KSPI Stock Analysis: Joint Stock Kaspi.kz | NASDAQ

Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.640m USD | 12M Return: 12.8% | US48581R2058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Payments, Marketplace, Fintech, Banking
Total Rating 46
Safety 28
Buy Signal 0.56
Software - Infrastructure
Industry Rotation: +1.7
Market Cap: 18.6B
Avg Turnover: 44.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility43.3%
VaR 5th Pctl6.30%
VaR vs Median-8.87%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.40
Rel. Str. IBD76.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group72.2
Character TTM
Beta0.860
Beta Downside1.252
Hurst Exponent0.474
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD48.88%
CAGR/Max DD0.59
CAGR/Mean DD1.22
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of KSPI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 640, "2021-09": 813, "2021-12": 886, "2022-03": 622, "2022-06": 833, "2022-09": 980, "2022-12": 1120, "2023-03": 903, "2023-06": 1005, "2023-09": 852, "2023-12": 2.7138, "2024-03": 1151, "2024-06": 1246, "2024-09": 1409, "2024-12": 1625, "2025-03": 1321, "2025-06": 1367, "2025-09": 1458, "2025-12": 1470, "2026-03": 1335.65, "2026-06": 2.83,
EPS CAGR: 24.97%
EPS Trend: 72.1%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of KSPI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: null, 2021-09: null, 2021-12: 885478, 2022-03: null, 2022-06: null, 2022-09: 335057, 2022-12: 418191, 2023-03: 395004, 2023-06: 432116, 2023-09: 502185, 2023-12: 552814, 2024-03: 551023, 2024-06: 592853, 2024-09: 652592, 2024-12: 724459, 2025-03: 821851, 2025-06: 969512, 2025-09: 1110174, 2025-12: 1109226.995, 2026-03: 1025368.604, 2026-06: 1104693.668,
Rev. CAGR: 42.90%
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Last SUE: -0.45
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Seasonal Tailwind

Seasonality 5.6 years of data

Jan -1.0% 10
Feb +0.8% 9
Mar -11.9% 14
Apr +8.4% 11
May -1.1% 10
Jun +0.0% 9
Jul -2.4% 31
Aug +17.8% 58
Sep -6.5% 21
Oct -0.8% 0
Nov +1.9% 21
Dec -6.4% 12

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: KSPI Joint Stock Kaspi.kz

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) operates a super app combining payments, marketplace, and fintech services for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company runs three segments: Payments, which facilitates consumer-to-merchant and peer-to-peer transactions and supports merchant operations such as invoicing and turnover monitoring; Marketplace, which connects online and offline merchants with consumers through m-commerce, e-Commerce, and Kaspi Travel; and Fintech, which offers buy-now-pay-later, consumer finance, savings, and merchant finance products. The business also extends into banking, distressed asset management, real estate, e-grocery, classifieds, and data storage and processing. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Almaty, Kaspi.kz listed on NASDAQ in January 2024 and is classified in the Financials sector under Consumer Finance.

Kaspi.kz is one of the most prominent examples of a super app business model, integrating commerce and financial services within a single platform. Its home market of Kazakhstan is a largely underbanked economy relative to Western Europe, which has supported the rapid adoption of digital payments and consumer finance products offered through the app.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Kazakhstan base rate hikes boost Fintech net interest margins
  • Marketplace GMV accelerates on e-commerce and travel expansion
  • Payments transaction volume growth outpaces Kazakhstan retail spending
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 1042b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.83 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -173.1% < 20% (prev 59.02%; Δ -232.1% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 884b > Net Income 1042b
Net Debt (163b) to EBITDA (1610b): 0.10 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.0m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2%
Gross Margin: 70.50% > 18% (prev 62.54%; Δ 7.95% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 39.58% > 50% (prev 31.53%; Δ 8.05% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 884b)
Altman Z'' -2.13
A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 465b - Total Current Liabilities 7994b) / Total Assets 11928b
B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2673b / Total Assets 11928b)
C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Avg Total Assets 10988b)
D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 2611b / Total Liabilities 9154b)
Altman-Z'' = -2.13 = D
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 118b/6437b, Revenue 4349b/3168b)
GMI: 0.89 (GM 62.54% / 70.50%)
AQI: 11.57 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.08)
SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 4349b / 3168b)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 1042b - CFO 884b) / TA 11928b)
Beneish M = 2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of KSPI shares?

As of August 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 101.48 with a total of 763,741 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.94%, over one month by +15.12%, over three months by +15.82% and over the past year by +12.84%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 98.10 (which is 3.3% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).

Is KSPI a buy, sell or hold?

Joint Stock Kaspi.kz has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KSPI.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the KSPI price?
Analysts Target Price 102.3 0.8%
Joint Stock Kaspi.kz (KSPI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 18.6b (18.6b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap KZT = 8611b (18.6b USD * 461.98 USD.KZT)
P/E Trailing = 8.4053
P/S = 2.0625
P/B = 3.4121
Revenue TTM = 4349b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1610b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1610b KZT
Long Term Debt = 348b KZT (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 101b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 627b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.6b
Net Debt = 163b KZT (calculated: Debt 627b - CCE 465b)
Enterprise Value = 8774b KZT (8611b + Debt 627b - CCE 465b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.82 (Ebit TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 884b)
EV/FCF = 12.69x (Enterprise Value 8774b / FCF TTM 691b)
FCF Yield = 7.88% (FCF TTM 691b / Enterprise Value 8774b)
FCF Margin = 15.90% (FCF TTM 691b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Net Margin = 23.96% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Gross Margin = 70.50% ((Revenue TTM 4349b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1283b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.28% (prev 70.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 8774b / Total Assets 11928b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 140.9% (Interest Expense 884b / Debt 627b)
 Taxrate = 21.20% (280b / 1323b)
NOPAT = 1269b (EBIT 1610b * (1 - 21.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 465b / Total Current Liabilities 7994b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 627b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2611b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.10 (Net Debt 163b / EBITDA 1610b)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (Net Debt 163b / FCF TTM 691b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2515b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.48% (Net Income 1042b / Total Assets 11928b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Total Stockholder Equity 2515b)
RoCE = 56.24% (EBIT 1610b / Capital Employed (Equity 2515b + L.T.Debt 348b))
RoIC = 33.24% (NOPAT 1269b / Invested Capital 3817b)
WACC = 8.40% (E(8611b)/V(9239b) * Re(9.01%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.62 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.78% ; FCFF base≈681b ; Y1≈706b ; Y5≈797b
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.4k (EV 12215b - Net Debt 163b = Equity 12052b / Shares 190.0m; r=8.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.90% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 72.06 | EPS CAGR: 24.97% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.42 | Revenue CAGR: 42.90% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1420.40 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6189.51 | Chg30d=+7.52% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+18.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6702.58 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+17.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=4, down=1)