LOCO Stock Analysis: El Pollo Loco Holdings | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 508m USD | 12M Return: 46.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.01M
EPS Trend: 96.9%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 84.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) is a quick-service restaurant (QSR) company that develops, franchises, licenses, and operates restaurants under the El Pollo Loco brand, specializing in Mexican-inspired flame-grilled chicken. The company operates through a hybrid business model that combines company-owned restaurants with franchised and licensed locations, generating revenue from restaurant sales, franchise royalties, and licensing fees-a structure common across the QSR sector.
The companys restaurant footprint is heavily concentrated in the western and southwestern United States, spanning California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana, with an international presence through brand licensing in the Philippines. Founded in 1975 and headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, the company was originally formed as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and adopted its current name in April 2014, followed by its IPO in July 2014. As a small-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, LOCO operates within the restaurant sub-industry alongside other branded QSR chains.
- California minimum wage hikes pressure restaurant margins
- Chicken commodity costs squeeze restaurant operating margins
- Same-store sales growth drives franchised revenue gains
| Net Income: 29.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.00% < 20% (prev -10.71%; Δ 0.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 56.3m > Net Income 29.2m |
| Net Debt (418.0m) to EBITDA (62.1m): 6.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.34 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.7m) vs 12m ago 1.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.99% > 18% (prev 21.46%; Δ 3.53% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.87% > 50% (prev 80.62%; Δ 2.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 45.7m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 25.9m - Total Current Liabilities 75.6m) / Total Assets 609.1m |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 51.7m / Total Assets 609.1m) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 45.7m / Avg Total Assets 599.8m) |
| D: 0.99 (Book Value of Equity 302.5m / Total Liabilities 306.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.29 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 13.7m/12.5m, Revenue 497.1m/476.0m) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 21.46% / 24.99%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.53) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 497.1m / 476.0m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 29.2m - CFO 56.3m) / TA 609.1m) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.43 with a total of 158,260 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.48%, over one month by +13.86%, over three months by +17.02% and over the past year by +46.17%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.30 (which is 6.9% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
El Pollo Loco Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold LOCO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.7 | 13.8% |
P/E Trailing = 17.0204
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 1.022
P/B = 1.6793
P/EG = 1.16
Revenue TTM = 497.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 45.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 62.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 16.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 421.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 189.0m
Net Debt = 418.0m USD (calculated: Debt 421.9m - CCE 3.90m)
Enterprise Value = 926.0m USD (508.0m + Debt 421.9m - CCE 3.90m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.35 (Ebit TTM 45.7m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m)
EV/FCF = 34.48x (Enterprise Value 926.0m / FCF TTM 26.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.90% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Enterprise Value 926.0m)
FCF Margin = 5.40% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Revenue TTM 497.1m)
Net Margin = 5.87% (Net Income TTM 29.2m / Revenue TTM 497.1m)
Gross Margin = 24.99% ((Revenue TTM 497.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 372.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.78% (prev 22.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.52 (Enterprise Value 926.0m / Total Assets 609.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.95% (Interest Expense 4.03m / Debt 421.9m)
Taxrate = 29.33% (12.1m / 41.3m)
NOPAT = 32.3m (EBIT 45.7m * (1 - 29.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 25.9m / Total Current Liabilities 75.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.39 (Debt 421.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 302.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.73 (Net Debt 418.0m / EBITDA 62.1m)
Debt / FCF = 15.57 (Net Debt 418.0m / FCF TTM 26.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 287.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.86% (Net Income 29.2m / Total Assets 609.1m)
RoE = 10.14% (Net Income TTM 29.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 287.7m)
RoCE = 13.78% (EBIT 45.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 287.7m + L.T.Debt 44.0m))
RoIC = 5.91% (NOPAT 32.3m / Invested Capital 546.1m)
WACC = 4.71% (E(508.0m)/V(929.9m) * Re(8.07%) + D(421.9m)/V(929.9m) * Rd(0.95%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 8.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -37.78 | Cagr: -3.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈24.9m ; Y1≈28.6m ; Y5≈42.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.06 (EV 633.0m - Net Debt 418.0m = Equity 214.9m / Shares 30.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.90 | EPS CAGR: 16.00% | SUE: 2.54 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 84.46 | Revenue CAGR: 1.72% | SUE: 3.33 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-0.7% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=1, down=9)