(LOPE) Grand Canyon Education - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Education & Training Services | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 4.155m USD | Total Return: -23.3% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 39.1M
EPS Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) is a Phoenix-based education services provider that transitioned from a traditional university model to an Educational Services Provider (ESP). The company delivers a comprehensive suite of outsourced solutions to 20 university partners, including technology infrastructure, academic curriculum development, and faculty training. Its operational scope extends to student-facing functions such as admissions counseling, financial aid processing, and marketing analytics, alongside back-office administrative support.
The ESP business model allows higher education institutions to scale online and hybrid programs without the capital-intensive requirements of building internal digital infrastructure. This sector is characterized by long-term service contracts that generate recurring revenue streams based on student enrollment and retention. Investors may find ValueRay useful for deeper fundamental analysis of these service agreements. Founded in 1949 and formerly known as Significant Education, Inc., the company maintains a specialized focus on healthcare and nursing simulation labs to support its clinical partner programs.
- Enrollment growth across partner universities drives core educational service fee revenue
- Expansion of healthcare and nursing simulation sites scales capital-intensive revenue streams
- Federal regulatory scrutiny of service provider agreements impacts valuation and compliance costs
- Hybrid learning technology adoption rates influence long-term operating margin expansion
- Department of Education oversight of student financial aid eligibility poses systemic risk
| Net Income: 219.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.27 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.46% < 20% (prev 29.42%; Δ -7.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.30 > 3% & CFO 294.1m > Net Income 219.9m |
| Net Debt (-147.5m) to EBITDA (354.8m): -0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.9m) vs 12m ago -5.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.26% > 18% (prev 0.53%; Δ 5.27k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 112.6% > 50% (prev 101.6%; Δ 11.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 354.8m / Interest Expense TTM 27.1m) |
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 380.0m - Total Current Liabilities 138.4m) / Total Assets 967.9m |
| B: 2.85 (Retained Earnings 2.76b / Total Assets 967.9m) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 314.0m / Avg Total Assets 999.7m) |
| D: 10.17 (Book Value of Equity 2.76b / Total Liabilities 271.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 23.73 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 113.3m/115.7m, Revenue 1.13b/1.05b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 53.26% / 52.75%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.13b / 1.05b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 219.9m - CFO 294.1m) / TA 967.9m) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 149.85 with a total of 272,111 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.43%,
over one month by -11.47%,
over three months by -5.80% and
over the past year by -23.30%.
Grand Canyon Education has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LOPE.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 214 | 42.8% |
P/E Trailing = 19.612
P/E Forward = 15.3374
P/S = 3.6914
P/B = 5.9694
P/EG = 1.0224
Revenue TTM = 1.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 314.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 354.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 89.1m USD (estimated: total debt 104.2m - short term 15.1m)
Short Term Debt = 15.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 104.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 104.2m already included)
Net Debt = -147.5m USD (calculated: Debt 104.2m - CCE 251.7m)
Enterprise Value = 4.01b USD (4.15b + Debt 104.2m - CCE 251.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.61 (Ebit TTM 314.0m / Interest Expense TTM 27.1m)
EV/FCF = 15.41x (Enterprise Value 4.01b / FCF TTM 260.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.49% (FCF TTM 260.1m / Enterprise Value 4.01b)
FCF Margin = 23.11% (FCF TTM 260.1m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Net Margin = 19.54% (Net Income TTM 219.9m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Gross Margin = 53.26% ((Revenue TTM 1.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 526.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.67% (prev 56.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.14 (Enterprise Value 4.01b / Total Assets 967.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 25.97% (Interest Expense 27.1m / Debt 104.2m)
Taxrate = 23.49% (23.1m / 98.5m)
NOPAT = 240.2m (EBIT 314.0m * (1 - 23.49%))
Current Ratio = 2.75 (Total Current Assets 380.0m / Total Current Liabilities 138.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 104.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 696.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.42 (Net Debt -147.5m / EBITDA 354.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.57 (Net Debt -147.5m / FCF TTM 260.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 744.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.00% (Net Income 219.9m / Total Assets 967.9m)
RoE = 29.53% (Net Income TTM 219.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 744.8m)
RoCE = 37.65% (EBIT 314.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 744.8m + L.T.Debt 89.1m))
RoIC = 28.45% (NOPAT 240.2m / Invested Capital 844.5m)
WACC = 7.64% (E(4.15b)/V(4.26b) * Re(7.33%) + D(104.2m)/V(4.26b) * Rd(25.97%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -4.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.72% ; FCFF base≈250.1m ; Y1≈273.0m ; Y5≈341.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 202.7 (EV 5.23b - Net Debt -147.5m = Equity 5.37b / Shares 26.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.54% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.27 | EPS CAGR: 14.40% | SUE: 1.14 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.85 | Revenue CAGR: 7.25% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.69 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+0.27% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.21 | Chg30d=+1.19% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+12.4% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.36 | Chg30d=+1.11% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+11.2% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20%