(MRNA) Moderna - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 19.458m USD | Total Return: 73.3% in 12m

mRNA Vaccines, Cancer Immunotherapy, Rare Disease Therapeutics
Total Rating 44
Safety 74
Buy Signal -0.25
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -18.1
Market Cap: 19.5B
Avg Turnover: 288M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility69.1%
VaR 5th Pctl11.0%
VaR vs Median-3.51%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.10
Rel. Str. IBD86.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group66.8
Character TTM
Beta1.595
Beta Downside2.246
Hurst Exponent0.491
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD86.58%
CAGR/Max DD-0.36
CAGR/Mean DD-0.56
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MRNA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 2.84, "2021-06": 6.46, "2021-09": 7.7, "2021-12": 11.29, "2022-03": 8.58, "2022-06": 5.24, "2022-09": 2.53, "2022-12": 3.61, "2023-03": 0.19, "2023-06": -3.62, "2023-09": -9.53, "2023-12": 0.55, "2024-03": -3.07, "2024-06": -3.33, "2024-09": 0.03, "2024-12": -2.91, "2025-03": -2.52, "2025-06": -2.13, "2025-09": -0.51, "2025-12": -2.11, "2026-03": -3.4,
EPS CAGR: -20.37%
EPS Trend: -61.0%
Last SUE: -1.83
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of MRNA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 1743, 2021-06: 4215, 2021-09: 4829, 2021-12: 6949, 2022-03: 5940, 2022-06: 4566, 2022-09: 3220, 2022-12: 5149, 2023-03: 1838, 2023-06: 344, 2023-09: 1831, 2023-12: 2813, 2024-03: 167, 2024-06: 221, 2024-09: 1855, 2024-12: 956, 2025-03: 107, 2025-06: 142, 2025-09: 1016, 2025-12: 678, 2026-03: 389,
Rev. CAGR: -48.15%
Rev. Trend: -57.1%
Last SUE: 0.76
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -122.7 is critical

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: MRNA Moderna

Moderna, Inc. is a Cambridge-based biotechnology firm specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Its commercial and developmental portfolio spans respiratory health, latent viruses, oncology, and rare genetic diseases. Key products include Spikevax for COVID-19 and mRESVIA for RSV, with ongoing research into influenza, HIV, and personalized cancer treatments.

The company operates within the high-growth biotechnology sector, where value is primarily driven by intellectual property and clinical trial progression through the FDA pipeline. Moderna utilizes a platform-based business model, allowing it to leverage a single mRNA technology stack across multiple therapeutic areas to potentially accelerate drug development cycles.

Strategic growth is supported by partnerships with major organizations including Merck & Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. To better understand how these partnerships influence valuation, investors can examine the latest financial metrics on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Declining COVID-19 vaccine demand impacts core revenue and operational cash flow
  • Regulatory approval of RSV and flu vaccines determines near-term growth trajectory
  • Clinical trial results for personalized cancer vaccines drive long-term valuation shifts
  • Research and development spending levels influence path toward sustained profitability
  • Strategic collaborations with Merck and Vertex accelerate pipeline commercialization potential
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 0.5
Net Income: -3.19b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.98 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 151.7% < 20% (prev 164.4%; Δ -12.76% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.13 > 3% & CFO -1.45b > Net Income -3.19b
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.41 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (395.0m) vs 12m ago 2.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: -13.89% > 18% (prev 0.54%; Δ -1.44k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 18.39% > 50% (prev 24.71%; Δ -6.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -122.7 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -2.96b / Interest Expense TTM 26.0m)
Altman Z'' 3.34
A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 5.77b - Total Current Liabilities 2.40b) / Total Assets 11.49b
B: 0.51 (Retained Earnings 5.88b / Total Assets 11.49b)
C: -0.26 (EBIT TTM -3.19b / Avg Total Assets 12.10b)
D: 1.45 (Book Value of Equity 5.91b / Total Liabilities 4.08b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 3.34 = A
Beneish M -3.60
DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 147.0m/306.0m, Revenue 2.23b/3.14b)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.23)
SGI: 0.71 (Revenue 2.23b / 3.14b)
TATA: -0.15 (NI -3.19b - CFO -1.45b) / TA 11.49b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.60 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of MRNA shares? As of May 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 45.72 with a total of 5,250,289 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.17%, over one month by -16.25%, over three months by -8.01% and over the past year by +73.25%.
Is MRNA a buy, sell or hold? Moderna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.22. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MRNA.
  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 17
  • Sell: 3
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRNA price?
Analysts Target Price 43.4 -5.1%
Moderna (MRNA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 May 2026
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 8.7453
P/B = 2.9111
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.19b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.96b USD
Long Term Debt = 590.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -3.91b USD (recalculated: Debt 1.30b - CCE 5.21b)
Enterprise Value = 15.55b USD (19.46b + Debt 1.30b - CCE 5.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -122.7 (Ebit TTM -3.19b / Interest Expense TTM 26.0m)
EV/FCF = -9.83x (Enterprise Value 15.55b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
FCF Yield = -10.17% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Enterprise Value 15.55b)
FCF Margin = -71.10% (FCF TTM -1.58b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -143.6% (Net Income TTM -3.19b / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = -13.89% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -145.5% (prev 33.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.35 (Enterprise Value 15.55b / Total Assets 11.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.31% (Interest Expense 17.0m / Debt 1.30b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.52b (EBIT -3.19b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.41 (Total Current Assets 5.77b / Total Current Liabilities 2.40b)
Debt / Equity = 0.18 (Debt 1.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.41b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 1.32 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -3.91b / EBITDA -2.96b)
 Debt / FCF = 2.47 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -3.91b / FCF TTM -1.58b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 8.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -26.41% (Net Income -3.19b / Total Assets 11.49b)
RoE = -36.73% (Net Income TTM -3.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.70b)
RoCE = -34.36% (EBIT -3.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.70b + L.T.Debt 590.0m))
 RoIC = -28.04% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.52b / Invested Capital 8.99b)
 WACC = 10.93% (E(19.46b)/V(20.76b) * Re(11.59%) + D(1.30b)/V(20.76b) * Rd(1.31%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 40.45 | Cagr: 0.0%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.58b)
 EPS Correlation: -60.98 | EPS CAGR: -20.37% | SUE: -1.83 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -57.15 | Revenue CAGR: -48.15% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-2.09 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.15 | Chg30d=-34.09% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-8.65 | Chg30d=-23.55% | Revisions=-68% | GrowthEPS=-19.2% | GrowthRev=+7.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.73 | Chg30d=-3.94% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=+45.4% | GrowthRev=+21.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -68%