MEDP Stock Analysis: Medpace Holdings | NASDAQ
Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.253m USD | 12M Return: 12.3% | US58506Q1094 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 186M
EPS Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) is a clinical research organization (CRO) that provides drug and medical device development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, the company operates across North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia, supporting clinical trials from Phase I through Phase IV across a wide range of therapeutic areas.
The companys service portfolio spans the full clinical development lifecycle, including development plan design, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance, and new drug application submissions, along with post-marketing clinical support. Medpace further provides specialized offerings such as bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials.
As a large-cap stock in the GICS Life Sciences Tools & Services sub-industry, Medpace is part of the broader outsourced drug development sector, where CROs help sponsors reduce trial timelines and costs. Listed on NASDAQ since its August 2016 IPO, the company operates on a global scale with an asset-light, services-driven business model that relies on long-term contracts with biopharma and medical device sponsors.
- Biotech funding recovery boosts clinical trial bookings growth
- Small-mid biotech exposure drives backlog cancellation risk
- Labor cost inflation pressures operating margins
| Net Income: 517.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.31 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.85% < 20% (prev -23.18%; Δ 14.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.31 > 3% & CFO 723.0m > Net Income 517.8m |
| Net Debt (-439.2m) to EBITDA (635.3m): -0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (28.4m) vs 12m ago -4.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.14% > 18% (prev 31.11%; Δ -1.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 140.0% > 50% (prev 134.5%; Δ 5.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.25b - Total Current Liabilities 1.50b) / Total Assets 2.30b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -373.6m / Total Assets 2.30b) |
| C: 0.30 (EBIT TTM 607.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.03b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 584.9m / Total Liabilities 1.72b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.13 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 447.6m/373.0m, Revenue 2.84b/2.36b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 31.11% / 29.14%) |
| AQI: 0.73 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.84b / 2.36b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 517.8m - CFO 723.0m) / TA 2.30b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 652.01 with a total of 219,433 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.57%, over one month by +4.81%, over three months by +12.75% and over the past year by +12.34%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 617.70 (which is 5.3% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Medpace Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.07. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MEDP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 637.3 | -2.3% |
P/E Trailing = 36.3109
P/E Forward = 31.9489
P/S = 6.4308
P/B = 39.7032
P/EG = 2.9349
Revenue TTM = 2.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 607.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 635.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 23.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 266.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 120.1m
Net Debt = -439.2m USD (calculated: Debt 266.1m - CCE 705.3m)
Enterprise Value = 17.8b USD (18.3b + Debt 266.1m - CCE 705.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 607.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 24.79x (Enterprise Value 17.8b / FCF TTM 718.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.03% (FCF TTM 718.5m / Enterprise Value 17.8b)
FCF Margin = 25.31% (FCF TTM 718.5m / Revenue TTM 2.84b)
Net Margin = 18.24% (Net Income TTM 517.8m / Revenue TTM 2.84b)
Gross Margin = 29.14% ((Revenue TTM 2.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.27% (prev 28.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.74 (Enterprise Value 17.8b / Total Assets 2.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 266.1m)
Taxrate = 17.41% (109.2m / 627.0m)
NOPAT = 501.4m (EBIT 607.1m * (1 - 17.41%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 1.25b / Total Current Liabilities 1.50b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 266.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 584.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -439.2m / EBITDA 635.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.61 (Net Debt -439.2m / FCF TTM 718.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 519.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 25.54% (Net Income 517.8m / Total Assets 2.30b)
RoE = 99.76% (Net Income TTM 517.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 519.0m)
RoCE = 75.28% (EBIT 607.1m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 2.30b - Current Liab 1.50b))
RoIC = 72.90% (NOPAT 501.4m / Invested Capital 687.8m)
WACC = 7.53% (E(18.3b)/V(18.5b) * Re(7.64%) + D(266.1m)/V(18.5b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 7.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.14 | Cagr: -5.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.72% ; FCFF base≈712.5m ; Y1≈728.1m ; Y5≈798.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 459.2 (EV 12.4b - Net Debt -439.2m = Equity 12.8b / Shares 27.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 2.12% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.26 | EPS CAGR: 27.36% | SUE: 1.99 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 98.42 | Revenue CAGR: 16.55% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.66 | Chg30d=+0.99% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=18.17 | Chg30d=+2.62% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+12.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.71 | Chg30d=+2.09% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+6.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +18% (up=5, down=3)