MRNA Stock Analysis: Moderna | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 86.335m USD | 12M Return: 703.3% | US60770K1079 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.44B
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Moderna is a biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. The mRNA platform uses synthetic nucleic acid to instruct cells to produce specific proteins, allowing a single underlying technology to be applied across vaccines, oncology, and rare disease therapeutics. Listed on NASDAQ since its December 2018 IPO, Moderna operates within the Health Care sector and is classified as a Large Cap company.
The companys portfolio spans multiple therapeutic areas. Commercial and clinical respiratory vaccines include Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA, alongside development candidates for COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccines. Additional programs target latent viruses (CMV, EBV, HIV), enteric viruses (norovirus), public health threats (Zika, Nipah, Mpox), and bacterial diseases such as Lyme. Beyond vaccines, Moderna is developing oncology therapeutics including intismeran autogene and rare disease treatments for propionic acidemia, methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis.
Moderna operates through strategic alliances with pharmaceutical and research partners, including Merck & Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, immatics N.V., DARPA, BARDA, the Institute for Life Changing Medicines, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and OpenAI. Founded in 2010 as Moderna Therapeutics, the company adopted its current name in August 2018.
- Spikevax COVID vaccine revenue declines as demand normalizes post-pandemic
- mRESVIA RSV vaccine launches amid competition from Pfizer and GSK
- Merck partnership for intismeran autogene advances oncology pipeline
| Net Income: -3.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 147.3% < 20% (prev 150.3%; Δ -3.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.10 > 3% & CFO -1.05b > Net Income -3.15b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (396.0m) vs 12m ago 2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -12.57% > 18% (prev 52.22%; Δ -64.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.40% > 50% (prev 25.48%; Δ -6.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -73.10 > 6 (EBIT TTM -3.07b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 5.82b - Total Current Liabilities 2.53b) / Total Assets 11.0b |
| B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 5.10b / Total Assets 11.0b) |
| C: -0.27 (EBIT TTM -3.07b / Avg Total Assets 11.5b) |
| D: 1.61 (Book Value of Equity 6.76b / Total Liabilities 4.20b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.37 = A |
| DSRI: 0.31 (Receivables 103.0m/457.0m, Revenue 2.23b/3.06b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 0.73 (Revenue 2.23b / 3.06b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -3.15b - CFO -1.05b) / TA 11.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.87 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 218.01 with a total of 21,334,738 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.11%, over one month by +49.71%, over three months by +245.23% and over the past year by +703.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 199.60 (which is 8.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Moderna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MRNA.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 122.7 | -43.7% |
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 38.7499
P/B = 10.7536
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.83b USD
Long Term Debt = 591.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 52.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 696.0m
Net Debt = -3.15b USD (calculated: Debt 1.98b - CCE 5.14b)
Enterprise Value = 83.2b USD (86.3b + Debt 1.98b - CCE 5.14b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -73.10 (Ebit TTM -3.07b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m)
EV/FCF = -68.01x (Enterprise Value 83.2b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
FCF Yield = -1.47% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Enterprise Value 83.2b)
FCF Margin = -54.89% (FCF TTM -1.22b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -141.4% (Net Income TTM -3.15b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = -12.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.86% (prev -145.5%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.59 (Enterprise Value 83.2b / Total Assets 11.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.12% (Interest Expense 42.0m / Debt 1.98b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.43b (EBIT -3.07b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 5.82b / Total Current Liabilities 2.53b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 1.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.12 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -3.15b / EBITDA -2.83b)
Debt / FCF = 2.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -3.15b / FCF TTM -1.22b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.43% (Net Income -3.15b / Total Assets 11.0b)
RoE = -39.20% (Net Income TTM -3.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.04b)
RoCE = -35.58% (EBIT -3.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.04b + L.T.Debt 591.0m))
RoIC = -28.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.43b / Invested Capital 8.37b)
WACC = 10.01% (E(86.3b)/V(88.3b) * Re(10.20%) + D(1.98b)/V(88.3b) * Rd(2.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.79 | Cagr: 1.61%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.22b)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.66 | Revenue CAGR: -41.30% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.27 | Chg30d=+1.43% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-8.39 | Chg30d=+0.22% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-15.5% | GrowthRev=+8.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.78 | Chg30d=+0.83% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+43.0% | GrowthRev=+16.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)