MOMO Stock Analysis: Hello | NASDAQ
Internet Content & Information | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 891m USD | 12M Return: -28.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.28M
EPS Trend: -92.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -96.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO) is a Beijing-based company that provides mobile-based social and entertainment services primarily in the Peoples Republic of China, with additional international operations. The company is structured around three reportable segments-Momo, Tantan, and QOOL-and operates a portfolio of apps including Momo (a location-based social platform featuring livestreams, short video, karaoke, and interactive shows), Tantan (a dating application), and secondary brands such as Hertz, Soulchill, Happn, and Duidui. The business was founded in 2011, went public on NASDAQ in December 2014, and was renamed from Momo Inc. to Hello Group Inc. in August 2021.
The company generates revenue across several streams, including livestreaming, value-added services, advertising and marketing solutions, and mobile games. Within Chinas broader interactive media sector, live video services such as those offered by Momo typically rely on a virtual gifting model, in which viewers purchase digital items to send to broadcasters during live sessions-a monetization approach widely used across Chinese livestreaming platforms. The company is classified under the GICS Communication Services sector and the Interactive Media & Services sub-industry, and is currently a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $826 million USD.
- Live video revenue pressured by tightening Chinese content regulations
- Tantan dating app user growth slows amid rising domestic competition
- Share buybacks continue to support earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 737.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 72.89% < 20% (prev 49.42%; Δ 23.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.10b > Net Income 737.1m |
| Net Debt (-8.41b) to EBITDA (1.77b): -4.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (160.7m) vs 12m ago -7.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.03% > 18% (prev 38.11%; Δ -0.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.31% > 50% (prev 62.91%; Δ 4.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 40.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.68b / Interest Expense TTM 41.8m) |
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 9.68b - Total Current Liabilities 2.23b) / Total Assets 13.7b |
| B: 0.52 (Retained Earnings 7.10b / Total Assets 13.7b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.68b / Avg Total Assets 15.2b) |
| D: 3.79 (Book Value of Equity 10.8b / Total Liabilities 2.85b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 9.99 = AAA |
| DSRI: 2.00 (Receivables 432.9m/222.2m, Revenue 10.2b/10.5b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 38.11% / 38.03%) |
| AQI: 0.56 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 10.2b / 10.5b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 737.1m - CFO 1.10b) / TA 13.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.48 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.12 with a total of 731,374 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.17%, over one month by +5.70%, over three months by +3.38% and over the past year by -28.53%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.70 (which is 6.9% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Hello has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MOMO.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 8.6 | 40.7% |
Market Cap CNY = 6.04b (890.9m USD * 6.777 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 9.1364
P/E Forward = 4.4326
P/S = 0.0871
P/B = 0.5562
P/EG = 0.8864
Revenue TTM = 10.2b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.68b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 1.77b CNY
Long Term Debt = 2.32m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 60.7m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 90.4m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 86.5m already included)
Net Debt = -8.41b CNY (calculated: Debt 90.4m - CCE 8.50b)
Enterprise Value = 6.04b CNY (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 40.11 (Ebit TTM 1.68b / Interest Expense TTM 41.8m)
EV/FCF = 9.69x (Enterprise Value 6.04b / FCF TTM 622.9m)
FCF Yield = 10.32% (FCF TTM 622.9m / Enterprise Value 6.04b)
FCF Margin = 6.09% (FCF TTM 622.9m / Revenue TTM 10.2b)
Net Margin = 7.20% (Net Income TTM 737.1m / Revenue TTM 10.2b)
Gross Margin = 38.03% ((Revenue TTM 10.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.67% (prev 37.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 6.04b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 46.27% (Interest Expense 41.8m / Debt 90.4m)
Taxrate = 21.50% (79.8m / 371.4m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.68b * (1 - 21.50%))
Current Ratio = 4.35 (Total Current Assets 9.68b / Total Current Liabilities 2.23b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 90.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.76 (Net Debt -8.41b / EBITDA 1.77b)
Debt / FCF = -13.50 (Net Debt -8.41b / FCF TTM 622.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.85% (Net Income 737.1m / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 6.72% (Net Income TTM 737.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.0b)
RoCE = 15.28% (EBIT 1.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.0b + L.T.Debt 2.32m))
RoIC = 11.98% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 11.0b)
WACC = 9.14% (E(6.04b)/V(6.13b) * Re(8.73%) + D(90.4m)/V(6.13b) * Rd(46.27%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.99 | Cagr: -8.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.20% ; FCFF base≈857.9m ; Y1≈752.3m ; Y5≈607.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 158.5 (EV 8.64b - Net Debt -8.41b = Equity 17.0b / Shares 107.6m; r=9.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -92.84 | EPS CAGR: -37.08% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -96.09 | Revenue CAGR: -7.28% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=-3.14% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.69 | Chg30d=-3.65% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.83 | Chg30d=+4.03% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+16.4% | GrowthRev=-2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.24 | Chg30d=+1.62% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+5.9% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)