(MAT) Mattel - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Leisure | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 4.385m USD | Total Return: -23% in 12m

Dolls, Toy Vehicles, Preschool Toys, Games, Action Figures
Total Rating 44
Safety 82
Buy Signal -0.43
Leisure
Industry Rotation: +3.6
Market Cap: 4.38B
Avg Turnover: 62.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.0%
VaR 5th Pctl4.98%
VaR vs Median-2.80%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Rel. Str. IBD9.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group2.6
Character TTM
Beta0.978
Beta Downside1.017
Hurst Exponent0.390
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD36.56%
CAGR/Max DD-0.17
CAGR/Mean DD-0.40
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MAT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -0.1, "2021-06": 0.03, "2021-09": 0.84, "2021-12": 0.53, "2022-03": 0.08, "2022-06": 0.18, "2022-09": 0.82, "2022-12": 0.18, "2023-03": -0.24, "2023-06": 0.1, "2023-09": 1.08, "2023-12": 0.29, "2024-03": -0.05, "2024-06": 0.19, "2024-09": 1.14, "2024-12": 0.35, "2025-03": -0.03, "2025-06": 0.19, "2025-09": 0.89, "2025-12": 0.39, "2026-03": -0.2,
EPS CAGR: 12.64%
EPS Trend: 55.8%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MAT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 874.192, 2021-06: 1026.366, 2021-09: 1762.293, 2021-12: 1794.89, 2022-03: 1041.301, 2022-06: 1235.687, 2022-09: 1755.78, 2022-12: 1401.92, 2023-03: 814.579, 2023-06: 1087.164, 2023-09: 1918.788, 2023-12: 1620.688, 2024-03: 809.508, 2024-06: 1079.728, 2024-09: 1843.904, 2024-12: 1646.405, 2025-03: 826.629, 2025-06: 1018.562, 2025-09: 1736.009, 2025-12: 1766.5, 2026-03: 862.171,
Rev. CAGR: 0.71%
Rev. Trend: 30.0%
Last SUE: 1.21
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: MAT Mattel

Mattel, Inc. is a global designer and manufacturer of toys and family entertainment products, operating across major international markets including North America, Europe, and Asia. The company’s portfolio is organized into core categories: dolls (Barbie, American Girl), vehicles (Hot Wheels, Matchbox), and infant/preschool products (Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends). Beyond physical toys, Mattel leverages its intellectual property through content creation, digital gaming, and live events.

The company utilizes an omnichannel distribution model, selling through major retail chains, wholesalers, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms. As a prominent player in the Leisure Products sub-industry, Mattel’s business model increasingly relies on high-margin licensing agreements with major entertainment entities like Disney, Microsoft, and NBCUniversal. This strategy allows the firm to capitalize on established media franchises while diversifying its revenue streams beyond traditional manufacturing.

To better understand the companys valuation and growth metrics, you may want to examine the detailed financial data on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Barbie and Hot Wheels brand performance dictates core revenue growth and margins
  • Entertainment-led licensing strategy drives high-margin royalty streams from film and television
  • Global consumer spending volatility impacts seasonal holiday toy sales and inventory turnover
  • Input cost fluctuations in resin and logistics affect manufacturing gross margins
  • Strategic partnerships with Disney and Microsoft influence market share in competitive categories
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 498.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.08 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 23.80% < 20% (prev 30.38%; Δ -6.58% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 545.5m > Net Income 498.9m
Net Debt (2.07b) to EBITDA (744.2m): 2.78 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (301.0m) vs 12m ago -8.09% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.92% > 18% (prev 0.51%; Δ 4.74k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 85.88% > 50% (prev 86.95%; Δ -1.07% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 744.2m / Interest Expense TTM 120.6m)
Altman Z'' 5.03
A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 2.49b - Total Current Liabilities 1.21b) / Total Assets 6.33b
B: 0.64 (Retained Earnings 4.06b / Total Assets 6.33b)
C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 556.3m / Avg Total Assets 6.27b)
D: 0.96 (Book Value of Equity 4.06b / Total Liabilities 4.22b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.03 = AAA
Beneish M -2.85
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 686.7m/633.3m, Revenue 5.38b/5.40b)
GMI: 1.06 (GM 47.92% / 51.02%)
AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.46 / AQ_t-1 0.42)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 5.38b / 5.40b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 498.9m - CFO 545.5m) / TA 6.33b)
Beneish M = -2.85 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of MAT shares?

As of May 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.94 with a total of 4,204,809 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.20%, over one month by +0.34%, over three months by -11.86% and over the past year by -22.95%.

Is MAT a buy, sell or hold?

Mattel has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MAT.

  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MAT price?
Analysts Target Price 18.7 25.2%
Mattel (MAT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 4.38b (4.38b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.6731
P/E Forward = 11.2613
P/S = 0.8145
P/B = 2.0816
P/EG = 1.1904
Revenue TTM = 5.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 556.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 744.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.33b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
 Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Debt = 2.94b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 342.7m
Net Debt = 2.07b USD (calculated: Debt 2.94b - CCE 866.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.46b USD (4.38b + Debt 2.94b - CCE 866.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.61 (Ebit TTM 556.3m / Interest Expense TTM 120.6m)
EV/FCF = 19.30x (Enterprise Value 6.46b / FCF TTM 334.6m)
FCF Yield = 5.18% (FCF TTM 334.6m / Enterprise Value 6.46b)
FCF Margin = 6.22% (FCF TTM 334.6m / Revenue TTM 5.38b)
Net Margin = 9.27% (Net Income TTM 498.9m / Revenue TTM 5.38b)
Gross Margin = 47.92% ((Revenue TTM 5.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.11% (prev 45.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 6.46b / Total Assets 6.33b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.10% (Interest Expense 120.6m / Debt 2.94b)
Taxrate = 18.42% (89.8m / 487.4m)
NOPAT = 453.8m (EBIT 556.3m * (1 - 18.42%))
Current Ratio = 2.06 (Total Current Assets 2.49b / Total Current Liabilities 1.21b)
Debt / Equity = 1.39 (Debt 2.94b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.78 (Net Debt 2.07b / EBITDA 744.2m)
Debt / FCF = 6.19 (Net Debt 2.07b / FCF TTM 334.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.96% (Net Income 498.9m / Total Assets 6.33b)
RoE = 22.75% (Net Income TTM 498.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = 12.29% (EBIT 556.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 2.33b))
RoIC = 9.00% (NOPAT 453.8m / Invested Capital 5.04b)
WACC = 6.98% (E(4.38b)/V(7.32b) * Re(9.42%) + D(2.94b)/V(7.32b) * Rd(4.10%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -6.90%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈433.4m ; Y1≈380.1m ; Y5≈307.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.83 (EV 4.93b - Net Debt 2.07b = Equity 2.86b / Shares 290.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 55.82 | EPS CAGR: 12.64% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 30.02 | Revenue CAGR: 0.71% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-38.37% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+10.51% | Revisions=+64% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+8.16% | Revisions=+69% | GrowthEPS=-5.6% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=+4.52% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+19.3% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +69%