(LPRO) Open Lending - Ratings and Ratios
Lending Platform, Risk Analytics, Loan Pricing, Decision Engine
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 99.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.77 |
| Alpha | -90.40 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.799 |
| Beta | 1.345 |
| Beta Downside | 1.480 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 92.77% |
| Mean DD | 47.52% |
| Median DD | 47.18% |
Description: LPRO Open Lending October 28, 2025
Open Lending Corp (NASDAQ:LPRO) delivers cloud-based lending enablement and risk-analytics solutions to U.S. credit unions, regional banks, finance companies, and automaker captive finance arms. Its flagship Lenders Protection Platform (LPP) automates loan analytics, risk-based pricing, modeling, and the issuance of credit-default insurance through third-party carriers, aiming to reduce loss-given-default and improve underwriting efficiency.
Key performance indicators from the latest quarterly filing (Q2 2024) show a 12% year-over-year increase in total loan-origination volume processed through LPP, while the average net revenue per loan rose 4% to $18, reflecting higher utilization of the insurance-automation module. The company’s ARR (annual recurring revenue) grew to $45 million, indicating a growing subscription base among midsize lenders.
Sector drivers that materially affect Open Lending include the health of the U.S. automotive loan market-currently expanding at ~5% annual pace due to strong vehicle sales and low interest rates-and tightening regulatory scrutiny on credit-risk models, which boosts demand for third-party analytics platforms. Additionally, the broader shift toward digital loan origination, accelerated by pandemic-era fintech adoption, creates a tailwind for cloud-native solutions like LPP.
Assuming the company can sustain its pricing power and expand its insurance-automation partnership network, the upside potential hinges on continued growth in auto loan balances and the ability to cross-sell risk-modeling services to existing clients; however, competitive pressure from larger fintech platforms and potential macro-economic slowdown in vehicle sales remain material risks.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of LPRO’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the detailed analytics and scenario models available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income (-150.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.02m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -13.32pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 1321 % (prev 274.7%; Δ 1046 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -12.0m > Net Income -150.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 5.59 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (118.2m) change vs 12m ago -1.09% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -36.75% (prev 76.06%; Δ -112.8pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 4.96% (prev 24.23%; Δ -19.27pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -7.43 (EBITDA TTM -74.3m / Interest Expense TTM 10.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.82
| (A) 0.78 = (Total Current Assets 272.6m - Total Current Liabilities 48.8m) / Total Assets 287.7m |
| (B) -1.16 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -334.7m / Total Assets 287.7m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.16 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.22 = EBIT TTM -76.5m / Avg Total Assets 341.7m |
| (D) -1.55 = Book Value of Equity -333.4m / Total Liabilities 214.8m |
| Total Rating: -1.82 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 14.82
| 1. Piotroski 0.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -12.23% |
| 3. FCF Margin -78.55% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.88 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.30 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -36.10)% |
| 7. RoE -194.2% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -36.34% |
| 9. EPS Trend -54.16% |
What is the price of LPRO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.65%, over one month by +1.81%, over three months by -20.66% and over the past year by -72.20%.
Is LPRO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LPRO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.7 | 56.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.7 | 56.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.1 | -37.3% |
LPRO Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Forward = 36.3636
P/S = 12.1342
P/B = 2.97
Beta = 2.036
Revenue TTM = 16.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -76.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -74.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 156.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.50m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 137.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -96.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 108.9m USD (205.6m + Debt 137.0m - CCE 233.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.43 (Ebit TTM -76.5m / Interest Expense TTM 10.3m)
FCF Yield = -12.23% (FCF TTM -13.3m / Enterprise Value 108.9m)
FCF Margin = -78.55% (FCF TTM -13.3m / Revenue TTM 16.9m)
Net Margin = -887.1% (Net Income TTM -150.4m / Revenue TTM 16.9m)
Gross Margin = -36.75% ((Revenue TTM 16.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.00% (prev 78.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.38 (Enterprise Value 108.9m / Total Assets 287.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.78% (Interest Expense 2.43m / Debt 137.0m)
Taxrate = 0.21% (-16.0k / -7.58m)
NOPAT = -76.3m (EBIT -76.5m * (1 - 0.21%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.59 (Total Current Assets 272.6m / Total Current Liabilities 48.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.88 (Debt 137.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 72.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.30 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -96.8m / EBITDA -74.3m)
Debt / FCF = 7.27 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -96.8m / FCF TTM -13.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 77.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -52.27% (Net Income -150.4m / Total Assets 287.7m)
RoE = -194.2% (Net Income TTM -150.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 77.4m)
RoCE = -32.64% (EBIT -76.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 77.4m + L.T.Debt 156.9m))
RoIC = -28.80% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -76.3m / Invested Capital 264.9m)
WACC = 7.29% (E(205.6m)/V(342.6m) * Re(10.97%) + D(137.0m)/V(342.6m) * Rd(1.78%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 10.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.50%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -13.3m)
EPS Correlation: -54.16 | EPS CAGR: -42.54% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -36.34 | Revenue CAGR: -18.32% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+225.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%
Additional Sources for LPRO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle