(LOCO) El Pollo Loco Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US2686031079
Grilled Chicken, Tacos, Burritos, Salads, Sides
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 47.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.08 |
| Alpha | -15.24 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.452 |
| Beta | 0.477 |
| Beta Downside | 0.874 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.19% |
| Mean DD | 21.46% |
| Median DD | 23.67% |
Description: LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings December 31, 2025
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) operates and franchises quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco brand across seven U.S. states and licenses the name in the Philippines. The company, originally incorporated as Chicken Acquisition Corp., rebranded in 2014 and traces its roots to a 1975 founding, with headquarters in Costa Mesa, California.
As of Q3 2024 the chain runs roughly 440 locations, reporting a 7% year-over-year same-store sales increase and an average unit volume of about $1.2 million, while maintaining an operating margin near 15%. Key economic drivers include rising consumer demand for fast-casual, protein-focused meals and the impact of commodity price volatility on chicken costs; labor market tightness continues to pressure operating expenses across the restaurant sector.
For a deeper quantitative view of LOCO’s risk-adjusted returns, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (25.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 28.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.30pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.61% (prev -11.06%; Δ 2.45pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 39.8m > Net Income 25.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (180.5m) to EBITDA (56.5m) ratio: 3.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.41 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (29.4m) change vs 12m ago -0.06% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 22.59% (prev 21.66%; Δ 0.93pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 80.62% (prev 79.83%; Δ 0.80pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 8.54 (EBITDA TTM 56.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.78m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.33
| (A) -0.07 = (Total Current Assets 28.5m - Total Current Liabilities 69.8m) / Total Assets 602.7m |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 37.0m / Total Assets 602.7m |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 40.8m / Avg Total Assets 596.4m |
| (D) 0.12 = Book Value of Equity 37.3m / Total Liabilities 319.8m |
| Total Rating: 0.33 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.76
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.17% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.47% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.68 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.19 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.52)% |
| 7. RoE 9.56% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 47.79% |
| 9. EPS Trend 20.11% |
What is the price of LOCO shares?
As of January 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.06 with a total of 188,741 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.65%, over one month by -3.07%, over three months by +20.23% and over the past year by -2.49%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.65%, over one month by -3.07%, over three months by +20.23% and over the past year by -2.49%.
Is LOCO a buy, sell or hold?
El Pollo Loco Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold LOCO.
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LOCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.5 | 31.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.5 | 31.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12 | 8.4% |
LOCO Fundamental Data Overview January 13, 2026
P/E Trailing = 12.6818
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 0.6962
P/B = 1.1815
P/EG = 1.16
Revenue TTM = 480.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 40.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 61.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 191.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 180.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 515.2m USD (334.7m + Debt 191.3m - CCE 10.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.54 (Ebit TTM 40.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.78m)
EV/FCF = 23.98x (Enterprise Value 515.2m / FCF TTM 21.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.17% (FCF TTM 21.5m / Enterprise Value 515.2m)
FCF Margin = 4.47% (FCF TTM 21.5m / Revenue TTM 480.8m)
Net Margin = 5.39% (Net Income TTM 25.9m / Revenue TTM 480.8m)
Gross Margin = 22.59% ((Revenue TTM 480.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 372.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.04% (prev 19.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 515.2m / Total Assets 602.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.59% (Interest Expense 1.12m / Debt 191.3m)
Taxrate = 28.81% (2.98m / 10.3m)
NOPAT = 29.0m (EBIT 40.8m * (1 - 28.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.41 (Total Current Assets 28.5m / Total Current Liabilities 69.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.68 (Debt 191.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 282.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (Net Debt 180.5m / EBITDA 56.5m)
Debt / FCF = 8.40 (Net Debt 180.5m / FCF TTM 21.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 270.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.34% (Net Income 25.9m / Total Assets 602.7m)
RoE = 9.56% (Net Income TTM 25.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 270.9m)
RoCE = 12.29% (EBIT 40.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 270.9m + L.T.Debt 61.0m))
RoIC = 8.56% (NOPAT 29.0m / Invested Capital 339.4m)
WACC = 5.03% (E(334.7m)/V(526.1m) * Re(7.67%) + D(191.3m)/V(526.1m) * Rd(0.59%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.94% ; FCFF base≈24.4m ; Y1≈23.4m ; Y5≈23.0m
Fair Price DCF = 16.95 (EV 688.3m - Net Debt 180.5m = Equity 507.8m / Shares 30.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -5.10% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 20.11 | EPS CAGR: -33.39% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.79 | Revenue CAGR: 2.95% | SUE: -1.97 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+2.1% | Growth Revenue=+1.7%
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 0.6962
P/B = 1.1815
P/EG = 1.16
Revenue TTM = 480.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 40.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 61.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 191.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 180.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 515.2m USD (334.7m + Debt 191.3m - CCE 10.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.54 (Ebit TTM 40.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.78m)
EV/FCF = 23.98x (Enterprise Value 515.2m / FCF TTM 21.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.17% (FCF TTM 21.5m / Enterprise Value 515.2m)
FCF Margin = 4.47% (FCF TTM 21.5m / Revenue TTM 480.8m)
Net Margin = 5.39% (Net Income TTM 25.9m / Revenue TTM 480.8m)
Gross Margin = 22.59% ((Revenue TTM 480.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 372.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.04% (prev 19.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 515.2m / Total Assets 602.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.59% (Interest Expense 1.12m / Debt 191.3m)
Taxrate = 28.81% (2.98m / 10.3m)
NOPAT = 29.0m (EBIT 40.8m * (1 - 28.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.41 (Total Current Assets 28.5m / Total Current Liabilities 69.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.68 (Debt 191.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 282.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (Net Debt 180.5m / EBITDA 56.5m)
Debt / FCF = 8.40 (Net Debt 180.5m / FCF TTM 21.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 270.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.34% (Net Income 25.9m / Total Assets 602.7m)
RoE = 9.56% (Net Income TTM 25.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 270.9m)
RoCE = 12.29% (EBIT 40.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 270.9m + L.T.Debt 61.0m))
RoIC = 8.56% (NOPAT 29.0m / Invested Capital 339.4m)
WACC = 5.03% (E(334.7m)/V(526.1m) * Re(7.67%) + D(191.3m)/V(526.1m) * Rd(0.59%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.94% ; FCFF base≈24.4m ; Y1≈23.4m ; Y5≈23.0m
Fair Price DCF = 16.95 (EV 688.3m - Net Debt 180.5m = Equity 507.8m / Shares 30.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -5.10% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 20.11 | EPS CAGR: -33.39% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.79 | Revenue CAGR: 2.95% | SUE: -1.97 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+2.1% | Growth Revenue=+1.7%
Additional Sources for LOCO Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle