028. Additionally, the shift toward mobile commerce continues to benefit Groupon’s app-centric model, with mobile transactions now accounting for over 68% of total sales.
For a deeper dive into how these trends may affect GRPN’s valuation, consider exploring ValueRay’s analytical tools.
Headlines to watch out for
- Local deals marketplace revenue remains primary income source
- Marketing spend impacts customer acquisition cost
- Competition from direct-to-consumer businesses intensifies
- Economic downturn reduces consumer discretionary spending
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: -83.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.92 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.90% < 20% (prev 2.02%; Δ -3.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 64.5m > Net Income -83.5m |
| Net Debt (53.5m) to EBITDA (31.6m): 1.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.3m) vs 12m ago -4.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.97% > 18% (prev 0.90%; Δ 8.81k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.69% > 50% (prev 80.39%; Δ -2.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.91 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 31.6m / Interest Expense TTM 14.3m) |
Altman Z'' -10.05
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 374.4m - Total Current Liabilities 383.9m) / Total Assets 670.4m |
| B: -2.38 (Retained Earnings -1.59b / Total Assets 670.4m) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 13.0m / Avg Total Assets 641.5m) |
| D: -2.24 (Book Value of Equity -1.60b / Total Liabilities 712.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -10.05 = D |
Beneish M -3.54
| DSRI: 0.69 (Receivables 25.8m/36.8m, Revenue 498.4m/492.6m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 88.97% / 90.20%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.41 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 498.4m / 492.6m) |
| TATA: -0.22 (NI -83.5m - CFO 64.5m) / TA 670.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.54 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of GRPN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +18.57%, over one month by -12.48%, over three months by -34.54% and over the past year by -30.81%.
Is GRPN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRPN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.3 | 104.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.3 | 104.1% |
GRPN Fundamental Data Overview March 19, 2026
P/S = 0.8831
P/B = 14.924
P/EG = 14.657
Revenue TTM = 498.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 13.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 31.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 309.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 349.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 53.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 493.7m USD (440.2m + Debt 349.6m - CCE 296.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.91 (Ebit TTM 13.0m / Interest Expense TTM 14.3m)
EV/FCF = 9.90x (Enterprise Value 493.7m / FCF TTM 49.9m)
FCF Yield = 10.10% (FCF TTM 49.9m / Enterprise Value 493.7m)
FCF Margin = 10.01% (FCF TTM 49.9m / Revenue TTM 498.4m)
Net Margin = -16.76% (Net Income TTM -83.5m / Revenue TTM 498.4m)
Gross Margin = 88.97% ((Revenue TTM 498.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 55.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.38% (prev 89.10%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 493.7m / Total Assets 670.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.86% (Interest Expense 3.02m / Debt 349.6m)
Taxrate = 20.00% (2.02m / 10.1m)
NOPAT = 10.4m (EBIT 13.0m * (1 - 20.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 374.4m / Total Current Liabilities 383.9m)
Debt / Equity = -8.21 (negative equity) (Debt 349.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -42.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.70 (Net Debt 53.5m / EBITDA 31.6m)
Debt / FCF = 1.07 (Net Debt 53.5m / FCF TTM 49.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.36m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.02% (Net Income -83.5m / Total Assets 670.4m)
RoE = 6.14k% (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -83.5m / Total Stockholder Equity -1.36m)
RoCE = 4.21% (EBIT 13.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -1.36m + L.T.Debt 309.2m))
RoIC = 3.53% (NOPAT 10.4m / Invested Capital 293.6m)
WACC = 7.57% (E(440.2m)/V(789.8m) * Re(13.04%) + D(349.6m)/V(789.8m) * Rd(0.86%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 13.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.96%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.66% ; FCFF base≈45.9m ; Y1≈33.9m ; Y5≈19.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.51 (EV 400.3m - Net Debt 53.5m = Equity 346.8m / Shares 40.7m; r=7.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -30.93% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 25.40 | EPS CAGR: 11.48% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -68.00 | Revenue CAGR: -3.78% | SUE: -1.66 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg7d=-0.150 | Chg30d=-0.150 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg7d=-0.650 | Chg30d=-0.650 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+0.0% | Growth Revenue=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.76 | Chg7d=+1.760 | Chg30d=+1.760 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+44.3% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%