(KRYS) Krystal Biotech - Ratings and Ratios
Gene Therapy, Rare Skin Diseases, Dermatology, Clinical Trials
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 71.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.63% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.79 |
| Alpha | 77.26 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.410 |
| Beta | 0.796 |
| Beta Downside | 0.628 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.26% |
| Mean DD | 13.18% |
| Median DD | 11.25% |
Description: KRYS Krystal Biotech January 10, 2026
Krystal Biotech (NASDAQ:KRYS) is a commercial-stage biotech focused on gene-based medicines for rare, high-unmet-need disorders in the U.S. Its only marketed product, VYJUVEK (beremagene geperpavec-svdt, B-VEC), received FDA approval in late 2023 for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (DEB), marking the first gene-therapy for this skin-fragility disease.
Beyond B-VEC, the pipeline spans seven pre-clinical/clinical programs: KB105 (Phase 1/2 for autosomal-recessive congenital ichthyosis), KB104 (netherton syndrome), KB407 (Phase 1 for cystic fibrosis), KB707 (Phase 1/2 for anti-PD-1-relapsed/refractory cancers), KB408 (Phase 1 for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency), KB301 (Phase 2 for aesthetic skin conditions), and an open-label ophthalmic B-VEC study for DEB-related eye complications.
Key financial metrics (FY 2023): market capitalization ≈ $300 M, cash and equivalents ≈ $120 M, giving a runway of roughly 12-18 months at current burn (~$70 M R&D spend). The company’s revenue is still nascent-primarily from B-VEC sales-so earnings are negative, but the high-margin nature of gene-therapy pricing (average $500 k-$1 M per patient) offers upside if adoption scales.
Sector-level drivers reinforce Krystal’s outlook: the global gene-therapy market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~15 % through 2030, fueled by FDA’s accelerated-approval pathways and expanding payer coverage for orphan drugs. However, execution risk remains high-clinical setbacks, manufacturing scale-up, or reimbursement delays could materially affect valuation.
For a deeper quantitative view of KRYS’s risk-adjusted upside, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst dashboard for the latest metrics and scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (198.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 22.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 223.6% (prev 258.2%; Δ -34.62pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 176.2m <= Net Income 198.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-383.1m) to EBITDA (171.2m) ratio: -2.24 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 10.14 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (29.8m) change vs 12m ago -0.23% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 93.89% (prev 91.93%; Δ 1.96pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 33.58% (prev 24.59%; Δ 9.00pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -7.45 (EBITDA TTM 171.2m / Interest Expense TTM -22.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.07
| (A) 0.67 = (Total Current Assets 925.6m - Total Current Liabilities 91.3m) / Total Assets 1.24b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -27.2m / Total Assets 1.24b |
| (C) 0.15 = EBIT TTM 164.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b |
| (D) -0.26 = Book Value of Equity -26.1m / Total Liabilities 102.2m |
| Total Rating: 5.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 83.69
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.55% |
| 3. FCF Margin 44.37% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.24 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.16)% |
| 7. RoE 19.36% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 91.54% |
| 9. EPS Trend 84.62% |
What is the price of KRYS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +18.44%, over one month by +20.09%, over three months by +55.17% and over the past year by +104.56%.
Is KRYS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KRYS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 250.2 | -14.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 250.2 | -14.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 419.2 | 43.7% |
KRYS Fundamental Data Overview January 10, 2026
P/E Forward = 33.557
P/S = 19.3421
P/B = 6.3432
Revenue TTM = 373.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 164.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 171.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.51m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -383.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.50b USD (7.22b + Debt 9.51m - CCE 731.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.45 (Ebit TTM 164.8m / Interest Expense TTM -22.1m)
EV/FCF = 39.23x (Enterprise Value 6.50b / FCF TTM 165.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.55% (FCF TTM 165.6m / Enterprise Value 6.50b)
FCF Margin = 44.37% (FCF TTM 165.6m / Revenue TTM 373.2m)
Net Margin = 53.30% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Revenue TTM 373.2m)
Gross Margin = 93.89% ((Revenue TTM 373.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 22.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 94.21% (prev 92.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.24 (Enterprise Value 6.50b / Total Assets 1.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 262.9% (Interest Expense 25.0m / Debt 9.51m)
Taxrate = 6.50% (6.20m / 95.4m)
NOPAT = 154.1m (EBIT 164.8m * (1 - 6.50%))
Current Ratio = 10.14 (Total Current Assets 925.6m / Total Current Liabilities 91.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 9.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.24 (Net Debt -383.1m / EBITDA 171.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.31 (Net Debt -383.1m / FCF TTM 165.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.90% (Net Income 198.9m / Total Assets 1.24b)
RoE = 19.36% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 15.90% (EBIT 164.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 9.51m))
RoIC = 15.00% (NOPAT 154.1m / Invested Capital 1.03b)
WACC = 8.84% (E(7.22b)/V(7.23b) * Re(8.85%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.75%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.51% ; FCFF base≈122.6m ; Y1≈80.5m ; Y5≈36.7m
Fair Price DCF = 34.81 (EV 626.3m - Net Debt -383.1m = Equity 1.01b / Shares 29.0m; r=8.84% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 84.62 | EPS CAGR: 22.19% | SUE: -2.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.54 | Revenue CAGR: 166.7% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.50 | Chg30d=-0.022 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.44 | Chg30d=+0.138 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+23.1% | Growth Revenue=+45.2%
Additional Sources for KRYS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle