(LGIH) LGI Homes - Ratings and Ratios
Entry-Level Homes, Active-Adult Homes, Luxury Homes, Wholesale Homes
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 57.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 85.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.13 |
| Alpha | -72.03 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.362 |
| Beta | 0.975 |
| Beta Downside | 0.437 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.07% |
| Mean DD | 30.73% |
| Median DD | 26.60% |
Description: LGIH LGI Homes November 14, 2025
LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) designs, builds, and sells a range of residential properties across the United States, including entry-level and active-adult homes under the LGI brand and luxury homes under the Terrata brand. The company also operates a wholesale segment that constructs single-family rentals for institutional investors. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, LGI’s footprint spans 22 states, from Texas and Florida to California and Washington.
As of its most recent 10-K, LGI reported FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.6 billion and a net income margin of 6.2%, driven by an average selling price (ASP) of roughly $300 k per home and a backlog of over $2.5 billion, indicating robust pipeline visibility into 2025.
Key economic levers for LGI include the prevailing mortgage-rate environment (rates above 7% have pressured affordability), ongoing labor-cost inflation in construction, and demographic trends favoring migration to Sun-Belt markets where the company has a strong presence. Additionally, the broader homebuilding sector is benefiting from a persistent shortage of entry-level inventory, which supports pricing power for builders focused on this segment.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial metrics and scenario analyses for LGI Homes.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income (106.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 107.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.95pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 203.1% (prev 150.1%; Δ 53.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -169.7m <= Net Income 106.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.70b) to EBITDA (118.4m) ratio: 14.32 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 38.79 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (23.1m) change vs 12m ago -1.83% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 22.24% (prev 24.33%; Δ -2.09pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 45.49% (prev 58.91%; Δ -13.42pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -4.23 (EBITDA TTM 118.4m / Interest Expense TTM -27.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 8.97
| (A) 0.90 = (Total Current Assets 3.73b - Total Current Liabilities 96.2m) / Total Assets 4.04b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.14b / Total Assets 4.04b |
| (C) 0.03 = EBIT TTM 114.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.93b |
| (D) 1.09 = Book Value of Equity 2.14b / Total Liabilities 1.96b |
| Total Rating: 8.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 30.68
| 1. Piotroski 0.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -6.08% |
| 3. FCF Margin -9.57% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.84 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 14.32 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.79)% |
| 7. RoE 5.17% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -56.56% |
| 9. EPS Trend -60.93% |
What is the price of LGIH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.39%, over one month by -10.54%, over three months by -21.45% and over the past year by -52.21%.
Is LGIH a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LGIH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 73.3 | 69.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 73.3 | 69.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.1 | -21.1% |
LGIH Fundamental Data Overview December 16, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.7743
P/E Forward = 10.7875
P/S = 0.6283
P/B = 0.5405
P/EG = 0.69
Beta = 1.853
Revenue TTM = 1.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 114.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.76b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 506.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.70b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.82b USD (1.12b + Debt 1.76b - CCE 62.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.23 (Ebit TTM 114.5m / Interest Expense TTM -27.1m)
FCF Yield = -6.08% (FCF TTM -171.3m / Enterprise Value 2.82b)
FCF Margin = -9.57% (FCF TTM -171.3m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Net Margin = 5.93% (Net Income TTM 106.1m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Gross Margin = 22.24% ((Revenue TTM 1.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.71% (prev 22.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 2.82b / Total Assets 4.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -1.54% (Interest Expense -27.1m / Debt 1.76b)
Taxrate = 26.21% (7.00m / 26.7m)
NOPAT = 84.5m (EBIT 114.5m * (1 - 26.21%))
Current Ratio = 38.79 (Total Current Assets 3.73b / Total Current Liabilities 96.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.84 (Debt 1.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.32 (Net Debt 1.70b / EBITDA 118.4m)
Debt / FCF = -9.90 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.70b / FCF TTM -171.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.63% (Net Income 106.1m / Total Assets 4.04b)
RoE = 5.17% (Net Income TTM 106.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.05b)
RoCE = 3.00% (EBIT 114.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.05b + L.T.Debt 1.76b))
RoIC = 2.27% (NOPAT 84.5m / Invested Capital 3.73b)
WACC = 3.06% (E(1.12b)/V(2.88b) * Re(9.61%) + D(1.76b)/V(2.88b) * Rd(-1.54%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.06%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -171.3m)
EPS Correlation: -60.93 | EPS CAGR: -35.99% | SUE: -0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.56 | Revenue CAGR: -17.09% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-0.113 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.36 | Chg30d=-0.398 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+24.6% | Growth Revenue=+17.7%
Additional Sources for LGIH Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle