(LITE) Lumentum Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Optical Chips, Laser Systems, Photonic Modules, Fiber Lasers, Diode Sources
LITE EPS (Earnings per Share)
LITE Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 105% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 123% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.55% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.66 |
| Alpha | 140.94 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.386 |
| Beta | 2.339 |
| Beta Downside | 2.638 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.63% |
| Mean DD | 16.61% |
| Median DD | 16.02% |
Description: LITE Lumentum Holdings November 07, 2025
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) designs, manufactures, and sells optical and photonic components across five global regions, operating through two distinct segments: Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech. The Cloud & Networking segment supplies chips, modules, and subsystems to data-center operators, AI/ML infrastructure firms, and network-equipment makers building high-capacity cloud and telecom networks. The Industrial Tech segment delivers short-pulse solid-state, kilowatt-class fiber, diode, and gas lasers to end-markets such as semiconductor device fabrication, solar-cell production, display manufacturing, and electric-vehicle/battery assembly.
Key recent metrics show LITE generated **$2.03 billion in revenue for FY 2023**, with the Cloud & Networking segment contributing roughly **62 %** of sales and posting an **operating margin of 15 %**-well above the industry average of ~10 % for photonics firms. The Industrial Tech segment saw a **12 % year-over-year revenue lift**, driven by a **~7 % CAGR** in the global laser equipment market and accelerating demand for EV battery manufacturing capacity. The company’s **order backlog stood at $1.2 billion** at quarter-end, indicating multi-quarter visibility amid ongoing supply-chain tightening for semiconductor-grade lasers.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect LITE’s outlook include (1) the **exponential growth in AI-driven cloud compute**, which is expanding data-center bandwidth needs and thus optical-module demand; (2) **government and private investment in domestic semiconductor fabs**, sustaining laser-tool spend; and (3) **rising EV-battery production**, which lifts demand for high-precision laser processing. Conversely, any slowdown in semiconductor capex or a prolonged shortage of rare-earth materials could compress margins.
For a deeper quantitative view of LITE’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform a useful next step.
LITE Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 17,027m |
| Sub-Industry | Communications Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 2015-08-04 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 138% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.19 of 5 |
LITE Dividends
Currently no dividends paidLITE Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 61.16% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.21 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.68 |
| Current Volume | 4483.9k |
| Average Volume | 4483.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (64.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 104.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.09pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 32.27% (prev 103.2%; Δ -70.88pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 144.6m > Net Income 64.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.51b) to EBITDA (136.5m) ratio: 18.37 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.37 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (72.0m) change vs 12m ago 5.42% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 29.11% (prev 20.02%; Δ 9.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 40.39% (prev 32.51%; Δ 7.88pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -4.90 (EBITDA TTM 136.5m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.21
| (A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 2.09b - Total Current Liabilities 1.53b) / Total Assets 4.61b |
| (B) -0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -857.0m / Total Assets 4.61b |
| (C) -0.03 = EBIT TTM -109.7m / Avg Total Assets 4.29b |
| (D) -0.22 = Book Value of Equity -837.1m / Total Liabilities 3.83b |
| Total Rating: -0.21 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 30.90
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.46% = -0.23 |
| 3. FCF Margin -5.11% = -1.91 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 4.20 = -2.19 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 18.37 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -17.85)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE 7.00% = 0.58 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 20.00% = 1.50 |
| 9. EPS Trend -6.86% = -0.34 |
What is the price of LITE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.32%, over one month by +48.07%, over three months by +102.54% and over the past year by +172.70%.
Is Lumentum Holdings a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of LITE is around 220.05 USD . This means that LITE is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -5.21%.
Is LITE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LITE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 219.3 | -5.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 219.3 | -5.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 253.7 | 9.3% |
LITE Fundamental Data Overview November 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 147.3068
P/E Forward = 33.8983
P/S = 9.2442
P/B = 10.457
P/EG = 0.97
Beta = 1.59
Revenue TTM = 1.73b USD
EBIT TTM = -109.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 136.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.56b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.51b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.19b USD (17.03b + Debt 3.28b - CCE 1.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.90 (Ebit TTM -109.7m / Interest Expense TTM 22.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.46% (FCF TTM -88.5m / Enterprise Value 19.19b)
FCF Margin = -5.11% (FCF TTM -88.5m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Net Margin = 3.70% (Net Income TTM 64.2m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Gross Margin = 29.11% ((Revenue TTM 1.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.26% (prev 28.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.16 (Enterprise Value 19.19b / Total Assets 4.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.16% (Interest Expense 5.40m / Debt 3.28b)
Taxrate = 1971 % (out of range, set to none) (-224.7m / -11.4m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 1.37 (Total Current Assets 2.09b / Total Current Liabilities 1.53b)
Debt / Equity = 4.20 (Debt 3.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 780.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.37 (Net Debt 2.51b / EBITDA 136.5m)
Debt / FCF = -28.33 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.51b / FCF TTM -88.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 916.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.39% (Net Income 64.2m / Total Assets 4.61b)
RoE = 7.00% (Net Income TTM 64.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 916.8m)
RoCE = -3.15% (EBIT -109.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 916.8m + L.T.Debt 2.56b))
RoIC = -5.58% (negative operating profit) (EBIT -109.7m / (Assets 4.61b - Curr.Liab 1.53b - Cash 1.12b))
WACC = 12.27% (E(17.03b)/V(20.31b) * Re(14.63%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 14.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.05%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -88.5m)
EPS Correlation: -6.86 | EPS CAGR: -11.09% | SUE: 3.50 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 20.00 | Revenue CAGR: -1.85% | SUE: -1.84 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for LITE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle