INNV Stock Analysis: InnovAge Holding | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.627m USD | 12M Return: 181.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.54M
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 99.9%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) operates as a healthcare provider specializing in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) model. Headquartered in Denver, the company delivers integrated medical and social services to seniors across Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Its service suite includes primary care, physical and occupational therapies, mental health services, and specialized transportation designed to help high-need seniors maintain independence in their homes rather than transitioning to nursing facilities.
The PACE model is a unique capitated healthcare delivery system where providers receive fixed monthly payments from Medicare and Medicaid to cover the total cost of a participant’s care. This value-based care approach incentivizes providers to prioritize preventative treatments and efficient care management to reduce expensive hospitalizations. Investors may find ValueRay useful for analyzing how these reimbursement structures impact long-term margins. Founded in 1989, InnovAge serves as one of the largest private PACE providers in the United States healthcare services sector.
- Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rate changes directly impact net revenue margins
- Participant enrollment growth across key states drives top-line scale and profitability
- Regulatory compliance and audit outcomes dictate operational standing and market expansion
- Medical cost ratio fluctuations driven by participant acuity levels influence earnings
- Labor shortages and rising clinical wages increase operating expenses for PACE centers
| Net Income: -22.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.71% < 20% (prev -5.91%; Δ 6.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 50.3m > Net Income -22.2m |
| Net Debt (-8.87m) to EBITDA (4.36m): -2.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (135.7m) vs 12m ago 0.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.75% > 18% (prev 17.91%; Δ 2.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 174.5% > 50% (prev 155.0%; Δ 19.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.47 > 6 (EBIT TTM -15.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.55m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 202.6m - Total Current Liabilities 195.9m) / Total Assets 547.4m |
| B: -0.20 (Retained Earnings -111.9m / Total Assets 547.4m) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -15.8m / Avg Total Assets 542.0m) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 229.0m / Total Liabilities 288.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.05 = B |
| DSRI: 0.59 (Receivables 32.0m/47.7m, Revenue 945.9m/831.7m) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 17.91% / 20.75%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 945.9m / 831.7m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI -22.2m - CFO 50.3m) / TA 547.4m) |
| Beneish M = -3.42 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.89 with a total of 153,748 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.54%, over one month by +54.62%, over three months by +40.05% and over the past year by +181.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.10 (which is 6.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
InnovAge Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold INNV.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7 | -41.1% |
P/E Forward = 13.6612
P/S = 1.7146
P/B = 6.9282
Revenue TTM = 945.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -15.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.36m USD
Long Term Debt = 55.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 129.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 35.9m
Net Debt = -8.87m USD (calculated: Debt 129.7m - CCE 138.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.62b USD (1.63b + Debt 129.7m - CCE 138.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.47 (Ebit TTM -15.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.55m)
EV/FCF = 41.64x (Enterprise Value 1.62b / FCF TTM 38.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.40% (FCF TTM 38.9m / Enterprise Value 1.62b)
FCF Margin = 4.11% (FCF TTM 38.9m / Revenue TTM 945.9m)
Net Margin = -2.35% (Net Income TTM -22.2m / Revenue TTM 945.9m)
Gross Margin = 20.75% ((Revenue TTM 945.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 749.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.31% (prev 20.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.96 (Enterprise Value 1.62b / Total Assets 547.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.51% (Interest Expense 4.55m / Debt 129.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -12.5m (EBIT -15.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 202.6m / Total Current Liabilities 195.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 129.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 229.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.04 (Net Debt -8.87m / EBITDA 4.36m)
Debt / FCF = -0.23 (Net Debt -8.87m / FCF TTM 38.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 241.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.10% (Net Income -22.2m / Total Assets 547.4m)
RoE = -9.20% (Net Income TTM -22.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 241.4m)
RoCE = -5.33% (EBIT -15.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 241.4m + L.T.Debt 55.4m))
RoIC = -3.95% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -12.5m / Invested Capital 316.5m)
WACC = 9.20% (E(1.63b)/V(1.76b) * Re(9.71%) + D(129.7m)/V(1.76b) * Rd(3.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -27.60 | Cagr: -0.06%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.27% ; FCFF base≈29.7m ; Y1≈34.1m ; Y5≈50.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.90 (EV 656.5m - Net Debt -8.87m = Equity 665.4m / Shares 135.7m; r=9.20% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 99.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.26% | SUE: 3.33 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+33.33% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+461.6% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=+11.76% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+5.6% | GrowthRev=+7.0%