(MERC) Mercer International - Overview
Stock: Pulp, Lumber, Energy, Chemicals
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.33% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.37% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -12.85% |
| Payout Consistency | 40.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 15.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.00% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.68 |
| Alpha | -92.50 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.260 |
| Beta Downside | 1.529 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 85.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.53 |
Description: MERC Mercer International January 01, 2026
Mercer International Inc. (NASDAQ:MERC) manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and northern bleached hardwood kraft (NBHK) pulp across the United States, Germany, China, and other export markets. The firm operates two segments-Pulp and Solid Wood-through which it produces pulp, lumber, cross-laminated timber (CLT), glue-laminated timber, pallets, and a suite of biomass-derived products (e.g., bio-fuels, tall oil, lignin, wood pellets). It also runs biomass cogeneration plants that generate carbon-neutral electricity for internal use and external sale.
Key performance indicators from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show total revenue of roughly **$1.3 billion**, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of **≈ 12 %**. The company’s pulp capacity stands at **≈ 1.6 million metric tons** per year, while its solid-wood facilities can produce **≈ 2.0 million cubic meters** of lumber and engineered wood products. These figures suggest a diversified revenue base, but the firm’s profitability is sensitive to pulp price spreads and biomass fuel costs, which can fluctuate with global commodity cycles.
Two macro-level drivers are especially material to MERC’s outlook. First, the global shift toward sustainable packaging is expanding demand for NBSK pulp, which is a key feedstock for high-grade paper and board used in recyclable cartons. Second, the construction sector’s adoption of CLT and other mass-timber solutions is accelerating, driven by carbon-budgeting policies in Europe and North America that favor low-embodied-carbon building materials. Both trends are expected to support top-line growth, but they also expose the company to competitive pressure from larger integrated pulp-paper groups that can leverage scale to lock in long-term supply contracts.
**Assumption:** The above KPIs are taken directly from the FY 2023 filing; any subsequent quarter-end releases could materially alter margins or capacity utilization. **Uncertainty:** Future regulatory changes regarding biomass energy incentives could either enhance or diminish the value of MERC’s cogeneration assets.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of MERC’s valuation dynamics, you may find it useful to explore the analytics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -172.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.40% < 20% (prev 38.50%; Δ -8.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 33.6m > Net Income -172.5m |
| Net Debt (1.47b) to EBITDA (124.2m): 11.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (66.9m) vs 12m ago 0.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 4.47% > 18% (prev 0.06%; Δ 441.6% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 79.57% > 50% (prev 80.93%; Δ -1.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.37 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 124.2m / Interest Expense TTM 113.4m) |
Altman Z'' 1.58
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 867.8m - Total Current Liabilities 288.2m) / Total Assets 2.29b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 31.7m / Total Assets 2.29b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -42.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.40b) |
| D: -0.00 (Book Value of Equity -6.61m / Total Liabilities 1.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.58 = BB |
Beneish M -2.72
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 328.4m/352.5m, Revenue 1.91b/2.03b) |
| GMI: 1.29 (GM 4.47% / 5.79%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 1.91b / 2.03b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -172.5m - CFO 33.6m) / TA 2.29b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.72 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MERC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -16.75%, over one month by -25.22%, over three months by -10.11% and over the past year by -73.73%.
Is MERC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MERC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2 | 18.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2 | 18.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1 | -39.6% |
MERC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.0713
P/B = 0.3791
P/EG = 1.54
Revenue TTM = 1.91b USD
EBIT TTM = -42.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 124.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.51b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 16.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.47b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.61b USD (136.0m + Debt 1.57b - CCE 98.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.37 (Ebit TTM -42.0m / Interest Expense TTM 113.4m)
EV/FCF = -26.12x (Enterprise Value 1.61b / FCF TTM -61.6m)
FCF Yield = -3.83% (FCF TTM -61.6m / Enterprise Value 1.61b)
FCF Margin = -3.23% (FCF TTM -61.6m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Net Margin = -9.04% (Net Income TTM -172.5m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Gross Margin = 4.47% ((Revenue TTM 1.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.82b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 0.15% (prev -6.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 1.61b / Total Assets 2.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 28.5m / Debt 1.57b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -33.2m (EBIT -42.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.01 (Total Current Assets 867.8m / Total Current Liabilities 288.2m)
Debt / Equity = 4.37 (Debt 1.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 359.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.85 (Net Debt 1.47b / EBITDA 124.2m)
Debt / FCF = -23.91 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.47b / FCF TTM -61.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 418.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.20% (Net Income -172.5m / Total Assets 2.29b)
RoE = -41.24% (Net Income TTM -172.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 418.3m)
RoCE = -2.18% (EBIT -42.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 418.3m + L.T.Debt 1.51b))
RoIC = -1.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -33.2m / Invested Capital 1.89b)
WACC = 2.16% (E(136.0m)/V(1.71b) * Re(10.58%) + D(1.57b)/V(1.71b) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.29%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -61.6m)
EPS Correlation: -56.51 | EPS CAGR: -15.46% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -72.31 | Revenue CAGR: -3.27% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.74 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.54 | Chg30d=-0.160 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+58.5% | Growth Revenue=+9.8%