(LOPE) Grand Canyon Education - Overview
Stock: Technology, Academic, Counseling, Marketing, Support
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.26% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.19 |
| Alpha | -17.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.603 |
| Beta Downside | 0.871 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.46 |
Description: LOPE Grand Canyon Education January 08, 2026
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is an education-services firm that partners with 22 U.S. universities to outsource a broad suite of non-instructional functions. Its offerings span technology (learning-management systems, infrastructure, and support), academic services (curriculum design, faculty development, scheduling, and simulation labs), student-support services (admissions, financial-aid counseling, and field-experience placement), marketing and communications (lead generation, digital strategy, brand management, and data analytics), and back-office operations (finance, HR, audit, and procurement).
Founded in 1949 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, the company rebranded from Significant Education in 2005. It generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts with partner institutions, which provide recurring fee streams tied to enrollment volumes and service scope.
Recent performance indicators (FY 2023) show total revenue of approximately $1.1 billion, a 5 % year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 21 %. Cash flow from operations exceeded $200 million, supporting a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 2.2×, indicating moderate leverage.
Key economic and sector drivers include: (1) the U.S. demographic trend of a growing adult-learner population, which expands the addressable market for non-credit and career-oriented programs; (2) the regulatory environment around federal student-aid funding, where changes to loan eligibility or repayment policies can materially affect partner enrollment and, by extension, LOPE’s fee base; and (3) competitive pressure from in-house university services and emerging fintech platforms that aim to internalize many of the outsourced functions LOPE provides.
Given the company’s reliance on enrollment-linked contracts, a sensitivity analysis of enrollment forecasts versus fee revenue would be a prudent next step for any valuation.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may want to explore the companys metrics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 211.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.26% < 20% (prev 28.16%; Δ -0.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.27 > 3% & CFO 278.8m > Net Income 211.3m |
| Net Debt (13.2m) to EBITDA (311.2m): 0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.9m) vs 12m ago -4.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.83% > 18% (prev 0.53%; Δ 5230 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 107.7% > 50% (prev 102.6%; Δ 5.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 68.0k > 6 (EBITDA TTM 311.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4000 ) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 434.0m - Total Current Liabilities 136.7m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| B: 2.52 (Retained Earnings 2.60b / Total Assets 1.03b) |
| C: 0.27 (EBIT TTM 272.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.01b) |
| D: 9.47 (Book Value of Equity 2.60b / Total Liabilities 274.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 21.84 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.10
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 122.0m/116.4m, Revenue 1.09b/1.02b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 52.83% / 52.66%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.09b / 1.02b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 211.3m - CFO 278.8m) / TA 1.03b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of LOPE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.37%, over one month by -0.73%, over three months by +1.60% and over the past year by -6.53%.
Is LOPE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LOPE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 222.7 | 31.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 222.7 | 31.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 187.3 | 10.4% |
LOPE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.2117
P/S = 4.4774
P/B = 6.414
P/EG = 1.1475
Revenue TTM = 1.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 272.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 311.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 110.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 110.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.90b USD (4.88b + Debt 110.5m - CCE 97.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 68.0k (Ebit TTM 272.0m / Interest Expense TTM 4000 )
EV/FCF = 20.26x (Enterprise Value 4.90b / FCF TTM 241.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.94% (FCF TTM 241.7m / Enterprise Value 4.90b)
FCF Margin = 22.16% (FCF TTM 241.7m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Net Margin = 19.38% (Net Income TTM 211.3m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Gross Margin = 52.83% ((Revenue TTM 1.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 514.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.68% (prev 49.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.74 (Enterprise Value 4.90b / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 4000 / Debt 110.5m)
Taxrate = 24.85% (5.38m / 21.7m)
NOPAT = 204.4m (EBIT 272.0m * (1 - 24.85%))
Current Ratio = 3.17 (Total Current Assets 434.0m / Total Current Liabilities 136.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 110.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 758.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.04 (Net Debt 13.2m / EBITDA 311.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.05 (Net Debt 13.2m / FCF TTM 241.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 775.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.86% (Net Income 211.3m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 27.26% (Net Income TTM 211.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 775.1m)
RoCE = 30.71% (EBIT 272.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 775.1m + L.T.Debt 110.5m))
RoIC = 26.37% (NOPAT 204.4m / Invested Capital 775.1m)
WACC = 7.96% (E(4.88b)/V(4.99b) * Re(8.14%) + D(110.5m)/V(4.99b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.18%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.13% ; FCFF base≈238.0m ; Y1≈253.4m ; Y5≈303.9m
Fair Price DCF = 189.9 (EV 5.33b - Net Debt 13.2m = Equity 5.31b / Shares 28.0m; r=7.96% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.16% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -6.94 | EPS CAGR: -48.16% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.13 | Revenue CAGR: 1.02% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.75 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.93 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+9.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.8%