(LOCO) El Pollo Loco Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Grilled Chicken, Chicken Meals, Fast Food, Mexican Food, Chicken
LOCO EPS (Earnings per Share)
LOCO Revenue
Description: LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:LOCO) is a quick-service restaurant company that develops, franchises, and operates restaurants under its brand name. The company has a presence in several US states, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana, and licenses its brand to restaurants in the Philippines.
To evaluate the companys performance, we can look at key performance indicators (KPIs) such as same-store sales growth, unit growth, and system-wide sales. A strong same-store sales growth indicates the companys ability to drive sales at existing locations, while unit growth reflects the companys ability to expand its footprint. System-wide sales, which include sales from both company-owned and franchised locations, provide a comprehensive view of the companys revenue growth.
From a profitability perspective, we can analyze metrics such as gross margin, operating margin, and EBITDA margin. These metrics help us understand the companys ability to maintain profitability and manage costs. Additionally, we can examine the companys return on equity (RoE) and return on assets (RoA) to evaluate its ability to generate returns for shareholders and utilize its assets efficiently.
Considering the companys financials and KPIs, we can assess its valuation using metrics such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio. These metrics help us determine whether the companys stock is undervalued or overvalued relative to its earnings and cash flow generation capabilities.
LOCO Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 311m |
| Sub-Industry | Restaurants |
| IPO / Inception | 2014-07-25 |
LOCO Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -51.2% |
| Fundamental | 62.0% |
| Dividend Rating | 1.0% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -33.5% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.80 of 5 |
LOCO Dividends
Currently no dividends paidLOCO Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -5.2% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -82.6% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -45.2% |
| CAGR 5y | -6.83% |
| CAGR/Max DD 5y | -0.11 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -1.72 |
| Alpha | -41.80 |
| Beta | 1.265 |
| Volatility | 33.70% |
| Current Volume | 157.3k |
| Average Volume 20d | 210.4k |
| Stop Loss | 9.9 (-3.6%) |
| Signal | -1.84 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (24.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 28.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.61pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -10.41% (prev -10.38%; Δ -0.04pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 37.5m > Net Income 24.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (249.3m) to EBITDA (55.3m) ratio: 4.51 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.35 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (29.3m) change vs 12m ago -3.64% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 19.80% (prev 20.78%; Δ -0.98pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 80.58% (prev 79.31%; Δ 1.27pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.60 (EBITDA TTM 55.3m / Interest Expense TTM 5.19m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.16
| (A) -0.08 = (Total Current Assets 26.8m - Total Current Liabilities 76.8m) / Total Assets 596.8m |
| (B) 0.05 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 29.7m / Total Assets 596.8m |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 39.5m / Avg Total Assets 595.3m |
| (D) 0.09 = Book Value of Equity 30.0m / Total Liabilities 322.6m |
| Total Rating: 0.16 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.04
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.26% = 2.63 |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.32% = 1.08 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.33 = 2.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.66 = 0.67 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC 0.07% = 0.09 |
| 7. RoE 9.37% = 0.78 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 30.39% = 1.52 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 1.78% = 0.22 |
| 10. EPS Trend 51.93% = 1.30 |
| 11. EPS CAGR 23.06% = 2.31 |
What is the price of LOCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.93%, over one month by -2.56%, over three months by +12.12% and over the past year by -23.13%.
Is El Pollo Loco Holdings a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of LOCO is around 8.63 USD . This means that LOCO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -15.97%.
Is LOCO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LOCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14 | 36.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14 | 36.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.6 | -6.2% |
Last update: 2025-08-14 02:56
LOCO Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 8.99m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 12.2118
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 0.6491
P/B = 1.1356
P/EG = 1.16
Beta = 0.925
Revenue TTM = 479.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 39.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 55.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 69.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 22.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 91.6m USD (Calculated: Short Term 22.6m + Long Term 69.0m)
Net Debt = 249.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 394.0m USD (311.4m + Debt 91.6m - CCE 8.99m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.60 (Ebit TTM 39.5m / Interest Expense TTM 5.19m)
FCF Yield = 5.26% (FCF TTM 20.7m / Enterprise Value 394.0m)
FCF Margin = 4.32% (FCF TTM 20.7m / Revenue TTM 479.7m)
Net Margin = 5.15% (Net Income TTM 24.7m / Revenue TTM 479.7m)
Gross Margin = 19.80% ((Revenue TTM 479.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 384.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.15 (Enterprise Value 394.0m / Book Value Of Equity 30.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 1.21m / Debt 91.6m)
Taxrate = 27.22% (from yearly Income Tax Expense: 9.61m / 35.3m)
NOPAT = 28.7m (EBIT 39.5m * (1 - 27.22%))
Current Ratio = 0.35 (Total Current Assets 26.8m / Total Current Liabilities 76.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 91.6m / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 274.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.66 (Net Debt 249.3m / EBITDA 55.3m)
Debt / FCF = 4.42 (Debt 91.6m / FCF TTM 20.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 263.9m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 4.14% (Net Income 24.7m, Total Assets 596.8m )
RoE = 9.37% (Net Income TTM 24.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 263.9m)
RoCE = 11.85% (Ebit 39.5m / (Equity 263.9m + L.T.Debt 69.0m))
RoIC = 8.54% (NOPAT 28.7m / Invested Capital 336.2m)
WACC = 8.47% (E(311.4m)/V(403.0m) * Re(10.68%)) + (D(91.6m)/V(403.0m) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: -90.0 | Cagr: -5.31%
Discount Rate = 10.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.50% ; FCFE base≈22.1m ; Y1≈21.3m ; Y5≈20.9m
Fair Price DCF = 8.21 (DCF Value 246.3m / Shares Outstanding 30.0m; 5y FCF grow -5.10% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 30.39 | Revenue CAGR: 1.78%
Revenue Growth Correlation: 71.62%
EPS Correlation: 51.93 | EPS CAGR: 23.06%
Growth-of-Growth: -19.32
Additional Sources for LOCO Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle