MSBI Stock Analysis: Midland States Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 679m USD | 12M Return: 106.2% | US5977421057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.17M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -51.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is a U.S.-based financial holding company that operates through its subsidiary Midland States Bank, serving individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. Founded in 1881 and headquartered in Effingham, Illinois, the company reports results across two segments: Banking and Wealth Management. Its banking segment spans a wide range of lending products, including commercial loans, commercial real estate loans across multiple property types, construction and land development loans, and residential real estate offerings such as first and second mortgages and home equity lines of credit. The company also provides commercial equipment leasing and a full suite of depository products, including checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposit, and sweep accounts. Its Wealth Management segment delivers financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services.
As a small-cap regional bank within the GICS Financials sector, MSBI competes in a fragmented U.S. community and regional banking market, where institutions typically generate revenue from a combination of net interest income (driven by loan and deposit spreads) and non-interest income from fee-based services such as wealth management. The companys combination of traditional commercial and retail banking with a dedicated wealth management arm reflects a common dual-engine model used by mid-sized U.S. regional banks to diversify earnings and deepen client relationships.
- Net interest margin expands on Fed rate hikes
- Commercial real estate loan losses pressure earnings
- Wealth Management fees grow on AUM expansion
| Net Income: 43.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -841.3% < 20% (prev -1.45k%; Δ 608.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 119.4m > Net Income 43.0m |
| Net Debt (-1.60b) to EBITDA (69.2m): -23.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.1m) vs 12m ago -3.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.93% > 18% (prev 18.26%; Δ 45.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.42% > 50% (prev 5.34%; Δ 1.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 58.0m / Interest Expense TTM 128.0m) |
| A: -0.56 (Total Current Assets 1.99b - Total Current Liabilities 5.71b) / Total Assets 6.70b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 107.0m / Total Assets 6.70b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 58.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.90b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 569.7m / Total Liabilities 6.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.44 = D |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 23.7m/356.8m, Revenue 442.9m/379.4m) |
| GMI: 0.29 (GM 18.26% / 63.93%) |
| AQI: 0.76 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.91) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 442.9m / 379.4m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 43.0m - CFO 119.4m) / TA 6.70b) |
| Beneish M = -4.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.00 with a total of 113,018 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.51%, over one month by -0.72%, over three months by +9.48% and over the past year by +106.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.60 (which is 4.2% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Midland States Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSBI.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 33.3 | 0.8% |
P/E Trailing = 20.8535
P/E Forward = 8.2169
P/S = 2.3744
P/B = 1.4861
P/EG = 1.4086
Revenue TTM = 442.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 58.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 69.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 285.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.64m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 355.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.3m
Net Debt = -1.60b USD (calculated: Debt 355.2m - CCE 1.96b)
Enterprise Value = 679.4m USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.45 (Ebit TTM 58.0m / Interest Expense TTM 128.0m)
EV/FCF = 5.84x (Enterprise Value 679.4m / FCF TTM 116.4m)
FCF Yield = 17.13% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Enterprise Value 679.4m)
FCF Margin = 26.27% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Revenue TTM 442.9m)
Net Margin = 9.71% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Revenue TTM 442.9m)
Gross Margin = 63.93% ((Revenue TTM 442.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 159.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.37% (prev 68.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 679.4m / Total Assets 6.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 36.03% (Interest Expense 128.0m / Debt 355.2m)
Taxrate = 25.78% (14.9m / 58.0m)
NOPAT = 43.0m (EBIT 58.0m * (1 - 25.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.35 (Total Current Assets 1.99b / Total Current Liabilities 5.71b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 355.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 569.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -23.14 (Net Debt -1.60b / EBITDA 69.2m)
Debt / FCF = -13.76 (Net Debt -1.60b / FCF TTM 116.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 569.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.62% (Net Income 43.0m / Total Assets 6.70b)
RoE = 7.55% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 569.5m)
RoCE = 6.78% (EBIT 58.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 569.5m + L.T.Debt 285.0m))
RoIC = 4.43% (NOPAT 43.0m / Invested Capital 971.2m)
WACC = 14.51% (E(679.4m)/V(1.03b) * Re(8.11%) + D(355.2m)/V(1.03b) * Rd(36.03%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -52.52 | Cagr: -1.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 53.80% ; FCFF base≈141.6m ; Y1≈124.2m ; Y5≈100.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 116.1 (EV 808.9m - Net Debt -1.60b = Equity 2.41b / Shares 20.8m; r=14.51% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.44 | Revenue CAGR: -6.50% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.37 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+98.0% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.39 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+0.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +82% (up=14, down=0)