(MGPI) MGP Ingredients - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 377m USD | Total Return: -38.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 3.05M
EPS Trend: -82.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Interest Coverage Ratio -40.4 is critical
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is a Kansas-based producer of distilled spirits and specialty food ingredients. The company operates through three primary segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. Its business model integrates the production of bulk food-grade alcohol with a diverse portfolio of owned brands ranging from value to ultra-premium price tiers, including labels such as Yellowstone and Penelope Bourbon.
The company also functions as a major contract distiller, providing aged whiskey and neutral spirits to other beverage brands that lack their own production capacity. In the food sector, MGPI focuses on functional wheat starches and proteins, catering to the growing demand for plant-based and fiber-enriched food applications. The Distillers & Vintners sub-industry often faces high capital requirements due to the long maturation periods necessary for premium brown spirits.
Investors may find ValueRay helpful for analyzing the underlying valuation metrics of this stock. MGPI distributes its products globally through a mix of direct sales and third-party distributors to reach consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retail markets.
- Shift toward high-margin branded spirits offsets declining bulk distillery solution volumes
- Premiumization of bourbon and rye portfolios drives sustainable long-term revenue growth
- Volatility in corn and wheat input costs impacts segment gross margins
- Strategic inventory management of aged whiskey barrels influences cash flow cycles
- Consumer demand for plant-based proteins supports specialty wheat ingredient sales expansion
| Net Income: -239.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 61.61% < 20% (prev 51.07%; Δ 10.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 85.3m > Net Income -239.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.4m) vs 12m ago 0.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.39% > 18% (prev 40.76%; Δ -4.37% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.26% > 50% (prev 47.51%; Δ -4.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -40.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM -267.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.61m) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 506.0m - Total Current Liabilities 185.0m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 308.3m / Total Assets 1.03b) |
| C: -0.22 (EBIT TTM -267.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.20b) |
| D: 1.29 (Book Value of Equity 581.3m / Total Liabilities 451.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.88 = A |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 86.8m/113.4m, Revenue 521.1m/654.7m) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 40.76% / 36.39%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 0.80 (Revenue 521.1m / 654.7m) |
| TATA: -0.32 (NI -239.6m - CFO 85.3m) / TA 1.03b) |
| Beneish M = -3.40 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.51 with a total of 120,402 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.46%,
over one month by -16.78%,
over three months by -11.06% and
over the past year by -38.46%.
MGP Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MGPI.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.4 | 72% |
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 0.7238
P/B = 0.6485
P/EG = 1.1291
Revenue TTM = 521.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -267.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -242.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 238.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 263.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 9.01m
Net Debt = 252.6m USD (calculated: Debt 263.0m - CCE 10.4m)
Enterprise Value = 629.8m USD (377.2m + Debt 263.0m - CCE 10.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -40.40 (Ebit TTM -267.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.61m)
EV/FCF = 11.66x (Enterprise Value 629.8m / FCF TTM 54.0m)
FCF Yield = 8.58% (FCF TTM 54.0m / Enterprise Value 629.8m)
FCF Margin = 10.36% (FCF TTM 54.0m / Revenue TTM 521.1m)
Net Margin = -45.97% (Net Income TTM -239.6m / Revenue TTM 521.1m)
Gross Margin = 36.39% ((Revenue TTM 521.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 331.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.55% (prev 34.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 629.8m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.51% (Interest Expense 6.61m / Debt 263.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -211.0m (EBIT -267.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.74 (Total Current Assets 506.0m / Total Current Liabilities 185.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 263.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 581.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.04 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 252.6m / EBITDA -242.5m)
Debt / FCF = 4.68 (Net Debt 252.6m / FCF TTM 54.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 748.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -19.89% (Net Income -239.6m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = -32.00% (Net Income TTM -239.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 748.8m)
RoCE = -27.05% (EBIT -267.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 748.8m + L.T.Debt 238.6m))
RoIC = -25.05% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -211.0m / Invested Capital 842.4m)
WACC = 5.55% (E(377.2m)/V(640.2m) * Re(8.03%) + D(263.0m)/V(640.2m) * Rd(2.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.44 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.39% ; FCFF base≈55.7m ; Y1≈52.5m ; Y5≈49.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.38 (EV 773.7m - Net Debt 252.6m = Equity 521.1m / Shares 21.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -7.28% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -82.09 | EPS CAGR: -25.42% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.89 | Revenue CAGR: -16.70% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+1.10% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-8.40% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=+2.17% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-43.1% | GrowthRev=-9.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+3.06% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+29.7% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25%