(MAT) Mattel - Overview
Stock: Dolls, Vehicles, Infant Toys, Action Figures, Games
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.12 |
| Alpha | -14.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.156 |
| Beta Downside | 1.354 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.81% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.16 |
Description: MAT Mattel January 08, 2026
Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) is a global toy and family-entertainment company that designs, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of branded products-including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and licensed lines such as Disney, Minecraft, and Star Wars-through three operating segments: North America, International, and American Girl. The firm reaches consumers via direct-to-consumer channels (catalog, e-commerce, proprietary stores), traditional retail partners, and wholesale distributors, and has recently begun integrating AI-powered features into its product lines.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue was approximately $5.5 billion, with a 5 % year-over-year increase driven largely by a 12 % rise in direct-to-consumer sales; operating margin improved to 9.8 % as cost-saving initiatives offset higher raw-material prices; and licensing revenue now represents roughly 18 % of total sales, underscoring the importance of brand partnerships. Core economic drivers include US consumer-discretionary spending trends, inflation-sensitive price elasticity for non-essential goods, and demographic shifts that favor nostalgic and collector-oriented products.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of MAT’s valuation metrics, see the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 432.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.59% < 20% (prev 35.15%; Δ -12.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 658.9m > Net Income 432.3m |
| Net Debt (1.98b) to EBITDA (832.1m): 2.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.60 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (322.3m) vs 12m ago -5.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.32% > 18% (prev 0.50%; Δ 4982 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 79.77% > 50% (prev 82.19%; Δ -2.43% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.21 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 832.1m / Interest Expense TTM 117.3m) |
Altman Z'' 4.56
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 3.16b - Total Current Liabilities 1.97b) / Total Assets 6.59b |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 3.90b / Total Assets 6.59b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 611.4m / Avg Total Assets 6.55b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 3.41b / Total Liabilities 4.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.56 = AA |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 1.39b/1.48b, Revenue 5.23b/5.35b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 50.32% / 50.22%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.39 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 5.23b / 5.35b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 432.3m - CFO 658.9m) / TA 6.59b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MAT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.87%, over one month by +1.03%, over three months by +15.10% and over the past year by +0.28%.
Is MAT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MAT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 24.1 | 12.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 24.1 | 12.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.7 | 5.8% |
MAT Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.4224
P/S = 1.306
P/B = 2.8715
P/EG = 2.4611
Revenue TTM = 5.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 611.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 832.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.74b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 681.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.98b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.81b USD (6.83b + Debt 2.67b - CCE 691.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.21 (Ebit TTM 611.4m / Interest Expense TTM 117.3m)
EV/FCF = 18.04x (Enterprise Value 8.81b / FCF TTM 488.3m)
FCF Yield = 5.54% (FCF TTM 488.3m / Enterprise Value 8.81b)
FCF Margin = 9.34% (FCF TTM 488.3m / Revenue TTM 5.23b)
Net Margin = 8.27% (Net Income TTM 432.3m / Revenue TTM 5.23b)
Gross Margin = 50.32% ((Revenue TTM 5.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.60b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.01% (prev 50.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.34 (Enterprise Value 8.81b / Total Assets 6.59b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 29.4m / Debt 2.67b)
Taxrate = 23.78% (86.9m / 365.2m)
NOPAT = 466.0m (EBIT 611.4m * (1 - 23.78%))
Current Ratio = 1.60 (Total Current Assets 3.16b / Total Current Liabilities 1.97b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 2.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.38 (Net Debt 1.98b / EBITDA 832.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.06 (Net Debt 1.98b / FCF TTM 488.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.60% (Net Income 432.3m / Total Assets 6.59b)
RoE = 19.59% (Net Income TTM 432.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.21b)
RoCE = 15.50% (EBIT 611.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.21b + L.T.Debt 1.74b))
RoIC = 10.26% (NOPAT 466.0m / Invested Capital 4.54b)
WACC = 7.54% (E(6.83b)/V(9.50b) * Re(10.17%) + D(2.67b)/V(9.50b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.53% ; FCFF base≈568.2m ; Y1≈649.5m ; Y5≈898.6m
Fair Price DCF = 48.26 (EV 16.98b - Net Debt 1.98b = Equity 15.00b / Shares 310.8m; r=7.54% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 16.73% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 8.92 | EPS CAGR: -6.93% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -8.10 | Revenue CAGR: -0.89% | SUE: -2.53 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+11.7% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%