KALU Stock Analysis: Kaiser Aluminum | NASDAQ
Aluminum | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.970m USD | 12M Return: 131% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.1M
EPS Trend: 88.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 60.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products, serving as a mid-stream producer that converts primary aluminum into value-added forms such as flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil, extruded and drawn shapes, and cast products. Its product portfolio is organized into four end-market groups: aerospace/HS (heat-treated plate, hard-alloy extrusions, cold-finish rods/bars, and seamless drawn tubes for aerospace, space, and defense applications), packaging (3000 and 5000-series alloy coils for beverage and food packaging), general engineering (6000-series plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, and wire for military armor, ordnance, semiconductor manufacturing cells, and machinery components), and automotive extrusions (structural components, crash management systems, and anti-lock braking components).
The company distributes its products through a direct sales model targeting aerospace and automotive OEMs, tier-one suppliers, packaging manufacturers, and metal service centers, with sales personnel based in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. The specialty aluminum mill products segment is characterized by long product qualification cycles, particularly in aerospace and defense, where materials must meet stringent certification standards, and by close collaboration with OEM customers on alloy development and component engineering.
Kaiser Aluminum was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee, and trades on NASDAQ under the ticker KALU within the GICS Materials sectors Aluminum sub-industry.
- Aerospace and defense demand recovery boosts aero/HS margins
- Aluminum beverage can sheet volumes track packaging industry trends
- Energy and conversion costs pressure specialty aluminum mill margins
| Net Income: 153.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.92% < 20% (prev 22.32%; Δ 1.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 142.3m > Net Income 153.4m |
| Net Debt (1.07b) to EBITDA (379.8m): 2.82 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.8m) vs 12m ago 2.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.24% > 18% (prev 11.85%; Δ -1.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 141.6% > 50% (prev 125.6%; Δ 16.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 256.9m / Interest Expense TTM 53.3m) |
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 1.49b - Total Current Liabilities 601.9m) / Total Assets 2.79b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 191.4m / Total Assets 2.79b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 256.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.61b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 877.3m / Total Liabilities 1.91b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.45 = A |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 604.5m/457.8m, Revenue 3.70b/3.06b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 11.85% / 10.24%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 3.70b / 3.06b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 153.4m - CFO 142.3m) / TA 2.79b) |
| Beneish M = -2.69 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 184.74 with a total of 246,252 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.64%, over one month by +0.73%, over three months by +41.67% and over the past year by +130.96%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 173.90 (which is 5.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Kaiser Aluminum has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold KALU.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 159.3 | -13.8% |
P/E Trailing = 19.7963
P/E Forward = 27.7008
P/S = 0.8021
P/B = 3.3849
P/EG = 1.168
Revenue TTM = 3.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 256.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 379.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.30m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 31.8m
Net Debt = 1.07b USD (calculated: Debt 1.10b - CCE 30.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.04b USD (2.97b + Debt 1.10b - CCE 30.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.82 (Ebit TTM 256.9m / Interest Expense TTM 53.3m)
EV/FCF = 167.0x (Enterprise Value 4.04b / FCF TTM 24.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.60% (FCF TTM 24.2m / Enterprise Value 4.04b)
FCF Margin = 0.65% (FCF TTM 24.2m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Net Margin = 4.14% (Net Income TTM 153.4m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Gross Margin = 10.24% ((Revenue TTM 3.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.03% (prev 9.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 4.04b / Total Assets 2.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.84% (Interest Expense 53.3m / Debt 1.10b)
Taxrate = 24.66% (50.2m / 203.6m)
NOPAT = 193.6m (EBIT 256.9m * (1 - 24.66%))
Current Ratio = 2.47 (Total Current Assets 1.49b / Total Current Liabilities 601.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.26 (Debt 1.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 877.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.82 (Net Debt 1.07b / EBITDA 379.8m)
Debt / FCF = 44.27 (Net Debt 1.07b / FCF TTM 24.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 821.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.87% (Net Income 153.4m / Total Assets 2.79b)
RoE = 18.68% (Net Income TTM 153.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 821.4m)
RoCE = 13.82% (EBIT 256.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 821.4m + L.T.Debt 1.04b))
RoIC = 8.93% (NOPAT 193.6m / Invested Capital 2.17b)
WACC = 9.38% (E(2.97b)/V(4.07b) * Re(11.51%) + D(1.10b)/V(4.07b) * Rd(4.84%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 11.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 2.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.90% ; FCFF base≈24.2m ; Y1≈24.3m ; Y5≈25.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 340.5m - Net Debt 1.07b = -730.9m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 88.43 | EPS CAGR: 57.46% | SUE: 3.38 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 60.23 | Revenue CAGR: 4.23% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.16 | Chg30d=+4.01% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.28 | Chg30d=+1.06% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+70.5% | GrowthRev=+32.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.86 | Chg30d=+4.53% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+5.7% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20%