MGPI Stock Analysis: MGP Ingredients | NASDAQ

Distilled Spirits, Branded Spirits, Food Ingredients, Wheat Proteins

Total Rating 30

Safety 73

Buy Signal -1.07

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Industry Rotation: -16.5

Market Cap: 356M
Avg Turnover: 3.08M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility40.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.76%

VaR vs Median2.46%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-1.18

Rel. Str. IBD7.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group5.8

Character TTM

Beta0.507

Beta Downside1.139

Hurst Exponent0.535

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD85.53%

CAGR/Max DD-0.55

CAGR/Mean DD-0.84

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -27.95%
EPS Trend: -88.8%

Last SUE: 1.96
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -18.51%
Rev. Trend: -98.5%

Last SUE: 0.22
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Choppy

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -8.2% 18

Feb -0.6% 13

Mar -1.0% 14

Apr +0.4% 13

May -2.8% 15

Jun -1.2% 14

Jul +0.5% 8

Aug +0.5% 11

Sep -4.7% 27

Oct -4.1% 9

Nov +4.2% 23

Dec +1.5% 8

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MGPI MGP Ingredients

MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a U.S.-based producer and supplier of distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients operating across three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. Its Distillery Solutions unit processes grains such as corn, rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food-grade alcohol and co-products like dried distillers grain, while also providing warehouse and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment markets a portfolio of bourbons, whiskeys, tequilas, gins, vodkas, and other spirits across premium, mid-tier, and value price tiers under brands including Penelope Bourbon, Yellowstone Bourbon, Remus Bourbon, Ezra Brooks Bourbon, El Mayor Tequila, Everclear, and The Quiet Man Irish Whiskey, alongside private label offerings.

The Ingredient Solutions segment supplies specialty wheat starches, wheat proteins, and gluten-free pea and soy proteins for food and industrial applications, selling directly or through distributors to manufacturers, processors, and bakeries. Founded in 1941 and headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company serves customers worldwide.

The distilled spirits industry relies heavily on long-term aging for aged categories such as bourbon and rye, which can require several years of barrel storage before products are ready for sale, creating significant working capital needs and long revenue recognition cycles. MGPs integrated model, spanning grain processing, alcohol production, and branded spirits, gives it exposure to both B2B ingredient customers and consumer-facing premium beverage trends.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Premium bourbon portfolio drives Branded Spirits revenue growth
Tequila category expansion through Dos Primos and El Mayor labels
Distillery Solutions margins pressured by grain input cost volatility
Ingredient Solutions benefits from specialty wheat starch demand

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 0.0

Net Income: -242.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.18 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 91.67% < 20% (prev 56.06%; Δ 35.61% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 24.4m > Net Income -242.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 6.99 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.4m) vs 12m ago 0.42% < -2%
Gross Margin: 35.55% > 18% (prev 39.71%; Δ -4.16% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 40.92% > 50% (prev 43.97%; Δ -3.05% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -35.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM -267.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m)

Altman Z'' 3.68

A: 0.43 (Total Current Assets 534.8m - Total Current Liabilities 76.5m) / Total Assets 1.06b
B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 317.7m / Total Assets 1.06b)
C: -0.22 (EBIT TTM -267.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.22b)
D: 1.27 (Book Value of Equity 590.8m / Total Liabilities 466.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.68 = AA

Beneish M -3.29

DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 103.6m/117.5m, Revenue 500.0m/609.4m)
GMI: 1.12 (GM 39.71% / 35.55%)
AQI: 0.54 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.38)
SGI: 0.82 (Revenue 500.0m / 609.4m)
TATA: -0.25 (NI -242.0m - CFO 24.4m) / TA 1.06b)
Beneish M = -3.29 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of MGPI shares?

As of September 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.34 with a total of 236,436 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.37%, over one month by -4.92%, over three months by +0.97% and over the past year by -42.63%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.40 (which is 5.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is MGPI a buy, sell or hold?

MGP Ingredients has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MGPI.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 1
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MGPI price?

Analysts Target Price	27.8	70.1%

MGP Ingredients (MGPI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 02 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 355.7m (355.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 12.2399
P/S = 0.7114
P/B = 0.5901
P/EG = 1.1291
Revenue TTM = 500.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -267.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -242.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 363.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 385.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.17m
Net Debt = 368.1m USD (calculated: Debt 385.9m - CCE 17.8m)
Enterprise Value = 723.8m USD (355.7m + Debt 385.9m - CCE 17.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -35.24 (Ebit TTM -267.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m)
EV/FCF = 815.1x (Enterprise Value 723.8m / FCF TTM 888k)
FCF Yield = 0.12% (FCF TTM 888k / Enterprise Value 723.8m)
FCF Margin = 0.18% (FCF TTM 888k / Revenue TTM 500.0m)
Net Margin = -48.40% (Net Income TTM -242.0m / Revenue TTM 500.0m)
Gross Margin = 35.55% ((Revenue TTM 500.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 322.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.37% (prev 31.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 723.8m / Total Assets 1.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.97% (Interest Expense 7.59m / Debt 385.9m)
Taxrate = 20.32% (3.06m / 15.1m)
NOPAT = -213.2m (EBIT -267.6m * (1 - 20.32%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.99 (Total Current Assets 534.8m / Total Current Liabilities 76.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 385.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 590.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.52 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 368.1m / EBITDA -242.5m)
Debt / FCF = 414.6 (Net Debt 368.1m / FCF TTM 888k)
Total Stockholder Equity = 686.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -19.81% (Net Income -242.0m / Total Assets 1.06b)
RoE = -35.26% (Net Income TTM -242.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 686.4m)
RoCE = -25.49% (EBIT -267.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 686.4m + L.T.Debt 363.2m))
RoIC = -21.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -213.2m / Invested Capital 969.9m)
WACC = 4.54% (E(355.7m)/V(741.6m) * Re(7.77%) + D(385.9m)/V(741.6m) * Rd(1.97%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.26 | Cagr: -1.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈24.2m ; Y1≈21.2m ; Y5≈17.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 275.0m - Net Debt 368.1m = -93.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -88.83 | EPS CAGR: -27.95% | SUE: 1.96 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -98.45 | Revenue CAGR: -18.51% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-33.20% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.65 | Chg30d=+1.98% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-42.0% | GrowthRev=-9.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.96 | Chg30d=-6.59% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)