MTCH Stock Analysis: Match | NASDAQ

Internet Content & Information | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 9.062m USD | 12M Return: 23.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Dating Apps, Online Dating, Matchmaking Platforms, Dating Platforms
Total Rating 66
Safety 35
Buy Signal 0.67
Internet Content & Information
Industry Rotation: +12.5
Market Cap: 9.06B
Avg Turnover: 137M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility35.2%
VaR 5th Pctl5.82%
VaR vs Median0.40%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.55
Rel. Str. IBD72.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group77.6
Character TTM
Beta0.928
Beta Downside1.004
Hurst Exponent0.437
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD43.59%
CAGR/Max DD-0.13
CAGR/Mean DD-0.20
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MTCH over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.56, "2021-09": 0.56, "2021-12": -0.47, "2022-03": 0.77, "2022-06": 0.69, "2022-09": 0.58, "2022-12": 0.87, "2023-03": 0.54, "2023-06": 0.65, "2023-09": 0.75, "2023-12": 1.08, "2024-03": 0.64, "2024-06": 0.69, "2024-09": 0.79, "2024-12": 0.82, "2025-03": 0.68, "2025-06": 0.71, "2025-09": 0.83, "2025-12": 1.06, "2026-03": 0.97,
EPS CAGR: 6.20%
EPS Trend: 71.1%
Last SUE: 2.59
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of MTCH over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 707.76, 2021-09: 801.835, 2021-12: 806.07, 2022-03: 798.631, 2022-06: 794.513, 2022-09: 809.546, 2022-12: 786.153, 2023-03: 787.124, 2023-06: 829.552, 2023-09: 881.6, 2023-12: 866.228, 2024-03: 859.647, 2024-06: 864.066, 2024-09: 895.484, 2024-12: 860.176, 2025-03: 831.178, 2025-06: 863.738, 2025-09: 914.275, 2025-12: 878.006, 2026-03: 863.934,
Rev. CAGR: 2.49%
Rev. Trend: 80.9%
Last SUE: 1.99
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +2.0% 2
Feb -1.2% 14
Mar -0.5% 23
Apr +4.0% 12
May +1.8% 15
Jun -0.3% 13
Jul +3.4% 23
Aug +6.3% 20
Sep -2.8% 9
Oct -4.1% 27
Nov +0.1% 8
Dec +1.4% 30

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MTCH Match

Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MTCH) is a Dallas-based digital technology company that operates a portfolio of dating and matchmaking brands across four reportable segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. Its brand lineup-which includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, and BLK-targets a broad range of user demographics and preferences across the United States and international markets. The company was incorporated in 1986.

MTCH is classified within the Communication Services sector, specifically the Interactive Media & Services sub-industry. Online dating operators in this segment typically rely on a freemium business model, offering core matching and communication features for free while monetizing through paid premium subscriptions that unlock enhanced search, visibility, and interaction tools.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Tinder direct revenue declines as payer growth slows
  • Hinge drives total payer growth offsetting Tinder weakness
  • Share buybacks accelerate using strong free cash flow
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0
Net Income: 662.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.75 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 14.65% < 20% (prev 9.26%; Δ 5.39% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 1.08b > Net Income 662.7m
Net Debt (2.96b) to EBITDA (1.08b): 2.74 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.57 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (262.5m) vs 12m ago -3.48% < -2%
Gross Margin: 73.80% > 18% (prev 71.85%; Δ 1.95% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 84.84% > 50% (prev 88.71%; Δ -3.87% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 961.4m / Interest Expense TTM 154.8m)
Altman Z'' -2.01
A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.42b - Total Current Liabilities 906.6m) / Total Assets 4.41b
B: -1.32 (Retained Earnings -5.80b / Total Assets 4.41b)
C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 961.4m / Avg Total Assets 4.15b)
D: -0.05 (Book Value of Equity -218.1m / Total Liabilities 4.63b)
Altman-Z'' = -2.01 = D
Beneish M -3.22
DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 293.2m/323.3m, Revenue 3.52b/3.45b)
GMI: 0.97 (GM 71.85% / 73.80%)
AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.75)
SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 3.52b / 3.45b)
TATA: -0.10 (NI 662.7m - CFO 1.08b) / TA 4.41b)
Beneish M = -3.22 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MTCH shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.85 with a total of 2,160,530 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.05%, over one month by +11.94%, over three months by +17.64% and over the past year by +23.26%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.70 (which is 8.1% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).

Is MTCH a buy, sell or hold?

Match has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MTCH.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 13
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MTCH price?
Analysts Target Price 41.3 6.3%
Match (MTCH) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 9.06b (9.06b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.8282
P/E Forward = 10.01
P/S = 2.5746
P/B = 10.9696
P/EG = 0.3573
Revenue TTM = 3.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 961.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.08b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 423.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.0m
Net Debt = 2.96b USD (calculated: Debt 3.99b - CCE 1.02b)
Enterprise Value = 12.0b USD (9.06b + Debt 3.99b - CCE 1.02b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.21 (Ebit TTM 961.4m / Interest Expense TTM 154.8m)
EV/FCF = 11.79x (Enterprise Value 12.0b / FCF TTM 1.02b)
FCF Yield = 8.48% (FCF TTM 1.02b / Enterprise Value 12.0b)
FCF Margin = 28.97% (FCF TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 3.52b)
Net Margin = 18.83% (Net Income TTM 662.7m / Revenue TTM 3.52b)
Gross Margin = 73.80% ((Revenue TTM 3.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 922.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.62% (prev 74.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.73 (Enterprise Value 12.0b / Total Assets 4.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.88% (Interest Expense 154.8m / Debt 3.99b)
Taxrate = 17.83% (143.8m / 806.6m)
NOPAT = 789.9m (EBIT 961.4m * (1 - 17.83%))
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 1.42b / Total Current Liabilities 906.6m)
 Debt / Equity = -18.28 (negative equity) (Debt 3.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -218.1m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 2.74 (Net Debt 2.96b / EBITDA 1.08b)
Debt / FCF = 2.91 (Net Debt 2.96b / FCF TTM 1.02b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -231.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.97% (Net Income 662.7m / Total Assets 4.41b)
 RoE = -286.1% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 662.7m / Total Stockholder Equity -231.6m)
 RoCE = 28.97% (EBIT 961.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -231.6m + L.T.Debt 3.55b))
RoIC = 21.07% (NOPAT 789.9m / Invested Capital 3.75b)
WACC = 7.40% (E(9.06b)/V(13.1b) * Re(9.25%) + D(3.99b)/V(13.1b) * Rd(3.88%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -77.78 | Cagr: -4.07%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈929.1m ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈1.57b
[DCF] Fair Price = 88.41 (EV 23.6b - Net Debt 2.96b = Equity 20.6b / Shares 233.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 71.12 | EPS CAGR: 6.20% | SUE: 2.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 80.87 | Revenue CAGR: 2.49% | SUE: 1.99 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.87 | Chg30d=+0.73% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+18.5% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.20 | Chg30d=-1.01% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+8.4% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +9% (up=11, down=9)