KSPI Stock Analysis: Joint Stock Kaspi.kz | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 16.787m USD | 12M Return: 11% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 37.1M
EPS Trend: 67.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) operates a super app combining payments, marketplace, and fintech services for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company runs three segments: Payments, which facilitates consumer-to-merchant and peer-to-peer transactions and supports merchant operations such as invoicing and turnover monitoring; Marketplace, which connects online and offline merchants with consumers through m-commerce, e-Commerce, and Kaspi Travel; and Fintech, which offers buy-now-pay-later, consumer finance, savings, and merchant finance products. The business also extends into banking, distressed asset management, real estate, e-grocery, classifieds, and data storage and processing. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Almaty, Kaspi.kz listed on NASDAQ in January 2024 and is classified in the Financials sector under Consumer Finance.
Kaspi.kz is one of the most prominent examples of a super app business model, integrating commerce and financial services within a single platform. Its home market of Kazakhstan is a largely underbanked economy relative to Western Europe, which has supported the rapid adoption of digital payments and consumer finance products offered through the app.
- Kazakhstan base rate hikes boost Fintech net interest margins
- Marketplace GMV accelerates on e-commerce and travel expansion
- Payments transaction volume growth outpaces Kazakhstan retail spending
| Net Income: 1042b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 48.05% < 20% (prev 60.31%; Δ -12.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 885b > Net Income 1042b |
| Net Debt (-1549b) to EBITDA (1827b): -0.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.0m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.79% > 18% (prev 64.92%; Δ 5.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.33% > 50% (prev 30.04%; Δ 11.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1827b / Interest Expense TTM 884b) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 9731b - Total Current Liabilities 7706b) / Total Assets 11098b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 2771b / Total Assets 11098b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 1827b / Avg Total Assets 10196b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 2684b / Total Liabilities 8323b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.55 = A |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 7325b/6093b, Revenue 4214b/2792b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 64.92% / 70.79%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 4214b / 2792b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1042b - CFO 885b) / TA 11098b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 89.82 with a total of 303,100 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.42%, over one month by +7.36%, over three months by +24.19% and over the past year by +11.00%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 86.20 (which is 4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Joint Stock Kaspi.kz has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KSPI.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 98.3 | 9.4% |
Market Cap KZT = 7715b (16.8b USD * 459.5959 USD.KZT)
P/E Trailing = 7.9229
P/S = 1.9793
P/B = 3.1301
Revenue TTM = 4214b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1827b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1827b KZT
Long Term Debt = 335b KZT (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 76.8b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 433b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.6b
Net Debt = -1549b KZT (calculated: Debt 433b - CCE 1982b)
Enterprise Value = 6166b KZT (7715b + Debt 433b - CCE 1982b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.07 (Ebit TTM 1827b / Interest Expense TTM 884b)
EV/FCF = 8.86x (Enterprise Value 6166b / FCF TTM 696b)
FCF Yield = 11.29% (FCF TTM 696b / Enterprise Value 6166b)
FCF Margin = 16.52% (FCF TTM 696b / Revenue TTM 4214b)
Net Margin = 24.73% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Revenue TTM 4214b)
Gross Margin = 70.79% ((Revenue TTM 4214b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1231b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.50% (prev 73.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.56 (Enterprise Value 6166b / Total Assets 11098b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 204.0% (Interest Expense 884b / Debt 433b)
Taxrate = 20.86% (275b / 1319b)
NOPAT = 1446b (EBIT 1827b * (1 - 20.86%))
Current Ratio = 1.26 (Total Current Assets 9731b / Total Current Liabilities 7706b)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 433b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2684b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.85 (Net Debt -1549b / EBITDA 1827b)
Debt / FCF = -2.23 (Net Debt -1549b / FCF TTM 696b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2351b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.22% (Net Income 1042b / Total Assets 11098b)
RoE = 44.34% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Total Stockholder Equity 2351b)
RoCE = 68.02% (EBIT 1827b / Capital Employed (Equity 2351b + L.T.Debt 335b))
RoIC = 44.37% (NOPAT 1446b / Invested Capital 3258b)
WACC = 8.69% (E(7715b)/V(8148b) * Re(9.18%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 6.67 | Cagr: 0.16%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.87% ; FCFF base≈627b ; Y1≈718b ; Y5≈1057b
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.1k (EV 15011b - Net Debt -1549b = Equity 16560b / Shares 190.0m; r=8.69% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.76 | EPS CAGR: 22.39% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.51 | Revenue CAGR: 43.55% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1295.25 | Chg30d=-1.64% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1420.40 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5756.59 | Chg30d=-5.25% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+2.9% | GrowthRev=+24.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6685.35 | Chg30d=-6.48% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)