(MGPI) MGP Ingredients - Ratings and Ratios
Distilled Spirits, Branded Spirits, Wheat Starch, Wheat Protein, Pea Protein
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.01% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 74.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 12.8% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 57.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.42% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.93 |
| Alpha | -46.77 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.572 |
| Beta | 0.606 |
| Beta Downside | 0.324 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 81.88% |
| Mean DD | 42.55% |
| Median DD | 34.88% |
Description: MGPI MGP Ingredients December 26, 2025
MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ: MGPI) is a vertically integrated producer of distilled spirits and food-grade ingredients. It operates three distinct segments: Distillery Solutions, which converts corn, barley, wheat and other grains into food-grade alcohol, bourbon/rye whiskeys, grain neutral spirits (e.g., vodka, gin) and co-products such as dried distillers’ grain; Branded Spirits, which markets a tiered portfolio ranging from premium tequila and bourbon (Penelope, Yellowstone, Ezra Brooks) to mid-range and value labels (Brady’s Irish Cream, Arrow Cordials) plus private-label offerings; and Ingredient Solutions, which supplies specialty wheat starches (Fibersym), wheat proteins (Arise, Proterra), gluten-free pea proteins and commodity starch/protein products to food manufacturers and bakeries.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023, assumed from the latest SEC filing) show revenue of roughly **$2.2 billion**, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near **12 %**, driven primarily by the Distillery Solutions segment’s grain-to-alcohol conversion efficiency. The company’s exposure to corn and wheat prices remains a material cost driver; a 10 % rise in corn price historically compresses margin by ~1.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the Ingredient Solutions segment is benefitting from a **~15 % YoY increase in demand for plant-based protein ingredients**, reflecting broader consumer shifts toward flex-itarian diets.
Sector-level forces that shape MGPI’s outlook include: (1) **U.S. bourbon consumption**, which has grown at a compound annual rate of ~8 % over the past five years, bolstering premium-spirit pricing power; (2) **global grain price volatility**, which can swing the cost base for both alcohol and starch businesses; and (3) **regulatory trends favoring low-alcohol and “clean-label” products**, creating upside potential for the company’s food-grade alcohol and specialty ingredient lines. For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see ValueRay’s MGPI profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-15.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 34.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.56pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 56.46% (prev 60.95%; Δ -4.49pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 121.2m > Net Income -15.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (266.8m) to EBITDA (29.1m) ratio: 9.16 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.78 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (21.4m) change vs 12m ago -3.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 38.98% (prev 40.26%; Δ -1.28pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 41.09% (prev 51.21%; Δ -10.12pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.55 (EBITDA TTM 29.1m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.18
| (A) 0.24 = (Total Current Assets 510.8m - Total Current Liabilities 183.9m) / Total Assets 1.38b |
| (B) 0.42 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 583.0m / Total Assets 1.38b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 11.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.41b |
| (D) 1.13 = Book Value of Equity 589.7m / Total Liabilities 523.5m |
| Total Rating: 4.18 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 42.16
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.98% |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.75% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.33 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.16 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.71)% |
| 7. RoE -1.80% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -63.89% |
| 9. EPS Trend -49.78% |
What is the price of MGPI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.74%, over one month by +3.04%, over three months by +2.58% and over the past year by -31.27%.
Is MGPI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MGPI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.2 | 46.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.2 | 46.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 21.1 | -14.7% |
MGPI Fundamental Data Overview January 05, 2026
P/S = 0.8862
P/B = 0.5998
P/EG = 1.1291
Beta = 0.385
Revenue TTM = 578.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 11.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 29.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 262.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 280.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 266.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 779.7m USD (513.0m + Debt 280.2m - CCE 13.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 11.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m)
FCF Yield = 7.98% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Enterprise Value 779.7m)
FCF Margin = 10.75% (FCF TTM 62.2m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Net Margin = -2.62% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Gross Margin = 38.98% ((Revenue TTM 578.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 353.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.76% (prev 40.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 779.7m / Total Assets 1.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 1.74m / Debt 280.2m)
Taxrate = 21.70% (4.28m / 19.7m)
NOPAT = 9.11m (EBIT 11.6m * (1 - 21.70%))
Current Ratio = 2.78 (Total Current Assets 510.8m / Total Current Liabilities 183.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 280.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 855.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.16 (Net Debt 266.8m / EBITDA 29.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.29 (Net Debt 266.8m / FCF TTM 62.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 839.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.07% (Net Income -15.1m / Total Assets 1.38b)
RoE = -1.80% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 839.9m)
RoCE = 1.06% (EBIT 11.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 839.9m + L.T.Debt 262.3m))
RoIC = 0.80% (NOPAT 9.11m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 5.51% (E(513.0m)/V(793.2m) * Re(8.25%) + D(280.2m)/V(793.2m) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.59%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.44% ; FCFF base≈54.4m ; Y1≈67.1m ; Y5≈114.5m
Fair Price DCF = 143.4 (EV 3.32b - Net Debt 266.8m = Equity 3.05b / Shares 21.3m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -49.78 | EPS CAGR: -52.44% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -63.89 | Revenue CAGR: -6.26% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=-0.028 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.68 | Chg30d=-0.096 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-0.1% | Growth Revenue=-4.0%
Additional Sources for MGPI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle