(MRNA) Moderna - Ratings and Ratios
Vaccines, Oncology, Rare-Diseases, Therapeutics,
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 97.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.82% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.36 |
| Alpha | -49.27 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.50 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.460 |
| Beta | 1.267 |
| Beta Downside | 0.991 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 89.35% |
| Mean DD | 59.73% |
| Median DD | 59.10% |
Description: MRNA Moderna October 30, 2025
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a biotech firm that commercializes messenger-RNA (mRNA) medicines across respiratory, latent, enteric, public-health, and bacterial-disease vaccine categories, as well as oncology and rare-disease therapeutics. Its pipeline spans COVID-19, RSV, CMV, EBV, HSV, VZV, HIV, norovirus, Zika, Nipah, mpox, Lyme disease, and a suite of individualized cancer vaccines and enzyme-replacement products for metabolic disorders.
In its most recent quarter (Q2 2024), Moderna reported revenue of approximately $5.1 billion, driven primarily by Spikevax sales of $1.2 billion and a newly launched RSV vaccine that contributed $250 million. The company ended the period with a cash-and-short-term-investments balance of $8.5 billion and R&D expenditures of $1.8 billion, reflecting continued investment in Phase 3 CMV and EBV vaccine programs and the expansion of its oncology pipeline.
Key macro drivers include accelerating adoption of mRNA technology beyond COVID-19, robust U.S. and EU government funding for pandemic preparedness, and competitive pressure from peers such as Pfizer/BioNTech and CureVac, which together shape pricing dynamics and market share. For a deeper, data-rich analysis of how these factors may affect Moderna’s valuation, a quick look at ValueRay’s platform can provide useful context.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income (-3.12b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 133.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.22 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.09pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 221.4% (prev 147.6%; Δ 73.74pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO -1.98b > Net Income -3.12b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.93 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (390.0m) change vs 12m ago -2.26% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.93% (prev 67.29%; Δ -55.35pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 15.90% (prev 31.99%; Δ -16.09pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -393.1 (EBITDA TTM -2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 6.33
| (A) 0.41 = (Total Current Assets 6.60b - Total Current Liabilities 1.68b) / Total Assets 12.13b |
| (B) 0.66 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 8.05b / Total Assets 12.13b |
| (C) -0.23 = EBIT TTM -3.15b / Avg Total Assets 13.97b |
| (D) 2.88 = Book Value of Equity 8.08b / Total Liabilities 2.81b |
| Total Rating: 6.33 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 22.55
| 1. Piotroski 1.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -47.01% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.08 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.14 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -43.89)% |
| 7. RoE -31.40% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -70.39% |
| 9. EPS Trend -73.09% |
What is the price of MRNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.77%, over one month by +12.96%, over three months by +12.65% and over the past year by -38.73%.
Is MRNA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 3
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.3 | 33.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.3 | 33.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.8 | -36.5% |
MRNA Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Forward = 32.4675
P/S = 4.2277
P/B = 0.9934
Beta = 1.111
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.15b USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 734.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 734.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -399.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.67b USD (9.44b + Debt 734.0m - CCE 4.50b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -393.1 (Ebit TTM -3.15b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m)
FCF Yield = -47.01% (FCF TTM -2.66b / Enterprise Value 5.67b)
FCF Margin = -119.9% (FCF TTM -2.66b / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -140.3% (Net Income TTM -3.12b / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = 11.93% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 0.79% (prev 16.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 5.67b / Total Assets 12.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.09% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 734.0m)
Taxrate = -6.95% (negative due to tax credits) (13.0m / -187.0m)
NOPAT = -3.36b (EBIT -3.15b * (1 - -6.95%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 3.93 (Total Current Assets 6.60b / Total Current Liabilities 1.68b)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 734.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.14 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -399.0m / EBITDA -2.94b)
Debt / FCF = 0.15 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -399.0m / FCF TTM -2.66b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -25.68% (Net Income -3.12b / Total Assets 12.13b)
RoE = -31.40% (Net Income TTM -3.12b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.92b)
RoCE = -29.51% (EBIT -3.15b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.92b + L.T.Debt 734.0m))
RoIC = -33.89% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -3.36b / Invested Capital 9.92b)
WACC = 9.99% (E(9.44b)/V(10.17b) * Re(10.68%) + D(734.0m)/V(10.17b) * Rd(1.09%) * (1-Tc(-0.07)))
Discount Rate = 10.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.63%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.66b)
EPS Correlation: -73.09 | EPS CAGR: -19.60% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -70.39 | Revenue CAGR: -40.11% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-2.44 | Chg30d=+0.047 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-7.15 | Chg30d=+0.400 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+11.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.2%
Additional Sources for MRNA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle