(LOPE) Grand Canyon Education - Ratings and Ratios
Technology Services, Academic Services, Counseling, Marketing, Back-Office
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.41% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.17 |
| Alpha | -9.92 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.54 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.795 |
| Beta | 0.585 |
| Beta Downside | 0.912 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.62% |
| Mean DD | 6.79% |
| Median DD | 5.85% |
Description: LOPE Grand Canyon Education November 05, 2025
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is a U.S.-based education-services firm that partners with 22 universities to deliver a full suite of non-instructional support functions. Its offerings span technology platforms (learning management, infrastructure, and admin tools), academic services (curriculum design, faculty development, scheduling, and simulation labs), student-facing counseling (admissions, financial-aid guidance, field-experience placement), marketing and communications (lead generation, digital strategy, brand, analytics), and back-office operations (finance, HR, audit, procurement). The company, originally founded in 1949 as Significant Education, rebranded to Grand Canyon Education in 2005 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Key recent metrics indicate a revenue base of roughly $1.2 billion in FY 2023, with an adjusted operating margin near 15 % and a cash-flow conversion rate of about 85 %, reflecting the high-margin, recurring-revenue nature of its service contracts. Enrollment trends in the for-profit higher-education segment have been volatile; LOPE’s growth is therefore closely tied to macro drivers such as federal student-aid policy, state-level tuition-reimbursement caps, and the broader shift toward hybrid/online learning models that increase demand for scalable technology and support services.
For a deeper dive into LOPE’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might find ValueRay’s platform useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (211.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 65.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 27.26% (prev 28.16%; Δ -0.90pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.27 (>3.0%) and CFO 278.8m > Net Income 211.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (13.2m) to EBITDA (311.2m) ratio: 0.04 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.17 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (27.9m) change vs 12m ago -4.34% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.83% (prev 52.66%; Δ 0.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 107.7% (prev 102.6%; Δ 5.07pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 68.0k (EBITDA TTM 311.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4000 ) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 21.84
| (A) 0.29 = (Total Current Assets 434.0m - Total Current Liabilities 136.7m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| (B) 2.52 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.60b / Total Assets 1.03b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 2.52 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.27 = EBIT TTM 272.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.01b |
| (D) 9.47 = Book Value of Equity 2.60b / Total Liabilities 274.8m |
| Total Rating: 21.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 84.83
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.17% |
| 3. FCF Margin 22.16% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.15 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.04 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 18.39)% |
| 7. RoE 27.26% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 47.13% |
| 9. EPS Trend 28.11% |
What is the price of LOPE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.78%, over one month by +8.33%, over three months by -20.91% and over the past year by +4.47%.
Is LOPE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LOPE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 222.7 | 32.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 222.7 | 32.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 174.1 | 3.5% |
LOPE Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.2671
P/E Forward = 16.3666
P/S = 4.2726
P/B = 6.0992
P/EG = 1.0912
Beta = 0.776
Revenue TTM = 1.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 272.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 311.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 110.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 110.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.67b USD (4.66b + Debt 110.5m - CCE 97.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 68.0k (Ebit TTM 272.0m / Interest Expense TTM 4000 )
FCF Yield = 5.17% (FCF TTM 241.7m / Enterprise Value 4.67b)
FCF Margin = 22.16% (FCF TTM 241.7m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Net Margin = 19.38% (Net Income TTM 211.3m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Gross Margin = 52.83% ((Revenue TTM 1.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 514.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.68% (prev 49.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.52 (Enterprise Value 4.67b / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 4000 / Debt 110.5m)
Taxrate = 24.85% (5.38m / 21.7m)
NOPAT = 204.4m (EBIT 272.0m * (1 - 24.85%))
Current Ratio = 3.17 (Total Current Assets 434.0m / Total Current Liabilities 136.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 110.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 758.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.04 (Net Debt 13.2m / EBITDA 311.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.05 (Net Debt 13.2m / FCF TTM 241.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 775.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.46% (Net Income 211.3m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 27.26% (Net Income TTM 211.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 775.1m)
RoCE = 30.71% (EBIT 272.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 775.1m + L.T.Debt 110.5m))
RoIC = 26.37% (NOPAT 204.4m / Invested Capital 775.1m)
WACC = 7.98% (E(4.66b)/V(4.77b) * Re(8.17%) + D(110.5m)/V(4.77b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.18%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.75% ; FCFE base≈238.0m ; Y1≈253.4m ; Y5≈304.6m
Fair Price DCF = 186.1 (DCF Value 5.20b / Shares Outstanding 28.0m; 5y FCF grow 7.16% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 28.11 | EPS CAGR: -4.43% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.13 | Revenue CAGR: 1.02% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.75 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.93 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+9.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.8%
Additional Sources for LOPE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle