(LI) Li Auto - Ratings and Ratios
Electric,SUV,MPV,Premium,Smart
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 60.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.23 |
| Alpha | -28.58 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.582 |
| Beta | 0.627 |
| Beta Downside | 0.586 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 62.17% |
| Mean DD | 33.42% |
| Median DD | 38.64% |
Description: LI Li Auto October 14, 2025
Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) is a Chinese premium smart-electric-vehicle manufacturer founded in 2015 and headquartered in Beijing. The firm designs, develops, manufactures, and sells multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) under a single brand, and it provides sales, after-sales, technology development, and corporate management services through both online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. before rebranding to Li Auto in July 2020.
As of FY 2023, Li Auto delivered roughly 91 k vehicles, generating CNY 33.5 bn in revenue and achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 12 %, reflecting the firm’s focus on higher-priced, range-extended EVs. The company benefits from China’s continued NEV (new-energy-vehicle) subsidy regime, which, despite gradual phase-outs, still supports demand for premium models, and from a broader sector trend of accelerating battery cost declines-estimated at a 13 % YoY reduction in 2023-that improve vehicle economics. Competitive pressure from BYD, Nio, and Tesla’s Shanghai operations remains a key risk factor for market share growth.
For a data-driven breakdown of Li Auto’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful starting point.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (8.08b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.60b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -9.02pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.51% (prev 35.41%; Δ 1.10pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 14.97b > Net Income 8.08b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-32.87b) to EBITDA (11.25b) ratio: -2.92 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.73 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.07b) change vs 12m ago 0.83% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.64% (prev 21.61%; Δ -0.97pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 93.55% (prev 92.15%; Δ 1.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 40.89 (EBITDA TTM 11.25b / Interest Expense TTM 213.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.91
| (A) 0.32 = (Total Current Assets 123.54b - Total Current Liabilities 71.21b) / Total Assets 161.29b |
| (B) 0.08 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 12.66b / Total Assets 161.29b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 8.75b / Avg Total Assets 153.20b |
| (D) 0.14 = Book Value of Equity 12.25b / Total Liabilities 87.66b |
| Total Rating: 2.91 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.57
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 21.62% |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.10% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.23 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.92 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.02)% |
| 7. RoE 11.44% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 85.70% |
| 9. EPS Trend 53.44% |
What is the price of LI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.99%, over one month by -14.52%, over three months by -25.23% and over the past year by -15.57%.
Is LI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 28.1 | 52.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 28.1 | 52.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 18.2 | -1.2% |
LI Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 16.9346
P/E Forward = 13.1926
P/S = 0.1281
P/B = 1.7746
P/EG = 1.3881
Beta = 0.473
Revenue TTM = 143.32b CNY
EBIT TTM = 8.75b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 11.25b CNY
Long Term Debt = 1.83b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.12b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.92b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -32.87b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 40.41b CNY (130.41b + Debt 16.92b - CCE 106.92b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 40.89 (Ebit TTM 8.75b / Interest Expense TTM 213.9m)
FCF Yield = 21.62% (FCF TTM 8.74b / Enterprise Value 40.41b)
FCF Margin = 6.10% (FCF TTM 8.74b / Revenue TTM 143.32b)
Net Margin = 5.64% (Net Income TTM 8.08b / Revenue TTM 143.32b)
Gross Margin = 20.64% ((Revenue TTM 143.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 113.74b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.06% (prev 20.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 40.41b / Total Assets 161.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.29% (Interest Expense 49.8m / Debt 16.92b)
Taxrate = 14.90% (192.0m / 1.29b)
NOPAT = 7.44b (EBIT 8.75b * (1 - 14.90%))
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 123.54b / Total Current Liabilities 71.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 16.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 73.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.92 (Net Debt -32.87b / EBITDA 11.25b)
Debt / FCF = -3.76 (Net Debt -32.87b / FCF TTM 8.74b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 70.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.01% (Net Income 8.08b / Total Assets 161.29b)
RoE = 11.44% (Net Income TTM 8.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 70.60b)
RoCE = 12.07% (EBIT 8.75b / Capital Employed (Equity 70.60b + L.T.Debt 1.83b))
RoIC = 9.41% (NOPAT 7.44b / Invested Capital 79.08b)
WACC = 7.39% (E(130.41b)/V(147.33b) * Re(8.32%) + D(16.92b)/V(147.33b) * Rd(0.29%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.32%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.19% ; FCFE base≈13.63b ; Y1≈11.98b ; Y5≈9.82b
Fair Price DCF = 202.9 (DCF Value 169.52b / Shares Outstanding 835.4m; 5y FCF grow -14.84% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 53.44 | EPS CAGR: 16.97% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.70 | Revenue CAGR: 43.65% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for LI Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle