HLIT Stock Analysis: Harmonic | NASDAQ
Communication Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.154m USD | 12M Return: 3.7% | US4131601027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.5M
EPS Trend: 55.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -39.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) is a U.S.-based provider of broadband access solutions for cable and telco operators worldwide. Its offerings center on a software-based platform called cOS, delivered as a virtualized, cloud-native solution, alongside a hardware portfolio that includes Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) nodes, Remote PHY devices, and OLT modules for fiber networks. The company also generates recurring revenue through cOS Central cloud services, a subscription offering, and provides technical support, consulting, integration, and professional services. Harmonic sells through a direct sales force as well as independent resellers and systems integrators. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California, and trades on NASDAQ as a small-cap stock in the Information Technology sector.
Harmonic operates within the Communications Equipment sub-industry, serving broadband service providers that supply internet, video, and voice services. Its product line addresses two converging infrastructure trends in the cable industry: the shift toward DAA and virtualized headends, which push data processing closer to subscribers and replace traditional CMTS/CCAP hardware with software-centric, fiber-deep architectures, and the deployment of next-generation fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks. The combination of hardware sales, software licensing, and subscription cloud services gives Harmonic exposure to both one-time equipment spending and recurring service revenue from operator customers.
- DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle boosts cable broadband orders
- cOS software subscriptions expand recurring revenue base
- Telco fiber buildouts drive OLT module demand
| Net Income: -47.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 56.53% < 20% (prev 24.76%; Δ 31.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 62.3m > Net Income -47.1m |
| Net Debt (-82.2m) to EBITDA (68.0m): -1.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.7m) vs 12m ago -3.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.71% > 18% (prev 54.62%; Δ -3.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.02% > 50% (prev 87.97%; Δ -17.94% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM 57.1m / Interest Expense TTM 3.74m) |
| A: 0.44 (Total Current Assets 417.2m - Total Current Liabilities 136.9m) / Total Assets 632.6m |
| B: -3.34 (Retained Earnings -2.11b / Total Assets 632.6m) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 57.1m / Avg Total Assets 708.0m) |
| D: 1.32 (Book Value of Equity 360.3m / Total Liabilities 272.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.06 = D |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 89.9m/124.9m, Revenue 495.8m/689.1m) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 54.62% / 50.71%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 0.72 (Revenue 495.8m / 689.1m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -47.1m - CFO 62.3m) / TA 632.6m) |
| Beneish M = -3.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.56 with a total of 1,392,850 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.91%, over one month by -11.85%, over three months by -35.33% and over the past year by +3.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.40 (which is 11% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Harmonic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.57. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HLIT.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 16.1 | 52.8% |
P/E Trailing = 46.0
P/E Forward = 18.8324
P/S = 2.5996
P/B = 3.3233
P/EG = 1.8405
Revenue TTM = 495.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 57.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 68.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 107.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.93m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 149.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.5m
Net Debt = -82.2m USD (calculated: Debt 149.6m - CCE 231.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.07b USD (1.15b + Debt 149.6m - CCE 231.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.26 (Ebit TTM 57.1m / Interest Expense TTM 3.74m)
EV/FCF = 19.88x (Enterprise Value 1.07b / FCF TTM 53.9m)
FCF Yield = 5.03% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Enterprise Value 1.07b)
FCF Margin = 10.87% (FCF TTM 53.9m / Revenue TTM 495.8m)
Net Margin = -9.51% (Net Income TTM -47.1m / Revenue TTM 495.8m)
Gross Margin = 50.71% ((Revenue TTM 495.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 244.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.37% (prev 52.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.69 (Enterprise Value 1.07b / Total Assets 632.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.50% (Interest Expense 3.74m / Debt 149.6m)
Taxrate = 41.56% (22.2m / 53.4m)
NOPAT = 33.4m (EBIT 57.1m * (1 - 41.56%))
Current Ratio = 3.05 (Total Current Assets 417.2m / Total Current Liabilities 136.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 149.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 360.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.21 (Net Debt -82.2m / EBITDA 68.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.53 (Net Debt -82.2m / FCF TTM 53.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 385.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.66% (Net Income -47.1m / Total Assets 632.6m)
RoE = -12.23% (Net Income TTM -47.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 385.4m)
RoCE = 11.58% (EBIT 57.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 385.4m + L.T.Debt 107.7m))
RoIC = 6.96% (NOPAT 33.4m / Invested Capital 479.9m)
WACC = 11.11% (E(1.15b)/V(1.30b) * Re(12.36%) + D(149.6m)/V(1.30b) * Rd(2.50%) * (1-Tc(0.42)))
Discount Rate = 12.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -61.58 | Cagr: -1.06%
[DCF] Terminal Value 63.54% ; FCFF base≈79.6m ; Y1≈69.8m ; Y5≈56.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.48 (EV 624.1m - Net Debt -82.2m = Equity 706.3m / Shares 109.1m; r=11.11% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 55.01 | EPS CAGR: 59.39% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -39.00 | Revenue CAGR: -5.09% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+230.7% | GrowthRev=+43.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+13.0% | GrowthRev=+10.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +82% (up=14, down=0)