Overview Dividends

(MSBI) Midland States Bancorp - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US5977421057

Commercial Loans, Real Estate Loans, Depository Products, Wealth Management, Equipment Leasing

MSBI EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -36.86%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -43.3%

MSBI Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -12.71%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): -70.5%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	35.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	48.6%
Relative Tail Risk	-16.59%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.04
Alpha	-46.98

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.427
Beta	0.718
Beta Downside	0.544

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	44.34%
Mean DD	19.55%
Median DD	18.28%

Description: MSBI Midland States Bancorp October 26, 2025

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is a financial holding company that operates Midland States Bank through two primary segments – Banking and Wealth Management – offering a broad suite of products that includes commercial and residential real-estate loans, construction financing, equipment leasing, deposit accounts, and comprehensive trust and wealth-management services.

As of the most recent quarter (Q2 2024), the bank reported a net interest margin of 3.45%, total loans of $7.2 billion (up 5.2% YoY), and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 78%, indicating a balanced funding profile. The return on average assets (ROA) stood at 0.95%, while the efficiency ratio improved to 58%, reflecting tighter cost control.

The regional-bank sector remains highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy stance; with the Fed’s benchmark rate at 5.25%-5.50%, higher rates are boosting net interest income but also pressuring loan-demand, especially in price-sensitive commercial-real-estate segments. Additionally, the Midwest’s manufacturing and logistics activity – a key driver for the bank’s commercial-real-estate portfolio – has shown a 3% QoQ expansion, supporting loan growth in warehouses and production facilities.

For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may want to explore MSBI’s detailed financial metrics and peer comparisons on ValueRay.

MSBI Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	348m
Sub-Industry	Regional Banks
IPO / Inception	2016-05-24
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-42.6%
Analyst Rating	3.0 of 5

MSBI Dividends

Dividend Yield	9.71%
Yield on Cost 5y	11.52%
Yield CAGR 5y	3.76%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	91.2%

MSBI Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	-10.27%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.23
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.53
Current Volume	204.1k
Average Volume	157.8k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income (-9.47m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 15.5m TTM)

FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 598.2% (prev -994.8%; Δ 1593 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 184.3m > Net Income -9.47m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-167.2m) to EBITDA (62.4m) ratio: -2.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 179.3 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (21.8m) change vs 12m ago 0.39% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 56.77% (prev 51.69%; Δ 5.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 3.47% (prev 6.10%; Δ -2.63pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.06 (EBITDA TTM 62.4m / Interest Expense TTM 176.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.48

(A) 0.22 = (Total Current Assets 1.55b - Total Current Liabilities 8.65m) / Total Assets 7.11b

(B) 0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 100.7m / Total Assets 7.11b

(D) 0.00 = Book Value of Equity 27.0m / Total Liabilities 6.53b

Total Rating: 1.48 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.85

1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50

2. FCF Yield -26.21% = -5.0

3. FCF Margin 69.60% = 7.50

4. Debt/Equity 0.86 = 2.14

5. Debt/Ebitda -2.68 = 2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= -6.50)% = -8.12

7. RoE -1.32% = -0.22

8. Rev. Trend -70.47% = -5.29

9. EPS Trend -43.28% = -2.16

What is the price of MSBI shares?

As of November 15, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 16.17 with a total of 204,052 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.05%, over one month by -0.43%, over three months by -6.52% and over the past year by -34.23%.

Is Midland States Bancorp a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Midland States Bancorp (NASDAQ:MSBI) is currently (November 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 38.85 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of MSBI is around 15.28 USD . This means that MSBI is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -5.5%.

Is MSBI a buy, sell or hold?

Midland States Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefor, it is recommend to hold MSBI.

Strong Buy: 0
Buy: 0
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSBI price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	17.3	6.7%
Analysts Target Price	17.3	6.7%
ValueRay Target Price	16.9	4.3%

MSBI Fundamental Data Overview November 06, 2025

Market Cap USD = 348.4m (348.4m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 1.6116
P/B = 0.781
P/EG = 2.2
Beta = 0.69
Revenue TTM = 257.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 11.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 62.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 340.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.65m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 493.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -167.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -684.9m USD (348.4m + Debt 493.0m - CCE 1.53b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.06 (Ebit TTM 11.2m / Interest Expense TTM 176.1m)
FCF Yield = -26.21% (FCF TTM 179.5m / Enterprise Value -684.9m)
FCF Margin = 69.60% (FCF TTM 179.5m / Revenue TTM 257.9m)
Net Margin = -3.67% (Net Income TTM -9.47m / Revenue TTM 257.9m)
Gross Margin = 56.77% ((Revenue TTM 257.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 111.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.74% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.10 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -684.9m / Total Assets 7.11b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.96% (Interest Expense 39.2m / Debt 493.0m)
Taxrate = 19.13% (2.84m / 14.9m)
NOPAT = 9.04m (EBIT 11.2m * (1 - 19.13%))
Current Ratio = 179.3 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 1.55b / Total Current Liabilities 8.65m)
Debt / Equity = 0.86 (Debt 493.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 573.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.68 (Net Debt -167.2m / EBITDA 62.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.93 (Net Debt -167.2m / FCF TTM 179.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 718.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.13% (Net Income -9.47m / Total Assets 7.11b)
RoE = -1.32% (Net Income TTM -9.47m / Total Stockholder Equity 718.1m)
RoCE = 1.06% (EBIT 11.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 718.1m + L.T.Debt 340.8m))
RoIC = 0.86% (NOPAT 9.04m / Invested Capital 1.05b)
WACC = 7.36% (E(348.4m)/V(841.4m) * Re(8.66%) + D(493.0m)/V(841.4m) * Rd(7.96%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.23% ; FCFE base≈160.8m ; Y1≈144.1m ; Y5≈122.7m
Fair Price DCF = 92.21 (DCF Value 1.99b / Shares Outstanding 21.5m; 5y FCF grow -12.86% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -43.28 | EPS CAGR: -36.86% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -70.47 | Revenue CAGR: -12.71% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for MSBI Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle