NSSC Stock Analysis: NAPCO Security Technologies | NASDAQ
Security & Protection Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.260m USD | 12M Return: -6.1% | US6304021057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.7M
EPS Trend: 67.0%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 89.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) designs, manufactures, and sells electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental customers in the U.S. and internationally. Its product portfolio covers access control systems, intrusion and fire alarm systems, electronic and mechanical door locking devices, and video surveillance systems, supported by peripheral and related equipment bought from third parties and resold. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
As a manufacturer in the electronic equipment & instruments sub-industry, NAPCO operates a B2B distribution model, selling primarily through independent distributors, dealers, and security equipment installers rather than directly to end users. Its revenue is tied to demand across multiple end markets, including recurring activity from school security products and the integration of cellular communicators into alarm panels, which aligns with the broader shift toward connected, IP-based security infrastructure.
- School security segment grows on state safety mandates
- StarLink cellular communicators expand recurring revenue mix
- Channel inventory destocking pressures near-term shipments
| Net Income: 43.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 81.82% < 20% (prev 76.20%; Δ 5.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 61.1m > Net Income 43.0m |
| Net Debt (-132.4m) to EBITDA (52.0m): -2.54 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.9m) vs 12m ago -1.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.21% > 18% (prev 55.63%; Δ 3.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 92.63% > 50% (prev 91.66%; Δ 0.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 208.0m - Total Current Liabilities 42.5m) / Total Assets 238.7m |
| B: 0.93 (Retained Earnings 221.4m / Total Assets 238.7m) |
| C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 49.8m / Avg Total Assets 218.4m) |
| D: 4.01 (Book Value of Equity 191.0m / Total Liabilities 47.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 13.31 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 36.0m/30.1m, Revenue 202.3m/181.6m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 55.63% / 59.21%) |
| AQI: 0.65 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 202.3m / 181.6m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 43.0m - CFO 61.1m) / TA 238.7m) |
| Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 35.65 with a total of 390,878 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.22%, over one month by -6.41%, over three months by -1.11% and over the past year by -6.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.00 (which is 7.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
NAPCO Security Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NSSC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 50.7 | 42.1% |
P/E Trailing = 29.3667
P/E Forward = 24.6914
P/S = 6.2303
P/B = 6.7866
P/EG = 16.27
Revenue TTM = 202.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 49.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 52.0m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.18m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.22m already included)
Net Debt = -132.4m USD (calculated: Debt 5.18m - CCE 137.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.13b USD (1.26b + Debt 5.18m - CCE 137.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 49.8m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 19.05x (Enterprise Value 1.13b / FCF TTM 59.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.25% (FCF TTM 59.2m / Enterprise Value 1.13b)
FCF Margin = 29.27% (FCF TTM 59.2m / Revenue TTM 202.3m)
Net Margin = 21.27% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Revenue TTM 202.3m)
Gross Margin = 59.21% ((Revenue TTM 202.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 82.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.31% (prev 59.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.73 (Enterprise Value 1.13b / Total Assets 238.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.18m)
Taxrate = 13.64% (6.79m / 49.8m)
NOPAT = 43.0m (EBIT 49.8m * (1 - 13.64%))
Current Ratio = 4.90 (Total Current Assets 208.0m / Total Current Liabilities 42.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 5.18m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 191.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.54 (Net Debt -132.4m / EBITDA 52.0m)
Debt / FCF = -2.24 (Net Debt -132.4m / FCF TTM 59.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 182.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.70% (Net Income 43.0m / Total Assets 238.7m)
RoE = 23.59% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 182.4m)
RoCE = 25.39% (EBIT 49.8m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 238.7m - Current Liab 42.5m))
RoIC = 23.12% (NOPAT 43.0m / Invested Capital 186.1m)
WACC = 9.21% (E(1.26b)/V(1.27b) * Re(9.25%) + D(5.18m)/V(1.27b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.31 | Cagr: -1.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.23% ; FCFF base≈56.1m ; Y1≈64.3m ; Y5≈94.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.27 (EV 1.24b - Net Debt -132.4m = Equity 1.37b / Shares 35.8m; r=9.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 66.99 | EPS CAGR: 7.25% | SUE: 2.04 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 89.89 | Revenue CAGR: 4.69% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-3.90% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-0.85% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2027-06-30): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=-0.20% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+1.0% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
EPS next Year (2028-06-30): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.7% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)