(NCMI) National CineMedia - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US6353091076

Stock: Cinema Ads, Lobby Screens, Digital Ads, Trivia App

Total Rating 33
Risk 95
Buy Signal -0.30
Advertising Agencies » Advertising
Age: 19y
Market Cap: 339m
Avg Trading Vol: 906K USD
ATR: 3.95%
Peers RS (IBD): 44.44

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of NCMI over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-12": -0.62, "2021-03": -0.25, "2021-06": -0.28, "2021-09": -0.19, "2021-12": -0.05, "2022-03": -0.2, "2022-06": -0.01, "2022-09": -0.13, "2022-12": 0.03, "2023-03": -0.31, "2023-06": -0.7, "2023-09": -0.34, "2023-12": 0.24, "2024-03": -0.36, "2024-06": -0.09, "2024-09": -0.04, "2024-12": 0.269, "2025-03": -0.24, "2025-06": -0.11, "2025-09": 0.02,
EPS CAGR: 2.70%
EPS Trend: 16.3%
Last SUE: 0.22
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of NCMI over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-12: 15.7, 2021-03: 5.4, 2021-06: 14, 2021-09: 31.7, 2021-12: 63.5, 2022-03: 35.9, 2022-06: 67.1, 2022-09: 54.5, 2022-12: 91.7, 2023-03: 34.9, 2023-06: 14.8, 2023-09: 24.7, 2023-12: 90.8, 2024-03: 37.4, 2024-06: 54.7, 2024-09: 62.4, 2024-12: 86.3, 2025-03: 34.9, 2025-06: 51.8, 2025-09: 63.4,
Rev. CAGR: -0.04%
Rev. Trend: 8.1%
Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield 2.55%
Yield on Cost 5y 0.33%
Yield CAGR 5y -11.99%
Payout Consistency 73.6%
Payout Ratio -
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility 41.2%
Relative Tail Risk -10.1%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -1.26
Alpha -60.51
Character TTM
Beta 0.770
Beta Downside 0.658
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 59.61%
CAGR/Max DD 0.23

Description: NCMI National CineMedia December 27, 2025

National CineMedia (NCMI) operates the largest cinema-advertising network in North America through its Noovie entertainment platform, lobby-screen placements, and a suite of digital products such as NCM Boost, Boomerang, and the Noovie Trivia app. The company sells ad inventory to national, regional and local advertisers and extends its reach via long-term affiliate agreements with third-party theater circuits. Incorporated in 2006, NCMI is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show approximately $550 million in total revenue, with digital-screen sales contributing roughly 30 % of that total and growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~12 % since 2020. The business is sensitive to cinema attendance trends-U.S. box-office admissions rebounded to ~1.1 billion tickets in 2023 after pandemic lows, providing a base-case lift of ~5 % to ad impressions. A broader sector driver is the shift of out-of-home advertisers toward programmatic, data-rich screens, which is expected to increase average CPMs by 4-6 % annually across the industry.

For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing ValueRay’s detailed valuation model for NCMI.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income: -15.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.86 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 19.12% < 20% (prev 30.37%; Δ -11.25% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 32.1m > Net Income -15.1m
Net Debt (-18.9m) to EBITDA (25.2m): -0.75 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.90 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (94.3m) vs 12m ago -0.96% < -2%
Gross Margin: 42.22% > 18% (prev 0.41%; Δ 4180 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 48.34% > 50% (prev 46.63%; Δ 1.72% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -17.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 25.2m / Interest Expense TTM 800.0k)

Altman Z'' 4.24

A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 95.7m - Total Current Liabilities 50.5m) / Total Assets 451.9m
B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 213.5m / Total Assets 451.9m)
C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -14.1m / Avg Total Assets 489.0m)
D: 2.13 (Book Value of Equity 216.0m / Total Liabilities 101.4m)
Altman-Z'' Score: 4.24 = AA

Beneish M -3.26

DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 59.1m/69.5m, Revenue 236.4m/245.3m)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 42.22% / 41.21%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.75 / AQ_t-1 0.73)
SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 236.4m / 245.3m)
TATA: -0.10 (NI -15.1m - CFO 32.1m) / TA 451.9m)
Beneish M-Score: -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of NCMI shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.58 with a total of 566,761 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.83%, over one month by -10.95%, over three months by -12.86% and over the past year by -47.68%.

Is NCMI a buy, sell or hold?

National CineMedia has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NCMI.
  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NCMI price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 5.5 53.6%
Analysts Target Price 5.5 53.6%
ValueRay Target Price 3.1 -12.3%

NCMI Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026

P/E Forward = 120.4819
P/S = 1.4335
P/B = 0.9678
P/EG = -3.82
Revenue TTM = 236.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -14.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 11.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -18.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 319.8m USD (338.7m + Debt 11.0m - CCE 29.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -17.62 (Ebit TTM -14.1m / Interest Expense TTM 800.0k)
EV/FCF = 12.16x (Enterprise Value 319.8m / FCF TTM 26.3m)
FCF Yield = 8.22% (FCF TTM 26.3m / Enterprise Value 319.8m)
FCF Margin = 11.13% (FCF TTM 26.3m / Revenue TTM 236.4m)
Net Margin = -6.39% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Revenue TTM 236.4m)
Gross Margin = 42.22% ((Revenue TTM 236.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 136.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.01% (prev 16.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 319.8m / Total Assets 451.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.91% (Interest Expense 100.0k / Debt 11.0m)
Taxrate = 0.0% (0.0 / 1.60m)
NOPAT = -14.1m (EBIT -14.1m * (1 - 0.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.90 (Total Current Assets 95.7m / Total Current Liabilities 50.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 11.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 350.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.75 (Net Debt -18.9m / EBITDA 25.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.72 (Net Debt -18.9m / FCF TTM 26.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 370.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.09% (Net Income -15.1m / Total Assets 451.9m)
RoE = -4.07% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 370.6m)
RoCE = -3.70% (EBIT -14.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 370.6m + L.T.Debt 10.0m))
RoIC = -3.78% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -14.1m / Invested Capital 373.1m)
WACC = 8.50% (E(338.7m)/V(349.7m) * Re(8.75%) + D(11.0m)/V(349.7m) * Rd(0.91%) * (1-Tc(0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.35%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.96% ; FCFF base≈31.9m ; Y1≈21.0m ; Y5≈9.57m
Fair Price DCF = 2.03 (EV 171.9m - Net Debt -18.9m = Equity 190.8m / Shares 93.8m; r=8.50% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 16.31 | EPS CAGR: 2.70% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 8.08 | Revenue CAGR: -0.04% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.21 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-0.100 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+200.0% | Growth Revenue=+9.9%

Additional Sources for NCMI Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle