(LITE) Lumentum Holdings - Overview
Stock: Optical, Photonic, Laser, Module, Component
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 77.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.32 |
| Alpha | 370.71 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.299 |
| Beta Downside | 2.366 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.70 |
Description: LITE Lumentum Holdings January 10, 2026
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) designs, manufactures, and sells optical and photonic components worldwide, serving customers across the Americas, APAC, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The firm operates two primary segments: Cloud & Networking, which supplies chips, modules and subsystems for data-center and AI/ML infrastructure; and Industrial Tech, which provides short-pulse solid-state, fiber, diode and gas lasers for semiconductor, solar, display, and electric-vehicle/battery production.
In fiscal 2023 the company reported roughly $1.6 billion in revenue, with the Cloud & Networking segment contributing about 58 % and Industrial Tech the remaining 42 %. Operating margins hovered near 10 % after a 2022-23 restructuring that reduced SG&A expenses by ~12 %. Free cash flow turned positive in Q4 2023, supporting a modest share-repurchase program announced in early 2024.
Key growth drivers include (1) the accelerating build-out of hyperscale data centers, where total capex is projected to rise ~10 % YoY through 2026, fueling demand for high-speed transceivers and photonic integration; (2) the surge in AI/ML workloads, which pushes network bandwidth requirements and creates a tail-winds for Lumentum’s advanced optical modules; and (3) expanding semiconductor and EV-battery manufacturing, which underpins the Industrial Tech laser market-global laser-based wafer processing equipment is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~8 % over the next five years.
Given these dynamics, a deeper quantitative dive-such as the one offered by ValueRay’s analyst platform-could help you assess whether LITE’s valuation reflects its growth prospects and risk profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 112.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.37% < 20% (prev 103.2%; Δ -72.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 144.6m > Net Income 112.5m |
| Net Debt (2.51b) to EBITDA (183.0m): 13.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.37 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (78.3m) vs 12m ago 14.64% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.59% > 18% (prev 0.20%; Δ 3039 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.92% > 50% (prev 32.51%; Δ 10.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 183.0m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m) |
Altman Z'' -0.14
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 2.09b - Total Current Liabilities 1.53b) / Total Assets 4.61b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -857.0m / Total Assets 4.61b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -65.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.29b) |
| D: -0.22 (Book Value of Equity -837.1m / Total Liabilities 3.83b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.14 = B |
Beneish M -3.04
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 307.0m/198.5m, Revenue 1.84b/1.29b) |
| GMI: 0.65 (GM 30.59% / 20.02%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.42) |
| SGI: 1.43 (Revenue 1.84b / 1.29b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 112.5m - CFO 144.6m) / TA 4.61b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of LITE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.52%, over one month by +5.57%, over three months by +95.79% and over the past year by +366.59%.
Is LITE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LITE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 350.6 | -10.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 350.6 | -10.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 418.9 | 6.9% |
LITE Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 64.9351
P/S = 15.5951
P/B = 34.6425
P/EG = 0.97
Revenue TTM = 1.84b USD
EBIT TTM = -65.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 183.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.16b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.51b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 30.93b USD (28.77b + Debt 3.28b - CCE 1.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.92 (Ebit TTM -65.3m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m)
EV/FCF = -349.5x (Enterprise Value 30.93b / FCF TTM -88.5m)
FCF Yield = -0.29% (FCF TTM -88.5m / Enterprise Value 30.93b)
FCF Margin = -4.80% (FCF TTM -88.5m / Revenue TTM 1.84b)
Net Margin = 6.11% (Net Income TTM 112.5m / Revenue TTM 1.84b)
Gross Margin = 30.59% ((Revenue TTM 1.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.00% (prev 33.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.71 (Enterprise Value 30.93b / Total Assets 4.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.17% (Interest Expense 5.70m / Debt 3.28b)
Taxrate = 19.23% (1.00m / 5.20m)
NOPAT = -52.7m (EBIT -65.3m * (1 - 19.23%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.37 (Total Current Assets 2.09b / Total Current Liabilities 1.53b)
Debt / Equity = 4.20 (Debt 3.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 780.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.70 (Net Debt 2.51b / EBITDA 183.0m)
Debt / FCF = -28.33 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.51b / FCF TTM -88.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 916.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.62% (Net Income 112.5m / Total Assets 4.61b)
RoE = 12.27% (Net Income TTM 112.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 916.8m)
RoCE = -2.12% (EBIT -65.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 916.8m + L.T.Debt 2.16b))
RoIC = -1.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -52.7m / Invested Capital 3.66b)
WACC = 12.93% (E(28.77b)/V(32.05b) * Re(14.39%) + D(3.28b)/V(32.05b) * Rd(0.17%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 14.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.46%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -88.5m)
EPS Correlation: -57.41 | EPS CAGR: -55.88% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.38 | Revenue CAGR: 4.86% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=+0.072 | Revisions Net=+8 | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=5.86 | Chg30d=+0.176 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+184.6% | Growth Revenue=+60.7%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=9.20 | Chg30d=+1.017 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+56.9% | Growth Revenue=+37.8%