(MTSI) MACOM Technology Solutions - Ratings and Ratios
RF, Microwave, Millimeter-Wave, Optoelectronic, Analog
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 44.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 71.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.22% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 |
| Alpha | 2.25 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.372 |
| Beta | 1.792 |
| Beta Downside | 1.653 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.09% |
| Mean DD | 9.21% |
| Median DD | 7.50% |
Description: MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions October 30, 2025
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (NASDAQ:MTSI) designs and manufactures analog semiconductor components-including ICs, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches, and subsystems-targeted at RF, microwave, millimeter-wave, and photonic applications. Its products are embedded in wireless base stations, optical networks, radar, satellite links, medical devices, test equipment, and data-center infrastructure, serving carriers, defense, industrial, and scientific customers worldwide.
Key quantitative signals (FY 2023): revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, GAAP EPS of $0.85, and R&D spending at ~13 % of sales, reflecting a focus on next-generation 5G/6G and photonic integration. The global 5G RF front-end market is expanding at an estimated 15 % CAGR, while defense budgets in the U.S. and allied nations are rising 6–8 % annually-both trends that directly boost demand for MACOM’s high-frequency and ruggedized solutions.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-54.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 58.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.19pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 90.98% (prev 109.0%; Δ -17.98pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 235.4m > Net Income -54.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (425.8m) to EBITDA (46.4m) ratio: 9.18 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.71 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (74.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.72% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 53.34% (prev 51.69%; Δ 1.65pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 50.13% (prev 41.56%; Δ 8.57pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -4.26 (EBITDA TTM 46.4m / Interest Expense TTM 5.52m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.97
| (A) 0.42 = (Total Current Assets 1.21b - Total Current Liabilities 325.1m) / Total Assets 2.10b |
| (B) -0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -240.1m / Total Assets 2.10b |
| (C) -0.01 = EBIT TTM -23.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.93b |
| (D) -0.30 = Book Value of Equity -235.0m / Total Liabilities 776.3m |
| Total Rating: 1.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 48.55
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.96% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.41 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.18 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -13.21)% |
| 7. RoE -4.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 78.91% |
| 9. EPS Trend 40.84% |
What is the price of MTSI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.06%, over one month by +5.56%, over three months by +35.29% and over the past year by +30.06%.
Is MTSI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MTSI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 187.8 | 7.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 187.8 | 7.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 230.9 | 31.8% |
MTSI Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
P/E Forward = 40.8163
P/S = 13.0389
P/B = 9.5034
P/EG = 0.83
Beta = 1.464
Revenue TTM = 967.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -23.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 46.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 339.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 167.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 538.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 425.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.36b USD (12.61b + Debt 538.0m - CCE 786.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.26 (Ebit TTM -23.5m / Interest Expense TTM 5.52m)
FCF Yield = 1.33% (FCF TTM 164.1m / Enterprise Value 12.36b)
FCF Margin = 16.96% (FCF TTM 164.1m / Revenue TTM 967.3m)
Net Margin = -5.60% (Net Income TTM -54.2m / Revenue TTM 967.3m)
Gross Margin = 53.34% ((Revenue TTM 967.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 451.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.61% (prev 53.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.88 (Enterprise Value 12.36b / Total Assets 2.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.33% (Interest Expense 1.79m / Debt 538.0m)
Taxrate = 19.29% (10.8m / 55.9m)
NOPAT = -19.0m (EBIT -23.5m * (1 - 19.29%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.71 (Total Current Assets 1.21b / Total Current Liabilities 325.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.41 (Debt 538.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.18 (Net Debt 425.8m / EBITDA 46.4m)
Debt / FCF = 2.60 (Net Debt 425.8m / FCF TTM 164.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.58% (Net Income -54.2m / Total Assets 2.10b)
RoE = -4.39% (Net Income TTM -54.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.24b)
RoCE = -1.49% (EBIT -23.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.24b + L.T.Debt 339.6m))
RoIC = -1.09% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -19.0m / Invested Capital 1.74b)
WACC = 12.11% (E(12.61b)/V(13.15b) * Re(12.62%) + D(538.0m)/V(13.15b) * Rd(0.33%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 12.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.57% ; FCFE base≈154.5m ; Y1≈163.8m ; Y5≈195.2m
Fair Price DCF = 23.84 (DCF Value 1.79b / Shares Outstanding 74.9m; 5y FCF grow 6.59% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 40.84 | EPS CAGR: 10.79% | SUE: 1.93 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 78.91 | Revenue CAGR: 14.03% | SUE: 0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+10 | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.22 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+14 | Growth EPS=+21.5% | Growth Revenue=+15.9%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=5.05 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+19.8% | Growth Revenue=+12.7%
Additional Sources for MTSI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle