(GSM) Ferroglobe - Ratings and Ratios
Silicon Metal, Ferroalloys, Silica Fume, Quartz, Coal
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | % |
| Payout Consistency | 55.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 69.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.86% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 |
| Alpha | -6.54 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.12 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.581 |
| Beta | 0.906 |
| Beta Downside | 1.019 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.69% |
| Mean DD | 23.95% |
| Median DD | 23.69% |
Description: GSM Ferroglobe December 01, 2025
Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ:GSM) manufactures silicon metal, silicon-based chemicals, and a suite of manganese and ferroalloys (silicomanganese, ferromanganese, ferrosilicon, calcium silicon) for downstream markets such as aluminum and steel production, photovoltaics, electronics, construction, and specialty chemicals. Its operations span quartz mining in South Africa, Spain, the United States and Canada, low-ash metallurgical coal mining in the U.S., a charcoal plant in South Africa, and a hydroelectric facility in France, supporting a vertically integrated supply chain from raw material extraction to finished alloy and chemical products.
Key sector drivers that materially affect GSM’s outlook include: (1) Silicon metal pricing, which has averaged ≈ $2,400-$2,600 per metric ton in 2024 amid tightening supply from China and rising demand for solar-grade silicon; (2) Global steel production trends-approximately 1.9 billion tonnes in 2023-since ferroalloys are essential de-oxidizers and desulfurizers, any slowdown in steel output directly pressures alloy volumes; and (3) ESG-related cost pressures, as the company’s coal-based energy inputs face potential carbon-pricing and regulatory scrutiny, prompting a shift toward its hydroelectric assets. These factors, combined with the company’s diversified end-markets, suggest that revenue sensitivity is higher to silicon-related demand cycles than to traditional steel cycles.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of GSM’s valuation metrics, consider reviewing the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-136.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 82.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -7.80pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 23.67% (prev 27.16%; Δ -3.49pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 84.4m > Net Income -136.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (188.1m) change vs 12m ago -1.22% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 18.72% (prev 26.60%; Δ -7.88pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 86.36% (prev 92.04%; Δ -5.68pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -5.73 (EBITDA TTM -3.98m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.99
| (A) 0.21 = (Total Current Assets 820.5m - Total Current Liabilities 495.4m) / Total Assets 1.54b |
| (B) 0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 23.5m / Total Assets 1.54b |
| (C) -0.05 = EBIT TTM -78.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b |
| (D) 0.85 = Book Value of Equity 640.0m / Total Liabilities 754.6m |
| Total Rating: 1.99 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 24.50
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.30% |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.38% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -22.93 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -15.91)% |
| 7. RoE -17.04% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -80.89% |
| 9. EPS Trend -77.83% |
What is the price of GSM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.19%, over one month by +3.33%, over three months by +9.24% and over the past year by +9.62%.
Is GSM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GSM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6 | 28.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6 | 28.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.6 | -0.6% |
GSM Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Forward = 10.0908
P/S = 0.5418
P/B = 1.1008
P/EG = 9.51
Beta = 1.119
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = -78.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -3.98m USD
Long Term Debt = 52.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 94.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 212.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 91.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 822.9m USD (744.0m + Debt 212.8m - CCE 134.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.73 (Ebit TTM -78.8m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.30% (FCF TTM 18.9m / Enterprise Value 822.9m)
FCF Margin = 1.38% (FCF TTM 18.9m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = -9.92% (Net Income TTM -136.2m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 18.72% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.63% (prev 12.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 822.9m / Total Assets 1.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 3.88m / Debt 212.8m)
Taxrate = -182.2% (out of range, set to none) (8.57m / -4.70m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 1.66 (Total Current Assets 820.5m / Total Current Liabilities 495.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 212.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 786.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 91.3m / EBITDA -3.98m)
Debt / FCF = 4.83 (Net Debt 91.3m / FCF TTM 18.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 799.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.83% (Net Income -136.2m / Total Assets 1.54b)
RoE = -17.04% (Net Income TTM -136.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 799.0m)
RoCE = -9.25% (EBIT -78.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 799.0m + L.T.Debt 52.4m))
RoIC = -8.64% (negative operating profit) (EBIT -78.8m / (Assets 1.54b - Curr.Liab 495.4m - Cash 134.0m))
WACC = 7.27% (E(744.0m)/V(956.8m) * Re(9.35%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.78% ; FCFE base≈70.5m ; Y1≈46.3m ; Y5≈21.2m
Fair Price DCF = 1.82 (DCF Value 339.1m / Shares Outstanding 186.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -77.83 | EPS CAGR: -19.66% | SUE: -1.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -80.89 | Revenue CAGR: -14.86% | SUE: -1.67 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=-0.100 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.390 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+132.9% | Growth Revenue=+22.6%
Additional Sources for GSM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle