(HLMN) Hillman Solutions - NASDAQ

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Tools & Accessories | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.566m USD | Total Return: 15.7% in 12m

Fasteners, Hardware, Keys, Signage, Plumbing Fittings
Total Rating 31
Safety 78
Buy Signal -0.73
Tools & Accessories
Industry Rotation: +7.2
Market Cap: 1.57B
Avg Turnover: 12.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility33.9%
VaR 5th Pctl5.56%
VaR vs Median-0.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.45
Rel. Str. IBD20.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group25.8
Character TTM
Beta0.868
Beta Downside1.143
Hurst Exponent0.575
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD42.29%
CAGR/Max DD-0.11
CAGR/Mean DD-0.28
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of HLMN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -1.82, "2021-09": 0.04, "2021-12": 0.06, "2022-03": 0.09, "2022-06": 0.14, "2022-09": 0.14, "2022-12": 0.05, "2023-03": 0.06, "2023-06": 0.13, "2023-09": 0.11, "2023-12": 0.1, "2024-03": 0.1, "2024-06": 0.16, "2024-09": 0.16, "2024-12": 0.1, "2025-03": 0.1, "2025-06": 0.17, "2025-09": 0.22, "2025-12": 0.1, "2026-03": 0.07,
EPS CAGR: 19.80%
EPS Trend: 93.6%
Last SUE: -2.87
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of HLMN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 375.715, 2021-09: 364.48, 2021-12: 344.491, 2022-03: 363.013, 2022-06: 394.114, 2022-09: 378.538, 2022-12: 350.663, 2023-03: 349.707, 2023-06: 380.019, 2023-09: 398.943, 2023-12: 347.808, 2024-03: 350.305, 2024-06: 379.432, 2024-09: 393.296, 2024-12: 349.562, 2025-03: 359.343, 2025-06: 402.803, 2025-09: 424.939, 2025-12: 365.139, 2026-03: 370.073,
Rev. CAGR: 2.23%
Rev. Trend: 85.6%
Last SUE: -0.26
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Fakeout

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: HLMN Hillman Solutions

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a North American distributor of hardware-related products, specializing in fasteners, automotive components, and merchandising services. The company manages a vast portfolio of proprietary brands, including Power Pro and OOK, across a diverse catalog that spans plumbing, electrical, and home improvement categories. Its business model relies on high-volume distribution to big-box retailers and hardware stores, often integrating complex logistical services such as in-store merchandising and category management.

The industrial distribution sector is characterized by high fragmentation and a reliance on efficient supply chain management to maintain margins. Hillman differentiates itself by providing specialized retail services, such as key duplication and automated engraving kiosks, which create recurring service revenue alongside physical product sales. Investors should examine ValueRay for deeper insights into the companys valuation metrics and market position. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, the firm operates extensively throughout the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Repair and remodel market demand drives core hardware and fastener volume
  • Big box retail partnerships concentrate revenue through Home Depot and Lowes
  • Input cost fluctuations in steel and logistics impact gross profit margins
  • Expansion of automated key duplication kiosks scales high-margin service revenue
  • Strategic acquisitions consolidate market share in the fragmented home improvement sector
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0
Net Income: 35.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.32 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 28.33% < 20% (prev 23.42%; Δ 4.91% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 211.0m > Net Income 35.9m
Net Debt (868.0m) to EBITDA (249.7m): 3.48 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.95 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (196.6m) vs 12m ago -0.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: 46.10% > 18% (prev 47.90%; Δ -1.80% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 66.62% > 50% (prev 63.56%; Δ 3.06% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 106.2m / Interest Expense TTM 55.0m)
Altman Z'' 2.40
A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 669.9m - Total Current Liabilities 227.1m) / Total Assets 2.36b
B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -183.4m / Total Assets 2.36b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 106.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.35b)
D: 1.06 (Book Value of Equity 1.22b / Total Liabilities 1.15b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.40 = BBB
Beneish M -3.00
DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 138.8m/134.2m, Revenue 1.56b/1.48b)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 47.90% / 46.10%)
AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.59 / AQ_t-1 0.62)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 1.56b / 1.48b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 35.9m - CFO 211.0m) / TA 2.36b)
Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of HLMN shares?

As of June 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.74 with a total of 1,711,489 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.03%, over one month by +7.80%, over three months by -4.56% and over the past year by +15.70%.

Is HLMN a buy, sell or hold?

Hillman Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HLMN.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HLMN price?
Analysts Target Price 12.1 56.7%
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 June 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.57b (1.57b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 44.3333
P/E Forward = 13.2979
P/S = 1.0018
P/B = 1.2876
Revenue TTM = 1.56b USD
EBIT TTM = 106.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 249.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 714.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 34.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 895.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 83.4m
Net Debt = 868.0m USD (calculated: Debt 895.7m - CCE 27.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.43b USD (1.57b + Debt 895.7m - CCE 27.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.93 (Ebit TTM 106.2m / Interest Expense TTM 55.0m)
EV/FCF = 26.60x (Enterprise Value 2.43b / FCF TTM 91.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.76% (FCF TTM 91.5m / Enterprise Value 2.43b)
FCF Margin = 5.85% (FCF TTM 91.5m / Revenue TTM 1.56b)
Net Margin = 2.30% (Net Income TTM 35.9m / Revenue TTM 1.56b)
Gross Margin = 46.10% ((Revenue TTM 1.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 842.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.55% (prev 37.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 2.43b / Total Assets 2.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.14% (Interest Expense 55.0m / Debt 895.7m)
Taxrate = 29.84% (15.3m / 51.2m)
NOPAT = 74.5m (EBIT 106.2m * (1 - 29.84%))
Current Ratio = 2.95 (Total Current Assets 669.9m / Total Current Liabilities 227.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 895.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.48 (Net Debt 868.0m / EBITDA 249.7m)
Debt / FCF = 9.49 (Net Debt 868.0m / FCF TTM 91.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.53% (Net Income 35.9m / Total Assets 2.36b)
RoE = 2.94% (Net Income TTM 35.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.22b)
RoCE = 5.49% (EBIT 106.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.22b + L.T.Debt 714.1m))
RoIC = 3.48% (NOPAT 74.5m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 7.31% (E(1.57b)/V(2.46b) * Re(9.03%) + D(895.7m)/V(2.46b) * Rd(6.14%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 42.22 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.70% ; FCFF base≈88.0m ; Y1≈96.0m ; Y5≈119.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.92 (EV 1.83b - Net Debt 868.0m = Equity 965.4m / Shares 196.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.59 | EPS CAGR: 19.80% | SUE: -2.87 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 85.59 | Revenue CAGR: 2.23% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+1.19% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+1.31% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=+0.92% | Revisions=-14% | GrowthEPS=+0.5% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=-0.95% | Revisions=-14% | GrowthEPS=+20.1% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25%