MDGL Stock Analysis: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 12.176m USD | 12M Return: 88.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 165M
Qual. Beats: 1
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutics for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a progressive liver disease. Its lead and only approved product, Rezdiffra, is a liver-directed thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist, positioning Madrigal as a single-asset commercial-stage biotech with concentrated exposure to the MASH treatment market.
Operating within the biotechnology sub-industry of the health care sector, Madrigal relies heavily on a narrow product portfolio, making Rezdiffras commercial uptake a key driver of its financial performance. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, with its commercial activities currently concentrated in the United States.
- Rezdiffra quarterly net product sales accelerate amid MASH launch
- Competitor GLP-1 approvals threaten Rezdiffra market share
- Operating cash burn elevates capital raise risk
| Net Income: -309.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 18.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 74.53% < 20% (prev 258.6%; Δ -184.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.22 > 3% & CFO -268.1m > Net Income -309.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.0m) vs 12m ago 31.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 93.07% > 18% (prev 96.61%; Δ -3.54% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 101.8% > 50% (prev 31.85%; Δ 70.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -10.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM -282.6m / Interest Expense TTM 26.8m) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 338.3m) / Total Assets 1.23b |
| B: -1.78 (Retained Earnings -2.18b / Total Assets 1.23b) |
| C: -0.25 (EBIT TTM -282.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 543.5m / Total Liabilities 683.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.17 = D |
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 187.4m/61.4m, Revenue 1.13b/317.4m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 96.61% / 93.07%) |
| AQI: 5.39 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 3.57 (Revenue 1.13b / 317.4m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -309.4m - CFO -268.1m) / TA 1.23b) |
| Beneish M = 1.33 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 545.36 with a total of 315,540 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.43%, over one month by +16.71%, over three months by +6.54% and over the past year by +88.59%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 519.30 (which is 4.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MDGL.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 678.7 | 24.5% |
P/E Forward = 666.6667
P/S = 10.7513
P/B = 22.4268
Revenue TTM = 1.13b USD
EBIT TTM = -282.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -281.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 340.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 354.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.98m
Net Debt = -463.6m USD (calculated: Debt 354.3m - CCE 817.9m)
Enterprise Value = 11.7b USD (12.2b + Debt 354.3m - CCE 817.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -10.53 (Ebit TTM -282.6m / Interest Expense TTM 26.8m)
EV/FCF = -42.99x (Enterprise Value 11.7b / FCF TTM -272.4m)
FCF Yield = -2.33% (FCF TTM -272.4m / Enterprise Value 11.7b)
FCF Margin = -24.05% (FCF TTM -272.4m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Net Margin = -27.32% (Net Income TTM -309.4m / Revenue TTM 1.13b)
Gross Margin = 93.07% ((Revenue TTM 1.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 91.38% (prev 92.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.54 (Enterprise Value 11.7b / Total Assets 1.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.57% (Interest Expense 26.8m / Debt 354.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -223.3m (EBIT -282.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.50 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 338.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 354.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 543.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.65 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -463.6m / EBITDA -281.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.70 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -463.6m / FCF TTM -272.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 617.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.83% (Net Income -309.4m / Total Assets 1.23b)
RoE = -50.15% (Net Income TTM -309.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 617.0m)
RoCE = -29.52% (EBIT -282.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 617.0m + L.T.Debt 340.3m))
RoIC = -26.77% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -223.3m / Invested Capital 834.1m)
WACC = 9.57% (E(12.2b)/V(12.5b) * Re(9.67%) + D(354.3m)/V(12.5b) * Rd(7.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 72.55 | Cagr: 20.68%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -272.4m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.52 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-2.23 | Chg30d=-58.38% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.03 | Chg30d=-69.39% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.52 | Chg30d=-12.82% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+48.7% | GrowthRev=+56.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.38 | Chg30d=-3.24% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+289.8% | GrowthRev=+47.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)