(MEDP) Medpace Holdings - Overview
Stock: Clinical Trials, Regulatory Affairs, Data Analysis, Laboratory Services
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 |
| Alpha | 12.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.015 |
| Beta Downside | 0.803 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.38% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.71 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: MEDP Medpace Holdings January 06, 2026
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) is a contract research organization (CRO) that delivers end-to-end clinical development services-from Phase I through Phase IV-for pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical-device clients across North America, Europe, and Asia. Its portfolio includes trial design, central laboratory coordination, project management, regulatory affairs, monitoring, data management, pharmacovigilance, NDA submissions, and post-marketing support, as well as specialized bio-analytical, human pharmacology, imaging, and ECG reading capabilities. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Medpace operates within the GICS “Life Sciences Tools & Services” sub-industry.
Key recent metrics: Q4 2023 revenue rose 12% YoY to $388 million, driven by a 20% increase in biotech contracts; the company reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%, reflecting operational scaling after the 2022 acquisition of a European imaging lab. Sector-wide, the global CRO market is projected to grow at a 7.5% CAGR through 2028, fueled by rising R&D intensity (average 18% of pharma revenue) and the acceleration of decentralized trial models, which Medpace has integrated into its service platform.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Medpace’s valuation dynamics, you may find it useful to explore ValueRay’s analytical tools.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 451.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.36 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.63 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -14.00% < 20% (prev -3.57%; Δ -10.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.36 > 3% & CFO 713.2m > Net Income 451.1m |
| Net Debt (-383.4m) to EBITDA (551.9m): -0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.0m) vs 12m ago -9.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.06% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 2975 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.1% > 50% (prev 100.4%; Δ 23.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -115.7 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 551.9m / Interest Expense TTM -4.65m) |
Altman Z'' -0.48
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 989.6m - Total Current Liabilities 1.34b) / Total Assets 1.98b |
| B: -0.23 (Retained Earnings -460.0m / Total Assets 1.98b) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 537.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.04b) |
| D: -0.31 (Book Value of Equity -464.6m / Total Liabilities 1.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.48 = B |
Beneish M -2.91
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 402.1m/296.4m, Revenue 2.53b/2.11b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 30.06% / 31.12%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.53b / 2.11b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 451.1m - CFO 713.2m) / TA 1.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MEDP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -21.03%, over one month by -29.65%, over three months by -27.61% and over the past year by +25.01%.
Is MEDP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MEDP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 490.5 | 14.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 490.5 | 14.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 510.2 | 19.2% |
MEDP Fundamental Data Overview February 13, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.5957
P/S = 4.7552
P/B = 26.2088
P/EG = 2.6889
Revenue TTM = 2.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 537.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 551.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 113.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 23.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 113.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -383.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.65b USD (12.03b + Debt 113.6m - CCE 497.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -115.7 (Ebit TTM 537.7m / Interest Expense TTM -4.65m)
EV/FCF = 16.44x (Enterprise Value 11.65b / FCF TTM 708.7m)
FCF Yield = 6.08% (FCF TTM 708.7m / Enterprise Value 11.65b)
FCF Margin = 28.01% (FCF TTM 708.7m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Net Margin = 17.83% (Net Income TTM 451.1m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Gross Margin = 30.06% ((Revenue TTM 2.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.98% (prev 29.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.90 (Enterprise Value 11.65b / Total Assets 1.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.94% (Interest Expense 7.88m / Debt 113.6m)
Taxrate = 13.84% (21.7m / 156.8m)
NOPAT = 463.3m (EBIT 537.7m * (1 - 13.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 989.6m / Total Current Liabilities 1.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 113.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 459.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -383.4m / EBITDA 551.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.54 (Net Debt -383.4m / FCF TTM 708.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 379.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.13% (Net Income 451.1m / Total Assets 1.98b)
RoE = 118.8% (Net Income TTM 451.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 379.7m)
RoCE = 109.0% (EBIT 537.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 379.7m + L.T.Debt 113.6m))
RoIC = 122.0% (NOPAT 463.3m / Invested Capital 379.7m)
WACC = 9.63% (E(12.03b)/V(12.15b) * Re(9.66%) + D(113.6m)/V(12.15b) * Rd(6.94%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -4.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.17% ; FCFF base≈654.1m ; Y1≈806.9m ; Y5≈1.37b
Fair Price DCF = 627.8 (EV 17.44b - Net Debt -383.4m = Equity 17.82b / Shares 28.4m; r=9.63% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 91.54 | EPS CAGR: 31.13% | SUE: 2.20 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 97.80 | Revenue CAGR: 22.50% | SUE: 0.78 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.94 | Chg30d=-0.101 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.31 | Chg30d=+0.795 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+13.3% | Growth Revenue=+10.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.09 | Chg30d=+0.705 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+10.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.6%