(MRNA) Moderna - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 19.655m USD | Total Return: 91.9% in 12m

Stock Vaccines, Oncology, Rare, Therapeutics, MRNA
Total Rating 45
Safety 31
Buy Signal -0.17
Biotechnology +3.6
Biotechnology +4.5
Market Cap: 19,655m
Avg Trading Vol: 350M USD
ATR: 6.55%
Peers RS (IBD): 71.8
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility67.8%
Rel. Tail Risk-14.9%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.13
Alpha55.33
Character TTM
Beta1.540
Beta Downside2.133
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD86.58%
CAGR/Max DD-0.38
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MRNA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 2.84, "2021-06": 6.46, "2021-09": 7.7, "2021-12": 11.29, "2022-03": 8.58, "2022-06": 5.24, "2022-09": 2.53, "2022-12": 3.61, "2023-03": 0.19, "2023-06": -3.62, "2023-09": -9.53, "2023-12": 0.55, "2024-03": -3.07, "2024-06": -3.33, "2024-09": 0.03, "2024-12": -2.91, "2025-03": -2.52, "2025-06": -2.13, "2025-09": -0.51, "2025-12": -2.11, "2026-03": 0,
EPS CAGR: -10.81%
EPS Trend: -49.3%
Last SUE: 2.99
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of MRNA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 1743, 2021-06: 4215, 2021-09: 4829, 2021-12: 6949, 2022-03: 5940, 2022-06: 4566, 2022-09: 3220, 2022-12: 5149, 2023-03: 1838, 2023-06: 344, 2023-09: 1831, 2023-12: 2813, 2024-03: 167, 2024-06: 221, 2024-09: 1855, 2024-12: 956, 2025-03: 107, 2025-06: 142, 2025-09: 1016, 2025-12: 678, 2026-03: null,
Rev. CAGR: -43.94%
Rev. Trend: -62.5%
Last SUE: 0.21
Qual. Beats: 0
Risks
Technicals: volatile
Description: MRNA Moderna

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a U.S.-based biotechnology firm that develops messenger-RNA (mRNA) medicines across a broad therapeutic spectrum, including respiratory, latent, enteric, public-health, bacterial, oncology, and rare-disease indications.

Its vaccine portfolio now spans Spikevax (COVID-19), mRESVIA (RSV), seasonal and pandemic influenza candidates, as well as pipelines for cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, Zika, Nipah, and Lyme disease, while its oncology arm focuses on individualized neoantigen and checkpoint-modulating therapies.

Key recent metrics show Q3 2025 revenue of $5.3 billion, up 12 % year-over-year, and a cash position of $7.2 billion, supporting continued R&D investment of $2.1 billion in 2025. The global mRNA market is projected to grow at a 14 % CAGR through 2030, driven by expanding vaccine demand and emerging therapeutic applications.

Strategic collaborations remain central to Moderna’s growth, notably its multi-year partnership with AstraZeneca on oncology mRNA candidates, a joint development agreement with Merck on rare-disease therapies, and ongoing work with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on infectious-disease vaccines.

For a deeper dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analysis of MRNA.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • COVID-19 vaccine sales remain primary revenue driver
  • Pipeline diversification crucial for long-term growth
  • Regulatory approvals dictate new product market entry
  • Competition from established pharmaceutical companies impacts market share
  • Research and development expenses influence profitability
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 0.5
Net Income: -2.82b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.03 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 234.5% < 20% (prev 184.2%; Δ 50.32% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.15 > 3% & CFO -1.85b > Net Income -2.82b
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 3.29 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (392.0m) vs 12m ago 1.82% < -2%
Gross Margin: 14.10% > 18% (prev 0.54%; Δ 1.36k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 14.68% > 50% (prev 22.62%; Δ -7.95% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -276.6 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -2.55b / Interest Expense TTM 10.0m)
Altman Z'' 5.00
A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 6.54b - Total Current Liabilities 1.99b) / Total Assets 12.34b
B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 7.22b / Total Assets 12.34b)
C: -0.21 (EBIT TTM -2.77b / Avg Total Assets 13.24b)
D: 1.97 (Book Value of Equity 7.27b / Total Liabilities 3.69b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 5.00 = AAA
Beneish M -1.16
DSRI: 0.51 (Receivables 184.0m/592.0m, Revenue 1.94b/3.20b)
GMI: 3.85 (GM 14.10% / 54.24%)
AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.22)
SGI: 0.61 (Revenue 1.94b / 3.20b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI -2.82b - CFO -1.85b) / TA 12.34b)
Beneish M-Score: -1.16 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of MRNA shares? As of April 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.20 with a total of 4,631,800 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.01%, over one month by -8.60%, over three months by +52.94% and over the past year by +91.89%.
Is MRNA a buy, sell or hold? Moderna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.22. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MRNA.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 17
  • Sell: 3
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRNA price?
Wallstreet Target Price 43.8 -11.1%
Analysts Target Price 43.8 -11.1%
MRNA Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 April 2026
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 10.1105
P/B = 2.2722
Revenue TTM = 1.94b USD
EBIT TTM = -2.77b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.55b USD
Long Term Debt = 590.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 1.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -679.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.77b USD (19.65b + Debt 1.92b - CCE 5.80b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -276.6 (Ebit TTM -2.77b / Interest Expense TTM 10.0m)
EV/FCF = -7.68x (Enterprise Value 15.77b / FCF TTM -2.05b)
FCF Yield = -13.02% (FCF TTM -2.05b / Enterprise Value 15.77b)
 FCF Margin = -105.7% (FCF TTM -2.05b / Revenue TTM 1.94b)
 Net Margin = -145.2% (Net Income TTM -2.82b / Revenue TTM 1.94b)
Gross Margin = 14.10% ((Revenue TTM 1.94b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.33% (prev 0.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 15.77b / Total Assets 12.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 1.92b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.19b (EBIT -2.77b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.29 (Total Current Assets 6.54b / Total Current Liabilities 1.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 1.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.65b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 0.27 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -679.0m / EBITDA -2.55b)
 Debt / FCF = 0.33 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -679.0m / FCF TTM -2.05b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 9.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.31% (Net Income -2.82b / Total Assets 12.34b)
RoE = -30.15% (Net Income TTM -2.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.36b)
RoCE = -27.80% (EBIT -2.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.36b + L.T.Debt 590.0m))
 RoIC = -22.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.19b / Invested Capital 9.51b)
 WACC = 10.33% (E(19.65b)/V(21.57b) * Re(11.31%) + D(1.92b)/V(21.57b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.38%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -2.05b)
 EPS Correlation: -49.30 | EPS CAGR: -10.81% | SUE: 2.99 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -62.50 | Revenue CAGR: -43.94% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-2.10 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.195 | Revisions Net=+5 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.88 | Chg7d=+0.064 | Chg30d=-0.249 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+5.3% | Growth Revenue=+6.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.55 | Chg7d=+0.016 | Chg30d=+0.041 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+33.9% | Growth Revenue=+22.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (5 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
External Resources
Dataroma Stockcircle