LGIH Stock Analysis: LGI Homes | NASDAQ
Residential Construction | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.243m USD | 12M Return: -16% | US50187T1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.3M
EPS Trend: -86.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -91.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) is a U.S.-based homebuilder founded in 2003 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas. The company designs, constructs, and sells new homes across 21 states, with a core focus on entry-level attached and detached housing marketed under the LGI Homes brand, active adult communities, and luxury homes offered through its Terrata Homes brand. In addition to its retail homebuilding operations, LGI Homes runs a wholesale segment that builds and sells homes in bulk to institutional buyers for use as single-family rental properties.
As a small-cap member of the Consumer Discretionary sector classified within the GICS Homebuilding sub-industry, LGI Homes operates in a cyclical industry highly sensitive to mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and land/labor costs. Its emphasis on affordable entry-level product positions the company to serve first-time and move-up buyers, while its bulk-sale channel reflects the broader institutional growth of the single-family rental asset class in the U.S. housing market.
- Mortgage rates ease, boosting entry-level housing demand
- Wholesale single-family rental sales lift institutional revenue mix
- Community count expansion supports sustained closing volume growth
| Net Income: 66.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 200.8% < 20% (prev 177.2%; Δ 23.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 132.6m > Net Income 66.2m |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (73.4m): 20.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 18.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.2m) vs 12m ago -0.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.39% > 18% (prev 23.25%; Δ -3.86% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.07% > 50% (prev 51.03%; Δ -7.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.87 (Total Current Assets 3.63b - Total Current Liabilities 200.8m) / Total Assets 3.92b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 2.19b / Total Assets 3.92b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 68.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.96b) |
| D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 2.13b / Total Liabilities 1.79b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.93 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 33.9m/34.6m, Revenue 1.71b/2.04b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 23.25% / 19.39%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.83 (Revenue 1.71b / 2.04b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 66.2m - CFO 132.6m) / TA 3.92b) |
| Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 55.00 with a total of 217,855 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.35%, over one month by -10.51%, over three months by +8.67% and over the past year by -15.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.80 (which is 9.5% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
LGI Homes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold LGIH.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 93 | 69.1% |
P/E Trailing = 18.8869
P/E Forward = 18.797
P/S = 0.7384
P/B = 0.5869
P/EG = 0.69
Revenue TTM = 1.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 68.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 73.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.60m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.59b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.60m
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 1.59b - CCE 61.1m)
Enterprise Value = 2.77b USD (1.24b + Debt 1.59b - CCE 61.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 68.4m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 21.16x (Enterprise Value 2.77b / FCF TTM 131.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.73% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Enterprise Value 2.77b)
FCF Margin = 7.68% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Net Margin = 3.88% (Net Income TTM 66.2m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Gross Margin = 19.39% ((Revenue TTM 1.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.71% (prev 18.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 2.77b / Total Assets 3.92b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.59b)
Taxrate = 27.79% (25.5m / 91.6m)
NOPAT = 49.4m (EBIT 68.4m * (1 - 27.79%))
Current Ratio = 18.06 (Total Current Assets 3.63b / Total Current Liabilities 200.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 1.59b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = 20.84 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 73.4m)
Debt / FCF = 11.67 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 131.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.67% (Net Income 66.2m / Total Assets 3.92b)
RoE = 3.15% (Net Income TTM 66.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.10b)
RoCE = 1.86% (EBIT 68.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.10b + L.T.Debt 1.58b))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 49.4m / Invested Capital 3.66b)
WACC = 4.24% (E(1.24b)/V(2.83b) * Re(9.66%) + D(1.59b)/V(2.83b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 9.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.95 | Cagr: -0.81%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈131.0m ; Y1≈131.5m ; Y5≈139.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 27.46 (EV 2.17b - Net Debt 1.53b = Equity 638.3m / Shares 23.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -86.50 | EPS CAGR: -31.93% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -91.25 | Revenue CAGR: -12.37% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=-24.75% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.92 | Chg30d=-14.12% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-12.6% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=-14.07% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+11.9%