LITE Stock Analysis: Lumentum Holdings | NASDAQ

Optical Chips, Photonic Modules, Fiber Lasers, Diode Lasers

Total Rating 64

Safety 34

Buy Signal 1.33

Communication Equipment
Industry Rotation: +26.2

Market Cap: 74.2B
Avg Turnover: 4.13B

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility105%

VaR 5^th Pctl18.2%

VaR vs Median5.21%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio2.52

Rel. Str. IBD99.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group98.3

Character TTM

Beta3.249

Beta Downside1.893

Hurst Exponent0.359

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD50.63%

CAGR/Max DD3.13

CAGR/Mean DD11.81

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 62.84%
EPS Trend: 59.8%

Last SUE: 0.28
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 29.11%
Rev. Trend: 82.7%

Last SUE: 3.99
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Confidence

Tailwind

Seasonality 11 years of data

Jan -3.5% 12

Feb -3.1% 17

Mar -0.8% 16

Apr -6.7% 29

May +3.5% 16

Jun +4.0% 24

Jul +2.1% 18

Aug +3.9% 17

Sep -4.3% 25

Oct +1.8% 0

Nov +6.3% 28

Dec -0.7% 23

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: LITE Lumentum Holdings

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of optical and photonic products, headquartered in San Jose, California. The company sells its products globally across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, operating through two reporting segments: Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech.

The Cloud & Networking segment supplies optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturers. Demand drivers in this segment include the buildout of hyperscale data centers and next-generation telecom networks, where high-bandwidth optical interconnect technology is a critical enabler of AI workloads and cloud computing capacity.

The Industrial Tech segment produces short-pulse solid-state lasers, kilowatt-class fiber lasers, diode lasers, and gas lasers. These products are used in advanced manufacturing applications across semiconductor fabrication, solar cell production, display manufacturing, and electric vehicle and battery production.

The company was incorporated in 2015 and trades as a large-cap stock within the Information Technology sector (Communications Equipment sub-industry), with a market capitalization of approximately $71.7 billion USD.

Headlines to Watch Out For

AI hyperscaler capex accelerates Cloud & Networking segment growth
Industrial Tech laser demand softens on weak semiconductor capex cycle
Coherent competition and 1.6T transition pressures optical component pricing

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0

Net Income: -6.94b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.02 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 55.79% < 20% (prev 80.52%; Δ -24.73% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 751.4m > Net Income -6.94b
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.68 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (74.6m) vs 12m ago 3.61% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.67% > 18% (prev 27.96%; Δ 13.71% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 52.30% > 50% (prev 38.99%; Δ 13.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -328.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM -7.15b / Interest Expense TTM 21.8m)

Altman Z'' -8.48

A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 4.16b - Total Current Liabilities 2.48b) / Total Assets 7.31b
B: -1.07 (Retained Earnings -7.80b / Total Assets 7.31b)
C: -1.24 (EBIT TTM -7.15b / Avg Total Assets 5.76b)
D: 1.74 (Book Value of Equity 4.64b / Total Liabilities 2.66b)
Altman-Z'' = -8.48 = D

Beneish M -2.94

DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 520.3m/250.0m, Revenue 3.01b/1.65b)
GMI: 0.67 (GM 27.96% / 41.67%)
AQI: 0.65 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.41)
SGI: 1.83 (Revenue 3.01b / 1.65b)
TATA: -1.05 (NI -6.94b - CFO 751.4m) / TA 7.31b)
Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of LITE shares?

As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 866.71 with a total of 3,658,217 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.42%, over one month by +3.48%, over three months by -10.14% and over the past year by +638.07%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 732.10 (which is 15.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is LITE a buy, sell or hold?

Lumentum Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.19. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LITE.

StrongBuy: 8
Buy: 4
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the LITE price?

Analysts Target Price	1148.3	32.5%

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 74.2b (74.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 40.0
P/S = 24.6303
P/B = 16.8686
P/EG = 0.6304
Revenue TTM = 3.01b USD
EBIT TTM = -7.15b USD
EBITDA TTM = -7.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.61b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 31.9m
Net Debt = -1.04b USD (calculated: Debt 1.70b - CCE 2.74b)
Enterprise Value = 73.2b USD (74.2b + Debt 1.70b - CCE 2.74b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -328.0 (Ebit TTM -7.15b / Interest Expense TTM 21.8m)
EV/FCF = 133.0x (Enterprise Value 73.2b / FCF TTM 550.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.75% (FCF TTM 550.5m / Enterprise Value 73.2b)
FCF Margin = 18.26% (FCF TTM 550.5m / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Net Margin = -230.1% (Net Income TTM -6.94b / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Gross Margin = 41.67% ((Revenue TTM 3.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.76b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.43% (prev 44.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 10.02 (Enterprise Value 73.2b / Total Assets 7.31b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.28% (Interest Expense 21.8m / Debt 1.70b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -5.65b (EBIT -7.15b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 4.16b / Total Current Liabilities 2.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 1.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.15 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.04b / EBITDA -7.02b)
Debt / FCF = -1.88 (Net Debt -1.04b / FCF TTM 550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -120.3% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -300.1% (Net Income TTM -6.94b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.31b)
RoCE = -304.1% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -7.15b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.31b + L.T.Debt 40.5m))
RoIC = -89.86% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -5.65b / Invested Capital 6.29b)
WACC = 17.04% (E(74.2b)/V(75.9b) * Re(17.41%) + D(1.70b)/V(75.9b) * Rd(1.28%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 17.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 72.72 | Cagr: 4.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 51.03% ; FCFF base≈550.5m ; Y1≈552.8m ; Y5≈585.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 52.59 (EV 3.68b - Net Debt -1.04b = Equity 4.72b / Shares 89.7m; r=17.04% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 59.81 | EPS CAGR: 62.84% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.68 | Revenue CAGR: 29.11% | SUE: 3.99 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.63 | Chg30d=+0.62% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=20
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=5.01 | Chg30d=+14.89% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=18.73 | Chg30d=+3.33% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+116.1% | GrowthRev=+88.9%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=29.85 | Chg30d=+5.55% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+59.3% | GrowthRev=+53.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +88% (up=21, down=0)