(LOCO) El Pollo Loco Holdings - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 414m USD | Total Return: 38.2% in 12m

Stock Grilled Chicken, Bowls, Burritos, Tacos, Sides
Total Rating 53
Safety 68
Buy Signal 0.29
Restaurants -1.2
Restaurants -2.0
Market Cap: 414m
Avg Trading Vol: 4.06M USD
ATR: 3.53%
Peers RS (IBD): 98.7
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility32.7%
Rel. Tail Risk-8.94%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.84
Alpha13.07
Character TTM
Beta1.030
Beta Downside0.755
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD35.93%
CAGR/Max DD0.44
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of LOCO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.13, "2021-06": 0.29, "2021-09": 0.27, "2021-12": 0.17, "2022-03": 0.07, "2022-06": 0.21, "2022-09": 0.14, "2022-12": 0.16, "2023-03": 0.14, "2023-06": 0.23, "2023-09": 0.19, "2023-12": 0.16, "2024-03": 0.22, "2024-06": 0.26, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": 0.2, "2025-03": 0.19, "2025-06": 0.28, "2025-09": 0.27, "2025-12": 0.25, "2026-03": 0,
EPS CAGR: -47.55%
EPS Trend: 6.8%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of LOCO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 107.721, 2021-06: 121.985, 2021-09: 115.7, 2021-12: 108.957, 2022-03: 110.048, 2022-06: 124.111, 2022-09: 119.878, 2022-12: 115.922, 2023-03: 114.526, 2023-06: 121.492, 2023-09: 120.399, 2023-12: 112.247, 2024-03: 116.153, 2024-06: 122.176, 2024-09: 120.395, 2024-12: 114.284, 2025-03: 119.177, 2025-06: 125.834, 2025-09: 121.52, 2025-12: 123.515, 2026-03: null,
Rev. CAGR: 3.13%
Rev. Trend: 41.3%
Last SUE: 0.82
Qual. Beats: 0
Description: LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) operates and franchises quick-service Mexican-style chicken restaurants across seven U.S. states-California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana-and licenses its brand in the Philippines. The company, founded in 1975 and headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, grew from its original identity as Chicken Acquisition Corp. to its current name in 2014.

As of Q3 2025, El Pollo Loco reported 462 locations, with comparable-store sales increasing 4.2% year-over-year and digital orders now representing roughly 18% of total sales, highlighting the brand’s successful omnichannel push. The firm posted a trailing twelve-month EBITDA margin of 14.6%, up from 13.1% the prior year, driven by menu innovation and cost-control initiatives.

Key drivers for the quick-service restaurant sector remain robust consumer demand for affordable, protein-rich meals and a gradual easing of inflationary pressure, while labor market tightness continues to push operators toward automation and off-premise ordering solutions.

For a deeper dive into LOCO’s valuation metrics, consider exploring ValueRay’s analyst tools.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Franchise expansion drives new restaurant openings and royalty growth
  • Commodity price volatility impacts chicken and avocado costs
  • California minimum wage increases pressure labor expenses
  • Consumer discretionary spending affects quick-service restaurant demand
  • Competition from other fast-casual chains limits market share
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 26.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.49 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -14.87% < 20% (prev -11.79%; Δ -3.08% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 48.1m > Net Income 26.5m
Net Debt (233.3m) to EBITDA (58.4m): 3.99 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.5m) vs 12m ago 0.18% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.64% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 2.84k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 81.77% > 50% (prev 79.90%; Δ 1.87% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.50 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 58.4m / Interest Expense TTM 4.47m)
Altman Z'' 0.07
A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 6.23m - Total Current Liabilities 79.1m) / Total Assets 606.6m
B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 43.6m / Total Assets 606.6m)
C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 42.5m / Avg Total Assets 599.3m)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 43.9m / Total Liabilities 315.6m)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.07 = B
Beneish M -3.16
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 11.2m/9.96m, Revenue 490.0m/473.0m)
GMI: 0.76 (GM 28.64% / 21.88%)
AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.53)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 490.0m / 473.0m)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 26.5m - CFO 48.1m) / TA 606.6m)
Beneish M-Score: -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of LOCO shares? As of April 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.86 with a total of 297,695 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.58%, over one month by +24.91%, over three months by +31.91% and over the past year by +38.21%.
Is LOCO a buy, sell or hold? El Pollo Loco Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefor, it is recommend to hold LOCO.
  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LOCO price?
Wallstreet Target Price 15.1 9.2%
Analysts Target Price 15.1 9.2%
LOCO Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.3444
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 0.8442
P/B = 1.4552
P/EG = 1.16
Revenue TTM = 490.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 42.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 58.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 51.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 239.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 233.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 647.0m USD (413.7m + Debt 239.6m - CCE 6.23m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.50 (Ebit TTM 42.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.47m)
EV/FCF = 25.43x (Enterprise Value 647.0m / FCF TTM 25.4m)
FCF Yield = 3.93% (FCF TTM 25.4m / Enterprise Value 647.0m)
FCF Margin = 5.19% (FCF TTM 25.4m / Revenue TTM 490.0m)
Net Margin = 5.40% (Net Income TTM 26.5m / Revenue TTM 490.0m)
Gross Margin = 28.64% ((Revenue TTM 490.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 349.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.37% (prev 29.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 647.0m / Total Assets 606.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.40% (Interest Expense 965k / Debt 239.6m)
Taxrate = 30.02% (2.81m / 9.35m)
NOPAT = 29.7m (EBIT 42.5m * (1 - 30.02%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 6.23m / Total Current Liabilities 79.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.82 (Debt 239.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 291.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.99 (Net Debt 233.3m / EBITDA 58.4m)
Debt / FCF = 9.17 (Net Debt 233.3m / FCF TTM 25.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 278.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.42% (Net Income 26.5m / Total Assets 606.6m)
RoE = 9.51% (Net Income TTM 26.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 278.5m)
RoCE = 12.89% (EBIT 42.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 278.5m + L.T.Debt 51.0m))
RoIC = 8.69% (NOPAT 29.7m / Invested Capital 342.0m)
WACC = 6.18% (E(413.7m)/V(653.3m) * Re(9.60%) + D(239.6m)/V(653.3m) * Rd(0.40%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -4.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 85.44% ; FCFF base≈26.3m ; Y1≈26.0m ; Y5≈26.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 17.38 (EV 754.1m - Net Debt 233.3m = Equity 520.8m / Shares 30.0m; r=6.18% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -2.13% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 6.82 | EPS CAGR: -47.55% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.30 | Revenue CAGR: 3.13% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg7d=-0.018 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg7d=+0.005 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-1.0% | Growth Revenue=+1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.10 | Chg7d=+0.059 | Chg30d=+0.061 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+13.8% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0.00 (2 Up / 2 Down within 30d for Current Year)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 3.1% (Discount Rate 9.6% - Earnings Yield 6.5%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = -0.8% (Analyst 2.3% - Implied 3.1%)
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