GSM Stock Analysis: Ferroglobe | NASDAQ
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 791m USD | 12M Return: -21.2% | GB00BYW6GV68 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.21M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -93.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ferroglobe PLC is a UK-headquartered producer of silicon metal and silicon- and manganese-based ferroalloys, serving industries ranging from steelmaking and aluminum production to electronics, automotive, and construction materials. Its product portfolio includes silicomanganese and ferromanganese (used as deoxidizing and desulfurizing agents in steel), ferrosilicon (for stainless and carbon steel and aluminum manufacturing), calcium silicon (for steel refining and welding), foundry products like nodularizers and inoculants, and silica fume, a by-product of its electrometallurgical process. The company is vertically integrated, operating quartz mines in South Africa, Spain, the United States, and Canada, metallurgical coal mines in the United States, and a hydroelectric power plant in France, and supplies raw inputs such as coal, manganese ore, quartz, and electrodes. Its end markets include silicone chemical producers, aluminum and steel manufacturers, automotive companies and suppliers, ductile iron foundries, photovoltaic solar cell and semiconductor chip manufacturers, and concrete producers. The company was incorporated in 2015 as VeloNewco Limited and adopted the Ferroglobe name in December 2015.
Factual context: Ferroglobe operates in the Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry), where silicon metal and ferrosilicon are critical inputs for solar-grade silicon, semiconductors, aluminum alloys, and chemical silicones. Its ownership of a hydroelectric power plant is notable because silicon metal production is highly energy-intensive, making low-cost captive power an important structural advantage for producers in this space.
- Solar demand surge lifts silicon metal prices and margins
- European energy costs pressure ferrosilicon production margins
- Global steel output recovery drives manganese alloy shipment volumes
| Net Income: -40.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.27% < 20% (prev 20.95%; Δ -8.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 40.8m > Net Income -40.4m |
| Net Debt (196.0m) to EBITDA (5.67m): 34.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (188.7m) vs 12m ago 0.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 6.70% > 18% (prev 25.03%; Δ -18.33% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.19% > 50% (prev 90.02%; Δ -4.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.66 > 6 (EBIT TTM -75.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m) |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 308.0m/349.4m, Revenue 1.37b/1.50b) |
| GMI: 3.74 (GM 25.03% / 6.70%) |
| AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 1.37b / 1.50b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -40.4m - CFO 40.8m) / TA 1.55b) |
| Beneish M = -0.50 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.10 with a total of 1,039,100 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.39%, over one month by -2.49%, over three months by +24.69% and over the past year by -21.20%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.60 (which is 12.2% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Ferroglobe has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GSM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6 | 46.3% |
P/E Forward = 5.9844
P/S = 0.4907
P/B = 1.2603
P/EG = 9.51
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = -75.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.67m USD
Long Term Debt = 39.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 130.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 289.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 65.4m
Net Debt = 196.0m USD (calculated: Debt 289.2m - CCE 93.2m)
Enterprise Value = 987.4m USD (791.4m + Debt 289.2m - CCE 93.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.66 (Ebit TTM -75.6m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m)
EV/FCF = -53.20x (Enterprise Value 987.4m / FCF TTM -18.6m)
FCF Yield = -1.88% (FCF TTM -18.6m / Enterprise Value 987.4m)
FCF Margin = -1.36% (FCF TTM -18.6m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = -2.96% (Net Income TTM -40.4m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 6.70% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.40% (prev 12.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 987.4m / Total Assets 1.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.14% (Interest Expense 20.7m / Debt 289.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -59.7m (EBIT -75.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 751.2m / Total Current Liabilities 583.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 289.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 717.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 34.58 (Net Debt 196.0m / EBITDA 5.67m)
Debt / FCF = -10.56 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 196.0m / FCF TTM -18.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 716.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.52% (Net Income -40.4m / Total Assets 1.55b)
RoE = -5.64% (Net Income TTM -40.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 716.9m)
RoCE = -9.99% (EBIT -75.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 716.9m + L.T.Debt 39.8m))
RoIC = -5.81% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -59.7m / Invested Capital 1.03b)
WACC = 9.57% (E(791.4m)/V(1.08b) * Re(11.01%) + D(289.2m)/V(1.08b) * Rd(7.14%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 12.16 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -18.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -92.96 | Revenue CAGR: -7.81% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=+44.44% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=+178.57% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+128.2% | GrowthRev=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+1.22% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+277.3% | GrowthRev=+20.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)