NMIH Stock Analysis: NMI Holdings | NASDAQ
Insurance - Specialty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.330m USD | 12M Return: 3.8% | US6292093050 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 34.9M
EPS Trend: 96.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
NMI Holdings, Inc. operates as a U.S. provider of private mortgage guaranty insurance, offering primary mortgage insurance and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. Its customer base spans a broad range of lenders, including national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
As a mid-cap financial stock listed on NASDAQ, NMI Holdings operates in the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry. Private mortgage insurance (PMI) protects lenders against losses when borrowers default on loans with low down payments, typically serving as a key enabler of homeownership for borrowers who cannot put down a 20% deposit.
- Mortgage origination volume declines as rates remain elevated
- Home price softening pressures insurance loss reserves and claims
- Persistency rates improve as borrowers refrain from refinancing
| Net Income: 392.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -30.82% < 20% (prev 66.71%; Δ -97.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 431.4m > Net Income 392.8m |
| Net Debt (344.7m) to EBITDA (541.8m): 0.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (76.1m) vs 12m ago -3.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.63% > 18% (prev 92.16%; Δ -3.53% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.13% > 50% (prev 18.57%; Δ 0.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 531.8m / Interest Expense TTM 28.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 172.4m - Total Current Liabilities 400.3m) / Total Assets 4.00b |
| B: 0.57 (Retained Earnings 2.27b / Total Assets 4.00b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 531.8m / Avg Total Assets 3.86b) |
| D: 2.08 (Book Value of Equity 2.70b / Total Liabilities 1.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.58 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 100.1m/146.8m, Revenue 739.4m/692.2m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 92.16% / 88.63%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.95 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 739.4m / 692.2m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 392.8m - CFO 431.4m) / TA 4.00b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.65 with a total of 567,869 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.97%, over one month by -2.30%, over three months by -14.94% and over the past year by +3.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 36.50 (which is 5.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
NMI Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NMIH.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 48 | 24.2% |
P/E Trailing = 8.7146
P/E Forward = 8.0321
P/S = 4.5566
P/B = 1.2218
P/EG = 1.66
Revenue TTM = 739.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 531.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 541.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 417.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.21m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 417.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 344.7m USD (calculated: Debt 417.0m - CCE 72.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.67b USD (3.33b + Debt 417.0m - CCE 72.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.67 (Ebit TTM 531.8m / Interest Expense TTM 28.5m)
EV/FCF = 8.66x (Enterprise Value 3.67b / FCF TTM 424.3m)
FCF Yield = 11.55% (FCF TTM 424.3m / Enterprise Value 3.67b)
FCF Margin = 57.38% (FCF TTM 424.3m / Revenue TTM 739.4m)
Net Margin = 53.13% (Net Income TTM 392.8m / Revenue TTM 739.4m)
Gross Margin = 88.63% ((Revenue TTM 739.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 84.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.48% (prev 93.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 3.67b / Total Assets 4.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.83% (Interest Expense 28.5m / Debt 417.0m)
Taxrate = 21.96% (110.5m / 503.3m)
NOPAT = 415.0m (EBIT 531.8m * (1 - 21.96%))
Current Ratio = 0.43 (Total Current Assets 172.4m / Total Current Liabilities 400.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 417.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.64 (Net Debt 344.7m / EBITDA 541.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.81 (Net Debt 344.7m / FCF TTM 424.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.16% (Net Income 392.8m / Total Assets 4.00b)
RoE = 14.78% (Net Income TTM 392.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.66b)
RoCE = 17.29% (EBIT 531.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.66b + L.T.Debt 417.0m))
RoIC = 11.63% (NOPAT 415.0m / Invested Capital 3.57b)
WACC = 6.70% (E(3.33b)/V(3.75b) * Re(6.87%) + D(417.0m)/V(3.75b) * Rd(6.83%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.51 | Cagr: -2.89%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.63% ; FCFF base≈409.3m ; Y1≈443.8m ; Y5≈548.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 107.0 (EV 8.40b - Net Debt 344.7m = Equity 8.05b / Shares 75.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 9.67% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.16 | EPS CAGR: 9.94% | SUE: -1.39 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.09 | Revenue CAGR: 9.13% | SUE: -0.38 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=-0.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.28 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+7.4% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.51 | Chg30d=+0.59% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+3.7% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -55% (up=1, down=7)