HFWA Stock Analysis: Heritage Financial | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.131m USD | 12M Return: 18.6% | US42722X1063 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.9M
EPS Trend: 33.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) is a bank holding company that operates Heritage Bank, providing a range of financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and their owners across the United States. Its deposit offerings include noninterest and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. On the lending side, the company provides commercial business loans (including lines of credit, term equipment financing, and owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied CRE loans), real estate construction and land development loans, residential real estate loans, SBA-guaranteed loans, and secured and unsecured consumer loans and lines of credit.
In addition to traditional banking products, Heritage Financial offers investment advice, online banking and statements, mobile banking with mobile deposit, Visa debit cards, and access services. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Olympia, Washington, placing it within the Pacific Northwest community banking footprint typical of the regional banks sub-industry. Its focus on small and medium-sized business lending, including SBA-guaranteed loans, reflects a common community bank strategy of serving underserved local markets where larger banks may have less presence.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit quality headwinds
- Deposit costs rise faster than asset yields squeezing profitability
| Net Income: 77.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.09% < 20% (prev -1.51k%; Δ 1.50k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 90.1m > Net Income 77.9m |
| Net Debt (86.2m) to EBITDA (50.7m): 1.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.4m) vs 12m ago 16.96% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.64% > 18% (prev 68.06%; Δ 6.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.34% > 50% (prev 4.60%; Δ -0.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 47.2m / Interest Expense TTM 87.0m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 125.6m - Total Current Liabilities 166.2m) / Total Assets 8.43b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 439.8m / Total Assets 8.43b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 47.2m / Avg Total Assets 7.75b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.11b / Total Liabilities 7.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.34 = B |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 23.1m/18.6m, Revenue 336.3m/325.2m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 68.06% / 74.64%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 336.3m / 325.2m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 77.9m - CFO 90.1m) / TA 8.43b) |
| Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 27.88 with a total of 369,014 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.99%, over one month by -3.53%, over three months by -5.70% and over the past year by +18.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.30 (which is 5.7% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
Heritage Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HFWA.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 32.8 | 17.6% |
P/E Trailing = 13.0948
P/E Forward = 12.3305
P/S = 3.8312
P/B = 1.0405
P/EG = 2.125
Revenue TTM = 336.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 47.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 50.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 188.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 166.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 188.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 86.2m USD (calculated: Debt 188.7m - CCE 102.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.22b USD (1.13b + Debt 188.7m - CCE 102.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.54 (Ebit TTM 47.2m / Interest Expense TTM 87.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.53x (Enterprise Value 1.22b / FCF TTM 83.7m)
FCF Yield = 6.88% (FCF TTM 83.7m / Enterprise Value 1.22b)
FCF Margin = 24.90% (FCF TTM 83.7m / Revenue TTM 336.3m)
Net Margin = 23.17% (Net Income TTM 77.9m / Revenue TTM 336.3m)
Gross Margin = 74.64% ((Revenue TTM 336.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 85.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.17% (prev 79.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 1.22b / Total Assets 8.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 46.07% (Interest Expense 87.0m / Debt 188.7m)
Taxrate = 14.50% (13.2m / 91.1m)
NOPAT = 40.3m (EBIT 47.2m * (1 - 14.50%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 125.6m / Total Current Liabilities 166.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 188.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.70 (Net Debt 86.2m / EBITDA 50.7m)
Debt / FCF = 1.03 (Net Debt 86.2m / FCF TTM 83.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.01% (Net Income 77.9m / Total Assets 8.43b)
RoE = 7.69% (Net Income TTM 77.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 3.93% (EBIT 47.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 188.7m))
RoIC = 0.48% (NOPAT 40.3m / Invested Capital 8.41b)
WACC = 12.70% (E(1.13b)/V(1.32b) * Re(8.24%) + D(188.7m)/V(1.32b) * Rd(46.07%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 8.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 62.19 | Cagr: 6.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.16% ; FCFF base≈83.1m ; Y1≈84.8m ; Y5≈92.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.10 (EV 826.6m - Net Debt 86.2m = Equity 740.4m / Shares 40.9m; r=12.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.04% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 33.42 | EPS CAGR: 8.65% | SUE: 0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.76 | Revenue CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: -0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.30% | Revisions=-44% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.34 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+4.4% | GrowthRev=+36.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.63 | Chg30d=-0.63% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+12.6% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=3, down=15)