(HRMY) Harmony Biosciences Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Wakix, Pitolisant, Orexin-Agonist, MCHR1-Antagonist, ZYN-002
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 66.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.01 |
| Alpha | -15.14 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.455 |
| Beta | 0.553 |
| Beta Downside | 0.376 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.25% |
| Mean DD | 31.81% |
| Median DD | 31.98% |
Description: HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings January 13, 2026
Harmony Biosciences Holdings (NASDAQ:HRMY) is a commercial-stage biotech that targets rare and neurological disorders in the U.S., leveraging a pipeline centered on orexin-based and melanin-concentrating-hormone mechanisms.
Its only FDA-approved product, WAKIX (pitolisant), treats excessive daytime sleepiness in adult narcolepsy and generated ≈ $45 million in 2023 net sales, representing the bulk of HRMY’s revenue. The company is expanding pitolisant into new indications: Phase 3 for Prader-Willi Syndrome, Phase 2 for Myotonic Dystrophy (DM1), and early-stage Phase 1 programs for a gastro-resistant and high-dose formulation. Additional pipeline assets include BP1.15205 (orexin-2 agonist), HBS-102 (MCHR1 antagonist), ZYN-002 (Phase 3 for Fragile X and 22q-Deletion syndromes), EPX-100 (serotonin 5-HT2 agonist for Dravet and Lennox-Gastaut), and EPX-200 (lorcaserin liquid for DEE).
Key financial signals as of Q2 2024: cash and equivalents of ≈ $190 million, a runway extending into 2025, and a net loss of $68 million YoY, reflecting heavy R&D spend. The rare-disease neurology market is projected to grow at ~6% CAGR through 2030, driven by unmet needs and premium pricing, which underpins HRMY’s revenue upside if its pipeline clears regulatory milestones.
For a deeper, data-driven look at HRMY’s valuation and comparable peers, ValueRay’s analyst notes provide a concise, decision-ready overview.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 185.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 74.51% < 20% (prev 52.96%; Δ 21.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 297.6m > Net Income 185.7m |
| Net Debt (-477.3m) to EBITDA (266.0m): -1.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.7m) vs 12m ago 1.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 77.70% > 18% (prev 0.79%; Δ 7691 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.32% > 50% (prev 73.47%; Δ 3.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.81 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m) |
Altman Z'' 5.63
| A: 0.51 (Total Current Assets 838.8m - Total Current Liabilities 223.4m) / Total Assets 1.21b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 138.4m / Total Assets 1.21b) |
| C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 242.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.07b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 138.8m / Total Liabilities 373.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.63 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.12
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 100.7m/81.5m, Revenue 825.9m/681.9m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 77.70% / 78.65%) |
| AQI: 0.70 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 825.9m / 681.9m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 185.7m - CFO 297.6m) / TA 1.21b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HRMY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.41%, over one month by -2.82%, over three months by +24.29% and over the past year by -4.11%.
Is HRMY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HRMY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 46.5 | 26.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 46.5 | 26.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.6 | 7.5% |
HRMY Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.3893
P/S = 2.6276
P/B = 2.5766
Revenue TTM = 825.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 242.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 266.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 169.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -477.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.67b USD (2.17b + Debt 169.7m - CCE 672.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.81 (Ebit TTM 242.2m / Interest Expense TTM 15.3m)
EV/FCF = 5.62x (Enterprise Value 1.67b / FCF TTM 296.9m)
FCF Yield = 17.81% (FCF TTM 296.9m / Enterprise Value 1.67b)
FCF Margin = 35.95% (FCF TTM 296.9m / Revenue TTM 825.9m)
Net Margin = 22.48% (Net Income TTM 185.7m / Revenue TTM 825.9m)
Gross Margin = 77.70% ((Revenue TTM 825.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 184.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.09% (prev 80.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 1.67b / Total Assets 1.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.13% (Interest Expense 3.62m / Debt 169.7m)
Taxrate = 24.63% (16.6m / 67.5m)
NOPAT = 182.5m (EBIT 242.2m * (1 - 24.63%))
Current Ratio = 3.75 (Total Current Assets 838.8m / Total Current Liabilities 223.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 169.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 835.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.79 (Net Debt -477.3m / EBITDA 266.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.61 (Net Debt -477.3m / FCF TTM 296.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 747.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.38% (Net Income 185.7m / Total Assets 1.21b)
RoE = 24.86% (Net Income TTM 185.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 747.0m)
RoCE = 27.04% (EBIT 242.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 747.0m + L.T.Debt 148.5m))
RoIC = 19.82% (NOPAT 182.5m / Invested Capital 920.9m)
WACC = 7.49% (E(2.17b)/V(2.34b) * Re(7.95%) + D(169.7m)/V(2.34b) * Rd(2.13%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.94% ; FCFF base≈266.2m ; Y1≈328.4m ; Y5≈559.3m
Fair Price DCF = 191.2 (EV 10.53b - Net Debt -477.3m = Equity 11.01b / Shares 57.6m; r=7.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 32.24 | EPS CAGR: 32.12% | SUE: 1.91 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.54 | Revenue CAGR: 29.35% | SUE: 3.84 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=+0.099 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.38 | Chg30d=-0.235 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+32.8% | Growth Revenue=+16.5%