MGPI Stock Analysis: MGP Ingredients | NASDAQ
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 369m USD | 12M Return: -27.9% | US55303J1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.95M
EPS Trend: -94.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a U.S.-based producer of distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients operating through three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes grains such as corn, rye, barley, and wheat into food-grade alcohol and distillery co-products, while also offering warehouse and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment markets a portfolio of bourbons, rye whiskeys, tequila, gin, vodka, rum, and Irish cream liqueurs across premium, mid, and value tiers, along with private label offerings. The Ingredient Solutions segment supplies specialty wheat starches and proteins, gluten-free pea and soy proteins, and commodity wheat-based ingredients to food manufacturers and bakeries. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.
MGPI operates within the Consumer Staples sector (Distillers & Vintners sub-industry) and uses a vertically integrated business model, supplying bulk distilled spirits and ingredients to other manufacturers while also marketing its own consumer-facing branded spirits portfolio. Its Atchison, Kansas headquarters places it within the U.S. Midwest grain-producing region, an established hub for grain-based alcohol production.
- Premium bourbon portfolio expansion lifts Branded Spirits margins
- White whiskey supply contracts anchor Distillery Solutions revenue
- Corn and wheat cost volatility squeezes consolidated gross margins
| Net Income: -250.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 90.09% < 20% (prev 56.46%; Δ 33.63% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 20.2m > Net Income -250.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.91 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.5m) vs 12m ago 0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.65% > 18% (prev 38.98%; Δ -4.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.40% > 50% (prev 42.04%; Δ -1.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -30.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM -277.9m / Interest Expense TTM 9.22m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 513.0m - Total Current Liabilities 74.2m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| B: 0.31 (Retained Earnings 321.9m / Total Assets 1.03b) |
| C: -0.23 (EBIT TTM -277.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.21b) |
| D: 1.37 (Book Value of Equity 597.0m / Total Liabilities 437.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.68 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 94.6m/108.7m, Revenue 487.0m/578.9m) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 38.98% / 34.65%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 0.84 (Revenue 487.0m / 578.9m) |
| TATA: -0.26 (NI -250.5m - CFO 20.2m) / TA 1.03b) |
| Beneish M = -3.29 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.98 with a total of 188,011 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.84%, over one month by +32.97%, over three months by -1.20% and over the past year by -27.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.40 (which is 9.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
MGP Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MGPI.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 27 | 59% |
P/E Forward = 8.489
P/S = 0.757
P/B = 0.6003
P/EG = 1.1291
Revenue TTM = 487.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -277.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -252.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 334.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 355.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.32m
Net Debt = 342.3m USD (calculated: Debt 355.9m - CCE 13.6m)
Enterprise Value = 710.9m USD (368.7m + Debt 355.9m - CCE 13.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -30.15 (Ebit TTM -277.9m / Interest Expense TTM 9.22m)
EV/FCF = 1000.0x (Enterprise Value 710.9m / FCF TTM 527k)
FCF Yield = 0.07% (FCF TTM 527k / Enterprise Value 710.9m)
FCF Margin = 0.11% (FCF TTM 527k / Revenue TTM 487.0m)
Net Margin = -51.44% (Net Income TTM -250.5m / Revenue TTM 487.0m)
Gross Margin = 34.65% ((Revenue TTM 487.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 318.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.31% (prev 37.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 710.9m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.59% (Interest Expense 9.22m / Debt 355.9m)
Taxrate = 22.91% (2.05m / 8.94m)
NOPAT = -214.2m (EBIT -277.9m * (1 - 22.91%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.91 (Total Current Assets 513.0m / Total Current Liabilities 74.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.60 (Debt 355.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 597.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.36 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 342.3m / EBITDA -252.5m)
Debt / FCF = 649.5 (Net Debt 342.3m / FCF TTM 527k)
Total Stockholder Equity = 621.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -20.78% (Net Income -250.5m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = -40.29% (Net Income TTM -250.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 621.9m)
RoCE = -29.04% (EBIT -277.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 621.9m + L.T.Debt 334.8m))
RoIC = -22.48% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -214.2m / Invested Capital 952.6m)
WACC = 4.50% (E(368.7m)/V(724.6m) * Re(6.92%) + D(355.9m)/V(724.6m) * Rd(2.59%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -72.86 | Cagr: -1.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈25.2m ; Y1≈22.1m ; Y5≈17.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 286.6m - Net Debt 342.3m = -55.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -94.02 | EPS CAGR: -34.10% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -99.47 | Revenue CAGR: -19.37% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-13.60% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.67 | Chg30d=+0.85% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-41.5% | GrowthRev=-9.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=-3.05% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+14.3% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=3, down=8)