MTCH Stock Analysis: Match | NASDAQ
Internet Content & Information | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 8.981m USD | 12M Return: 21.2% | US57667L1070 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 143M
EPS Trend: 69.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 72.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MTCH) is a U.S.-based digital technology company that operates a global portfolio of dating and connection-focused brands across four reportable segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. Its brands include Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, and BLK, among others, each tailored to different user demographics and preferences. Incorporated in 1986 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Match Group went public on November 19, 2015, and is classified within the Communication Services sector under the Interactive Media & Services sub-industry, with a mid-cap market capitalization of approximately $9.46 billion USD. The company generates the majority of its revenue through freemium subscription models, where core app usage is free and monetized through premium features such as boosts, super likes, and tiered subscriptions.
- Tinder paying user declines pressure segment revenue
- Hinge paying users accelerate double-digit growth
- Bumble competition intensifies across dating apps
| Net Income: 721.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.27 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.01% < 20% (prev 12.79%; Δ 1.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.29 > 3% & CFO 1.21b > Net Income 721.4m |
| Net Debt (3.26b) to EBITDA (1.14b): 2.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last fiscal year (262.5m) vs prev -5.94% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.79% > 18% (prev 72.26%; Δ 3.53% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 79.82% > 50% (prev 76.36%; Δ 3.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 169.5m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.10b - Total Current Liabilities 615.9m) / Total Assets 4.19b |
| B: -1.30 (Retained Earnings -5.45b / Total Assets 4.19b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.04b / Avg Total Assets 4.37b) |
| D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -139.5m / Total Liabilities 4.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.92 = D |
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 278.9m/344.4m, Revenue 3.49b/3.47b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 72.26% / 75.79%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.70 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.49b / 3.47b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 721.4m - CFO 1.21b) / TA 4.19b) |
| Beneish M = -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.50 with a total of 9,134,700 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.88%, over one month by -4.54%, over three months by -4.56% and over the past year by +21.15%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.60 (which is 7.5% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Match has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.70. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTCH.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.3 | 12.4% |
P/E Trailing = 13.6525
P/E Forward = 9.6525
P/S = 2.5591
P/B = 11.4898
P/EG = 0.3446
Revenue TTM = 3.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.04b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 423.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 14.0m
Net Debt = 3.26b USD (calculated: Debt 3.99b - CCE 729.1m)
Enterprise Value = 12.2b USD (8.98b + Debt 3.99b - CCE 729.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.11 (Ebit TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 169.5m)
EV/FCF = 10.74x (Enterprise Value 12.2b / FCF TTM 1.14b)
FCF Yield = 9.31% (FCF TTM 1.14b / Enterprise Value 12.2b)
FCF Margin = 32.69% (FCF TTM 1.14b / Revenue TTM 3.49b)
Net Margin = 20.69% (Net Income TTM 721.4m / Revenue TTM 3.49b)
Gross Margin = 75.79% ((Revenue TTM 3.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 843.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.83% (prev 76.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.92 (Enterprise Value 12.2b / Total Assets 4.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.25% (Interest Expense 169.5m / Debt 3.99b)
Taxrate = 8.09% (72.4m / 894.7m)
NOPAT = 951.4m (EBIT 1.04b * (1 - 8.09%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 1.10b / Total Current Liabilities 615.9m)
Debt / Equity = -28.58 (negative equity) (Debt 3.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -139.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.86 (Net Debt 3.26b / EBITDA 1.14b)
Debt / FCF = 2.86 (Net Debt 3.26b / FCF TTM 1.14b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -212.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.52% (Net Income 721.4m / Total Assets 4.19b)
RoE = -340.2% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 721.4m / Total Stockholder Equity -212.0m)
RoCE = 31.02% (EBIT 1.04b / Capital Employed (Equity -212.0m + L.T.Debt 3.55b))
RoIC = 24.87% (NOPAT 951.4m / Invested Capital 3.83b)
WACC = 6.53% (E(8.98b)/V(13.0b) * Re(7.70%) + D(3.99b)/V(13.0b) * Rd(4.25%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.77 | Cagr: -6.21%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.07b ; Y1≈1.23b ; Y5≈1.80b
[DCF] Fair Price = 102.4 (EV 27.1b - Net Debt 3.26b = Equity 23.9b / Shares 233.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 69.27 | EPS CAGR: 5.63% | SUE: -1.65 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 72.14 | Revenue CAGR: 0.94% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.84 | Chg30d=-2.95% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+17.5% | GrowthRev=-0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.59 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+19.6% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)