NSSC Stock Analysis: NAPCO Security Technologies | NASDAQ
Security & Protection Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.136m USD | 12M Return: -25.2% | US6304021057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.5M
EPS Trend: 67.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) develops, manufactures, and sells electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental customers in the U.S. and internationally. Its product portfolio spans access control systems, intrusion and fire alarm systems, electronic and mechanical door locking devices, video surveillance systems, and school security products, with the company also reselling select peripheral equipment sourced from other manufacturers. Napco markets and sells its products through independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
Operating within the electronic equipment and instruments sub-industry, Napco serves the broader physical security market, which is driven by rising demand for access management, intrusion detection, and video monitoring across both commercial and residential end markets. Its go-to-market model relies on a two-step distribution channel, selling to third-party dealers and installers rather than directly to end users, which is a common structure in the fragmented security products industry.
- School security product sales accelerate amid heightened campus safety demand
- Access control and door locking margins expand on product mix shift
- Distributor channel inventory levels normalize after pandemic-era buildup
| Net Income: 43.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 86.26% < 20% (prev 79.59%; Δ 6.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 52.3m > Net Income 43.9m |
| Net Debt (-129.5m) to EBITDA (48.3m): -2.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.9m) vs 12m ago 0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.71% > 18% (prev 55.82%; Δ 3.90% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 92.87% > 50% (prev 90.69%; Δ 2.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.76 (Total Current Assets 203.4m - Total Current Liabilities 28.1m) / Total Assets 231.5m |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 228.3m / Total Assets 231.5m) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 46.1m / Avg Total Assets 218.7m) |
| D: 5.95 (Book Value of Equity 198.2m / Total Liabilities 33.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 15.85 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 29.2m/32.6m, Revenue 203.1m/186.8m) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 55.82% / 59.71%) |
| AQI: 0.67 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 203.1m / 186.8m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 43.9m - CFO 52.3m) / TA 231.5m) |
| Beneish M = -3.37 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.62 with a total of 290,187 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.56%, over one month by -15.41%, over three months by -22.32% and over the past year by -25.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.80 (which is 5.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
NAPCO Security Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NSSC.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 44.3 | 44.8% |
P/E Trailing = 25.8293
P/E Forward = 24.6914
P/S = 5.5943
P/B = 6.0038
P/EG = 16.27
Revenue TTM = 203.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 46.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 48.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.14m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.18m already included)
Net Debt = -129.5m USD (calculated: Debt 5.14m - CCE 134.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.01b USD (1.14b + Debt 5.14m - CCE 134.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 46.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 20.10x (Enterprise Value 1.01b / FCF TTM 50.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 50.1m / Enterprise Value 1.01b)
FCF Margin = 24.66% (FCF TTM 50.1m / Revenue TTM 203.1m)
Net Margin = 21.60% (Net Income TTM 43.9m / Revenue TTM 203.1m)
Gross Margin = 59.71% ((Revenue TTM 203.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 81.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.73% (prev 61.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.35 (Enterprise Value 1.01b / Total Assets 231.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.14m)
Taxrate = 13.19% (6.67m / 50.5m)
NOPAT = 40.0m (EBIT 46.1m * (1 - 13.19%))
Current Ratio = 7.23 (Total Current Assets 203.4m / Total Current Liabilities 28.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 5.14m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 198.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.68 (Net Debt -129.5m / EBITDA 48.3m)
Debt / FCF = -2.58 (Net Debt -129.5m / FCF TTM 50.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 187.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.06% (Net Income 43.9m / Total Assets 231.5m)
RoE = 23.34% (Net Income TTM 43.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 187.9m)
RoCE = 22.68% (EBIT 46.1m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 231.5m - Current Liab 28.1m))
RoIC = 20.72% (NOPAT 40.0m / Invested Capital 193.2m)
WACC = 8.70% (E(1.14b)/V(1.14b) * Re(8.74%) + D(5.14m)/V(1.14b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.50 | Cagr: -1.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.82% ; FCFF base≈50.7m ; Y1≈49.7m ; Y5≈50.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.36 (EV 741.9m - Net Debt -129.5m = Equity 871.4m / Shares 35.8m; r=8.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -2.74% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.06 | EPS CAGR: 7.28% | SUE: -0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.04 | Revenue CAGR: 4.88% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-6.90% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-5.64% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=1.53 | Chg30d=-5.36% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-4.4% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=1.76 | Chg30d=-2.31% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+15.2% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)