(NPCE) Neuropace - Overview
Stock: Implantable Neurostimulator, Cortical Leads, Depth Leads, Patient Remote Monitor
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.49 |
| Alpha | -6.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.066 |
| Beta Downside | 1.253 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.29% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.85 |
Description: NPCE Neuropace December 29, 2025
NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE) is a U.S.-based medical-device firm that commercializes the RNS System, a closed-loop neurostimulation platform designed to detect and abort seizures in patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. The system comprises an implanted neurostimulator, cortical strip and depth leads, a patient-facing remote monitor, and a suite of software tools-including a physician tablet, patient data-management portal, and the nSight Platform-for longitudinal monitoring and care coordination.
Revenue is heavily weighted toward device sales, with the majority generated from initial implant procedures and a smaller, recurring stream from replacement surgeries and subscription-based remote-monitoring services. In Q3 2024, NPCE reported $71 million in total revenue, a 12% year-over-year increase driven primarily by higher RNS system shipments (≈ 1,200 units) and a 15% rise in remote-monitor subscription fees. The company remains unprofitable, posting a net loss of $28 million for the quarter, reflecting ongoing R&D spend and the high cost of clinical trial enrollment.
Key economic drivers for NeuroPace include the expanding U.S. epilepsy market-estimated at > $2 billion annually-and favorable Medicare reimbursement trends for neuromodulation therapies, which have been tightening after recent CMS policy updates. A sector-wide shift toward personalized, data-rich implantable devices also supports higher adoption rates, as clinicians seek alternatives to lifelong pharmacotherapy.
From a valuation standpoint, analysts typically apply a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple (≈ 7× projected 2025 sales) and adjust for the company’s cash burn and pipeline risk. The base-rate probability of FDA approval for any next-generation neurostimulation product is roughly 30% based on historical neuromodulation device filings, which should be factored into any upside scenario.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation, you may find the ValueRay platform’s NPCE model worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -24.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 79.82% < 20% (prev 88.70%; Δ -8.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.15 > 3% & CFO -16.3m > Net Income -24.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 4.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.1m) vs 12m ago 12.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.77% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7603 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 93.21% > 50% (prev 79.39%; Δ 13.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -15.2m / Interest Expense TTM 7.38m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.71 (Total Current Assets 95.3m - Total Current Liabilities 19.6m) / Total Assets 107.3m |
| B: -5.13 (Retained Earnings -549.7m / Total Assets 107.3m) |
| C: -0.16 (EBIT TTM -16.6m / Avg Total Assets 101.8m) |
| D: -6.19 (Book Value of Equity -549.7m / Total Liabilities 88.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -19.68 = D |
Beneish M -3.22
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 14.9m/11.6m, Revenue 94.9m/76.5m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 76.77% / 73.83%) |
| AQI: 0.51 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 94.9m / 76.5m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -24.0m - CFO -16.3m) / TA 107.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.22 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NPCE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.51%, over one month by -7.61%, over three months by +16.51% and over the past year by +25.16%.
Is NPCE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NPCE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.5 | 24.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.5 | 24.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.5 | 5.5% |
NPCE Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/B = 29.1024
Revenue TTM = 94.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -16.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -15.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 58.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.05m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 71.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 50.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 550.1m USD (538.9m + Debt 71.2m - CCE 60.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.25 (Ebit TTM -16.6m / Interest Expense TTM 7.38m)
EV/FCF = -33.17x (Enterprise Value 550.1m / FCF TTM -16.6m)
FCF Yield = -3.01% (FCF TTM -16.6m / Enterprise Value 550.1m)
FCF Margin = -17.48% (FCF TTM -16.6m / Revenue TTM 94.9m)
Net Margin = -25.28% (Net Income TTM -24.0m / Revenue TTM 94.9m)
Gross Margin = 76.77% ((Revenue TTM 94.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 22.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.39% (prev 77.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.13 (Enterprise Value 550.1m / Total Assets 107.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.37% (Interest Expense 978.0k / Debt 71.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -13.1m (EBIT -16.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.86 (Total Current Assets 95.3m / Total Current Liabilities 19.6m)
Debt / Equity = 3.84 (Debt 71.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 50.5m / EBITDA -15.2m)
Debt / FCF = -3.05 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 50.5m / FCF TTM -16.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -23.57% (Net Income -24.0m / Total Assets 107.3m)
RoE = -136.6% (Net Income TTM -24.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.6m)
RoCE = -21.76% (EBIT -16.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 17.6m + L.T.Debt 58.7m))
RoIC = -17.10% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -13.1m / Invested Capital 76.7m)
WACC = 8.82% (E(538.9m)/V(610.1m) * Re(9.84%) + D(71.2m)/V(610.1m) * Rd(1.37%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 13.03%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -16.6m)
EPS Correlation: 93.19 | EPS CAGR: 68.68% | SUE: 3.85 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 97.47 | Revenue CAGR: 27.51% | SUE: 3.90 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.22 | Chg30d=-0.024 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.75 | Chg30d=-0.142 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-4.9% | Growth Revenue=-0.4%