(GSM) Ferroglobe - Overview
Stock: Silicon Metal, Ferroalloys, Silicone Chemicals, Silica Fume, Foundry Products
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.33% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.69% |
| Payout Consistency | 56.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.79% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.70 |
| Alpha | 18.11 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.868 |
| Beta Downside | 0.826 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.07 |
Description: GSM Ferroglobe January 26, 2026
Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ:GSM) is a vertically integrated producer of silicon metal, silicon-based chemicals, and a range of ferro-alloys (silicomanganese, ferromanganese, ferrosilicon, calcium silicon, and foundry additives). Its product slate serves aluminum smelters, steelmakers, photovoltaic-cell manufacturers, semiconductor fabs, and construction-related industries. The firm also owns quartz mining assets in South Africa, Spain, the U.S., and Canada, low-ash metallurgical-coal pits in the United States, a charcoal plant in South Africa, and a hydro-electric facility in France, giving it exposure to both raw-material supply and downstream processing.
According to the latest FY 2023 filing (released February 2024), Ferroglobe generated $1.21 billion in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA of $152 million and a net profit margin of 3.8 %. Silicon-metal output reached ~205 kt, while ferro-alloy production rose 5 % year-over-year, driven by higher steel-deoxidation demand in Europe and Asia. Recent market data (June 2024) show silicon-metal prices averaging $2,850/ton, a 12 % premium to the 2023 average, reflecting tightening supply from Chinese producers and expanding solar-PV capacity additions (global PV installations grew 18 % YoY in Q2 2024). A key sector driver is the EU’s “Fit for 55” policy, which incentivizes low-carbon steel and aluminum production-both of which rely on Ferroglobe’s deoxidizing alloys.
Given the company’s exposure to both commodity-price cycles and structural demand growth in clean-energy and steel, a quantitative deep-dive can help isolate upside potential; you may find ValueRay’s GSM model a useful next step for detailed scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -136.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.67% < 20% (prev 27.16%; Δ -3.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 84.4m > Net Income -136.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (188.1m) vs 12m ago -1.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.72% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 1845 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 86.36% > 50% (prev 92.04%; Δ -5.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.73 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -3.98m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) |
Altman Z'' 1.99
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 820.5m - Total Current Liabilities 495.4m) / Total Assets 1.54b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 23.5m / Total Assets 1.54b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -78.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b) |
| D: 0.85 (Book Value of Equity 640.0m / Total Liabilities 754.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.99 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.88
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 281.9m/320.0m, Revenue 1.37b/1.51b) |
| GMI: 1.42 (GM 18.72% / 26.60%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 1.37b / 1.51b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -136.2m - CFO 84.4m) / TA 1.54b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of GSM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.07%, over one month by +3.92%, over three months by +12.34% and over the past year by +31.30%.
Is GSM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GSM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6 | 19% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6 | 19% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.7 | 12.1% |
GSM Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.6499
P/B = 1.3531
P/EG = 9.51
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = -78.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -3.98m USD
Long Term Debt = 52.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 94.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 212.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 91.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 971.3m USD (892.5m + Debt 212.8m - CCE 134.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.73 (Ebit TTM -78.8m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
EV/FCF = 51.41x (Enterprise Value 971.3m / FCF TTM 18.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.95% (FCF TTM 18.9m / Enterprise Value 971.3m)
FCF Margin = 1.38% (FCF TTM 18.9m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = -9.92% (Net Income TTM -136.2m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 18.72% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.63% (prev 12.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 971.3m / Total Assets 1.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 3.88m / Debt 212.8m)
Taxrate = 43.86% (16.3m / 37.1m)
NOPAT = -44.2m (EBIT -78.8m * (1 - 43.86%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.66 (Total Current Assets 820.5m / Total Current Liabilities 495.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 212.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 786.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 91.3m / EBITDA -3.98m)
Debt / FCF = 4.83 (Net Debt 91.3m / FCF TTM 18.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 799.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.56% (Net Income -136.2m / Total Assets 1.54b)
RoE = -17.04% (Net Income TTM -136.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 799.0m)
RoCE = -9.25% (EBIT -78.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 799.0m + L.T.Debt 52.4m))
RoIC = -17.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -44.2m / Invested Capital 257.5m)
WACC = 7.55% (E(892.5m)/V(1.11b) * Re(9.11%) + D(212.8m)/V(1.11b) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.44)))
Discount Rate = 9.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.32% ; FCFF base≈70.5m ; Y1≈46.3m ; Y5≈21.1m
Fair Price DCF = 1.92 (EV 448.8m - Net Debt 91.3m = Equity 357.4m / Shares 186.6m; r=7.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -84.03 | EPS CAGR: -35.41% | SUE: 1.07 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -80.89 | Revenue CAGR: -14.86% | SUE: -1.67 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=-0.100 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.390 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+132.9% | Growth Revenue=+22.6%