(MGPI) MGP Ingredients - Overview
Stock: Distilled Spirits, Branded Spirits, Wheat Starch, Wheat Protein, Pea Protein
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 74.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 22.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.62% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.57 |
| Alpha | -32.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.600 |
| Beta Downside | 0.251 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 81.88% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.42 |
Description: MGPI MGP Ingredients December 26, 2025
MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ: MGPI) is a vertically integrated producer of distilled spirits and food-grade ingredients. It operates three distinct segments: Distillery Solutions, which converts corn, barley, wheat and other grains into food-grade alcohol, bourbon/rye whiskeys, grain neutral spirits (e.g., vodka, gin) and co-products such as dried distillers’ grain; Branded Spirits, which markets a tiered portfolio ranging from premium tequila and bourbon (Penelope, Yellowstone, Ezra Brooks) to mid-range and value labels (Brady’s Irish Cream, Arrow Cordials) plus private-label offerings; and Ingredient Solutions, which supplies specialty wheat starches (Fibersym), wheat proteins (Arise, Proterra), gluten-free pea proteins and commodity starch/protein products to food manufacturers and bakeries.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023, assumed from the latest SEC filing) show revenue of roughly **$2.2 billion**, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near **12 %**, driven primarily by the Distillery Solutions segment’s grain-to-alcohol conversion efficiency. The company’s exposure to corn and wheat prices remains a material cost driver; a 10 % rise in corn price historically compresses margin by ~1.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Ingredient Solutions segment is benefitting from a **~15 % YoY increase in demand for plant-based protein ingredients**, reflecting broader consumer shifts toward flex-itarian diets.
Sector-level forces that shape MGPI’s outlook include: (1) **U.S. bourbon consumption**, which has grown at a compound annual rate of ~8 % over the past five years, bolstering premium-spirit pricing power; (2) **global grain price volatility**, which can swing the cost base for both alcohol and starch businesses; and (3) **regulatory trends favoring low-alcohol and “clean-label” products**, creating upside potential for the company’s food-grade alcohol and specialty ingredient lines. For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see ValueRay’s MGPI profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -15.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 56.46% < 20% (prev 60.95%; Δ -4.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 121.2m > Net Income -15.1m |
| Net Debt (266.8m) to EBITDA (29.1m): 9.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.4m) vs 12m ago -3.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.98% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 3858 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.09% > 50% (prev 51.21%; Δ -10.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.55 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 29.1m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m) |
Altman Z'' 4.18
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 510.8m - Total Current Liabilities 183.9m) / Total Assets 1.38b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 583.0m / Total Assets 1.38b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 11.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.41b) |
| D: 1.13 (Book Value of Equity 589.7m / Total Liabilities 523.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.18 = AA |
Beneish M -3.28
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 108.7m/134.4m, Revenue 578.9m/737.7m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 38.98% / 40.26%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.42) |
| SGI: 0.78 (Revenue 578.9m / 737.7m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -15.1m - CFO 121.2m) / TA 1.38b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.28 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MGPI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.46%, over one month by +7.80%, over three months by +6.38% and over the past year by -21.01%.
Is MGPI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MGPI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.8 | 32.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.8 | 32.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.8 | -13.4% |
MGPI Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.9164
P/B = 0.6252
P/EG = 1.1291
Revenue TTM = 578.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 11.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 29.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 262.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 280.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 266.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 797.2m USD (530.4m + Debt 280.2m - CCE 13.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 11.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m)
EV/FCF = 12.81x (Enterprise Value 797.2m / FCF TTM 62.2m)
FCF Yield = 7.80% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Enterprise Value 797.2m)
FCF Margin = 10.75% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Net Margin = -2.62% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Gross Margin = 38.98% ((Revenue TTM 578.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 353.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.76% (prev 40.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.58 (Enterprise Value 797.2m / Total Assets 1.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 1.74m / Debt 280.2m)
Taxrate = 21.70% (4.28m / 19.7m)
NOPAT = 9.11m (EBIT 11.6m * (1 - 21.70%))
Current Ratio = 2.78 (Total Current Assets 510.8m / Total Current Liabilities 183.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 280.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 855.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.16 (Net Debt 266.8m / EBITDA 29.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.29 (Net Debt 266.8m / FCF TTM 62.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 839.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.07% (Net Income -15.1m / Total Assets 1.38b)
RoE = -1.80% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 839.9m)
RoCE = 1.06% (EBIT 11.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 839.9m + L.T.Debt 262.3m))
RoIC = 0.80% (NOPAT 9.11m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 5.49% (E(530.4m)/V(810.6m) * Re(8.13%) + D(280.2m)/V(810.6m) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.59%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈54.4m ; Y1≈67.1m ; Y5≈114.2m
Fair Price DCF = 143.7 (EV 3.33b - Net Debt 266.8m = Equity 3.06b / Shares 21.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -49.78 | EPS CAGR: -52.44% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.89 | Revenue CAGR: -6.26% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-0.062 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.55 | Chg30d=-0.128 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-5.2% | Growth Revenue=-3.8%