(KDP) Keurig Dr Pepper - Ratings and Ratios
Beverages, Coffee, Pods, Concentrates, Brewers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.84% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.25% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.01% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 32.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.85% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.41 |
| Alpha | -16.38 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.505 |
| Beta | 0.165 |
| Beta Downside | 0.154 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.99% |
| Mean DD | 10.71% |
| Median DD | 9.94% |
Description: KDP Keurig Dr Pepper December 03, 2025
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP) manufactures, markets, and distributes a broad portfolio of beverages and single-serve brewing systems across the United States and select international markets.
The business is organized into three reporting segments-U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International-covering everything from carbonated soft drinks (Dr Pepper, 7UP, Sunkist) to ready-to-drink coffee and tea (Green Mountain, Starbucks, Dunkin’), as well as K-Cup pods and specialty coffee products.
Its distribution network reaches supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, pure-play e-commerce platforms, restaurant and hotel chains, as well as direct-to-consumer sales through Keurig.com, allowing the company to capture demand across both traditional and digital channels.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 net sales were approximately $13.2 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.65; the U.S. Coffee segment grew 9% YoY, driven by strong demand for ready-to-drink coffee and premium pod sales, while the Refreshment Beverages segment faced modest volume pressure from shifting consumer preferences toward lower-sugar drinks. Primary economic drivers include inflation-sensitive input costs, evolving health trends that favor non-carbonated and functional beverages, and the continued expansion of e-commerce as a sales channel.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 1.58b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -17.47% < 20% (prev -23.75%; Δ 6.27% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 2.13b > Net Income 1.58b |
| Net Debt (17.03b) to EBITDA (3.58b): 4.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.36b) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 54.76% > 18% (prev 0.56%; Δ 5420 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 30.14% > 50% (prev 28.73%; Δ 1.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.29 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.58b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.55
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 4.70b - Total Current Liabilities 7.53b) / Total Assets 54.60b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 5.58b / Total Assets 54.60b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 2.84b / Avg Total Assets 53.66b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 5.57b / Total Liabilities 29.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.55 = B |
Beneish M -2.98
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 1.72b/1.62b, Revenue 16.17b/15.15b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 54.76% / 55.69%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.85) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 16.17b / 15.15b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.58b - CFO 2.13b) / TA 54.60b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.98 = A |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.41
| 1. Piotroski: 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 2.93% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 9.97% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.69 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 4.76 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 0.72% |
| 7. RoE: 6.39% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 76.43% |
| 9. EPS Trend: -9.55% |
What is the price of KDP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.25%, over one month by -1.64%, over three months by +1.42% and over the past year by -9.79%.
Is KDP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KDP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.4 | 25% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.4 | 25% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28 | 1.8% |
KDP Fundamental Data Overview January 22, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.7714
P/S = 2.3477
P/B = 1.4995
P/EG = 0.6869
Revenue TTM = 16.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.84b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.58b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.53b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.57b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.03b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 55.01b USD (37.97b + Debt 17.55b - CCE 516.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.29 (Ebit TTM 2.84b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m)
EV/FCF = 34.10x (Enterprise Value 55.01b / FCF TTM 1.61b)
FCF Yield = 2.93% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Enterprise Value 55.01b)
FCF Margin = 9.97% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Net Margin = 9.78% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Gross Margin = 54.76% ((Revenue TTM 16.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.34% (prev 54.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 55.01b / Total Assets 54.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.07% (Interest Expense 188.0m / Debt 17.55b)
Taxrate = 22.30% (190.0m / 852.0m)
NOPAT = 2.21b (EBIT 2.84b * (1 - 22.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 4.70b / Total Current Liabilities 7.53b)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 17.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.76 (Net Debt 17.03b / EBITDA 3.58b)
Debt / FCF = 10.56 (Net Debt 17.03b / FCF TTM 1.61b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.95% (Net Income 1.58b / Total Assets 54.60b)
RoE = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.75b)
RoCE = 7.42% (EBIT 2.84b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.75b + L.T.Debt 13.53b))
RoIC = 5.44% (NOPAT 2.21b / Invested Capital 40.55b)
WACC = 4.72% (E(37.97b)/V(55.52b) * Re(6.52%) + D(17.55b)/V(55.52b) * Rd(1.07%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.86% ; FCFF base≈1.39b ; Y1≈1.12b ; Y5≈770.7m
Fair Price DCF = 4.88 (EV 23.67b - Net Debt 17.03b = Equity 6.63b / Shares 1.36b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -23.32% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -9.55 | EPS CAGR: -43.04% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.43 | Revenue CAGR: 6.58% | SUE: 3.40 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=10
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+6.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.8%
Additional Sources for KDP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle