MRNA Stock Analysis: Moderna | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 25.280m USD | 12M Return: 129.5% | US60770K1079 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 307M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Moderna, Inc. is a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company founded in 2010 that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines, operating in the United States, Europe, and other international markets. Its pipeline spans respiratory vaccines (including Spikevax, mRESVIA, and candidates targeting COVID, RSV, and influenza), latent and public health vaccines (such as cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, HIV, Zika, and Nipah), oncology therapeutics (including intismeran autogene), and rare disease programs (such as propionic and methylmalonic acidemia). The company was renamed from Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018 and trades as a large-cap stock on NASDAQ following its December 2018 IPO.
The companys mRNA platform represents a programmable approach to drug development, in which synthetic mRNA instructs cells to produce targeted proteins, enabling rapid design across infectious disease, oncology, and rare disease applications. Moderna maintains a network of strategic partnerships-including collaborations with Merck & Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and OpenAI, as well as U.S. government agencies such as DARPA and BARDA-which is typical within the biotechnology sector, where external funding and co-development agreements are commonly used to advance pipeline assets and share development risk.
- Spikevax COVID vaccine revenue declines as pandemic demand normalizes
- mRESVIA RSV vaccine competes with Pfizer and GSK
- Cost reduction program targets return to profitability by 2026
| Net Income: -3.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 147.3% < 20% (prev 150.3%; Δ -3.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.10 > 3% & CFO -1.05b > Net Income -3.15b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (396.0m) vs 12m ago 2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -12.57% > 18% (prev 52.22%; Δ -64.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.40% > 50% (prev 25.48%; Δ -6.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -73.10 > 6 (EBIT TTM -3.07b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 5.82b - Total Current Liabilities 2.53b) / Total Assets 11.0b |
| B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 5.10b / Total Assets 11.0b) |
| C: -0.27 (EBIT TTM -3.07b / Avg Total Assets 11.5b) |
| D: 1.61 (Book Value of Equity 6.76b / Total Liabilities 4.20b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.37 = A |
| DSRI: 0.31 (Receivables 103.0m/457.0m, Revenue 2.23b/3.06b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 0.73 (Revenue 2.23b / 3.06b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -3.15b - CFO -1.05b) / TA 11.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.87 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of August 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 64.46 with a total of 3,977,275 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.77%, over one month by +4.27%, over three months by +33.98% and over the past year by +129.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 59.90 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Moderna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.22. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MRNA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 50.8 | -21.1% |
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 11.3463
P/B = 3.5318
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.83b USD
Long Term Debt = 591.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 52.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 696.0m
Net Debt = -3.15b USD (calculated: Debt 1.98b - CCE 5.14b)
Enterprise Value = 22.1b USD (25.3b + Debt 1.98b - CCE 5.14b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -73.10 (Ebit TTM -3.07b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m)
EV/FCF = -18.09x (Enterprise Value 22.1b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
FCF Yield = -5.53% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Enterprise Value 22.1b)
FCF Margin = -54.89% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -141.4% (Net Income TTM -3.15b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = -12.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.86% (prev -145.5%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.02 (Enterprise Value 22.1b / Total Assets 11.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.12% (Interest Expense 42.0m / Debt 1.98b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.43b (EBIT -3.07b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 5.82b / Total Current Liabilities 2.53b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 1.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.12 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -3.15b / EBITDA -2.83b)
Debt / FCF = 2.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -3.15b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.43% (Net Income -3.15b / Total Assets 11.0b)
RoE = -39.20% (Net Income TTM -3.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.04b)
RoCE = -35.58% (EBIT -3.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.04b + L.T.Debt 591.0m))
RoIC = -28.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.43b / Invested Capital 8.37b)
WACC = 10.53% (E(25.3b)/V(27.3b) * Re(11.22%) + D(1.98b)/V(27.3b) * Rd(2.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.79 | Cagr: 1.61%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.22b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.66 | Revenue CAGR: -41.30% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.35 | Chg30d=-16.89% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-8.58 | Chg30d=+0.95% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=-18.2% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.91 | Chg30d=-3.25% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+42.8% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=9, down=6)