(MEDP) Medpace Holdings - Overview
Stock: Clinical Trials, Regulatory Affairs, Data Analysis, Laboratory Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 53.49 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.999 |
| Beta Downside | 0.915 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.38% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.90 |
Description: MEDP Medpace Holdings January 06, 2026
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) is a contract research organization (CRO) that delivers end-to-end clinical development services-from Phase I through Phase IV-for pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical-device clients across North America, Europe, and Asia. Its portfolio includes trial design, central laboratory coordination, project management, regulatory affairs, monitoring, data management, pharmacovigilance, NDA submissions, and post-marketing support, as well as specialized bio-analytical, human pharmacology, imaging, and ECG reading capabilities. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Medpace operates within the GICS “Life Sciences Tools & Services” sub-industry.
Key recent metrics: Q4 2023 revenue rose 12% YoY to $388 million, driven by a 20% increase in biotech contracts; the company reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%, reflecting operational scaling after the 2022 acquisition of a European imaging lab. Sector-wide, the global CRO market is projected to grow at a 7.5% CAGR through 2028, fueled by rising R&D intensity (average 18% of pharma revenue) and the acceleration of decentralized trial models, which Medpace has integrated into its service platform.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Medpace’s valuation dynamics, you may find it useful to explore ValueRay’s analytical tools.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income: 433.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.40 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -23.18% < 20% (prev -0.42%; Δ -22.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.41 > 3% & CFO 711.2m > Net Income 433.0m |
| Net Debt (-141.4m) to EBITDA (520.8m): -0.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.7m) vs 12m ago -7.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.11% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 3081 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.9% > 50% (prev 99.37%; Δ 23.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 64.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 520.8m / Interest Expense TTM 7.88m) |
Altman Z'' -1.81
| A: -0.31 (Total Current Assets 737.3m - Total Current Liabilities 1.28b) / Total Assets 1.75b |
| B: -0.34 (Retained Earnings -596.2m / Total Assets 1.75b) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 506.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.92b) |
| D: -0.41 (Book Value of Equity -601.6m / Total Liabilities 1.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.81 = D |
Beneish M -3.01
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 373.0m/311.5m, Revenue 2.36b/2.07b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 31.11% / 29.69%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.43 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 2.36b / 2.07b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 433.0m - CFO 711.2m) / TA 1.75b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MEDP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.95%, over one month by +2.40%, over three months by +0.36% and over the past year by +66.40%.
Is MEDP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MEDP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 545.8 | -6.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 545.8 | -6.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 791.2 | 35.8% |
MEDP Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 36.9004
P/S = 7.0236
P/B = 56.4101
P/EG = 3.7299
Revenue TTM = 2.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 506.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 520.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.1m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 24.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 144.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -141.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 16.42b USD (16.56b + Debt 144.0m - CCE 285.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 64.22 (Ebit TTM 506.3m / Interest Expense TTM 7.88m)
EV/FCF = 23.34x (Enterprise Value 16.42b / FCF TTM 703.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.28% (FCF TTM 703.6m / Enterprise Value 16.42b)
FCF Margin = 29.83% (FCF TTM 703.6m / Revenue TTM 2.36b)
Net Margin = 18.36% (Net Income TTM 433.0m / Revenue TTM 2.36b)
Gross Margin = 31.11% ((Revenue TTM 2.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.84% (prev 29.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.37 (Enterprise Value 16.42b / Total Assets 1.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.48% (Interest Expense 7.88m / Debt 144.0m)
Taxrate = 22.19% (31.7m / 142.8m)
NOPAT = 393.9m (EBIT 506.3m * (1 - 22.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.57 (Total Current Assets 737.3m / Total Current Liabilities 1.28b)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 144.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 293.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.27 (Net Debt -141.4m / EBITDA 520.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.20 (Net Debt -141.4m / FCF TTM 703.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 471.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.57% (Net Income 433.0m / Total Assets 1.75b)
RoE = 91.88% (Net Income TTM 433.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 471.3m)
RoCE = 85.76% (EBIT 506.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 471.3m + L.T.Debt 119.1m))
RoIC = 83.58% (NOPAT 393.9m / Invested Capital 471.3m)
WACC = 9.55% (E(16.56b)/V(16.71b) * Re(9.60%) + D(144.0m)/V(16.71b) * Rd(5.48%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -3.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.38% ; FCFF base≈636.4m ; Y1≈785.1m ; Y5≈1.34b
Fair Price DCF = 614.0 (EV 17.15b - Net Debt -141.4m = Equity 17.29b / Shares 28.2m; r=9.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 10.03 | EPS CAGR: -42.84% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.50 | Revenue CAGR: 22.47% | SUE: 0.77 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=+0.091 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.51 | Chg30d=+0.024 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+9.2% | Growth Revenue=+12.0%