MDGL Stock Analysis: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 12.176m USD | 12M Return: 88.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Rezdiffra, MASH Therapy, Liver Treatment, Thyroid Agonist
Total Rating 34
Safety 33
Buy Signal -0.51
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +30.9
Market Cap: 12.2B
Avg Turnover: 165M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility51.1%
VaR 5th Pctl8.35%
VaR vs Median-0.77%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.53
Rel. Str. IBD74.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group29.8
Character TTM
Beta1.049
Beta Downside0.813
Hurst Exponent0.546
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD46.67%
CAGR/Max DD0.76
CAGR/Mean DD2.62
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MDGL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -3.72, "2021-09": -3.79, "2021-12": -3.78, "2022-03": -3.36, "2022-06": -4.14, "2022-09": -4.75, "2022-12": -4.98, "2023-03": -4.23, "2023-06": -4.69, "2023-09": -5.34, "2023-12": -5.68, "2024-03": -7.38, "2024-06": -7.1, "2024-09": -4.92, "2024-12": -2.71, "2025-03": -3.32, "2025-06": -1.9, "2025-09": -4.96, "2025-12": -2.57, "2026-03": -1.38,
Last SUE: 1.52
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of MDGL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 0.01011, 2021-09: 0.008287, 2021-12: 3.732E-5, 2022-03: 0, 2022-06: 0, 2022-09: 0, 2022-12: 0, 2023-03: 0, 2023-06: 0, 2023-09: 0, 2023-12: 0.77, 2024-03: 0, 2024-06: 14.638, 2024-09: 62.175, 2024-12: 103.32, 2025-03: 137.25, 2025-06: 212.802, 2025-09: 287.268, 2025-12: 321.083, 2026-03: 311.337,
Last SUE: 0.59
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Seasonal Headwind

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.1% 0
Feb -0.8% 13
Mar -3.2% 22
Apr -0.8% 15
May -4.6% 28
Jun +4.2% 18
Jul -8.8% 71
Aug +4.3% 6
Sep -1.3% 8
Oct +2.7% 33
Nov +10.3% 13
Dec +5.0% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutics for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a progressive liver disease. Its lead and only approved product, Rezdiffra, is a liver-directed thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist, positioning Madrigal as a single-asset commercial-stage biotech with concentrated exposure to the MASH treatment market.

Operating within the biotechnology sub-industry of the health care sector, Madrigal relies heavily on a narrow product portfolio, making Rezdiffras commercial uptake a key driver of its financial performance. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, with its commercial activities currently concentrated in the United States.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Rezdiffra quarterly net product sales accelerate amid MASH launch
  • Competitor GLP-1 approvals threaten Rezdiffra market share
  • Operating cash burn elevates capital raise risk
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -309.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 18.08 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 74.53% < 20% (prev 258.6%; Δ -184.1% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.22 > 3% & CFO -268.1m > Net Income -309.4m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.50 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.0m) vs 12m ago 31.42% < -2%
Gross Margin: 93.07% > 18% (prev 96.61%; Δ -3.54% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 101.8% > 50% (prev 31.85%; Δ 70.00% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -10.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM -282.6m / Interest Expense TTM 26.8m)
Altman Z'' -2.17
A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 338.3m) / Total Assets 1.23b
B: -1.78 (Retained Earnings -2.18b / Total Assets 1.23b)
C: -0.25 (EBIT TTM -282.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b)
D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 543.5m / Total Liabilities 683.9m)
Altman-Z'' = -2.17 = D
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 187.4m/61.4m, Revenue 1.13b/317.4m)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 96.61% / 93.07%)
AQI: 5.39 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.00)
SGI: 3.57 (Revenue 1.13b / 317.4m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI -309.4m - CFO -268.1m) / TA 1.23b)
Beneish M = 1.33 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of MDGL shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 545.36 with a total of 315,540 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.43%, over one month by +16.71%, over three months by +6.54% and over the past year by +88.59%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 519.30 (which is 4.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is MDGL a buy, sell or hold?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MDGL.

  • StrongBuy: 10
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MDGL price?
Analysts Target Price 678.7 24.5%
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 12.2b (12.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 666.6667
P/S = 10.7513
P/B = 22.4268
Revenue TTM = 1.13b USD
EBIT TTM = -282.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -281.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 340.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 354.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.98m
Net Debt = -463.6m USD (calculated: Debt 354.3m - CCE 817.9m)
Enterprise Value = 11.7b USD (12.2b + Debt 354.3m - CCE 817.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -10.53 (Ebit TTM -282.6m / Interest Expense TTM 26.8m)
EV/FCF = -42.99x (Enterprise Value 11.7b / FCF TTM -272.4m)
FCF Yield = -2.33% (FCF TTM -272.4m / Enterprise Value 11.7b)
FCF Margin = -24.05% (FCF TTM -272.4m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Net Margin = -27.32% (Net Income TTM -309.4m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Gross Margin = 93.07% ((Revenue TTM 1.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 91.38% (prev 92.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.54 (Enterprise Value 11.7b / Total Assets 1.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.57% (Interest Expense 26.8m / Debt 354.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -223.3m (EBIT -282.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.50 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 338.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 354.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 543.5m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 1.65 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -463.6m / EBITDA -281.1m)
 Debt / FCF = 1.70 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -463.6m / FCF TTM -272.4m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 617.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.83% (Net Income -309.4m / Total Assets 1.23b)
RoE = -50.15% (Net Income TTM -309.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 617.0m)
RoCE = -29.52% (EBIT -282.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 617.0m + L.T.Debt 340.3m))
 RoIC = -26.77% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -223.3m / Invested Capital 834.1m)
 WACC = 9.57% (E(12.2b)/V(12.5b) * Re(9.67%) + D(354.3m)/V(12.5b) * Rd(7.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 72.55 | Cagr: 20.68%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -272.4m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.52 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-2.23 | Chg30d=-58.38% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.03 | Chg30d=-69.39% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.52 | Chg30d=-12.82% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+48.7% | GrowthRev=+56.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.38 | Chg30d=-3.24% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+289.8% | GrowthRev=+47.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)