KSPI Stock Analysis: Joint Stock Kaspi.kz | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 16.996m USD | 12M Return: 26% | US48581R2058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 41.5M
EPS Trend: 38.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) is a Kazakhstan-based financial technology company that provides integrated payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions to consumers and merchants across Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three core segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech, with its super-app ecosystem combining financial services and digital commerce.
The Payments segment functions as a platform facilitating transactions between merchants and consumers, supporting in-store and online payments, peer-to-peer transfers, bill payments, invoice management, and merchant turnover monitoring. The Marketplace segment connects online and offline merchants with consumers through m-commerce, e-commerce, and Kaspi Travel, which offers flight, rail, and holiday bookings. Both segments are enhanced by integrated advertising and delivery services, reflecting the broader trend of super-app models that consolidate commerce and financial services within a single platform.
The Fintech segment provides buy-now-pay-later, finance, savings, and merchant finance products, alongside involvement in banking, distressed asset management, real estate, payment processing, online travel, e-grocery, classifieds, and data storage services. Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
- Kazakhstan consumer credit regulation tightening weighs on Fintech growth
- Marketplace GMV accelerates on rising e-commerce penetration
- Tenge depreciation pressures USD-linked operating costs
| Net Income: 1045b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.16% < 20% (prev 46.44%; Δ -31.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 674b > Net Income 1045b |
| Net Debt (-486b) to EBITDA (1603b): -0.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.0m) vs 12m ago -0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 65.12% > 18% (prev 64.27%; Δ 0.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.13% > 50% (prev 35.04%; Δ 3.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.81 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1603b / Interest Expense TTM 884b) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 9424b - Total Current Liabilities 8767b) / Total Assets 12392b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2781b / Total Assets 12392b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 1603b / Avg Total Assets 11370b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 2670b / Total Liabilities 9636b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.32 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 7717b/6849b, Revenue 4335b/3626b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 64.27% / 65.12%) |
| AQI: 2.18 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 4335b / 3626b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 1045b - CFO 674b) / TA 12392b) |
| Beneish M = -2.24 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 88.64 with a total of 377,371 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.21%, over one month by -8.78%, over three months by -9.00% and over the past year by +26.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 82.70 (which is 6.7% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Joint Stock Kaspi.kz has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.14. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KSPI.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 105.6 | 19.2% |
Market Cap KZT = 7539b (17.0b USD * 443.57000732422 USD.KZT)
P/E Trailing = 7.9011
P/S = 1.7646
P/B = 2.9079
Revenue TTM = 4335b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1603b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1603b KZT
Long Term Debt = 572b KZT (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 101b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 593b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.6b
Net Debt = -486b KZT (calculated: Debt 593b - CCE 1080b)
Enterprise Value = 7053b KZT (7539b + Debt 593b - CCE 1080b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.81 (Ebit TTM 1603b / Interest Expense TTM 884b)
EV/FCF = 14.36x (Enterprise Value 7053b / FCF TTM 491b)
FCF Yield = 6.96% (FCF TTM 491b / Enterprise Value 7053b)
FCF Margin = 11.33% (FCF TTM 491b / Revenue TTM 4335b)
Net Margin = 24.11% (Net Income TTM 1045b / Revenue TTM 4335b)
Gross Margin = 65.12% ((Revenue TTM 4335b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1512b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.97% (prev 69.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 7053b / Total Assets 12392b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 149.0% (Interest Expense 884b / Debt 593b)
Taxrate = 21.80% (291b / 1336b)
NOPAT = 1253b (EBIT 1603b * (1 - 21.80%))
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 9424b / Total Current Liabilities 8767b)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 593b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2670b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.30 (Net Debt -486b / EBITDA 1603b)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -486b / FCF TTM 491b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2621b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.19% (Net Income 1045b / Total Assets 12392b)
RoE = 39.87% (Net Income TTM 1045b / Total Stockholder Equity 2621b)
RoCE = 50.20% (EBIT 1603b / Capital Employed (Equity 2621b + L.T.Debt 572b))
RoIC = 35.73% (NOPAT 1253b / Invested Capital 3509b)
WACC = 8.15% (E(7539b)/V(8132b) * Re(8.79%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -76.99 | Cagr: -0.33%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈438b ; Y1≈502b ; Y5≈739b
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.1k (EV 11120b - Net Debt -486b = Equity 11607b / Shares 190.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 38.33 | EPS CAGR: 13.92% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.78 | Revenue CAGR: 40.76% | SUE: -1.11 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=1451.00 | Chg30d=-6.09% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5680.86 | Chg30d=-2.81% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.6% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6524.12 | Chg30d=-1.60% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+14.8% | GrowthRev=+18.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)