(KDP) Keurig Dr Pepper - Ratings and Ratios
Coffee, Pods, Soda, Juice, Water
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.75% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.63 |
| Alpha | -19.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.432 |
| Beta | 0.185 |
| Beta Downside | 0.239 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.99% |
| Mean DD | 12.93% |
| Median DD | 11.85% |
Description: KDP Keurig Dr Pepper September 29, 2025
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is a U.S.–based beverage and single-serve coffee systems company that operates through three reporting segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. The firm manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of branded concentrates, syrups, finished drinks, and K-Cup® pods, serving both its own brands (e.g., Dr Pepper, Snapple, Green Mountain Coffee) and licensed partners such as Starbucks, Dunkin’ and McCafé. Sales channels span supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce platforms, food-service accounts, and direct-to-consumer via Keurig.com.
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY 2024 filing show net sales of $13.2 billion, a 5.1 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 9 % rise in the U.S. Coffee segment, while the International segment grew 3 % on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA margin held at 18.4 %, reflecting stable pricing power despite modest raw-material cost inflation. The company’s free cash flow generation was $1.5 billion, supporting a dividend yield of roughly 2.8 % and a share-repurchase program of $500 million.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect KDP’s outlook include: (1) the ongoing shift toward “better-for-you” beverages, which is boosting demand for low-sugar and functional drinks such as C4 Energy and Core Hydration; (2) the resilience of the single-serve coffee market, where U.S. coffee consumption per capita is projected to grow ~2 % annually through 2027, underpinning the growth of K-Cup sales; and (3) macro-economic pressure on discretionary spending, which can compress volume in the carbonated soft-drink category but is partially offset by price-elastic premium offerings.
Given the blend of brand depth, diversified distribution, and exposure to both traditional and emerging beverage trends, a deeper quantitative model of KDP’s cash-flow sensitivity to raw-material pricing and consumer-taste shifts would be valuable-consider exploring the detailed scenario analysis available on ValueRay for a more granular view.
KDP Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 37,252m |
| Sub-Industry | Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages |
| IPO / Inception | 1993-09-21 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -25.8% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.10 of 5 |
KDP Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.40% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.38% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.89% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.3% |
KDP Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -8.89% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.29 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.69 |
| Current Volume | 19179.5k |
| Average Volume | 19179.5k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (1.58b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 970.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.93pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -17.47% (prev -23.75%; Δ 6.27pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.13b > Net Income 1.58b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (17.01b) to EBITDA (3.58b) ratio: 4.76 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.62 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.36b) change vs 12m ago 0.07% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 54.76% (prev 55.69%; Δ -0.93pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 30.14% (prev 28.73%; Δ 1.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.29 (EBITDA TTM 3.58b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.55
| (A) -0.05 = (Total Current Assets 4.70b - Total Current Liabilities 7.53b) / Total Assets 54.60b |
| (B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.58b / Total Assets 54.60b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 2.84b / Avg Total Assets 53.66b |
| (D) 0.19 = Book Value of Equity 5.57b / Total Liabilities 29.28b |
| Total Rating: 0.55 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.70
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.97% |
| 3. FCF Margin 9.97% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.69 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.76 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.62)% |
| 7. RoE 6.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 62.00% |
| 9. EPS Trend 39.89% |
What is the price of KDP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.35%, over one month by -7.46%, over three months by -12.24% and over the past year by -15.15%.
Is KDP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KDP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.4 | 31% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.4 | 31% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.8 | 2.7% |
KDP Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 23.2373
P/E Forward = 12.3305
P/S = 2.3032
P/B = 1.4464
P/EG = 0.6626
Beta = 0.362
Revenue TTM = 16.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.84b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.58b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.53b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.60b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.01b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 54.32b USD (37.25b + Debt 17.58b - CCE 516.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.29 (Ebit TTM 2.84b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.97% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Enterprise Value 54.32b)
FCF Margin = 9.97% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Net Margin = 9.78% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Gross Margin = 54.76% ((Revenue TTM 16.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.34% (prev 54.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 54.32b / Total Assets 54.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.07% (Interest Expense 188.0m / Debt 17.58b)
Taxrate = 22.30% (190.0m / 852.0m)
NOPAT = 2.21b (EBIT 2.84b * (1 - 22.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 4.70b / Total Current Liabilities 7.53b)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 17.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.76 (Net Debt 17.01b / EBITDA 3.58b)
Debt / FCF = 10.55 (Net Debt 17.01b / FCF TTM 1.61b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.90% (Net Income 1.58b / Total Assets 54.60b)
RoE = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.75b)
RoCE = 7.42% (EBIT 2.84b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.75b + L.T.Debt 13.53b))
RoIC = 5.44% (NOPAT 2.21b / Invested Capital 40.55b)
WACC = 4.82% (E(37.25b)/V(54.83b) * Re(6.70%) + D(17.58b)/V(54.83b) * Rd(1.07%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.70% ; FCFE base≈1.39b ; Y1≈1.12b ; Y5≈772.6m
Fair Price DCF = 10.54 (DCF Value 14.32b / Shares Outstanding 1.36b; 5y FCF grow -23.32% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 39.89 | EPS CAGR: 2.84% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.00 | Revenue CAGR: 4.62% | SUE: 3.40 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for KDP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle