(MLCO) Melco Resorts - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Resorts & Casinos | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.062m USD | Total Return: -13.3% in 12m
Industry Rotation: +2.8
Avg Turnover: 9.51M
EPS Trend: 81.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 81.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (5.0) with thin interest coverage (1.4)
Altman Z'' -1.78 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO) develops and operates integrated casino and hospitality facilities across Macau, the Philippines, and Cyprus. Its primary assets include the City of Dreams, Studio City, and Altira Macau properties, which combine gaming floors with luxury lodging, retail, and entertainment venues. The company also manages Mocha Clubs electronic gaming machines and is expanding its footprint into Sri Lanka.
The integrated resort business model relies on high-margin non-gaming revenue, such as luxury retail and hospitality, to complement the volatile gaming sector. In Macau, the world’s largest gaming hub by revenue, operators are increasingly required to invest in non-gaming attractions to maintain government concessions. You can further evaluate these regional regulatory impacts and revenue trends at ValueRay.
Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Hong Kong, the company functions as a subsidiary of Melco Leisure and Entertainment Group Limited. Its diverse geographic presence helps mitigate the regulatory and economic risks associated with a single gaming jurisdiction.
- Macau mass market gaming recovery dictates core revenue and margin expansion
- High debt leverage makes interest rate fluctuations a significant volatility factor
- Geopolitical tensions and China visa policy changes impact mainland visitor volume
- Expansion into Cyprus and Sri Lanka diversifies revenue beyond the Macau market
- Regulatory oversight and gaming license renewal terms affect long-term valuation multiples
| Net Income: 229.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.41% < 20% (prev 5.03%; Δ -9.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 818.1m > Net Income 229.6m |
| Net Debt (6.00b) to EBITDA (1.19b): 5.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (393.5m) vs 12m ago -5.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.20% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3.38k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.30% > 50% (prev 60.20%; Δ 9.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.39 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.19b / Interest Expense TTM 463.9m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 1.43b) / Total Assets 7.40b |
| B: -0.51 (Retained Earnings -3.75b / Total Assets 7.40b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 643.3m / Avg Total Assets 7.65b) |
| D: -0.46 (Book Value of Equity -3.85b / Total Liabilities 8.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.78 = D |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 141.2m/126.9m, Revenue 5.30b/4.76b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 34.20% / 36.20%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 5.30b / 4.76b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 229.6m - CFO 818.1m) / TA 7.40b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.42%, over one month by -7.56%, over three months by -2.14% and over the past year by -13.25%.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 8.7 | 57.3% |
P/E Forward = 9.4162
P/S = 0.3892
P/B = 103.7792
P/EG = 0.3559
Revenue TTM = 5.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 643.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.19b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.32b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 397.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.94b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.00b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.06b USD (2.06b + Debt 6.94b - CCE 942.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.39 (Ebit TTM 643.3m / Interest Expense TTM 463.9m)
EV/FCF = 16.92x (Enterprise Value 8.06b / FCF TTM 476.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.91% (FCF TTM 476.1m / Enterprise Value 8.06b)
FCF Margin = 8.98% (FCF TTM 476.1m / Revenue TTM 5.30b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Revenue TTM 5.30b)
Gross Margin = 34.20% ((Revenue TTM 5.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.49b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.23% (prev 36.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 8.06b / Total Assets 7.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 113.9m / Debt 6.94b)
Taxrate = 9.13% (7.14m / 78.2m)
NOPAT = 584.6m (EBIT 643.3m * (1 - 9.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 1.43b)
Debt / Equity = -5.69 (negative equity) (Debt 6.94b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.04 (Net Debt 6.00b / EBITDA 1.19b)
Debt / FCF = 12.59 (Net Debt 6.00b / FCF TTM 476.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.00% (Net Income 229.6m / Total Assets 7.40b)
RoE = -17.64% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Total Stockholder Equity -1.30b)
RoCE = 12.81% (EBIT 643.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -1.30b + L.T.Debt 6.32b))
RoIC = 10.29% (NOPAT 584.6m / Invested Capital 5.68b)
WACC = 3.51% (E(2.06b)/V(9.00b) * Re(10.29%) + D(6.94b)/V(9.00b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 10.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.90 | Cagr: -4.57%
[DCF] Terminal Value 88.44% ; FCFF base≈415.9m ; Y1≈513.0m ; Y5≈875.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.95 (EV 25.39b - Net Debt 6.00b = Equity 19.40b / Shares 388.3m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 81.00 | EPS CAGR: 111.2% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 81.57 | Revenue CAGR: 50.48% | SUE: 1.72 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-6.67% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+8.18% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=-13.4% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+7.57% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+40.4% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%