HBNC Stock Analysis: Horizon Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.026m USD | 12M Return: 26.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.2M
EPS Trend: 75.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -67.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) is a community-oriented bank holding company that operates Horizon Bank, serving both individual and corporate customers across Indiana and Michigan. Its core business spans standard retail deposit products (checking, savings, money market, CDs) alongside a diversified lending portfolio that includes commercial loans, residential mortgages, mortgage warehouse lending, consumer loans, home equity products, SBA loans, and specialty financing such as medical practice and franchise lending.
Beyond traditional banking, the company generates fee-based income through wealth and trust services (investment management, corporate and individual trust, real estate investment trusts), treasury and payment services (merchant processing, ACH, remote deposit, positive pay), and insurance and retirement offerings including IRAs and estate planning.
As a regional bank operating under a community banking model, HBNC concentrates its branch network within a defined geographic footprint and emphasizes relationship-driven lending to local businesses, households, and municipalities. Founded in 1873 and headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana, the company has been listed on the NASDAQ since its 2001 IPO and falls within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the financials sector.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Mortgage warehouse lending revenue declines with lower origination volume
- Commercial real estate credit losses rise in Indiana and Michigan markets
| Net Income: -148.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.65% < 20% (prev -1.52k%; Δ 1.55k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 84.7m > Net Income -148.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.2m) vs 12m ago 16.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -24.98% > 18% (prev 53.87%; Δ -78.85% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.35% > 50% (prev 4.80%; Δ -3.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM -195.3m / Interest Expense TTM 120.8m) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 97.4m - Total Current Liabilities 66.0m) / Total Assets 6.56b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 272.9m / Total Assets 6.56b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -195.3m / Avg Total Assets 7.09b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 699.0m / Total Liabilities 5.87b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.11 = B |
| DSRI: 2.86 (Receivables 29.0m/38.7m, Revenue 96.1m/365.9m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 0.26 (Revenue 96.1m / 365.9m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -148.3m - CFO 84.7m) / TA 6.56b) |
| Beneish M = -2.02 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.64 with a total of 551,361 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.32%, over one month by +4.73%, over three months by +16.92% and over the past year by +26.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 19.00 (which is 3.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Horizon Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HBNC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21.2 | 7.9% |
P/E Forward = 11.0497
P/S = 3.7581
P/B = 1.4671
P/EG = 0.804
Revenue TTM = 96.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -195.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -182.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 315.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 66.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 381.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 313.5m USD (calculated: Debt 381.8m - CCE 68.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.34b USD (1.03b + Debt 381.8m - CCE 68.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.62 (Ebit TTM -195.3m / Interest Expense TTM 120.8m)
EV/FCF = 16.55x (Enterprise Value 1.34b / FCF TTM 80.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.04% (FCF TTM 80.9m / Enterprise Value 1.34b)
FCF Margin = 84.23% (FCF TTM 80.9m / Revenue TTM 96.1m)
Net Margin = -154.3% (Net Income TTM -148.3m / Revenue TTM 96.1m)
Gross Margin = -24.98% ((Revenue TTM 96.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 120.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.66% (prev 74.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.20 (Enterprise Value 1.34b / Total Assets 6.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 31.64% (Interest Expense 120.8m / Debt 381.8m)
Taxrate = 19.10% (6.18m / 32.3m)
NOPAT = -158.0m (EBIT -195.3m * (1 - 19.10%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 97.4m / Total Current Liabilities 66.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.55 (Debt 381.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 699.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.71 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 313.5m / EBITDA -182.9m)
Debt / FCF = 3.87 (Net Debt 313.5m / FCF TTM 80.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 709.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.09% (Net Income -148.3m / Total Assets 6.56b)
RoE = -20.89% (Net Income TTM -148.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 709.7m)
RoCE = -19.04% (EBIT -195.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 709.7m + L.T.Debt 315.8m))
RoIC = -2.41% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -158.0m / Invested Capital 6.56b)
WACC = 13.55% (E(1.03b)/V(1.41b) * Re(9.06%) + D(381.8m)/V(1.41b) * Rd(31.64%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.89 | Cagr: 7.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 63.04% ; FCFF base≈52.6m ; Y1≈60.3m ; Y5≈88.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.37 (EV 691.6m - Net Debt 313.5m = Equity 378.2m / Shares 51.3m; r=13.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 75.78 | EPS CAGR: 31.81% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -67.64 | Revenue CAGR: -37.81% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+1.65% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=+0.75% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+2.44% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-33.6% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.22 | Chg30d=+1.37% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+5.7% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=9, down=1)