(HRMY) Harmony Biosciences Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Wakix, Pitolisant, BP1.15205, HBS-102, Zyn-002
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 66.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.20% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.66 |
| Alpha | 14.30 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.617 |
| Beta | 0.520 |
| Beta Downside | 0.491 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.46% |
| Mean DD | 39.99% |
| Median DD | 41.13% |
Description: HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings November 10, 2025
Harmony Biosciences Holdings (NASDAQ: HRMY) is a commercial-stage biotech focused on rare-neurology therapeutics in the U.S. Its flagship product, WAKIX (pitolisant), is an orexin-2 receptor antagonist approved for excessive daytime sleepiness in adult narcolepsy. The company is expanding the pitolisant platform into Phase 3 for Prader-Willi syndrome, Phase 2 for myotonic dystrophy type 1, and early-stage formulations (GR and HD). Additional pipelines include an orexin-2 agonist (BP1.15205), an MCHR1 antagonist (HBS-102), a transdermal cannabidiol (ZYN-002) in Phase 3 for Fragile X and 22q-Deletion syndromes, and serotonin-based agents (EPX-100, EPX-200) targeting severe epileptic encephalopathies.
Key metrics (as of the most recent 10-Q) show cash and equivalents of roughly $70 million, giving the firm ~12 months of runway at current burn rates. WAKIX generated ≈ $30 million in 2023 sales, reflecting a modest but growing share of the U.S. narcolepsy market, which is projected to reach > $1 billion by 2028 (≈ 9 % CAGR). The broader rare-neurology sector benefits from higher pricing power and accelerated regulatory pathways, supporting premium valuation multiples for companies with multiple late-stage candidates.
If you want a data-rich snapshot of HRMY’s valuation, risk profile, and peer benchmarks, the ValueRay platform provides a concise, actionable overview that can help you assess whether the upside justifies the current uncertainty.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (185.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 49.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.25 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.85pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 74.51% (prev 52.96%; Δ 21.55pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 (>3.0%) and CFO 297.6m > Net Income 185.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-477.3m) to EBITDA (266.0m) ratio: -1.79 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (58.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.06% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 77.70% (prev 78.65%; Δ -0.96pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 77.32% (prev 73.47%; Δ 3.86pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 15.81 (EBITDA TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.63
| (A) 0.51 = (Total Current Assets 838.8m - Total Current Liabilities 223.4m) / Total Assets 1.21b |
| (B) 0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 138.4m / Total Assets 1.21b |
| (C) 0.23 = EBIT TTM 242.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.07b |
| (D) 0.37 = Book Value of Equity 138.8m / Total Liabilities 373.1m |
| Total Rating: 5.63 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 91.90
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 19.25% |
| 3. FCF Margin 35.95% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.20 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.79 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 12.37)% |
| 7. RoE 24.86% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.54% |
| 9. EPS Trend 32.24% |
What is the price of HRMY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.71%, over one month by +20.78%, over three months by +25.07% and over the past year by +27.15%.
Is HRMY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HRMY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 46.2 | 14% |
| Analysts Target Price | 46.2 | 14% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 43 | 6.1% |
HRMY Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 11.2019
P/E Forward = 7.9239
P/S = 2.4763
P/B = 2.4339
Beta = 0.821
Revenue TTM = 825.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 242.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 266.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 169.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -477.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.54b USD (2.05b + Debt 169.7m - CCE 672.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.81 (Ebit TTM 242.2m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m)
FCF Yield = 19.25% (FCF TTM 296.9m / Enterprise Value 1.54b)
FCF Margin = 35.95% (FCF TTM 296.9m / Revenue TTM 825.9m)
Net Margin = 22.48% (Net Income TTM 185.7m / Revenue TTM 825.9m)
Gross Margin = 77.70% ((Revenue TTM 825.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 184.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.09% (prev 80.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 1.54b / Total Assets 1.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.13% (Interest Expense 3.62m / Debt 169.7m)
Taxrate = 24.63% (16.6m / 67.5m)
NOPAT = 182.5m (EBIT 242.2m * (1 - 24.63%))
Current Ratio = 3.75 (Total Current Assets 838.8m / Total Current Liabilities 223.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 169.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 835.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.79 (Net Debt -477.3m / EBITDA 266.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.61 (Net Debt -477.3m / FCF TTM 296.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 747.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.37% (Net Income 185.7m / Total Assets 1.21b)
RoE = 24.86% (Net Income TTM 185.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 747.0m)
RoCE = 27.04% (EBIT 242.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 747.0m + L.T.Debt 148.5m))
RoIC = 19.82% (NOPAT 182.5m / Invested Capital 920.9m)
WACC = 7.45% (E(2.05b)/V(2.21b) * Re(7.93%) + D(169.7m)/V(2.21b) * Rd(2.13%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈266.2m ; Y1≈328.4m ; Y5≈560.3m
Fair Price DCF = 165.5 (DCF Value 9.53b / Shares Outstanding 57.6m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 32.24 | EPS CAGR: 32.12% | SUE: 1.91 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.54 | Revenue CAGR: 29.35% | SUE: 3.84 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.62 | Chg30d=+0.328 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+38.8% | Growth Revenue=+16.2%
Additional Sources for HRMY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle