JAKK Stock Analysis: JAKKS Pacific | NASDAQ
Leisure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 388m USD | 12M Return: 126.8% | US47012E4035 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.20M
EPS Trend: -77.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -80.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.8 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a U.S.-based designer, manufacturer, and distributor of toys, consumer products, costumes, and related goods, operating through two segments: Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The companys product portfolio spans action figures and accessories, toy vehicles, dolls, infant and preschool items, role play and dress-up toys, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, Halloween and everyday costumes, junior sports toys, board games, and seasonal/holiday merchandise. Distribution reaches mass-market retail chains, department stores, drug and grocery chains, club stores, dollar stores, toy specialty retailers, and wholesalers, with a brand portfolio that includes Fly Wheels, Disguise, Maui, Charming, KidTopia, Moose Mountain, and SportsZone, among others. The company is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and has been publicly traded since 1996.
Operating in the Leisure Products sub-industry within Consumer Discretionary, JAKKS competes in a sector that is heavily seasonal, with the vast majority of annual sales concentrated in the fourth-quarter holiday window. Toy manufacturers in this space typically rely on licensing agreements with major entertainment and character owners (such as Disney, Nintendo, and various film and media franchises) to drive demand for action figures, dolls, and costumes, which ties product performance to external media release cycles and increases exposure to licensing cost volatility.
- Disney and Marvel license revenue drives Toys segment performance
- Halloween Disguise costume sales growth boosts fourth quarter margins
- China tariffs and retail concentration pressure gross margins and revenue
| Net Income: 27.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.05% < 20% (prev 23.30%; Δ 0.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 39.1m > Net Income 27.2m |
| Net Debt (-2.02m) to EBITDA (45.5m): -0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.1m) vs 12m ago 5.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.50% > 18% (prev 31.54%; Δ 0.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 119.7% > 50% (prev 118.3%; Δ 1.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 147.5 > 6 (EBIT TTM 34.7m / Interest Expense TTM 235k) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 362.6m - Total Current Liabilities 216.6m) / Total Assets 528.8m |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -18.1m / Total Assets 528.8m) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 34.7m / Avg Total Assets 507.0m) |
| D: 1.10 (Book Value of Equity 277.3m / Total Liabilities 251.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.32 = A |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 240.3m/204.7m, Revenue 606.8m/574.3m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 31.54% / 32.50%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 606.8m / 574.3m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 27.2m - CFO 39.1m) / TA 528.8m) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.76 with a total of 172,047 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.05%, over one month by +32.52%, over three months by +45.92% and over the past year by +126.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.10 (which is 4.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
JAKKS Pacific has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy JAKK.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 48.5 | 31.9% |
P/E Trailing = 15.3607
P/E Forward = 10.7875
P/S = 0.6178
P/B = 1.3974
P/EG = 1.5911
Revenue TTM = 606.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 34.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 45.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 28.4m USD (estimated: total debt 43.1m - short term 14.7m)
Short Term Debt = 14.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 43.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 43.1m already included)
Net Debt = -2.02m USD (calculated: Debt 43.1m - CCE 45.1m)
Enterprise Value = 385.5m USD (387.5m + Debt 43.1m - CCE 45.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 147.5 (Ebit TTM 34.7m / Interest Expense TTM 235k)
EV/FCF = 19.02x (Enterprise Value 385.5m / FCF TTM 20.3m)
FCF Yield = 5.26% (FCF TTM 20.3m / Enterprise Value 385.5m)
FCF Margin = 3.34% (FCF TTM 20.3m / Revenue TTM 606.8m)
Net Margin = 4.48% (Net Income TTM 27.2m / Revenue TTM 606.8m)
Gross Margin = 32.50% ((Revenue TTM 606.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 409.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.06% (prev 32.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 385.5m / Total Assets 528.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.55% (Interest Expense 235k / Debt 43.1m)
Taxrate = 22.13% (7.73m / 34.9m)
NOPAT = 27.0m (EBIT 34.7m * (1 - 22.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 362.6m / Total Current Liabilities 216.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 43.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 277.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -2.02m / EBITDA 45.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.10 (Net Debt -2.02m / FCF TTM 20.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 252.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.36% (Net Income 27.2m / Total Assets 528.8m)
RoE = 10.78% (Net Income TTM 27.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 252.3m)
RoCE = 12.35% (EBIT 34.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 252.3m + L.T.Debt 28.4m))
RoIC = 9.10% (NOPAT 27.0m / Invested Capital 296.6m)
WACC = 9.40% (E(387.5m)/V(430.6m) * Re(10.40%) + D(43.1m)/V(430.6m) * Rd(0.55%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.92 | Cagr: 4.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.64% ; FCFF base≈19.2m ; Y1≈22.0m ; Y5≈32.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 35.88 (EV 411.3m - Net Debt -2.02m = Equity 413.3m / Shares 11.5m; r=9.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.99% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -77.21 | EPS CAGR: -37.09% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -80.03 | Revenue CAGR: -9.15% | SUE: 2.54 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.38 | Chg30d=+19.35% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+46.6% | GrowthRev=+9.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.77 | Chg30d=+15.62% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+59.0% | GrowthRev=+7.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=4, down=0)