MSFT Stock Analysis: Microsoft | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.005.636m USD | 12M Return: 0.9% | US5949181045 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.8B
EPS Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.9%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Microsoft Corporation is a global technology company founded in 1975 and headquartered in Redmond, Washington. It develops and supports a broad portfolio of technology solutions for both consumers and businesses, spanning operating systems, business applications, software development tools, cloud and AI services, gaming products, and devices such as PCs, tablets, and Xbox consoles. The company operates through three main reporting segments: Productivity and Business Processes (including Microsoft 365, Teams, LinkedIn, and Dynamics 365), Intelligent Cloud (Azure cloud services, server products, GitHub, and developer tools), and More Personal Computing (Windows OEM licensing, Surface devices, Xbox gaming, and search advertising via Bing and Microsoft Edge). Microsoft sells its products and services through a combination of partner channels and retail networks.
As a member of the GICS Information Technology sector and Systems Software sub-industry, Microsoft operates a diversified business model that combines recurring subscription revenue (such as Microsoft 365 and Xbox Game Pass), consumption-based cloud and AI services, perpetual and OEM software licensing, and hardware sales. The company listed on the NASDAQ exchange in 1986 under the ticker MSFT and is classified as a mega-cap stock. Its recent strategic emphasis on AI integration, exemplified by products like Microsoft 365 Copilot and AI services within Azure, reflects the broader shift across the systems software industry toward embedding artificial intelligence into productivity and cloud platforms.
- Azure AI services drive Intelligent Cloud revenue growth
- Heavy AI infrastructure capex pressures free cash flow margins
- EU antitrust ruling forces Microsoft 365 Teams unbundling
| Net Income: 134b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.72% < 20% (prev 17.72%; Δ -6.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 > 3% & CFO 183b > Net Income 134b |
| Net Debt (68.5b) to EBITDA (212b): 0.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (7.45b) vs 12m ago -0.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 67.94% > 18% (prev 68.82%; Δ -0.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.18% > 50% (prev 45.51%; Δ 2.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 55.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 169b / Interest Expense TTM 3.05b) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 208b - Total Current Liabilities 169b) / Total Assets 758b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 328b / Total Assets 758b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 169b / Avg Total Assets 689b) |
| D: 1.40 (Book Value of Equity 442b / Total Liabilities 316b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.87 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 80.9b/69.9b, Revenue 332b/282b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 68.82% / 67.94%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 332b / 282b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 134b - CFO 183b) / TA 758b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 521.08 with a total of 21,252,439 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.40%, over one month by +4.63%, over three months by +33.75% and over the past year by +0.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 505.50 (which is 3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Microsoft has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.71. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MSFT.
- StrongBuy: 41
- Buy: 14
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 596.2 | 14.4% |
P/E Trailing = 30.2716
P/E Forward = 25.1256
P/S = 12.071
P/B = 8.359
P/EG = 1.6173
Revenue TTM = 332b USD
EBIT TTM = 169b USD
EBITDA TTM = 212b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.1b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.9b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 145b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.5b
Net Debt = 68.5b USD (calculated: Debt 145b - CCE 76.8b)
Enterprise Value = 4074b USD (4006b + Debt 145b - CCE 76.8b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 55.39 (Ebit TTM 169b / Interest Expense TTM 3.05b)
EV/FCF = 60.82x (Enterprise Value 4074b / FCF TTM 67.0b)
FCF Yield = 1.64% (FCF TTM 67.0b / Enterprise Value 4074b)
FCF Margin = 20.19% (FCF TTM 67.0b / Revenue TTM 332b)
Net Margin = 40.31% (Net Income TTM 134b / Revenue TTM 332b)
Gross Margin = 67.94% ((Revenue TTM 332b - Cost of Revenue TTM 106b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.20% (prev 67.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.37 (Enterprise Value 4074b / Total Assets 758b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.10% (Interest Expense 3.05b / Debt 145b)
Taxrate = 19.40% (32.2b / 166b)
NOPAT = 136b (EBIT 169b * (1 - 19.40%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 208b / Total Current Liabilities 169b)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 145b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 442b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.32 (Net Debt 68.5b / EBITDA 212b)
Debt / FCF = 1.02 (Net Debt 68.5b / FCF TTM 67.0b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 403b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.42% (Net Income 134b / Total Assets 758b)
RoE = 33.22% (Net Income TTM 134b / Total Stockholder Equity 403b)
RoCE = 38.96% (EBIT 169b / Capital Employed (Equity 403b + L.T.Debt 31.1b))
RoIC = 23.01% (NOPAT 136b / Invested Capital 592b)
WACC = 9.82% (E(4006b)/V(4151b) * Re(10.12%) + D(145b)/V(4151b) * Rd(2.10%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 10.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -87.46 | Cagr: -0.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 69.39% ; FCFF base≈68.8b ; Y1≈65.4b ; Y5≈62.0b
[DCF] Fair Price = 96.10 (EV 782b - Net Debt 68.5b = Equity 714b / Shares 7.43b; r=9.82% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -6.46% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.84 | EPS CAGR: 20.52% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.91 | Revenue CAGR: 16.08% | SUE: 2.86 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.72 | Chg30d=-0.13% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=26
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=4.82 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=26
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=19.78 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+14.5% | GrowthRev=+17.9%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=23.72 | Chg30d=+0.54% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+19.9% | GrowthRev=+19.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=12, down=6)