(MRNA) Moderna - Overview
Stock: Vaccines, Respiratory, Oncology, Rare-Disease, Therapeutics
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.75 |
| Alpha | 23.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.260 |
| Beta Downside | 1.052 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.58% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.35 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: MRNA Moderna January 02, 2026
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a U.S.-based biotechnology firm that develops messenger-RNA (mRNA) medicines across several therapeutic areas, including respiratory, latent, enteric, public-health, bacterial, oncology, and rare-disease indications. Its product portfolio spans the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine, RSV and seasonal-influenza candidates, latent-virus vaccines (CMV, EBV, HSV, VZV, HIV), a norovirus vaccine, and a pipeline of bacterial (e.g., Lyme) and oncology (individualized neoantigen, checkpoint-modulating) therapies.
As of FY 2023, Moderna reported approximately $19 billion in total revenue, with mRNA vaccine sales accounting for roughly $14 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of about 30 % driven by continued COVID-19 booster demand and the rollout of its RSV vaccine. The company’s R&D spend remains high (~ $2.5 billion), underscoring the capital-intensive nature of expanding the mRNA platform into new indications. A key sector driver is the accelerating acceptance of mRNA technology by regulators and payers, which is expanding the addressable market for both infectious-disease vaccines and personalized oncology treatments.
For a deeper quantitative dive into Moderna’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the data and tools available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -3.74b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 242.0% < 20% (prev 147.6%; Δ 94.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -180.0m > Net Income -3.74b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (392.0m) vs 12m ago -1.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.65% > 18% (prev 0.67%; Δ 2498 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.38% > 50% (prev 31.99%; Δ -18.61% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -476.9 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -3.59b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m) |
Altman Z'' 4.58
| A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 6.54b - Total Current Liabilities 1.99b) / Total Assets 12.34b |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 7.22b / Total Assets 12.34b) |
| C: -0.27 (EBIT TTM -3.81b / Avg Total Assets 14.07b) |
| D: 1.97 (Book Value of Equity 7.27b / Total Liabilities 3.69b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.58 = AA |
Beneish M -2.75
| DSRI: 0.27 (Receivables 184.0m/1.84b, Revenue 1.88b/5.06b) |
| GMI: 2.62 (GM 25.65% / 67.29%) |
| AQI: 1.27 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 0.37 (Revenue 1.88b / 5.06b) |
| TATA: -0.29 (NI -3.74b - CFO -180.0m) / TA 12.34b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MRNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +23.91%, over one month by +15.58%, over three months by +105.54% and over the past year by +38.44%.
Is MRNA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MRNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 41.4 | -16.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 41.4 | -16.7% |
MRNA Fundamental Data Overview February 19, 2026
P/S = 8.8297
P/B = 1.7686
Revenue TTM = 1.88b USD
EBIT TTM = -3.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = -3.59b USD
Long Term Debt = 734.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -679.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.28b USD (17.16b + Debt 1.92b - CCE 5.80b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -476.9 (Ebit TTM -3.81b / Interest Expense TTM 8.00m)
EV/FCF = -15.25x (Enterprise Value 13.28b / FCF TTM -871.0m)
FCF Yield = -6.56% (FCF TTM -871.0m / Enterprise Value 13.28b)
FCF Margin = -46.26% (FCF TTM -871.0m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Net Margin = -198.7% (Net Income TTM -3.74b / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Gross Margin = 25.65% ((Revenue TTM 1.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.33% (prev 16.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 13.28b / Total Assets 12.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 1.92b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -3.01b (EBIT -3.81b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.29 (Total Current Assets 6.54b / Total Current Liabilities 1.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.22 (Debt 1.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -679.0m / EBITDA -3.59b)
Debt / FCF = 0.78 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -679.0m / FCF TTM -871.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -26.59% (Net Income -3.74b / Total Assets 12.34b)
RoE = -38.36% (Net Income TTM -3.74b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.75b)
RoCE = -36.37% (EBIT -3.81b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.75b + L.T.Debt 734.0m))
RoIC = -30.37% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -3.01b / Invested Capital 9.92b)
WACC = 9.53% (E(17.16b)/V(19.08b) * Re(10.56%) + D(1.92b)/V(19.08b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.38%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -871.0m)
EPS Correlation: -66.99 | EPS CAGR: -20.73% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -69.96 | Revenue CAGR: -46.21% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-2.10 | Chg30d=+0.217 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.62 | Chg30d=+0.323 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+8.8% | Growth Revenue=+6.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-4.63 | Chg30d=+0.100 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+30.1% | Growth Revenue=+19.1%