(MLYS) Mineralys Therapeutics - Overview
Stock: Aldosterone Synthase Inhibitor, Hypertension, Cardiorenal
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.35 |
| Alpha | 182.65 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.295 |
| Beta Downside | -0.339 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 68.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.25 |
Description: MLYS Mineralys Therapeutics January 19, 2026
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is a U.S.-based, clinical-stage biotech that focuses on diseases driven by excess aldosterone. The firm, incorporated in 2019 and headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania, rebranded from Catalys SC1 in May 2020.
The company’s sole product candidate, **lorundrostat**, is an oral, highly selective aldosterone-synthase inhibitor. It is currently in Phase 2 for hypertensive patients with stage 2–3b chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is being positioned for a pivotal trial in uncontrolled or resistant hypertension.
Key market and sector metrics that shape MLYS’s upside include: (1) the U.S. hypertension market, valued at roughly **$130 billion** in 2023 and projected to grow modestly with an aging population; (2) CKD affecting **≈15 %** of U.S. adults, creating a sizable patient pool for a disease-modifying therapy; and (3) biotech cash-burn trends, where companies with < $40 million of cash on hand-Mineralys reported **≈$32 million** at the end of Q4 2023-typically need to secure additional financing or achieve a major trial read-out within 12-18 months to avoid dilution.
Given the high unmet need for more effective aldosterone-targeted treatments and the company’s early-stage pipeline, the stock’s valuation is highly sensitive to Phase 2 data and the ability to raise capital on favorable terms.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of MLYS’s risk-return profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -171.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.29 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 19.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.29 > 3% & CFO -171.4m > Net Income -171.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 25.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.6m) vs 12m ago 41.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.01% > 50% (prev 0.0%; Δ 0.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -21.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -179.8m / Interest Expense TTM -8.53m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.96 (Total Current Assets 599.8m - Total Current Liabilities 23.5m) / Total Assets 599.9m |
| B: -0.71 (Retained Earnings -424.9m / Total Assets 599.9m) |
| C: -0.41 (EBIT TTM -179.9m / Avg Total Assets 434.1m) |
| D: -18.07 (Book Value of Equity -424.9m / Total Liabilities 23.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -17.76 = D |
What is the price of MLYS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.63%, over one month by -16.63%, over three months by -19.56% and over the past year by +196.22%.
Is MLYS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MLYS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 50.9 | 70.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 50.9 | 70.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.3 | 1.8% |
MLYS Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
Revenue TTM = 34.0k USD
EBIT TTM = -179.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -179.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = unknown
Net Debt = -217.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.23b USD (2.44b + (null Debt) - CCE 217.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -21.09 (Ebit TTM -179.9m / Interest Expense TTM -8.53m)
EV/FCF = -13.00x (Enterprise Value 2.23b / FCF TTM -171.4m)
FCF Yield = -7.70% (FCF TTM -171.4m / Enterprise Value 2.23b)
FCF Margin = -504.0k% (FCF TTM -171.4m / Revenue TTM 34.0k)
Net Margin = -504.0k% (Net Income TTM -171.4m / Revenue TTM 34.0k)
Gross Margin = -85.29% ((Revenue TTM 34.0k - Cost of Revenue TTM 63.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.71 (Enterprise Value 2.23b / Total Assets 599.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = unknown (Interest Expense 1.68m / Debt none)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -142.1m (EBIT -179.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 25.50 (Total Current Assets 599.8m / Total Current Liabilities 23.5m)
Debt / Equity = unknown (Debt none)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.21 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -217.6m / EBITDA -179.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.27 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -217.6m / FCF TTM -171.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 355.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -39.48% (Net Income -171.4m / Total Assets 599.9m)
RoE = -48.18% (Net Income TTM -171.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 355.7m)
RoCE = -31.21% (EBIT -179.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 599.9m - Current Liab 23.5m))
RoIC = -39.95% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -142.1m / Invested Capital 355.7m)
WACC = 7.00% (E(2.44b)/V(2.44b) * Re(7.0%) + (debt-free company))
Discount Rate = 7.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 32.69%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -171.4m)
EPS Correlation: 34.73 | EPS CAGR: 201.3% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 25.21 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.52 | Chg30d=+0.022 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.23 | Chg30d=+0.078 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+6.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%