MSBI Stock Analysis: Midland States Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 629m USD | 12M Return: 73.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.15M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -51.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) is a U.S.-based financial holding company that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Midland States Bank, serving individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. Founded in 1881 and headquartered in Effingham, Illinois, the company is listed on NASDAQ and is classified within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the Financials sector. Regional banks like MSBI typically operate under a community banking model, emphasizing relationship-driven lending and local deposit gathering within defined geographic markets.
The company reports its operations across two segments: Banking and Wealth Management. The Banking segment generates the majority of revenue through interest-earning assets, including commercial loans, commercial real estate loans (covering property types such as owner-occupied offices, retail centers, multifamily properties, and farmland), construction and land development loans, residential real estate loans (first and second mortgages plus home equity lines of credit), and commercial equipment leasing. This diversified loan portfolio is characteristic of mid-sized regional banks, which balance commercial, real estate, and consumer exposures to manage credit risk and interest rate sensitivity.
The Wealth Management segment complements the banking franchise by offering trust and wealth services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage. The company also provides standard depository products such as checking, savings, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and sweep accounts. Banks operating in this segment typically benefit from fee-based income streams that are less correlated with interest rate cycles than traditional lending revenue, providing some diversification to the overall earnings mix.
- Net interest margin compression pressures profitability as deposit costs rise
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio credit quality faces heightened scrutiny
- Wealth Management segment drives fee income diversification
| Net Income: 35.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -916.5% < 20% (prev 361.3%; Δ -1.28k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 117.9m > Net Income 35.2m |
| Net Debt (-1.02b) to EBITDA (58.6m): -17.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.3m) vs 12m ago -3.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.70% > 18% (prev 21.66%; Δ 38.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.41% > 50% (prev 5.31%; Δ 1.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 47.0m / Interest Expense TTM 138.6m) |
| A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 1.48b - Total Current Liabilities 5.59b) / Total Assets 6.55b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 96.2m / Total Assets 6.55b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 47.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.00b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 559.0m / Total Liabilities 5.99b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.93 = D |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 25.9m/24.3m, Revenue 449.1m/395.9m) |
| GMI: 0.36 (GM 21.66% / 59.70%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.76 / AQ_t-1 0.79) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 449.1m / 395.9m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 35.2m - CFO 117.9m) / TA 6.55b) |
| Beneish M = -3.58 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.28 with a total of 157,675 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.67%, over one month by +5.29%, over three months by +30.17% and over the past year by +73.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.20 (which is 3.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Midland States Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSBI.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.3 | -6.7% |
P/E Trailing = 25.2917
P/E Forward = 8.2169
P/S = 2.2923
P/B = 1.4512
P/EG = 1.4086
Revenue TTM = 449.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 47.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 58.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 265.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 153.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 428.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.3m
Net Debt = -1.02b USD (calculated: Debt 428.7m - CCE 1.45b)
Enterprise Value = 629.1m USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.34 (Ebit TTM 47.0m / Interest Expense TTM 138.6m)
EV/FCF = 5.37x (Enterprise Value 629.1m / FCF TTM 117.1m)
FCF Yield = 18.61% (FCF TTM 117.1m / Enterprise Value 629.1m)
FCF Margin = 26.07% (FCF TTM 117.1m / Revenue TTM 449.1m)
Net Margin = 7.83% (Net Income TTM 35.2m / Revenue TTM 449.1m)
Gross Margin = 59.70% ((Revenue TTM 449.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 181.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.92% (prev 68.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 629.1m / Total Assets 6.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 32.33% (Interest Expense 138.6m / Debt 428.7m)
Taxrate = 25.27% (11.9m / 47.0m)
NOPAT = 35.2m (EBIT 47.0m * (1 - 25.27%))
Current Ratio = 0.26 (Total Current Assets 1.48b / Total Current Liabilities 5.59b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 428.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 559.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -17.46 (Net Debt -1.02b / EBITDA 58.6m)
Debt / FCF = -8.74 (Net Debt -1.02b / FCF TTM 117.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 570.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.50% (Net Income 35.2m / Total Assets 6.55b)
RoE = 6.16% (Net Income TTM 35.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 570.5m)
RoCE = 5.63% (EBIT 47.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 570.5m + L.T.Debt 265.0m))
RoIC = 3.24% (NOPAT 35.2m / Invested Capital 1.09b)
WACC = 14.98% (E(629.1m)/V(1.06b) * Re(8.72%) + D(428.7m)/V(1.06b) * Rd(32.33%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -44.72 | Cagr: -2.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 52.60% ; FCFF base≈136.7m ; Y1≈119.9m ; Y5≈96.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 85.67 (EV 752.8m - Net Debt -1.02b = Equity 1.78b / Shares 20.7m; r=14.98% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.50 | Revenue CAGR: -6.51% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.15 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+85.4% | GrowthRev=-0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.13 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=-0.6% | GrowthRev=+1.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +84% (up=16, down=0)