NSSC Stock Analysis: NAPCO Security Technologies | NASDAQ
Security & Protection Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.353m USD | 12M Return: 29.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.3M
EPS Trend: 67.0%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 90.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) designs, manufactures, and sells electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental customers in the U.S. and internationally. Its product portfolio covers access control systems, intrusion and fire alarm systems, electronic and mechanical door locking devices, and video surveillance systems, supported by peripheral and related equipment bought from third parties and resold. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
As a manufacturer in the electronic equipment & instruments sub-industry, NAPCO operates a B2B distribution model, selling primarily through independent distributors, dealers, and security equipment installers rather than directly to end users. Its revenue is tied to demand across multiple end markets, including recurring activity from school security products and the integration of cellular communicators into alarm panels, which aligns with the broader shift toward connected, IP-based security infrastructure.
- School security segment grows on state safety mandates
- StarLink cellular communicators expand recurring revenue mix
- Channel inventory destocking pressures near-term shipments
| Net Income: 36.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 77.98% < 20% (prev 71.61%; Δ 6.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 58.1m > Net Income 36.9m |
| Net Debt (-119.7m) to EBITDA (45.4m): -2.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.7m) vs 12m ago -1.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.97% > 18% (prev 56.33%; Δ 0.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.54% > 50% (prev 94.95%; Δ 0.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 192.8m - Total Current Liabilities 39.0m) / Total Assets 222.0m |
| B: 0.94 (Retained Earnings 209.0m / Total Assets 222.0m) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 43.1m / Avg Total Assets 206.4m) |
| D: 4.02 (Book Value of Equity 177.8m / Total Liabilities 44.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 13.24 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 31.3m/25.2m, Revenue 197.2m/181.2m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 56.33% / 56.97%) |
| AQI: 0.54 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 197.2m / 181.2m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 36.9m - CFO 58.1m) / TA 222.0m) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.08 with a total of 343,160 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.26%, over one month by +9.22%, over three months by -10.22% and over the past year by +29.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 36.60 (which is 3.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
NAPCO Security Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NSSC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 50.3 | 32.2% |
P/E Trailing = 36.7573
P/E Forward = 24.6914
P/S = 6.8799
P/B = 7.6325
P/EG = 16.27
Revenue TTM = 197.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 43.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 45.4m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.22m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.22m already included)
Net Debt = -119.7m USD (calculated: Debt 5.22m - CCE 125.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.23b USD (1.35b + Debt 5.22m - CCE 125.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 43.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 21.87x (Enterprise Value 1.23b / FCF TTM 56.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.57% (FCF TTM 56.4m / Enterprise Value 1.23b)
FCF Margin = 28.58% (FCF TTM 56.4m / Revenue TTM 197.2m)
Net Margin = 18.70% (Net Income TTM 36.9m / Revenue TTM 197.2m)
Gross Margin = 56.97% ((Revenue TTM 197.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 84.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.98% (prev 58.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.55 (Enterprise Value 1.23b / Total Assets 222.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.22m)
Taxrate = 14.49% (6.25m / 43.1m)
NOPAT = 36.9m (EBIT 43.1m * (1 - 14.49%))
Current Ratio = 4.95 (Total Current Assets 192.8m / Total Current Liabilities 39.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 5.22m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 177.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.64 (Net Debt -119.7m / EBITDA 45.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.12 (Net Debt -119.7m / FCF TTM 56.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 176.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.87% (Net Income 36.9m / Total Assets 222.0m)
RoE = 20.86% (Net Income TTM 36.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 176.8m)
RoCE = 23.57% (EBIT 43.1m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 222.0m - Current Liab 39.0m))
RoIC = 21.30% (NOPAT 36.9m / Invested Capital 173.2m)
WACC = 9.56% (E(1.35b)/V(1.36b) * Re(9.60%) + D(5.22m)/V(1.36b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.91 | Cagr: -1.61%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.62% ; FCFF base≈54.4m ; Y1≈59.0m ; Y5≈72.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.14 (EV 921.5m - Net Debt -119.7m = Equity 1.04b / Shares 35.7m; r=9.56% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.64% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.05 | EPS CAGR: 7.55% | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 90.42 | Revenue CAGR: 4.31% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-1.28% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=+1.36% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+17.9% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=+0.62% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+10.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)