(HTBK) Heritage Commerce - Ratings and Ratios
Deposits, Loans, Mortgages, Treasury, Digital
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.18% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.03% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 64.2% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 41.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.61% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.25 |
| Alpha | 25.53 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.581 |
| Beta | 0.793 |
| Beta Downside | 0.977 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.84% |
| Mean DD | 22.04% |
| Median DD | 20.96% |
Description: HTBK Heritage Commerce December 26, 2025
Heritage Commerce Corp (NASDAQ: HTBK) is the holding company for Heritage Bank of Commerce, a California-focused community bank that serves both retail customers and businesses. Its product suite includes demand, savings and money-market deposits, CDs, and a full range of loan offerings-from working-capital and equipment financing to commercial real-estate, SBA, multifamily, residential mortgage, and consumer auto loans. The bank also provides typical banking services such as online bill pay, remote deposit capture, cash management, and safe-deposit boxes.
As of the latest quarterly filing (Q4 2023), HTBK reported total assets of roughly $4.2 billion and a loan-to-deposit ratio of about 78%, indicating a relatively conservative balance-sheet stance compared with the regional-bank average of ~85%. Its net interest margin (NIM) held near 3.2%, supported by the Federal Reserve’s higher policy rates, while loan growth slowed to ~2% YoY amid California’s tight housing market and elevated construction costs. A key sector driver is the state’s commercial-real-estate outlook; a 5%-10% decline in office vacancy rates could materially boost loan-loss provisions, whereas a rebound in small-business activity would lift fee income.
For a deeper, data-driven view of HTBK’s valuation and risk profile, you might find the analytics on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (43.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 15.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.72pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -1386 % (prev -1445 %; Δ 59.54pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 57.5m > Net Income 43.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-708.0m) to EBITDA (63.8m) ratio: -11.10 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.23 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (61.6m) change vs 12m ago 0.12% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 70.60% (prev 68.81%; Δ 1.79pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 4.75% (prev 4.41%; Δ 0.34pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.80 (EBITDA TTM 63.8m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -3.95
| (A) -0.65 = (Total Current Assets 1.10b - Total Current Liabilities 4.78b) / Total Assets 5.62b |
| (B) 0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 196.5m / Total Assets 5.62b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 60.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.59b |
| (D) 0.14 = Book Value of Equity 700.0m / Total Liabilities 4.92b |
| Total Rating: -3.95 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.59
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -17.78% |
| 3. FCF Margin 21.55% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.06 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -11.10 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.27)% |
| 7. RoE 6.23% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 87.03% |
| 9. EPS Trend -50.02% |
What is the price of HTBK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.56%, over one month by +7.99%, over three months by +26.19% and over the past year by +42.82%.
Is HTBK a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HTBK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13 | 4.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13 | 4.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.7 | 10.5% |
HTBK Fundamental Data Overview January 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.2286
P/E Forward = 11.0497
P/S = 3.9412
P/B = 1.0523
P/EG = 1.88
Beta = 0.8
Revenue TTM = 265.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 60.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 63.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 39.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 24.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 39.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -708.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -321.5m USD (739.7m + Debt 39.8m - CCE 1.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.80 (Ebit TTM 60.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m)
FCF Yield = -17.78% (FCF TTM 57.2m / Enterprise Value -321.5m)
FCF Margin = 21.55% (FCF TTM 57.2m / Revenue TTM 265.2m)
Net Margin = 16.34% (Net Income TTM 43.3m / Revenue TTM 265.2m)
Gross Margin = 70.60% ((Revenue TTM 265.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.14% (prev 71.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.06 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -321.5m / Total Assets 5.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 46.03% (Interest Expense 18.3m / Debt 39.8m)
Taxrate = 28.52% (5.87m / 20.6m)
NOPAT = 43.3m (EBIT 60.6m * (1 - 28.52%))
Current Ratio = 0.23 (Total Current Assets 1.10b / Total Current Liabilities 4.78b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 39.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 700.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -11.10 (Net Debt -708.0m / EBITDA 63.8m)
Debt / FCF = -12.39 (Net Debt -708.0m / FCF TTM 57.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 695.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.77% (Net Income 43.3m / Total Assets 5.62b)
RoE = 6.23% (Net Income TTM 43.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 695.2m)
RoCE = 8.24% (EBIT 60.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 695.2m + L.T.Debt 39.8m))
RoIC = 5.89% (NOPAT 43.3m / Invested Capital 734.9m)
WACC = 10.16% (E(739.7m)/V(779.4m) * Re(8.94%) + D(39.8m)/V(779.4m) * Rd(46.03%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 8.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.69% ; FCFE base≈40.9m ; Y1≈45.4m ; Y5≈59.4m
Fair Price DCF = 14.27 (DCF Value 875.1m / Shares Outstanding 61.3m; 5y FCF grow 12.66% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -50.02 | EPS CAGR: 1.14% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 87.03 | Revenue CAGR: 12.81% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=-0.009 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+8.5% | Growth Revenue=+6.9%
Additional Sources for HTBK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle