MLCO Stock Analysis: Melco Resorts | NASDAQ
Resorts & Casinos | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.132m USD | 12M Return: -40.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.7M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 86.9%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO) is a Hong Kong-based operator of integrated casino resorts with a geographically diversified footprint spanning Macau, the Philippines, Cyprus, and Sri Lanka. Its core Macau assets include City of Dreams and Studio City, both large-scale integrated resorts in Cotai, as well as Altira Macau in Taipa and the Mocha Clubs gaming machine venues. Internationally, the company operates City of Dreams Manila in the Philippines, City of Dreams Mediterranean in Cyprus (along with three satellite casinos), and is expanding into Sri Lanka through the City of Dreams Sri Lanka project. The business model is centered on integrated resorts, which combine gaming with hotels, dining, retail, and entertainment under one roof-a structure designed to drive non-gaming revenue and broaden customer appeal beyond pure casino play.
Founded in 2003 and listed on NASDAQ since 2006, Melco is a subsidiary of Melco Leisure and Entertainment Group Limited and was previously known as Melco Crown Entertainment. As a player in the global Casinos & Gaming sub-industry, Melco is particularly exposed to the Macau market, which is the worlds largest gaming hub by revenue and remains subject to concession terms and government policy set by Macau and mainland Chinese authorities.
- Macau mass market gaming recovery accelerates post-COVID visitation rebound
- Studio City VIP rebound lifts Cotai revenue and segment margins
- Chinese tourist arrivals and policy easing drive Macau gross gaming revenue higher
| Net Income: 229.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.41% < 20% (prev 5.03%; Δ -9.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 818.1m > Net Income 229.6m |
| Net Debt (6.26b) to EBITDA (1.20b): 5.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (393.5m) vs 12m ago -5.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.20% > 18% (prev 36.20%; Δ -2.00% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.30% > 50% (prev 60.20%; Δ 9.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 654.6m / Interest Expense TTM 463.9m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 1.43b) / Total Assets 7.40b |
| B: -0.51 (Retained Earnings -3.75b / Total Assets 7.40b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 654.6m / Avg Total Assets 7.65b) |
| D: -0.15 (Book Value of Equity -1.22b / Total Liabilities 8.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.44 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 141.2m/126.9m, Revenue 5.30b/4.76b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 36.20% / 34.20%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 5.30b / 4.76b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 229.6m - CFO 818.1m) / TA 7.40b) |
| Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.26 with a total of 2,705,323 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.19%, over one month by -3.31%, over three months by -11.60% and over the past year by -40.83%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.90 (which is 6.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Melco Resorts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.93. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MLCO.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 7.9 | 49.6% |
P/E Trailing = 9.4655
P/E Forward = 9.6432
P/S = 0.4024
P/B = 103.7792
P/EG = 0.3645
Revenue TTM = 5.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 654.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.32b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 397.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 265.5m
Net Debt = 6.26b USD (calculated: Debt 7.20b - CCE 942.4m)
Enterprise Value = 8.39b USD (2.13b + Debt 7.20b - CCE 942.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.41 (Ebit TTM 654.6m / Interest Expense TTM 463.9m)
EV/FCF = 17.63x (Enterprise Value 8.39b / FCF TTM 476.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.67% (FCF TTM 476.1m / Enterprise Value 8.39b)
FCF Margin = 8.98% (FCF TTM 476.1m / Revenue TTM 5.30b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Revenue TTM 5.30b)
Gross Margin = 34.20% ((Revenue TTM 5.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.49b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.23% (prev 36.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.13 (Enterprise Value 8.39b / Total Assets 7.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.44% (Interest Expense 463.9m / Debt 7.20b)
Taxrate = 2.76% (5.36m / 194.2m)
NOPAT = 636.6m (EBIT 654.6m * (1 - 2.76%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 1.43b)
Debt / Equity = -5.91 (negative equity) (Debt 7.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.21 (Net Debt 6.26b / EBITDA 1.20b)
Debt / FCF = 13.15 (Net Debt 6.26b / FCF TTM 476.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.00% (Net Income 229.6m / Total Assets 7.40b)
RoE = -17.64% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Total Stockholder Equity -1.30b)
RoCE = 13.03% (EBIT 654.6m / Capital Employed (Equity -1.30b + L.T.Debt 6.32b))
RoIC = 10.44% (NOPAT 636.6m / Invested Capital 6.10b)
WACC = 7.18% (E(2.13b)/V(9.34b) * Re(10.30%) + D(7.20b)/V(9.34b) * Rd(6.44%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 10.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.16 | Cagr: -4.57%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈415.9m ; Y1≈476.7m ; Y5≈701.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.06 (EV 10.6b - Net Debt 6.26b = Equity 4.30b / Shares 388.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.78 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 86.93 | Revenue CAGR: 27.63% | SUE: 1.72 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-42.86% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=-13.33% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+6.58% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-15.6% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.84 | Chg30d=+11.65% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+41.0% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=4, down=4)