LOPE Stock Analysis: Grand Canyon Education | NASDAQ
Education & Training Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.951m USD | 12M Return: -24% | US38526M1062 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.2M
EPS Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) is a U.S.-based education services company that provides outsourced support to universities rather than operating as a traditional degree-granting institution. Its offerings span technology infrastructure (including learning management systems and administrative platforms), academic services (curriculum, faculty support, scheduling, and simulation labs), student-facing services (admissions, financial aid, and counseling), marketing and communications, and back-office functions such as finance, HR, and procurement.
The company serves 20 university partners under a services-based business model commonly associated with the Online Program Management (OPM) segment of the education services industry. Founded in 1949 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, the firm was renamed Grand Canyon Education in August 2005 and has been publicly traded on NASDAQ since its 2008 IPO. It is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Education Services sub-industry.
- Ground Phoenix University enrollment growth drives service revenue
- Regulatory scrutiny on for-profit and online education pressures margins
- Capital allocation through buybacks and dividends supports shareholder returns
| Net Income: 224.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.72% < 20% (prev 28.43%; Δ -9.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.30 > 3% & CFO 278.7m > Net Income 224.2m |
| Net Debt (-170.3m) to EBITDA (328.7m): -0.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.2m) vs 12m ago -6.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.27% > 18% (prev 52.97%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 117.7% > 50% (prev 104.6%; Δ 13.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 331.5m - Total Current Liabilities 117.6m) / Total Assets 919.2m |
| B: 3.06 (Retained Earnings 2.81b / Total Assets 919.2m) |
| C: 0.30 (EBIT TTM 287.0m / Avg Total Assets 970.1m) |
| D: 2.68 (Book Value of Equity 669.5m / Total Liabilities 249.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 16.29 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 42.1m/34.4m, Revenue 1.14b/1.07b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 52.97% / 53.27%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.14b / 1.07b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 224.2m - CFO 278.7m) / TA 919.2m) |
| Beneish M = -2.82 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 160.30 with a total of 321,524 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.29%, over one month by +5.79%, over three months by +6.38% and over the past year by -24.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 154.40 (which is 3.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Grand Canyon Education has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LOPE.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 195 | 21.6% |
P/E Trailing = 18.308
P/E Forward = 13.2979
P/S = 3.4597
P/B = 5.8759
P/EG = 0.8865
Revenue TTM = 1.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 287.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 328.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 88.9m USD (estimated: total debt 104.2m - short term 15.3m)
Short Term Debt = 15.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 104.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 104.2m already included)
Net Debt = -170.3m USD (calculated: Debt 104.2m - CCE 274.5m)
Enterprise Value = 3.78b USD (3.95b + Debt 104.2m - CCE 274.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 287.0m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 15.59x (Enterprise Value 3.78b / FCF TTM 242.5m)
FCF Yield = 6.41% (FCF TTM 242.5m / Enterprise Value 3.78b)
FCF Margin = 21.23% (FCF TTM 242.5m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Net Margin = 19.63% (Net Income TTM 224.2m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Gross Margin = 53.27% ((Revenue TTM 1.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 533.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.36% (prev 55.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.11 (Enterprise Value 3.78b / Total Assets 919.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 104.2m)
Taxrate = 23.42% (68.6m / 292.8m)
NOPAT = 219.8m (EBIT 287.0m * (1 - 23.42%))
Current Ratio = 2.82 (Total Current Assets 331.5m / Total Current Liabilities 117.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 104.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 669.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.52 (Net Debt -170.3m / EBITDA 328.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.70 (Net Debt -170.3m / FCF TTM 242.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 717.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.11% (Net Income 224.2m / Total Assets 919.2m)
RoE = 31.24% (Net Income TTM 224.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 717.7m)
RoCE = 35.59% (EBIT 287.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 717.7m + L.T.Debt 88.9m))
RoIC = 28.93% (NOPAT 219.8m / Invested Capital 759.8m)
WACC = 5.77% (E(3.95b)/V(4.06b) * Re(5.92%) + D(104.2m)/V(4.06b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 5.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.40 | Cagr: -5.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.40% ; FCFF base≈250.0m ; Y1≈235.9m ; Y5≈220.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 140.0 (EV 3.48b - Net Debt -170.3m = Equity 3.65b / Shares 26.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -7.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.44 | EPS CAGR: 13.67% | SUE: 1.82 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.84 | Revenue CAGR: 7.15% | SUE: 0.91 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.21 | Chg30d=-0.13% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.31 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)