HPK Stock Analysis: HighPeak Energy | NASDAQ
Oil & Gas E&P | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.039m USD | 12M Return: 18.6% | US43114Q1058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.87M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -87.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves. It was founded in 2019, is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, and completed its IPO on August 24, 2020. The Permian Basin is one of the most prolific oil-producing regions in the United States, known for its multiple stacked pay zones and well-established infrastructure, which has made it a focal point for independent E&P operators. As a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $960 million, HighPeak Energy operates in a sector characterized by significant price volatility tied to global crude oil and natural gas markets.
- WTI crude prices swing Permian Basin revenue and margins
- Natural gas and NGL pricing pressures realized wellhead economics
- Production growth in Howard County offsets weaker commodity pricing
| Net Income: -88.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.89% < 20% (prev -1.92%; Δ -2.98% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 393.9m > Net Income -88.7m |
| Net Debt (1.04b) to EBITDA (421.1m): 2.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (126.4m) vs 12m ago 0.25% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.77% > 18% (prev 32.85%; Δ 0.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.92% > 50% (prev 31.21%; Δ -4.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM -21.2m / Interest Expense TTM 142.6m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 264.3m - Total Current Liabilities 305.5m) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: 0.12 (Retained Earnings 387.4m / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -21.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.13b) |
| D: 0.96 (Book Value of Equity 1.55b / Total Liabilities 1.62b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.27 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 75.0m/71.4m, Revenue 843.0m/964.2m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 32.85% / 33.77%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 843.0m / 964.2m) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -88.7m - CFO 393.9m) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.52 with a total of 633,436 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.41%, over one month by +4.54%, over three months by +28.70% and over the past year by +18.55%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.80 (which is 8.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
HighPeak Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HPK.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10 | 17.4% |
P/E Forward = 10.6045
P/S = 1.2046
P/B = 0.6432
Revenue TTM = 843.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -21.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 421.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.07b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 120.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 523k
Net Debt = 1.04b USD (calculated: Debt 1.19b - CCE 146.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.08b USD (1.04b + Debt 1.19b - CCE 146.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.15 (Ebit TTM -21.2m / Interest Expense TTM 142.6m)
EV/FCF = -141.4x (Enterprise Value 2.08b / FCF TTM -14.7m)
FCF Yield = -0.71% (FCF TTM -14.7m / Enterprise Value 2.08b)
FCF Margin = -1.75% (FCF TTM -14.7m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Net Margin = -10.52% (Net Income TTM -88.7m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Gross Margin = 33.77% ((Revenue TTM 843.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 558.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.83% (prev 19.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.66 (Enterprise Value 2.08b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.98% (Interest Expense 142.6m / Debt 1.19b)
Taxrate = 16.66% (16.4m / 98.7m)
NOPAT = -17.6m (EBIT -21.2m * (1 - 16.66%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 264.3m / Total Current Liabilities 305.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 1.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.55b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.48 (Net Debt 1.04b / EBITDA 421.1m)
Debt / FCF = -70.83 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.04b / FCF TTM -14.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.56b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.83% (Net Income -88.7m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = -5.69% (Net Income TTM -88.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.56b)
RoCE = -0.80% (EBIT -21.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.56b + L.T.Debt 1.07b))
RoIC = -0.60% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -17.6m / Invested Capital 2.95b)
WACC = 9.41% (E(1.04b)/V(2.23b) * Re(8.74%) + D(1.19b)/V(2.23b) * Rd(11.98%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.89 | Cagr: -1.12%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -14.7m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -87.26 | Revenue CAGR: -13.75% | SUE: 2.00 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.16 | Chg30d=-113.33% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-167.6% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.29 | Chg30d=-31.82% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-81.2% | GrowthRev=-16.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)