(MDGL) Madrigal Pharmaceuticals - Ratings and Ratios
Rezdiffra, Liver Therapy, MASH Treatment, Thyroid Agonist
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 56.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 85.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.56% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 |
| Alpha | 67.62 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.590 |
| Beta | 0.841 |
| Beta Downside | 0.779 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.41% |
| Mean DD | 18.95% |
| Median DD | 16.97% |
Description: MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals November 06, 2025
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDGL) is a U.S.-based biopharma focused on treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Its lead asset, Rezdiffra, is a liver-targeted thyroid hormone receptor-β agonist designed to reduce liver fat and inflammation in MASH patients. The company is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, and trades as a common stock in the Biotechnology sub-industry.
As of the latest quarter (Q3 2024), Madrigal reported roughly $210 million of cash and marketable securities, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates. Phase 2b data for Rezdiffra showed a statistically significant reduction in liver fat content (-15 % vs. placebo) and favorable safety signals, positioning the program for a potential Phase 3 launch in 2025. The U.S. MASH market is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2028, driven by rising obesity and type-2 diabetes prevalence, while the broader biotech sector is experiencing a 7 % annual revenue growth rate, supported by strong venture capital inflows and accelerated FDA review pathways for liver diseases.
For a deeper dive into Madrigal’s financial outlook and competitive positioning, you may find ValueRay’s analyst notes useful as a next step in your research.
MDGL Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 12,019m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 2007-02-06 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 52.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.47 of 5 |
MDGL Dividends
Currently no dividends paidMDGL Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 101.92% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.66 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 5.38 |
| Current Volume | 270.7k |
| Average Volume | 324.3k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income (-289.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 44.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 28.98pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 129.0% (prev 1142 %; Δ -1013 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO -160.6m > Net Income -289.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.44 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (22.5m) change vs 12m ago 3.39% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 95.20% (prev 96.01%; Δ -0.80pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 60.81% (prev 7.23%; Δ 53.59pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -15.94 (EBITDA TTM -277.6m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -4.70
| (A) 0.70 = (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 391.4m) / Total Assets 1.36b |
| (B) -1.49 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.03b / Total Assets 1.36b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.49 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.23 = EBIT TTM -279.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.22b |
| (D) -2.76 = Book Value of Equity -2.03b / Total Liabilities 736.7m |
| Total Rating: -4.70 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.30
| 1. Piotroski 1.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.44% |
| 3. FCF Margin -21.82% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.55 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.18 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 192.3)% |
| 7. RoE -41.50% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 93.23% |
| 9. EPS Trend 43.53% |
What is the price of MDGL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.28%, over one month by +23.22%, over three months by +38.42% and over the past year by +70.97%.
Is MDGL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MDGL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 551.1 | 1.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 551.1 | 1.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 751.6 | 38.6% |
MDGL Fundamental Data Overview November 17, 2025
P/E Forward = 666.6667
P/S = 16.228
P/B = 19.2081
Beta = -1.014
Revenue TTM = 740.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -279.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -277.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 339.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.08m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 346.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 50.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.26b USD (12.02b + Debt 346.4m - CCE 1.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -15.94 (Ebit TTM -279.1m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m)
FCF Yield = -1.44% (FCF TTM -161.6m / Enterprise Value 11.26b)
FCF Margin = -21.82% (FCF TTM -161.6m / Revenue TTM 740.6m)
Net Margin = -39.04% (Net Income TTM -289.1m / Revenue TTM 740.6m)
Gross Margin = 95.20% ((Revenue TTM 740.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.69% (prev 95.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.26 (Enterprise Value 11.26b / Total Assets 1.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.15% (Interest Expense 7.45m / Debt 346.4m)
Taxrate = 100.0% (out of range, set to none) (-465.9m / -465.9m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 3.44 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 391.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.55 (Debt 346.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 625.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.18 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 50.7m / EBITDA -277.6m)
Debt / FCF = -0.31 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 50.7m / FCF TTM -161.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 696.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.22% (Net Income -289.1m / Total Assets 1.36b)
RoE = -41.50% (Net Income TTM -289.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 696.7m)
RoCE = -26.93% (EBIT -279.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 696.7m + L.T.Debt 339.8m))
RoIC = 201.2% (negative operating profit) (EBIT -279.1m / (Assets 1.36b - Curr.Liab 391.4m - Cash 1.11b))
WACC = 8.85% (E(12.02b)/V(12.37b) * Re(9.11%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.66%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -161.6m)
EPS Correlation: 43.53 | EPS CAGR: 0.31% | SUE: -1.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.23 | Revenue CAGR: 762.1% | SUE: 2.18 | # QB: 3
Additional Sources for MDGL Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle