(LOCO) El Pollo Loco Holdings - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 431m USD | Total Return: 44% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 4.04M
EPS Trend: 96.9%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 84.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Altman Z'' 0.43 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
Pead
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. is a quick-service restaurant operator and franchisor specializing in fire-grilled chicken. Headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, the company manages a portfolio of company-owned and franchised locations across the Southwestern United States, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana, with additional brand licensing in the Philippines.
The business model relies on a dual-revenue stream from direct restaurant sales and recurring franchise royalties. Within the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, this hybrid model allows for geographic expansion while mitigating capital expenditure risks associated with property development. For deeper insights into the companys financial health, investors should evaluate the data on ValueRay.
Founded in 1975 and rebranded in 2014, the company competes in the highly fragmented fast-casual and QSR segments. These industries are characterized by high sensitivity to commodity costs, particularly poultry prices, and labor market fluctuations in the Western United States.
- California minimum wage increases pressure operating margins and store profitability
- Strategic franchise expansion in Western markets fuels long-term revenue growth
- Fluctuating chicken procurement costs impact cost of goods sold and margins
- Digital sales and loyalty program adoption drive higher average check sizes
- Geographic concentration in California exposes the company to regional economic shifts
| Net Income: 29.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.00% < 20% (prev -10.71%; Δ 0.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 56.3m > Net Income 29.2m |
| Net Debt (418.0m) to EBITDA (61.9m): 6.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.34 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.7m) vs 12m ago 1.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.99% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2.48k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.87% > 50% (prev 80.62%; Δ 2.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.30 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 61.9m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 25.9m - Total Current Liabilities 75.6m) / Total Assets 609.1m |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 51.7m / Total Assets 609.1m) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 45.5m / Avg Total Assets 599.8m) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 52.0m / Total Liabilities 306.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.43 = B |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 13.7m/12.5m, Revenue 497.1m/476.0m) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 24.99% / 21.46%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.53) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 497.1m / 476.0m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 29.2m - CFO 56.3m) / TA 609.1m) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.14 with a total of 330,093 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.69%,
over one month by +1.66%,
over three months by +31.62% and
over the past year by +44.01%.
El Pollo Loco Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold LOCO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 17.9 | 26.4% |
P/E Forward = 14.0252
P/S = 0.8664
P/B = 1.4236
P/EG = 1.16
Revenue TTM = 497.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 45.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 16.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 421.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 189.0m
Net Debt = 418.0m USD (calculated: Debt 421.9m - CCE 3.90m)
Enterprise Value = 848.7m USD (430.6m + Debt 421.9m - CCE 3.90m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.30 (Ebit TTM 45.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m)
EV/FCF = 31.60x (Enterprise Value 848.7m / FCF TTM 26.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.16% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Enterprise Value 848.7m)
FCF Margin = 5.40% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Revenue TTM 497.1m)
Net Margin = 5.87% (Net Income TTM 29.2m / Revenue TTM 497.1m)
Gross Margin = 24.99% ((Revenue TTM 497.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 372.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.78% (prev 22.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 848.7m / Total Assets 609.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.95% (Interest Expense 4.03m / Debt 421.9m)
Taxrate = 28.98% (3.33m / 11.5m)
NOPAT = 32.3m (EBIT 45.5m * (1 - 28.98%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 25.9m / Total Current Liabilities 75.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.39 (Debt 421.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 302.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.76 (Net Debt 418.0m / EBITDA 61.9m)
Debt / FCF = 15.57 (Net Debt 418.0m / FCF TTM 26.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 287.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.86% (Net Income 29.2m / Total Assets 609.1m)
RoE = 10.14% (Net Income TTM 29.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 287.7m)
RoCE = 13.72% (EBIT 45.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 287.7m + L.T.Debt 44.0m))
RoIC = 5.92% (NOPAT 32.3m / Invested Capital 546.1m)
WACC = 4.53% (E(430.6m)/V(852.6m) * Re(8.30%) + D(421.9m)/V(852.6m) * Rd(0.95%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -37.78 | Cagr: -3.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈24.9m ; Y1≈28.6m ; Y5≈42.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.06 (EV 633.0m - Net Debt 418.0m = Equity 214.9m / Shares 30.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.90 | EPS CAGR: 16.00% | SUE: 3.25 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 84.46 | Revenue CAGR: 1.72% | SUE: 3.33 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=-9.85% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=-0.8% | GrowthRev=+2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-1.81% | Revisions=-14% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%