(MGPI) MGP Ingredients - Ratings and Ratios
Distilled Spirits, Branded Spirits, Wheat Starches, Wheat Proteins
MGPI EPS (Earnings per Share)
MGPI Revenue
Description: MGPI MGP Ingredients October 23, 2025
MGP Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: MGPI) is a vertically integrated producer of distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food-grade ingredients, organized into three operating segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions.
In Distillery Solutions, the company converts corn, barley, wheat, malt and milo into food-grade alcohol and co-products such as dried distillers’ grain, while also offering warehouse and blending services for bourbon, rye, grain neutral spirits, vodka and gin. This segment benefits from the steady demand for both beverage-grade alcohol and high-protein animal feed, linking its performance to commodity grain prices and the broader ethanol market.
The Branded Spirits segment markets a tiered portfolio ranging from premium-plus tequilas (e.g., El Mayor) and ultra-premium bourbons (e.g., Penelope, Yellowstone) to value-oriented brands (e.g., Arrow Cordials). Recent earnings releases show a 12% YoY increase in premium-segment sales, reflecting strong consumer migration toward higher-priced, craft-style spirits.
Ingredient Solutions supplies specialty wheat starches (Fibersym), wheat proteins (Arise, Proterra), and gluten-free pea proteins to food manufacturers and bakeries. The segment’s growth is tied to the rising demand for functional ingredients in clean-label and plant-based products, a trend that has driven a 9% CAGR in the U.S. specialty starch market over the past three years.
Key financial snapshots: FY 2023 revenue of $1.33 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of ~15%, and a cash conversion ratio of 0.8×, indicating solid operational cash generation. The company’s exposure to grain commodity cycles and premium-spirit consumption trends are primary drivers of earnings volatility.
For a deeper dive into MGPI’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, you might find ValueRay’s analytics platform worth a look.
MGPI Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 515m |
| Sub-Industry | Distillers & Vintners |
| IPO / Inception | 1988-10-20 |
MGPI Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -76.0% |
| Fundamental | 40.3% |
| Dividend Rating | 28.8% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -54.0% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.50 of 5 |
MGPI Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 1.89% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.27% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 76.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 12.8% |
MGPI Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -80.2% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -86% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -25.1% |
| CAGR 5y | -39.13% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | -0.48 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | -0.94 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -2.21 |
| Alpha | -54.30 |
| Beta | 0.359 |
| Volatility | 34.47% |
| Current Volume | 267k |
| Average Volume 20d | 232.9k |
| Stop Loss | 24.4 (-3.7%) |
| Signal | 0.57 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-15.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 34.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 56.46% (prev 60.95%; Δ -4.49pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 129.1m > Net Income -15.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (200.5m) to EBITDA (22.5m) ratio: 8.91 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.78 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (21.4m) change vs 12m ago -3.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 38.98% (prev 40.26%; Δ -1.28pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 41.09% (prev 51.21%; Δ -10.12pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -1.30 (EBITDA TTM 22.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.06
| (A) 0.24 = (Total Current Assets 510.8m - Total Current Liabilities 183.9m) / Total Assets 1.38b |
| (B) 0.42 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 583.0m / Total Assets 1.38b |
| (C) -0.01 = EBIT TTM -9.80m / Avg Total Assets 1.41b |
| (D) 1.11 = Book Value of Equity 583.0m / Total Liabilities 523.5m |
| Total Rating: 4.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 40.32
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.26% = 4.13 |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.21% = 2.55 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.25 = 2.47 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 8.91 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.05)% = -7.56 |
| 7. RoE -1.80% = -0.30 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -81.59% = -6.12 |
| 9. EPS Trend -27.12% = -1.36 |
What is the price of MGPI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.75%, over one month by +5.93%, over three months by -8.95% and over the past year by -47.60%.
Is MGP Ingredients a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MGPI is around 20.09 USD . This means that MGPI is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -20.75%.
Is MGPI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MGPI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 38.2 | 50.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 38.2 | 50.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 21.8 | -14.1% |
MGPI Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025
P/E Forward = 8.881
P/S = 0.8899
P/B = 0.6245
P/EG = 1.1291
Beta = 0.359
Revenue TTM = 578.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -9.80m USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 317.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.40m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 214.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 200.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 715.6m USD (515.1m + Debt 214.0m - CCE 13.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.30 (Ebit TTM -9.80m / Interest Expense TTM 7.53m)
FCF Yield = 8.26% (FCF TTM 59.1m / Enterprise Value 715.6m)
FCF Margin = 10.21% (FCF TTM 59.1m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Net Margin = -2.62% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Revenue TTM 578.9m)
Gross Margin = 38.98% ((Revenue TTM 578.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 353.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.76% (prev 40.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.52 (Enterprise Value 715.6m / Total Assets 1.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.81% (Interest Expense 1.74m / Debt 214.0m)
Taxrate = 21.70% (4.28m / 19.7m)
NOPAT = -7.68m (EBIT -9.80m * (1 - 21.70%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.78 (Total Current Assets 510.8m / Total Current Liabilities 183.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 214.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 855.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.91 (Net Debt 200.5m / EBITDA 22.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.39 (Net Debt 200.5m / FCF TTM 59.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 839.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.10% (Net Income -15.1m / Total Assets 1.38b)
RoE = -1.80% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 839.9m)
RoCE = -0.85% (EBIT -9.80m / Capital Employed (Equity 839.9m + L.T.Debt 317.1m))
RoIC = -0.67% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -7.68m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 5.37% (E(515.1m)/V(729.1m) * Re(7.34%) + D(214.0m)/V(729.1m) * Rd(0.81%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.59%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.25% ; FCFE base≈49.3m ; Y1≈52.8m ; Y5≈64.2m
Fair Price DCF = 52.66 (DCF Value 1.12b / Shares Outstanding 21.3m; 5y FCF grow 7.88% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -27.12 | EPS CAGR: -6.08% | SUE: 0.81 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -81.59 | Revenue CAGR: -12.83% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for MGPI Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle