MRNA Stock Analysis: Moderna | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 27.089m USD | 12M Return: 92% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 606M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -97.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Moderna, Inc. is a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company founded in 2010 that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines, operating in the United States, Europe, and other international markets. Its pipeline spans respiratory vaccines (including Spikevax, mRESVIA, and candidates targeting COVID, RSV, and influenza), latent and public health vaccines (such as cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, HIV, Zika, and Nipah), oncology therapeutics (including intismeran autogene), and rare disease programs (such as propionic and methylmalonic acidemia). The company was renamed from Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018 and trades as a large-cap stock on NASDAQ following its December 2018 IPO.
The companys mRNA platform represents a programmable approach to drug development, in which synthetic mRNA instructs cells to produce targeted proteins, enabling rapid design across infectious disease, oncology, and rare disease applications. Moderna maintains a network of strategic partnerships-including collaborations with Merck & Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and OpenAI, as well as U.S. government agencies such as DARPA and BARDA-which is typical within the biotechnology sector, where external funding and co-development agreements are commonly used to advance pipeline assets and share development risk.
- Spikevax COVID vaccine revenue declines as pandemic demand normalizes
- mRESVIA RSV vaccine competes with Pfizer and GSK
- Cost reduction program targets return to profitability by 2026
| Net Income: -3.19b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 151.7% < 20% (prev 164.4%; Δ -12.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.13 > 3% & CFO -1.45b > Net Income -3.19b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (395.0m) vs 12m ago 2.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -13.89% > 18% (prev 53.55%; Δ -67.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.39% > 50% (prev 24.71%; Δ -6.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -120.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM -3.12b / Interest Expense TTM 26.0m) |
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 5.77b - Total Current Liabilities 2.40b) / Total Assets 11.5b |
| B: 0.51 (Retained Earnings 5.88b / Total Assets 11.5b) |
| C: -0.26 (EBIT TTM -3.12b / Avg Total Assets 12.1b) |
| D: 1.82 (Book Value of Equity 7.41b / Total Liabilities 4.08b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.77 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 147.0m/306.0m, Revenue 2.23b/3.14b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 0.71 (Revenue 2.23b / 3.14b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -3.19b - CFO -1.45b) / TA 11.5b) |
| Beneish M = -3.46 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 61.82 with a total of 4,468,505 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.45%, over one month by +0.03%, over three months by +15.08% and over the past year by +91.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 52.80 (which is 14.6% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Moderna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.22. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MRNA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 47.9 | -22.5% |
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 12.1747
P/B = 3.6567
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.88b USD
Long Term Debt = 590.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.01b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 708.0m
Net Debt = -3.20b USD (calculated: Debt 2.01b - CCE 5.21b)
Enterprise Value = 23.9b USD (27.1b + Debt 2.01b - CCE 5.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -120.0 (Ebit TTM -3.12b / Interest Expense TTM 26.0m)
EV/FCF = -15.10x (Enterprise Value 23.9b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
FCF Yield = -6.62% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Enterprise Value 23.9b)
FCF Margin = -71.10% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -143.6% (Net Income TTM -3.19b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = -13.89% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -145.5% (prev 33.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.08 (Enterprise Value 23.9b / Total Assets 11.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.30% (Interest Expense 26.0m / Debt 2.01b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.46b (EBIT -3.12b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.41 (Total Current Assets 5.77b / Total Current Liabilities 2.40b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 2.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.11 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -3.20b / EBITDA -2.88b)
Debt / FCF = 2.02 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -3.20b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -26.41% (Net Income -3.19b / Total Assets 11.5b)
RoE = -36.73% (Net Income TTM -3.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.70b)
RoCE = -33.60% (EBIT -3.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.70b + L.T.Debt 590.0m))
RoIC = -27.29% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.46b / Invested Capital 9.03b)
WACC = 11.64% (E(27.1b)/V(29.1b) * Re(12.43%) + D(2.01b)/V(29.1b) * Rd(1.30%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 22.43 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.58b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.77 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -97.56 | Revenue CAGR: -45.52% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-2.06 | Chg30d=+1.15% | Revisions=+15% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.16 | Chg30d=-2.33% | Revisions=-46% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-8.67 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=-45% | GrowthEPS=-19.4% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.76 | Chg30d=-0.73% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+45.1% | GrowthRev=+21.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=13, down=25)