(KSPI) Joint Stock Kaspi.kz - Overview
Stock: Payments, Marketplace, Fintech, BNPL, Travel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 59.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -35.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.68 |
| Alpha | -39.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.945 |
| Beta Downside | 1.165 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 69.44% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.02 |
Description: KSPI Joint Stock Kaspi.kz January 02, 2026
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) operates a vertically integrated digital ecosystem in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine, delivering payments, marketplace, and fintech services through three distinct segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech.
The Payments segment runs a proprietary platform that enables consumer-to-merchant and peer-to-peer transactions, supports bill payments, online and in-store checkout, invoicing, supplier settlements, and supplies merchant turnover analytics based on its own transaction data.
The Marketplace segment links online and offline merchants with shoppers via mobile commerce (m-commerce), full-service e-commerce (including free-delivery logistics), and Kaspi Travel, which aggregates flight, rail, and holiday bookings. It also boosts merchant sales through integrated advertising, delivery, and cross-selling of payments and fintech products.
The Fintech segment offers consumer credit tools such as buy-now-pay-later, savings accounts, and merchant financing, while the broader group holds interests in banking, distressed-asset management, real estate, e-grocery, classifieds, and data-processing services.
Recent data (2023) show Kaspi.kz generated ≈ $1.1 billion in revenue, a net profit margin of ~12%, and a user base exceeding 13 million active accounts, representing roughly 70 % of Kazakhstan’s adult population-a key driver given the country’s 15 % annual growth in digital payment adoption and stable macro-economic conditions (GDP growth ~4 % YoY).
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Kaspi’s valuation and competitive positioning, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 1099.33b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 194.9% < 20% (prev 205.1%; Δ -10.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 499.90b > Net Income 1099.33b |
| Net Debt (-63.47b) to EBITDA (1597.20b): -0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.8m) vs 12m ago -0.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 64.27% > 18% (prev 0.68%; Δ 6360 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.36% > 50% (prev 30.83%; Δ 9.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.20 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1597.20b / Interest Expense TTM 218.29b) |
Altman Z'' 6.69
| A: 0.68 (Total Current Assets 7793.85b - Total Current Liabilities 726.19b) / Total Assets 10348.74b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2270.14b / Total Assets 10348.74b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 1571.91b / Avg Total Assets 8984.68b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 2419.54b / Total Liabilities 8005.97b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.69 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.66
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 6801.55b/5244.72b, Revenue 3626.00b/2349.28b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 64.27% / 67.95%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.54 (Revenue 3626.00b / 2349.28b) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 1099.33b - CFO 499.90b) / TA 10348.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.66 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of KSPI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.12%, over one month by -11.42%, over three months by +2.80% and over the past year by -24.70%.
Is KSPI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KSPI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 109.3 | 48.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 109.3 | 48.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 70.9 | -3.9% |
KSPI Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 6.6874
P/S = 2.0445
P/B = 3.2349
Revenue TTM = 3626.00b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1571.91b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1597.20b KZT
Long Term Debt = 438.05b KZT (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 356.01b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 438.05b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -63.47b KZT (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7585.18b KZT (7648.65b + Debt 438.05b - CCE 501.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.20 (Ebit TTM 1571.91b / Interest Expense TTM 218.29b)
EV/FCF = 21.17x (Enterprise Value 7585.18b / FCF TTM 358.38b)
FCF Yield = 4.72% (FCF TTM 358.38b / Enterprise Value 7585.18b)
FCF Margin = 9.88% (FCF TTM 358.38b / Revenue TTM 3626.00b)
Net Margin = 30.32% (Net Income TTM 1099.33b / Revenue TTM 3626.00b)
Gross Margin = 64.27% ((Revenue TTM 3626.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1295.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.29% (prev 70.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 7585.18b / Total Assets 10348.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 49.83% (Interest Expense 218.29b / Debt 438.05b)
Taxrate = 19.76% (68.47b / 346.51b)
NOPAT = 1261.31b (EBIT 1571.91b * (1 - 19.76%))
Current Ratio = 10.73 (Total Current Assets 7793.85b / Total Current Liabilities 726.19b)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 438.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2271.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -63.47b / EBITDA 1597.20b)
Debt / FCF = -0.18 (Net Debt -63.47b / FCF TTM 358.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1863.26b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.24% (Net Income 1099.33b / Total Assets 10348.74b)
RoE = 59.00% (Net Income TTM 1099.33b / Total Stockholder Equity 1863.26b)
RoCE = 68.30% (EBIT 1571.91b / Capital Employed (Equity 1863.26b + L.T.Debt 438.05b))
RoIC = 54.17% (NOPAT 1261.31b / Invested Capital 2328.50b)
WACC = 11.06% (E(7648.65b)/V(8086.70b) * Re(9.40%) + D(438.05b)/V(8086.70b) * Rd(49.83%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 9.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.77% ; FCFF base≈232.15b ; Y1≈163.75b ; Y5≈86.26b
Fair Price DCF = 5981 (EV 1077.70b - Net Debt -63.47b = Equity 1141.17b / Shares 190.8m; r=11.06% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -34.60% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 3.64 | EPS CAGR: 14.21% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.52 | Revenue CAGR: 49.08% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1482.58 | Chg30d=-45.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6645.30 | Chg30d=-38.750 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+15.6% | Growth Revenue=+17.6%