(ITRI) Itron - Ratings and Ratios
Smart Meters, AMI, Grid Sensors, Analytics, SaaS
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 50.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.91% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.35 |
| Alpha | -28.80 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.525 |
| Beta | 0.987 |
| Beta Downside | 0.989 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.94% |
| Mean DD | 9.37% |
| Median DD | 8.03% |
Description: ITRI Itron November 06, 2025
Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) is a technology-focused provider of end-to-end hardware, software and services that enable utilities and municipalities to measure, manage and optimize energy, water and smart-city operations. The company organizes its business into three segments: Device Solutions (metering hardware for gas, electricity, water and heat), Networked Solutions (communicating devices, IoT infrastructure, AMI, DER management and smart-city sensors) and Outcomes (AI/ML-driven analytics, SaaS, consulting and extended-service warranties).
According to Itron’s FY 2023 Form 10-K, total revenue was approximately $2.2 billion, with the Networked Solutions segment contributing roughly 55 % of sales and showing a year-over-year growth rate of 7 %. The company reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 12 % and generated free cash flow of about $300 million, indicating a solid cash conversion profile for a capital-intensive technology business.
Key macro drivers for Itron include the accelerating digital transformation of utilities (driven by regulatory mandates for advanced metering infrastructure), increasing capital spending on grid-edge and renewable integration, and the broader ESG push that incentivizes water-loss detection and energy-efficiency programs. A baseline industry analysis suggests that global AMI deployments are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of ~9 % through 2028, providing a favorable tail-end growth runway for firms like Itron.
If you want a data-rich, model-based view of ITRI’s valuation and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers tools that can help you quantify these upside and downside factors.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (257.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 144.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 48.03% (prev 51.27%; Δ -3.24pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 364.5m > Net Income 257.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-62.2m) to EBITDA (364.9m) ratio: -0.17 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.17 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (46.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.79% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 36.30% (prev 34.17%; Δ 2.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 68.07% (prev 71.47%; Δ -3.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 13.94 (EBITDA TTM 364.9m / Interest Expense TTM 22.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.54
| (A) 0.31 = (Total Current Assets 2.14b - Total Current Liabilities 987.4m) / Total Assets 3.71b |
| (B) 0.00 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 10.1m / Total Assets 3.71b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 313.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.54b |
| (D) 0.85 = Book Value of Equity 1.69b / Total Liabilities 2.00b |
| Total Rating: 3.54 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.63
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.80% |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.10% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.75 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.17 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.63)% |
| 7. RoE 16.65% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 85.56% |
| 9. EPS Trend 77.70% |
What is the price of ITRI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.73%, over one month by -8.30%, over three months by -19.54% and over the past year by -14.10%.
Is ITRI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ITRI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 140.2 | 45.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 140.2 | 45.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 97.7 | 1.6% |
ITRI Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 17.3196
P/E Forward = 15.7729
P/S = 1.8346
P/B = 2.5622
P/EG = 0.5255
Beta = 1.524
Revenue TTM = 2.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 313.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 364.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 787.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 458.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.27b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -62.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.36b USD (4.42b + Debt 1.27b - CCE 1.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.94 (Ebit TTM 313.4m / Interest Expense TTM 22.5m)
FCF Yield = 7.80% (FCF TTM 339.7m / Enterprise Value 4.36b)
FCF Margin = 14.10% (FCF TTM 339.7m / Revenue TTM 2.41b)
Net Margin = 10.69% (Net Income TTM 257.5m / Revenue TTM 2.41b)
Gross Margin = 36.30% ((Revenue TTM 2.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.75% (prev 36.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 4.36b / Total Assets 3.71b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.44% (Interest Expense 5.65m / Debt 1.27b)
Taxrate = 26.99% (24.5m / 90.7m)
NOPAT = 228.8m (EBIT 313.4m * (1 - 26.99%))
Current Ratio = 2.17 (Total Current Assets 2.14b / Total Current Liabilities 987.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 1.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.17 (Net Debt -62.2m / EBITDA 364.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.18 (Net Debt -62.2m / FCF TTM 339.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.94% (Net Income 257.5m / Total Assets 3.71b)
RoE = 16.65% (Net Income TTM 257.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.55b)
RoCE = 13.43% (EBIT 313.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.55b + L.T.Debt 787.9m))
RoIC = 8.20% (NOPAT 228.8m / Invested Capital 2.79b)
WACC = 7.57% (E(4.42b)/V(5.69b) * Re(9.65%) + D(1.27b)/V(5.69b) * Rd(0.44%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.40% ; FCFE base≈282.0m ; Y1≈347.8m ; Y5≈593.5m
Fair Price DCF = 169.2 (DCF Value 7.59b / Shares Outstanding 44.9m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 77.70 | EPS CAGR: 21.15% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.56 | Revenue CAGR: 4.93% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.35 | Chg30d=-0.131 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.00 | Chg30d=-0.311 | Revisions Net=-9 | Growth EPS=-12.6% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%
Additional Sources for ITRI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle