GSM Stock Analysis: Ferroglobe | NASDAQ

Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 594m USD | 12M Return: -19.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Silicon Metal, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Alloys, Silica Fume
Total Rating 14
Safety 38
Buy Signal -0.62
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: -36.0
Market Cap: 594M
Avg Turnover: 5.66M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility51.4%
VaR 5th Pctl8.55%
VaR vs Median1.01%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Rel. Str. IBD5.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group5.2
Character TTM
Beta1.006
Beta Downside1.240
Hurst Exponent0.491
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD53.69%
CAGR/Max DD-0.20
CAGR/Mean DD-0.38
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of GSM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.02, "2021-09": -0.36, "2021-12": 0.23, "2022-03": 0.88, "2022-06": 1.14, "2022-09": 0.64, "2022-12": 0.42, "2023-03": 0.05, "2023-06": 0.3, "2023-09": 0.27, "2023-12": 0.09, "2024-03": -0.0108, "2024-06": 0.13, "2024-09": 0.11, "2024-12": 0.03, "2025-03": -0.2, "2025-06": -0.08, "2025-09": -0.02, "2025-12": -0.06, "2026-03": -0.07,
Last SUE: -0.17
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of GSM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 418.538, 2021-09: 429.21, 2021-12: 569.771, 2022-03: 715.265, 2022-06: 840.808, 2022-09: 593.218, 2022-12: 400.868, 2023-03: 400.868, 2023-06: 456.441, 2023-09: 416.81, 2023-12: 375.951, 2024-03: 391.854, 2024-06: 307.179, 2024-09: 433.533, 2024-12: 367.505, 2025-03: 307.179, 2025-06: 386.862, 2025-09: 311.698, 2025-12: 329.382, 2026-03: 347.745,
Rev. CAGR: -9.61%
Rev. Trend: -93.7%
Last SUE: 0.11
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -0.7% 16
Feb +4.6% 35
Mar -7.0% 36
Apr -0.5% 16
May +6.0% 30
Jun -6.0% 18
Jul +2.7% 24
Aug +1.4% 6
Sep -0.3% 8
Oct -11.3% 22
Nov -0.3% 8
Dec -2.8% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: GSM Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe PLC is a UK-headquartered producer of silicon metal and silicon- and manganese-based ferroalloys, serving the diversified metals and mining sector. Its silicon metal is used across construction products, electronics, personal care, healthcare items, and as an input for aluminum producers.

The companys alloy portfolio includes silicomanganese and ferromanganese, which function as deoxidizing and desulfurizing agents in steelmaking, as well as ferrosilicon used in stainless and carbon steel production, electrode manufacturing, and aluminum production. It also supplies calcium silicon for steel deoxidation, cast iron pipe coating, welding, and pyrotechnics, and foundry products such as nodularizers and inoculants used in iron casting.

Ferroglobe sells silica fume, a byproduct of the energy-intensive electrometallurgical process used to produce silicon metal and ferrosilicon. This process is highly electricity-dependent, which is reflected in the companys vertically integrated operations: it owns quartz mines in South Africa, Spain, the United States, and Canada; metallurgical coal mines in the United States; and a hydroelectric power plant in France, while also procuring manganese ore, electrodes, and other raw materials.

Its customer base spans silicones chemical producers, aluminum and steel manufacturers, automotive companies and suppliers, ductile iron foundries, photovoltaic solar cell and computer chip manufacturers, and concrete producers. The company was originally incorporated in 2015 as VeloNewco Limited, was renamed Ferroglobe PLC in December 2015, and is headquartered in London.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Solar panel demand lifts silicon metal prices
  • European power costs squeeze silicon production margins
  • Steel demand weakness pressures ferromanganese pricing
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -111.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.92 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 16.58% < 20% (prev 22.30%; Δ -5.72% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 19.4m > Net Income -111.3m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.43 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (188.3m) vs 12m ago 0.68% < -2%
Gross Margin: 2.78% > 18% (prev 26.77%; Δ -24.00% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 89.87% > 50% (prev 91.88%; Δ -2.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.43 > 6 (EBIT TTM -142.3m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m)
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 308.8m/302.0m, Revenue 1.38b/1.42b)
GMI: 9.64 (GM 26.77% / 2.78%)
AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.16)
SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 1.38b / 1.42b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -111.3m - CFO 19.4m) / TA 1.52b)
Beneish M = 4.90 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of GSM shares?

As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.40 with a total of 1,475,408 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.10%, over one month by -10.87%, over three months by -15.29% and over the past year by -19.41%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.10 (which is 8.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is GSM a buy, sell or hold?

Ferroglobe has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GSM.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the GSM price?
Analysts Target Price 6 76.5%
Ferroglobe (GSM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 02 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 594.2m (594.2m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 29.5858
P/S = 0.4319
P/B = 1.0372
P/EG = 9.51
Revenue TTM = 1.38b USD
EBIT TTM = -142.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -58.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 59.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 125.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 308.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 68.0m
Net Debt = 211.6m USD (calculated: Debt 308.0m - CCE 96.4m)
Enterprise Value = 805.8m USD (594.2m + Debt 308.0m - CCE 96.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.43 (Ebit TTM -142.3m / Interest Expense TTM 22.1m)
EV/FCF = -20.73x (Enterprise Value 805.8m / FCF TTM -38.9m)
FCF Yield = -4.82% (FCF TTM -38.9m / Enterprise Value 805.8m)
FCF Margin = -2.83% (FCF TTM -38.9m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Net Margin = -8.09% (Net Income TTM -111.3m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Gross Margin = 2.78% ((Revenue TTM 1.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.51% (prev -28.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 805.8m / Total Assets 1.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.19% (Interest Expense 22.1m / Debt 308.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -112.4m (EBIT -142.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.43 (Total Current Assets 760.2m / Total Current Liabilities 532.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.46 (Debt 308.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 670.5m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -3.63 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 211.6m / EBITDA -58.3m)
 Debt / FCF = -5.44 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 211.6m / FCF TTM -38.9m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 740.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.27% (Net Income -111.3m / Total Assets 1.52b)
RoE = -15.03% (Net Income TTM -111.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 740.5m)
RoCE = -17.79% (EBIT -142.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 740.5m + L.T.Debt 59.3m))
 RoIC = -10.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -112.4m / Invested Capital 1.05b)
 WACC = 8.21% (E(594.2m)/V(902.2m) * Re(9.52%) + D(308.0m)/V(902.2m) * Rd(7.19%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 40.45 | Cagr: 0.10%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -38.9m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -93.66 | Revenue CAGR: -9.61% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.04 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.14 | Chg30d=-64.71% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+64.1% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=-18.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+392.9% | GrowthRev=+21.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)