MAR Stock Analysis: Marriott International | NASDAQ
Lodging | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 99.492m USD | 12M Return: 36.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 604M
EPS Trend: 57.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) is a global lodging company that operates, franchises, and licenses hotels, residences, timeshares, and other lodging properties across the U.S. & Canada, Europe, the Middle East & Africa, Greater China, Asia Pacific, and other international markets. Its portfolio spans more than 30 brands, ranging from luxury flagships such as The Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, JW Marriott, and Bvlgari, through premium full-service names like Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, and Westin, to select-service and lifestyle brands including Courtyard, Fairfield, Aloft, Moxy, and Residence Inn. Beyond traditional hotels, the company also runs branded residences, timeshares, and yachts. Founded in 1927 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, Marriott operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry) and is recognized for an asset-light business model that emphasizes franchising and management contracts over direct real estate ownership, allowing it to scale globally while limiting capital expenditure on property.
- RevPAR growth in Greater China accelerates post-pandemic recovery
- Asset-light franchise model expands margins with Bonvoy loyalty driving direct bookings
- Luxury brand portfolio captures premium pricing as US travel demand stays resilient
| Net Income: 2.58b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -17.32% < 20% (prev -17.88%; Δ 0.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 3.42b > Net Income 2.58b |
| Net Debt (17.8b) to EBITDA (4.76b): 3.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (269.4m) vs 12m ago -2.99% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.38% > 18% (prev 20.31%; Δ 1.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 97.52% > 50% (prev 95.25%; Δ 2.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.32b / Interest Expense TTM 831.0m) |
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 3.91b - Total Current Liabilities 8.52b) / Total Assets 27.9b |
| B: 0.68 (Retained Earnings 18.9b / Total Assets 27.9b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 4.32b / Avg Total Assets 27.3b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -4.09b / Total Liabilities 31.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.06 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 3.09b/2.90b, Revenue 26.6b/25.4b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 20.31% / 21.38%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.79 / AQ_t-1 0.76) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 26.6b / 25.4b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.58b - CFO 3.42b) / TA 27.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 370.59 with a total of 1,837,125 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.20%, over one month by -1.69%, over three months by +13.53% and over the past year by +36.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 358.00 (which is 3.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Marriott International has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.59. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MAR.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 380.8 | 2.8% |
P/E Trailing = 39.6751
P/E Forward = 32.6797
P/S = 13.8492
P/B = 443.6338
P/EG = 2.2414
Revenue TTM = 26.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.32b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.21b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 876.0m
Net Debt = 17.8b USD (calculated: Debt 18.3b - CCE 454.0m)
Enterprise Value = 117b USD (99.5b + Debt 18.3b - CCE 454.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.20 (Ebit TTM 4.32b / Interest Expense TTM 831.0m)
EV/FCF = 37.68x (Enterprise Value 117b / FCF TTM 3.11b)
FCF Yield = 2.65% (FCF TTM 3.11b / Enterprise Value 117b)
FCF Margin = 11.72% (FCF TTM 3.11b / Revenue TTM 26.6b)
Net Margin = 9.72% (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Revenue TTM 26.6b)
Gross Margin = 21.38% ((Revenue TTM 26.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 20.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.15% (prev 16.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.21 (Enterprise Value 117b / Total Assets 27.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.55% (Interest Expense 831.0m / Debt 18.3b)
Taxrate = 25.92% (904.0m / 3.49b)
NOPAT = 3.20b (EBIT 4.32b * (1 - 25.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.46 (Total Current Assets 3.91b / Total Current Liabilities 8.52b)
Debt / Equity = -4.47 (negative equity) (Debt 18.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -4.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.74 (Net Debt 17.8b / EBITDA 4.76b)
Debt / FCF = 5.73 (Net Debt 17.8b / FCF TTM 3.11b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -3.49b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.48% (Net Income 2.58b / Total Assets 27.9b)
RoE = -74.11% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Total Stockholder Equity -3.49b)
RoCE = 36.50% (EBIT 4.32b / Capital Employed (Equity -3.49b + L.T.Debt 15.3b))
RoIC = 15.92% (NOPAT 3.20b / Invested Capital 20.1b)
WACC = 8.23% (E(99.5b)/V(118b) * Re(9.12%) + D(18.3b)/V(118b) * Rd(4.55%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.11 | Cagr: -5.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.60b ; Y1≈2.99b ; Y5≈4.39b
[DCF] Fair Price = 183.2 (EV 66.1b - Net Debt 17.8b = Equity 48.3b / Shares 263.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 57.65 | EPS CAGR: 5.50% | SUE: 3.21 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.59 | Revenue CAGR: 5.25% | SUE: 1.55 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.87 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=-68% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.60 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=+15.8% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.09 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+4% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -68%