MESO Stock Analysis: Mesoblast | NASDAQ

Regenerative Medicine, Cell Therapy, Cardiology, Gastroenterology

Total Rating 9

Safety 30

Buy Signal -0.72

Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: +7.9

Market Cap: 1.61B
Avg Turnover: 3.33M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility121%

VaR 5^th Pctl18.8%

VaR vs Median-5.86%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.14

Rel. Str. IBD39.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group33.3 pctl

Character TTM

Beta1.792

Beta Downside1.474

Hurst Exponent0.340

Choppyness55.4%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD52.33%

CAGR/Max DD1.61

CAGR/Mean DD3.65

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 0.29
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 216.79%
Rev. Trend: 88.7%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -5

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Overextended 1w

Tailwinds

Ep Pivot

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -3.3% 11

Feb +3.0% 27

Mar +2.1% 7

Apr -0.2% 10

May +1.1% 8

Jun -6.8% 20

Jul +4.7% 33

Aug -2.7% 18

Sep -6.4% 22

Oct -2.4% 11

Nov +3.2% 40

Dec -3.7% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MESO Mesoblast

Mesoblast Limited (MESO) is an Australian-headquartered biotechnology company listed on NASDAQ that develops regenerative medicines using mesenchymal lineage cells, a type of adult stem cell capable of modulating immune responses and promoting tissue repair. The company focuses on cell-based therapies for conditions with limited treatment options, a subsector of biotechnology often referred to as cell therapy.

The companys lead candidate, Remestemcel-L, is in Phase III clinical trials for multiple indications, including steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease (SR-aGVHD), inflammatory bowel disease, chronic heart failure, and chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease. It is also developing MPC-300-IV for biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis and diabetic nephropathy. Phase III trials represent the final stage of clinical testing typically required before seeking regulatory approval.

Mesoblast was incorporated in 2004, is headquartered in Melbourne, and IPOd on NASDAQ in November 2015. It operates through a partnership-driven commercialization model, with strategic alliances with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group (for heart failure and acute myocardial infarction programs), JCR Pharmaceuticals (for epidermolysis bullosa and neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy), and Grünenthal (for chronic low back pain). Such licensing and co-development arrangements are common in the biotech industry, allowing smaller developers to leverage larger partners manufacturing, regulatory, and commercial infrastructure.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Ryoncil sales ramp in pediatric graft versus host disease
Phase III heart failure data readout for Remestemcel-L
Partnership milestone payments from Tasly and Grünenthal
Cash burn pressures as company funds commercial launch

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5

Net Income: -57.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.70 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 96.35% < 20% (prev 591.5%; Δ -495.1% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -43.8m > Net Income -57.5m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.43 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (129.8m) vs 12m ago 1.92% < -2%
Gross Margin: 84.09% > 18% (prev -208.5%; Δ 292.6% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 15.51% > 50% (prev 2.19%; Δ 13.32% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM -51.2m / Interest Expense TTM 23.9m)

Altman Z'' -1.04

A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 197.5m - Total Current Liabilities 81.1m) / Total Assets 773.1m
B: -1.38 (Retained Earnings -1.07b / Total Assets 773.1m)
C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -51.2m / Avg Total Assets 778.9m)
D: 2.78 (Book Value of Equity 568.4m / Total Liabilities 204.7m)
Altman-Z'' = -1.04 = CCC

Beneish M 0.92

DSRI: 0.55 (Receivables 57.1m/14.9m, Revenue 120.8m/17.2m)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.73 / AQ_t-1 0.73)
SGI: 7.02 (Revenue 120.8m / 17.2m)
TATA: -0.02 (NI -57.5m - CFO -43.8m) / TA 773.1m)
Beneish M = 0.92 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of MESO shares?

As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.67 with a total of 696,313 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +24.86%, over one month by +5.38%, over three months by +10.90% and over the past year by -4.22%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.70 (which is 6.2% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is MESO a buy, sell or hold?

Mesoblast has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MESO.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 2
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MESO price?

Analysts Target Price	37	136.1%

Mesoblast (MESO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 1.61b (1.61b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 454.5455
P/S = 13.3796
P/B = 2.8054
Revenue TTM = 120.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -51.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -43.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 108.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 135.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.10m
Net Debt = 32.5m USD (calculated: Debt 135.4m - CCE 102.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.64b USD (1.61b + Debt 135.4m - CCE 102.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.14 (Ebit TTM -51.2m / Interest Expense TTM 23.9m)
EV/FCF = -38.75x (Enterprise Value 1.64b / FCF TTM -42.4m)
FCF Yield = -2.58% (FCF TTM -42.4m / Enterprise Value 1.64b)
FCF Margin = -35.07% (FCF TTM -42.4m / Revenue TTM 120.8m)
Net Margin = -47.60% (Net Income TTM -57.5m / Revenue TTM 120.8m)
Gross Margin = 84.09% ((Revenue TTM 120.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 19.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 56.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.12 (Enterprise Value 1.64b / Total Assets 773.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 17.68% (Interest Expense 23.9m / Debt 135.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -40.5m (EBIT -51.2m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.43 (Total Current Assets 197.5m / Total Current Liabilities 81.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 135.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 568.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.74 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 32.5m / EBITDA -43.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.77 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 32.5m / FCF TTM -42.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 571.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.38% (Net Income -57.5m / Total Assets 773.1m)
RoE = -10.06% (Net Income TTM -57.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 571.5m)
RoCE = -7.53% (EBIT -51.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 571.5m + L.T.Debt 108.6m))
RoIC = -5.79% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -40.5m / Invested Capital 699.6m)
WACC = 11.83% (E(1.61b)/V(1.74b) * Re(11.65%) + D(135.4m)/V(1.74b) * Rd(17.68%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.78 | Cagr: 6.68%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -42.4m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.70 | Revenue CAGR: 216.8% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -5
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.08 | Chg30d=-200.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=-187.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=+6.12% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+34.6% | GrowthRev=+586.2%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+8.33% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+87.6% | GrowthRev=+51.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)