GSHD Stock Analysis: Goosehead Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.727m USD | 12M Return: -49.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.9M
EPS Trend: 84.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (NASDAQ: GSHD) is a U.S.-based holding company that, through its subsidiary Goosehead Financial, LLC, operates as a personal lines insurance agency. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Westlake, Texas, the company distributes a broad range of consumer and small-business insurance products, including homeowners, automotive, dwelling property, flood, wind, earthquake, umbrella/excess liability, general liability, property and auto for small businesses, life, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, and other personal insurance policies.
Goosehead sells through a dual channel of corporate and franchise locations, a hybrid distribution model that distinguishes it from many peers in the insurance brokerage industry, which typically rely on either direct-employed agents or independent agents. As an insurance agency rather than a carrier, the company earns revenue primarily through commissions on policies placed with third-party insurers rather than by underwriting risk itself. The company went public on the NASDAQ in April 2018 and is classified within the Financials sector under the Insurance Brokers sub-industry.
- Franchise location count drives new business commission growth
- Catastrophe losses tighten carrier underwriting and pricing competition
- Persistent client retention lifts high-margin renewal commission revenue
| Net Income: 30.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.00% < 20% (prev 26.90%; Δ -10.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 99.1m > Net Income 30.4m |
| Net Debt (407.9m) to EBITDA (95.3m): 4.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.6m) vs 12m ago -4.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 60.49% > 18% (prev 44.98%; Δ 15.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.06% > 50% (prev 78.93%; Δ 16.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.55 > 6 (EBIT TTM 83.1m / Interest Expense TTM 23.4m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 73.3m - Total Current Liabilities 12.0m) / Total Assets 392.8m |
| B: -0.33 (Retained Earnings -128.5m / Total Assets 392.8m) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 83.1m / Avg Total Assets 402.7m) |
| D: -0.20 (Book Value of Equity -121.3m / Total Liabilities 597.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.13 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 32.2m/23.9m, Revenue 382.8m/325.6m) |
| GMI: 0.74 (GM 44.98% / 60.49%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 382.8m / 325.6m) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI 30.4m - CFO 99.1m) / TA 392.8m) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 52.69 with a total of 569,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +19.83%, over one month by +53.30%, over three months by +18.43% and over the past year by -49.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.60 (which is 5.9% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
Goosehead Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GSHD.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 65.2 | 23.7% |
P/E Trailing = 42.5439
P/E Forward = 23.2019
P/S = 4.5183
P/B = 54.1593
Revenue TTM = 382.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 83.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 95.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 314.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 433.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 57.8m
Net Debt = 407.9m USD (calculated: Debt 433.6m - CCE 25.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.13b USD (1.73b + Debt 433.6m - CCE 25.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.55 (Ebit TTM 83.1m / Interest Expense TTM 23.4m)
EV/FCF = 26.43x (Enterprise Value 2.13b / FCF TTM 80.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.78% (FCF TTM 80.8m / Enterprise Value 2.13b)
FCF Margin = 21.10% (FCF TTM 80.8m / Revenue TTM 382.8m)
Net Margin = 7.94% (Net Income TTM 30.4m / Revenue TTM 382.8m)
Gross Margin = 60.49% ((Revenue TTM 382.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 151.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 53.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.43 (Enterprise Value 2.13b / Total Assets 392.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.41% (Interest Expense 23.4m / Debt 433.6m)
Taxrate = 16.47% (9.83m / 59.7m)
NOPAT = 69.4m (EBIT 83.1m * (1 - 16.47%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 73.3m / Total Current Liabilities 46.5m)
Debt / Equity = -3.58 (negative equity) (Debt 433.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -121.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.28 (Net Debt 407.9m / EBITDA 95.3m)
Debt / FCF = 5.05 (Net Debt 407.9m / FCF TTM 80.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -100.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.54% (Net Income 30.4m / Total Assets 392.8m)
RoE = -30.35% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 30.4m / Total Stockholder Equity -100.1m)
RoCE = 38.69% (EBIT 83.1m / Capital Employed (Equity -100.1m + L.T.Debt 314.9m))
RoIC = 18.58% (NOPAT 69.4m / Invested Capital 373.7m)
WACC = 6.47% (E(1.73b)/V(2.16b) * Re(6.96%) + D(433.6m)/V(2.16b) * Rd(5.41%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 6.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -17.98 | Cagr: 17.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.54% ; FCFF base≈80.5m ; Y1≈81.4m ; Y5≈87.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 40.08 (EV 1.36b - Net Debt 407.9m = Equity 948.7m / Shares 23.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.79% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 84.23 | EPS CAGR: 26.21% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.20 | Revenue CAGR: 18.57% | SUE: 1.31 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+18.1% | GrowthRev=+14.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=+1.24% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+26.0% | GrowthRev=+17.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73%