LGIH Stock Analysis: LGI Homes | NASDAQ
Residential Construction | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.161m USD | 12M Return: -7.9% | US50187T1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.4M
EPS Trend: -86.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -91.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
LGI Homes is a US homebuilder founded in 2003 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, listed on NASDAQ since November 2013. The company designs, constructs, and sells new homes across 21 states, with a core focus on entry-level and active adult housing under the LGI Homes brand and luxury offerings under the Terrata Homes brand.
In addition to retail home sales, LGI Homes operates a wholesale business that builds and sells homes in bulk to institutional buyers for use as single-family rental properties. The homebuilding industry is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector and is cyclical, with demand closely tied to mortgage rates, employment trends, and overall housing market conditions.
- Mortgage rate volatility pressures entry-level home affordability
- Wholesale single-family rental bulk sales accelerate
- Sun Belt market exposure amplifies regional price swings
| Net Income: 66.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 200.8% < 20% (prev 177.2%; Δ 23.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 132.6m > Net Income 66.2m |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (73.4m): 20.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 18.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.2m) vs 12m ago -0.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.39% > 18% (prev 23.25%; Δ -3.86% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.07% > 50% (prev 51.03%; Δ -7.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.87 (Total Current Assets 3.63b - Total Current Liabilities 200.8m) / Total Assets 3.92b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 2.19b / Total Assets 3.92b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 68.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.96b) |
| D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 2.13b / Total Liabilities 1.79b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 8.93 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 33.9m/34.6m, Revenue 1.71b/2.04b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 23.25% / 19.39%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.83 (Revenue 1.71b / 2.04b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 66.2m - CFO 132.6m) / TA 3.92b) |
| Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 48.14 with a total of 233,330 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.70%, over one month by -9.93%, over three months by -22.39% and over the past year by -7.92%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 45.20 (which is 6.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
LGI Homes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold LGIH.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 93 | 93.2% |
P/E Trailing = 16.7752
P/E Forward = 18.797
P/S = 0.6901
P/B = 0.5298
P/EG = 0.69
Revenue TTM = 1.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 68.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 73.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.60m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.59b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.60m
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 1.59b - CCE 61.1m)
Enterprise Value = 2.69b USD (1.16b + Debt 1.59b - CCE 61.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 68.4m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 20.54x (Enterprise Value 2.69b / FCF TTM 131.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.87% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Enterprise Value 2.69b)
FCF Margin = 7.68% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Net Margin = 3.88% (Net Income TTM 66.2m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Gross Margin = 19.39% ((Revenue TTM 1.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.71% (prev 18.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 2.69b / Total Assets 3.92b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.59b)
Taxrate = 27.79% (25.5m / 91.6m)
NOPAT = 49.4m (EBIT 68.4m * (1 - 27.79%))
Current Ratio = 18.06 (Total Current Assets 3.63b / Total Current Liabilities 200.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 1.59b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = 20.84 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 73.4m)
Debt / FCF = 11.67 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 131.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.67% (Net Income 66.2m / Total Assets 3.92b)
RoE = 3.15% (Net Income TTM 66.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.10b)
RoCE = 1.86% (EBIT 68.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.10b + L.T.Debt 1.58b))
RoIC = 1.35% (NOPAT 49.4m / Invested Capital 3.66b)
WACC = 4.13% (E(1.16b)/V(2.75b) * Re(9.78%) + D(1.59b)/V(2.75b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 9.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.95 | Cagr: -0.81%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈131.0m ; Y1≈131.5m ; Y5≈139.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 27.48 (EV 2.17b - Net Debt 1.53b = Equity 638.3m / Shares 23.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -86.50 | EPS CAGR: -31.93% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -91.25 | Revenue CAGR: -12.37% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.92 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-12.6% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+12.3%