MGPI Stock Analysis: MGP Ingredients | NASDAQ
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 363m USD | 12M Return: -44.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.55M
EPS Trend: -82.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a U.S.-based producer and supplier of distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients operating across three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. Its Distillery Solutions unit processes grains such as corn, rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food-grade alcohol and co-products like dried distillers grain, while also providing warehouse and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment markets a portfolio of bourbons, whiskeys, tequilas, gins, vodkas, and other spirits across premium, mid-tier, and value price tiers under brands including Penelope Bourbon, Yellowstone Bourbon, Remus Bourbon, Ezra Brooks Bourbon, El Mayor Tequila, Everclear, and The Quiet Man Irish Whiskey, alongside private label offerings.
The Ingredient Solutions segment supplies specialty wheat starches, wheat proteins, and gluten-free pea and soy proteins for food and industrial applications, selling directly or through distributors to manufacturers, processors, and bakeries. Founded in 1941 and headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company serves customers worldwide.
The distilled spirits industry relies heavily on long-term aging for aged categories such as bourbon and rye, which can require several years of barrel storage before products are ready for sale, creating significant working capital needs and long revenue recognition cycles. MGPs integrated model, spanning grain processing, alcohol production, and branded spirits, gives it exposure to both B2B ingredient customers and consumer-facing premium beverage trends.
- Premium bourbon portfolio drives Branded Spirits revenue growth
- Tequila category expansion through Dos Primos and El Mayor labels
- Distillery Solutions margins pressured by grain input cost volatility
- Ingredient Solutions benefits from specialty wheat starch demand
| Net Income: -239.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 61.61% < 20% (prev 51.07%; Δ 10.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 85.3m > Net Income -239.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.4m) vs 12m ago 0.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.39% > 18% (prev 40.76%; Δ -4.37% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.26% > 50% (prev 47.51%; Δ -4.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -40.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM -266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 6.61m) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 506.0m - Total Current Liabilities 185.0m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 308.3m / Total Assets 1.03b) |
| C: -0.22 (EBIT TTM -266.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.20b) |
| D: 1.29 (Book Value of Equity 581.3m / Total Liabilities 451.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.88 = A |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 86.8m/113.4m, Revenue 521.1m/654.7m) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 40.76% / 36.39%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 0.80 (Revenue 521.1m / 654.7m) |
| TATA: -0.32 (NI -239.6m - CFO 85.3m) / TA 1.03b) |
| Beneish M = -3.40 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.98 with a total of 202,400 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.85%, over one month by +2.85%, over three months by -10.84% and over the past year by -44.64%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.40 (which is 9.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
MGP Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MGPI.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28 | 64.9% |
P/E Forward = 11.3766
P/S = 0.6963
P/B = 0.6401
P/EG = 1.1291
Revenue TTM = 521.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -266.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -241.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 238.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 263.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 9.01m
Net Debt = 252.6m USD (calculated: Debt 263.0m - CCE 10.4m)
Enterprise Value = 615.5m USD (362.9m + Debt 263.0m - CCE 10.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -40.24 (Ebit TTM -266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 6.61m)
EV/FCF = 11.39x (Enterprise Value 615.5m / FCF TTM 54.0m)
FCF Yield = 8.78% (FCF TTM 54.0m / Enterprise Value 615.5m)
FCF Margin = 10.36% (FCF TTM 54.0m / Revenue TTM 521.1m)
Net Margin = -45.97% (Net Income TTM -239.6m / Revenue TTM 521.1m)
Gross Margin = 36.39% ((Revenue TTM 521.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 331.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.55% (prev 34.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 615.5m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.51% (Interest Expense 6.61m / Debt 263.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -210.2m (EBIT -266.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.74 (Total Current Assets 506.0m / Total Current Liabilities 185.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 263.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 581.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.05 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 252.6m / EBITDA -241.5m)
Debt / FCF = 4.68 (Net Debt 252.6m / FCF TTM 54.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 749.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -19.89% (Net Income -239.6m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = -31.98% (Net Income TTM -239.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 749.2m)
RoCE = -26.93% (EBIT -266.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 749.2m + L.T.Debt 238.6m))
RoIC = -24.95% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -210.2m / Invested Capital 842.4m)
WACC = 5.42% (E(362.9m)/V(625.9m) * Re(7.91%) + D(263.0m)/V(625.9m) * Rd(2.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.44 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.39% ; FCFF base≈55.7m ; Y1≈52.5m ; Y5≈49.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.38 (EV 773.7m - Net Debt 252.6m = Equity 521.1m / Shares 21.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -7.28% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -82.09 | EPS CAGR: -25.42% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.89 | Revenue CAGR: -16.70% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-43.1% | GrowthRev=-9.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+29.7% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=6, down=4)