KSPI Stock Analysis: Joint Stock Kaspi.kz | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.640m USD | 12M Return: 12.8% | US48581R2058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 44.3M
EPS Trend: 72.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) operates a super app combining payments, marketplace, and fintech services for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company runs three segments: Payments, which facilitates consumer-to-merchant and peer-to-peer transactions and supports merchant operations such as invoicing and turnover monitoring; Marketplace, which connects online and offline merchants with consumers through m-commerce, e-Commerce, and Kaspi Travel; and Fintech, which offers buy-now-pay-later, consumer finance, savings, and merchant finance products. The business also extends into banking, distressed asset management, real estate, e-grocery, classifieds, and data storage and processing. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Almaty, Kaspi.kz listed on NASDAQ in January 2024 and is classified in the Financials sector under Consumer Finance.
Kaspi.kz is one of the most prominent examples of a super app business model, integrating commerce and financial services within a single platform. Its home market of Kazakhstan is a largely underbanked economy relative to Western Europe, which has supported the rapid adoption of digital payments and consumer finance products offered through the app.
- Kazakhstan base rate hikes boost Fintech net interest margins
- Marketplace GMV accelerates on e-commerce and travel expansion
- Payments transaction volume growth outpaces Kazakhstan retail spending
| Net Income: 1042b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -173.1% < 20% (prev 59.02%; Δ -232.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 884b > Net Income 1042b |
| Net Debt (163b) to EBITDA (1610b): 0.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.0m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.50% > 18% (prev 62.54%; Δ 7.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.58% > 50% (prev 31.53%; Δ 8.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 884b) |
| A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 465b - Total Current Liabilities 7994b) / Total Assets 11928b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2673b / Total Assets 11928b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Avg Total Assets 10988b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 2611b / Total Liabilities 9154b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.13 = D |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 118b/6437b, Revenue 4349b/3168b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 62.54% / 70.50%) |
| AQI: 11.57 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 4349b / 3168b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1042b - CFO 884b) / TA 11928b) |
| Beneish M = 2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 101.48 with a total of 763,741 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.94%, over one month by +15.12%, over three months by +15.82% and over the past year by +12.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 98.10 (which is 3.3% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
Joint Stock Kaspi.kz has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KSPI.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 102.3 | 0.8% |
Market Cap KZT = 8611b (18.6b USD * 461.98 USD.KZT)
P/E Trailing = 8.4053
P/S = 2.0625
P/B = 3.4121
Revenue TTM = 4349b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1610b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1610b KZT
Long Term Debt = 348b KZT (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 101b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 627b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.6b
Net Debt = 163b KZT (calculated: Debt 627b - CCE 465b)
Enterprise Value = 8774b KZT (8611b + Debt 627b - CCE 465b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.82 (Ebit TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 884b)
EV/FCF = 12.69x (Enterprise Value 8774b / FCF TTM 691b)
FCF Yield = 7.88% (FCF TTM 691b / Enterprise Value 8774b)
FCF Margin = 15.90% (FCF TTM 691b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Net Margin = 23.96% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Gross Margin = 70.50% ((Revenue TTM 4349b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1283b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.28% (prev 70.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 8774b / Total Assets 11928b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 140.9% (Interest Expense 884b / Debt 627b)
Taxrate = 21.20% (280b / 1323b)
NOPAT = 1269b (EBIT 1610b * (1 - 21.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 465b / Total Current Liabilities 7994b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 627b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2611b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.10 (Net Debt 163b / EBITDA 1610b)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (Net Debt 163b / FCF TTM 691b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2515b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.48% (Net Income 1042b / Total Assets 11928b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Total Stockholder Equity 2515b)
RoCE = 56.24% (EBIT 1610b / Capital Employed (Equity 2515b + L.T.Debt 348b))
RoIC = 33.24% (NOPAT 1269b / Invested Capital 3817b)
WACC = 8.40% (E(8611b)/V(9239b) * Re(9.01%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.62 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.78% ; FCFF base≈681b ; Y1≈706b ; Y5≈797b
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.4k (EV 12215b - Net Debt 163b = Equity 12052b / Shares 190.0m; r=8.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.90% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 72.06 | EPS CAGR: 24.97% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.42 | Revenue CAGR: 42.90% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1420.40 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6189.51 | Chg30d=+7.52% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+18.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6702.58 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+17.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=4, down=1)