MEDP Stock Analysis: Medpace Holdings | NASDAQ
Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 15.152m USD | 12M Return: 73.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 143M
EPS Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 98.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MEDP) is a Cincinnati-based contract research organization (CRO) founded in 1992 that provides outsourced clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries. The company supports clinical trials across all phases (Phase I through Phase IV) and operates globally, with service coverage spanning North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia.
Its full-service offering includes clinical trial design, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management, biostatistics, pharmacovigilance, and new drug application submissions, along with specialized capabilities such as bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging, and electrocardiography reading support.
As a large-cap stock in the GICS Life Sciences Tools & Services sub-industry, Medpace operates within the broader CRO sector, which provides outsourced R&D and clinical trial management to drug and device developers seeking to reduce fixed costs and accelerate time-to-market for new therapies.
- Backlog growth and book-to-bill ratio signal trial demand
- Biotech funding pressures elevate clinical trial cancellation rates
- Operating margin expansion outpaces larger CRO competitors
| Net Income: 460.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.35 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.69% < 20% (prev -13.95%; Δ 6.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.35 > 3% & CFO 739.2m > Net Income 460.4m |
| Net Debt (-530.4m) to EBITDA (599.9m): -0.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.0m) vs 12m ago -7.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.07% > 18% (prev 31.51%; Δ -2.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 133.0% > 50% (prev 113.7%; Δ 19.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 1.35b) / Total Assets 2.13b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -336.1m / Total Assets 2.13b) |
| C: 0.28 (EBIT TTM 571.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.01b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 598.3m / Total Liabilities 1.53b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.17 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 394.6m/298.2m, Revenue 2.68b/2.16b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 31.51% / 29.07%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 2.68b / 2.16b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 460.4m - CFO 739.2m) / TA 2.13b) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 557.60 with a total of 356,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.24%, over one month by +23.69%, over three months by +12.42% and over the past year by +73.44%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 520.50 (which is 6.7% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Medpace Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MEDP.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 443.5 | -20.5% |
P/E Trailing = 33.4093
P/E Forward = 31.25
P/S = 5.6204
P/B = 25.1069
P/EG = 3.2338
Revenue TTM = 2.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 571.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 599.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 98.4m USD (estimated: total debt 122.3m - short term 23.8m)
Short Term Debt = 23.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 122.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 122.3m already included)
Net Debt = -530.4m USD (calculated: Debt 122.3m - CCE 652.7m)
Enterprise Value = 14.6b USD (15.2b + Debt 122.3m - CCE 652.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 571.8m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 19.82x (Enterprise Value 14.6b / FCF TTM 737.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.05% (FCF TTM 737.8m / Enterprise Value 14.6b)
FCF Margin = 27.55% (FCF TTM 737.8m / Revenue TTM 2.68b)
Net Margin = 17.19% (Net Income TTM 460.4m / Revenue TTM 2.68b)
Gross Margin = 29.07% ((Revenue TTM 2.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.90b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.78% (prev 28.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.87 (Enterprise Value 14.6b / Total Assets 2.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 122.3m)
Taxrate = 19.48% (111.4m / 571.8m)
NOPAT = 460.4m (EBIT 571.8m * (1 - 19.48%))
Current Ratio = 0.85 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 1.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 122.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 598.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.88 (Net Debt -530.4m / EBITDA 599.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.72 (Net Debt -530.4m / FCF TTM 737.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 380.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.87% (Net Income 460.4m / Total Assets 2.13b)
RoE = 120.9% (Net Income TTM 460.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 380.8m)
RoCE = 119.3% (EBIT 571.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 380.8m + L.T.Debt 98.4m))
RoIC = 68.26% (NOPAT 460.4m / Invested Capital 674.5m)
WACC = 9.14% (E(15.2b)/V(15.3b) * Re(9.21%) + D(122.3m)/V(15.3b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -64.44 | Cagr: -4.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.47% ; FCFF base≈659.1m ; Y1≈755.5m ; Y5≈1.11b
[DCF] Fair Price = 533.2 (EV 14.7b - Net Debt -530.4m = Equity 15.2b / Shares 28.6m; r=9.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.26 | EPS CAGR: 28.21% | SUE: 1.30 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 98.48 | Revenue CAGR: 16.21% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.96 | Chg30d=-2.99% | Revisions=-18% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.26 | Chg30d=-5.16% | Revisions=-73% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.07 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=-15% | GrowthEPS=+11.7% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=18.76 | Chg30d=+1.08% | Revisions=-31% | GrowthEPS=+9.9% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -41% (up=10, down=26)