MESO Stock Analysis: Mesoblast | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.317m USD | 12M Return: 66.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Cell Therapies, Regenerative Medicine, Stem Cells
Total Rating 23
Safety 32
Buy Signal -0.40
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +12.9
Market Cap: 2.32B
Avg Turnover: 3.01M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility102%
VaR 5th Pctl15.4%
VaR vs Median-6.81%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.05
Rel. Str. IBD72.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group39.3
Character TTM
Beta1.572
Beta Downside1.140
Hurst Exponent0.350
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD82.19%
CAGR/Max DD0.30
CAGR/Mean DD0.67
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MESO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.33, "2021-09": -0.35, "2021-12": -0.4, "2022-03": -0.33, "2022-06": -0.33, "2022-09": -0.24, "2022-12": -0.33, "2023-03": -0.25, "2023-06": -0.29, "2023-09": -0.1317, "2023-12": 0, "2024-03": 0, "2024-06": null, "2024-09": -0.28, "2024-12": -0.04, "2025-03": 0, "2025-06": -0.04, "2025-09": -0.07, "2025-12": null, "2026-03": 0,
Last SUE: 0.29
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MESO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1.996, 2021-09: 3.594, 2021-12: 2.382, 2022-03: 2.011, 2022-06: 2.224, 2022-09: 1.443, 2022-12: 1.98, 2023-03: 1.939, 2023-06: 2.139, 2023-09: 1.694, 2023-12: 1.694, 2024-03: 1.257, 2024-06: 1.257, 2024-09: 1.578, 2024-12: 1.578, 2025-03: 7.021, 2025-06: 7.021, 2025-09: 25.671, 2025-12: 25.671, 2026-03: null,
Rev. CAGR: 90.81%
Rev. Trend: 72.2%
Last SUE: -2.33
Qual. Beats: -3

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Overextended 1w
Volatile

Tailwinds

Ep Pivot

Seasonality

Not enough history
Description: MESO Mesoblast

Mesoblast Limited (MESO) is an Australian biotechnology firm specializing in the development of regenerative medicine therapies. The company utilizes a proprietary platform based on mesenchymal lineage cells to target systemic inflammatory conditions, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic pain. Its lead product candidate, Remestemcel-L, is currently undergoing Phase III clinical trials for multiple indications, including acute graft versus host disease and chronic heart failure.

The biotechnology sector typically operates on a high-risk, research-intensive business model where companies rely on strategic partnerships and intellectual property to fund long-term clinical development. Mesoblast maintains collaborations with global entities such as Tasly Pharmaceutical Group and Grünenthal to facilitate the commercialization and distribution of its cellular therapies across international markets.

Regenerative medicine focuses on repairing or replacing damaged human cells and tissues, a field that requires significant regulatory navigation before product approval. For a deeper look into these regulatory milestones and financial metrics, ValueRay provides additional analytical tools. The company’s pipeline also includes treatments for rheumatoid arthritis and diabetic nephropathy, reflecting a diversified approach to cellular medicine.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • FDA approval decision for Remestemcel-L in pediatric graft versus host disease
  • Clinical trial results for chronic low back pain and heart failure therapies
  • Commercial partnership milestones and royalty payments from global strategic collaborators
  • Cash runway duration and potential capital raises for late-stage product development
  • Regulatory pathway clarity for mesenchymal lineage cell platform across multiple indications
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 0.5
Net Income: -94.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 113.8% < 20% (prev -54.16%; Δ 168.0% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.07 > 3% & CFO -51.2m > Net Income -94.4m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (129.2m) vs 12m ago 13.11% < -2%
Gross Margin: -53.34% > 18% (prev -398.0%; Δ 344.7% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.11% > 50% (prev 0.87%; Δ 8.24% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM -70.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.9m)
Altman Z'' -1.51
A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 202.5m - Total Current Liabilities 128.1m) / Total Assets 782.3m
B: -1.34 (Retained Earnings -1.05b / Total Assets 782.3m)
C: -0.10 (EBIT TTM -70.8m / Avg Total Assets 717.8m)
D: 2.77 (Book Value of Equity 574.7m / Total Liabilities 207.6m)
Altman-Z'' = -1.51 = D
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 2.22 (Receivables 43.3m/1.69m, Revenue 65.4m/5.67m)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 0.83 (AQ_t 0.73 / AQ_t-1 0.88)
SGI: 11.53 (Revenue 65.4m / 5.67m)
TATA: -0.06 (NI -94.4m - CFO -51.2m) / TA 782.3m)
Beneish M = 5.42 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of MESO shares?

As of July 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.24 with a total of 488,360 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +23.24%, over one month by +32.56%, over three months by +15.81% and over the past year by +66.42%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 17.40 (which is 4.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is MESO a buy, sell or hold?

Mesoblast has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MESO.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MESO price?
Analysts Target Price 35 91.9%
Mesoblast (MESO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.32b (2.32b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 454.5455
P/S = 33.0997
P/B = 3.7681
Revenue TTM = 65.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -70.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -64.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 60.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 69.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 143.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.27m
Net Debt = 13.8m USD (calculated: Debt 143.4m - CCE 129.6m)
Enterprise Value = 2.33b USD (2.32b + Debt 143.4m - CCE 129.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.09 (Ebit TTM -70.8m / Interest Expense TTM 22.9m)
EV/FCF = -46.29x (Enterprise Value 2.33b / FCF TTM -50.3m)
FCF Yield = -2.16% (FCF TTM -50.3m / Enterprise Value 2.33b)
FCF Margin = -77.00% (FCF TTM -50.3m / Revenue TTM 65.4m)
Net Margin = -144.3% (Net Income TTM -94.4m / Revenue TTM 65.4m)
Gross Margin = -53.34% ((Revenue TTM 65.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 100.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -4.72% (prev -4.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.98 (Enterprise Value 2.33b / Total Assets 782.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.99% (Interest Expense 22.9m / Debt 143.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -55.9m (EBIT -70.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 202.5m / Total Current Liabilities 128.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 143.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 574.7m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -0.22 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 13.8m / EBITDA -64.3m)
 Debt / FCF = -0.27 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 13.8m / FCF TTM -50.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 586.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.15% (Net Income -94.4m / Total Assets 782.3m)
RoE = -16.10% (Net Income TTM -94.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 586.1m)
RoCE = -10.95% (EBIT -70.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 586.1m + L.T.Debt 60.1m))
 RoIC = -7.76% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -55.9m / Invested Capital 720.1m)
 WACC = 11.58% (E(2.32b)/V(2.46b) * Re(11.51%) + D(143.4m)/V(2.46b) * Rd(15.99%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.16 | Cagr: 20.36%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -50.3m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 72.23 | Revenue CAGR: 90.81% | SUE: -2.33 | # QB: -3
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.47 | Chg30d=+3.06% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+34.6% | GrowthRev=+578.7%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=-0.16 | Chg30d=-128.57% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+66.3% | GrowthRev=+73.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)