(MRNA) Moderna - Overview
Stock: Vaccines, Respiratory, Oncology, Rare-Disease, Therapeutics
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | -15.42 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.293 |
| Beta Downside | 1.038 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.39% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.41 |
Description: MRNA Moderna January 02, 2026
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a U.S.-based biotechnology firm that develops messenger-RNA (mRNA) medicines across several therapeutic areas, including respiratory, latent, enteric, public-health, bacterial, oncology, and rare-disease indications. Its product portfolio spans the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine, RSV and seasonal-influenza candidates, latent-virus vaccines (CMV, EBV, HSV, VZV, HIV), a norovirus vaccine, and a pipeline of bacterial (e.g., Lyme) and oncology (individualized neoantigen, checkpoint-modulating) therapies.
As of FY 2023, Moderna reported approximately $19 billion in total revenue, with mRNA vaccine sales accounting for roughly $14 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of about 30 % driven by continued COVID-19 booster demand and the rollout of its RSV vaccine. The company’s R&D spend remains high (~ $2.5 billion), underscoring the capital-intensive nature of expanding the mRNA platform into new indications. A key sector driver is the accelerating acceptance of mRNA technology by regulators and payers, which is expanding the addressable market for both infectious-disease vaccines and personalized oncology treatments.
For a deeper quantitative dive into Moderna’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the data and tools available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -3.12b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 221.4% < 20% (prev 147.6%; Δ 73.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.16 > 3% & CFO -1.98b > Net Income -3.12b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (390.0m) vs 12m ago -2.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.93% > 18% (prev 0.67%; Δ 1126 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.90% > 50% (prev 31.99%; Δ -16.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -393.1 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m) |
Altman Z'' 6.33
| A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 6.60b - Total Current Liabilities 1.68b) / Total Assets 12.13b |
| B: 0.66 (Retained Earnings 8.05b / Total Assets 12.13b) |
| C: -0.23 (EBIT TTM -3.15b / Avg Total Assets 13.97b) |
| D: 2.88 (Book Value of Equity 8.08b / Total Liabilities 2.81b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.33 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.73 (Receivables 1.39b/1.84b, Revenue 2.22b/5.06b) |
| GMI: 5.64 (GM 11.93% / 67.29%) |
| AQI: 1.17 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 0.44 (Revenue 2.22b / 5.06b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -3.12b - CFO -1.98b) / TA 12.13b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 1.38 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of MRNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.66%, over one month by +50.43%, over three months by +89.72% and over the past year by +15.08%.
Is MRNA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.7 | -19.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.7 | -19.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 40.7 | -13.2% |
MRNA Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/S = 8.542
P/B = 2.0399
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.15b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 734.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 734.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -399.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.29b USD (19.07b + Debt 734.0m - CCE 4.50b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -393.1 (Ebit TTM -3.15b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m)
EV/FCF = -5.74x (Enterprise Value 15.29b / FCF TTM -2.66b)
FCF Yield = -17.41% (FCF TTM -2.66b / Enterprise Value 15.29b)
FCF Margin = -119.9% (FCF TTM -2.66b / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -140.3% (Net Income TTM -3.12b / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = 11.93% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 0.79% (prev 16.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 15.29b / Total Assets 12.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.09% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 734.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.48b (EBIT -3.15b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.93 (Total Current Assets 6.60b / Total Current Liabilities 1.68b)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 734.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.14 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -399.0m / EBITDA -2.94b)
Debt / FCF = 0.15 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -399.0m / FCF TTM -2.66b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.31% (Net Income -3.12b / Total Assets 12.13b)
RoE = -31.40% (Net Income TTM -3.12b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.92b)
RoCE = -29.51% (EBIT -3.15b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.92b + L.T.Debt 734.0m))
RoIC = -25.04% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.48b / Invested Capital 9.92b)
WACC = 10.32% (E(19.07b)/V(19.80b) * Re(10.68%) + D(734.0m)/V(19.80b) * Rd(1.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.63%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.66b)
EPS Correlation: -59.06 | EPS CAGR: -15.44% | SUE: 3.51 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -70.39 | Revenue CAGR: -40.11% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-2.31 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.92 | Chg30d=+0.133 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+13.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.2%